Thursday, April 17, 2025

17: Trump's Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

‘Simply Bad Business’: Corporate Gloom Rises Over Trump’s Tariffs Global markets are bouncing back, but a new survey of company chiefs finds that they’re on edge and are looking to cut back on investment.
James Carville: How to Turn Trump’s Economic Chaos Against Him The problem is that smoke and mirrors only work until you screw up so hard that no act of lunacy can pull the American people’s attention elsewhere. And boy, did the president just screw up royally. ......... In what will certainly be recorded as one of the most ignorant acts of political leadership in American history, the president of the United States has now willfully damaged the global economy with his tariff chaos. Not only was this an act of economic warfare, it has broken the cardinal rule in American politics: Never destabilize the economy. With it, the Trump administration is causing enormous damage to itself — and there can be no more distraction from this naked truth. ............ Now, Democrats have an opportunity to allow the Republicans to edge closer to collapse as the party in full control of Washington — let’s please not become the story again and get in their way. .......... Prices could rise sharply, consumer spending may well dry up and we are already seeing evidence of surging mortgage rates and a weakened bond market. The Trump administration will not be competent enough to dig us out. The path to stabilizing and strengthening the country starts when Democrats can take back the economic narrative from the Republican Party and persuade the majority of Americans to close the book on the Trump chaos. ............. focus on the economic foundations that matter to Americans most. My fellow Democrats, it’s time we transform our party into a projector for the economic pain of the American people. ............ President Trump won the White House on an overt promise to bring down prices. Let’s not forget his most oft-repeated claims: “Starting on Day 1, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods” or: “Prices will come down. You just watch. They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.” ........... The cost of trucks and vehicles is set to shoot up thousands of dollars. .......... The most direct hit to working people’s pocketbooks will always be from the cost of daily goods. Making it clear that Mr. Trump and the Republicans willingly broke this promise should be in every ad, every podcast talking point, every message we send from now until the midterms. ........ it’s not about the stock market, it’s about 401(k)s. With six in 10 Americans lacking the savings to cover even a $1,000 emergency expense, Democrats cannot afford to hinge our economic narrative on the rise and fall of a market for the privileged. ........... the tariffs are a poison dagger for those who have saved and vested into their 401(k) their entire lives, just to see it depleted by the reckless actions of the president. ............. You can bet certain retirees are now living in a panic, pausing home renovations and big-ticket purchases as their life savings start to drain by the day. If this continues, many retirees will have to go back into the work force, spending what should be their comfortable years grinding in the office as if they are in their 30s. This is a real, substantial pain that will be felt by the Americans who are the least deserving of it.

As it turns out, older voters are also some of the most reliable, powering Trump’s re-election.

Democrats, uplift their stories and connect their pain to the president. Do not focus on the market or the daily percentage drop in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks. .......... Record the story of Nicholas Gilbert, a dairy farmer upended by the tariffs — and localize it to Wisconsin. Focus on the Latino and Black men who supported his previous election, and take it to Georgia or Arizona. Go on influencer networks and podcasts talking about the looming increase in car prices and the fact that the president exploded Nintendo’s plans for the Switch 2. .......... For the entirety of his tenure in American politics, Donald Trump for better or worse has lived on by the grace of the American people’s faith in his economic leadership.
Now it is plain and clear, just as with his failures in Atlantic City or with Trump University, that Mr. Trump never had any idea what he was doing all along.

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

Long Live Comrade Trump’s Tariffs
I’m a Columbia Professor. Here’s the Really Disheartening Part of This Mess.
Will Americans Eat a $100 Tariff on Shein Packages? The Trump administration’s plan to add steep fees to packages from China will deal a blow to Temu, Shein and some TikTok Shop sellers, worrying American consumers.

I Have Never Been More Afraid for My Country’s Future For good measure, Trump added about these miners: “You could give them a penthouse on Fifth Avenue and a different kind of a job and they’d be unhappy. They want to mine coal; that’s what they love to do.” .............. when he singles out coal miners for praise while he tries to zero out development of clean-tech jobs from his budget — in 2023, the U.S. wind energy industry employed approximately 130,000 workers, while the solar industry employed 280,000 — it suggests that Trump is trapped in a right-wing woke ideology that doesn’t recognize green manufacturing jobs as “real” jobs. .......... Trump ran for another term not because he had any clue how to transform America for the 21st century. He ran in order to stay out of jail and to get revenge on those who, with real evidence, had tried to hold him accountable to the law. I doubt he has ever spent five minutes studying the work force of the future. ......... He then returned to the White House, his head still filled with ideas out of the 1970s. There he launched a trade war with no allies and no serious preparation — which is why he changes his tariffs almost every day — and no understanding of how much the global economy is now a complex ecosystem in which products are assembled from components from multiple countries. And then he has this war carried out by a commerce secretary who thinks millions of Americans are dying to replace Chinese workers “screwing in little screws to make iPhones.” ..........

this farce is about to touch every American.

By attacking our closest allies — Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and the European Union — and our biggest rival, China, at the same time he makes clear he favors Russia over Ukraine and prefers climate-destroying energy industries over future-oriented ones, the planet be damned. Trump is triggering a serious loss of global confidence in America. ........... The world is now seeing Trump’s America for exactly what it is becoming: a rogue state led by an impulsive strongman disconnected from the rule of law and other constitutional American principles and values. ......... bond yields keep spiking and the dollar keeps weakening — classic signs of a loss of confidence that does not have to be large to have a large impact on our whole economy. .......... the European Union’s governing “commission is issuing burner phones and basic laptops to some U.S.-bound staff to avoid the risk of espionage, a measure traditionally reserved for trips to China.” It doesn’t trust the rule of law in America anymore. ........ I heard this repeatedly in China a few weeks ago — that maybe it’s not a good idea any longer to study in America. The reason: They don’t know when their kids might be arbitrarily arrested, when their family members might get deported to Salvadoran prisons. ......... somewhere out there, as you read this, is someone like Steve Jobs’s Syrian birth father, who came to our shores in the 1950s to get a Ph.D. at the University of Wisconsin, someone who was planning to study in America but is now looking to go to Canada or Europe instead. ......... You shrink all those things — our ability to attract the world’s most energetic and entrepreneurial immigrants, which allowed us to be the world’s center for innovation; our power to draw in a disproportionate share of the world’s savings, which allowed us to live beyond our means for decades; and our reputation for upholding the rule of law — and over time you end up with an America that will be less prosperous, less respected and increasingly isolated. ............ but isn’t China also still digging coal? Yes, it is, but with a long-term plan to phase it out and to use robots to do the dangerous and health-sapping work of miners. .......... While Trump is doing his “weave” — rambling about whatever strikes him at the moment as good policy — China is weaving long-term plans. ........... In 2015, a year before Trump became president, China’s prime minister at the time, Li Keqiang, unveiled a forward-looking growth plan called “Made in China 2025.” It began by asking, what will be the growth engine for the 21st century? Beijing then made huge investments in the elements of that engine’s components so Chinese companies could dominate them at home and abroad. We’re talking clean energy, batteries, electric vehicles and autonomous cars, robots, new materials, machine tools, drones, quantum computing and artificial intelligence. ........... China has become “the leading country globally for research output in the database in chemistry, earth and environmental sciences and physical sciences, and is second for biological sciences and health sciences.” ........... He is undermining our sacred rule of law, he is tossing away our allies, he is undermining the value of the dollar and he is shredding any hope of national unity. He’s even got Canadians now boycotting Las Vegas because they don’t like to be told we will soon own them. ...... If Trump doesn’t stop his rogue behavior, he’s going to destroy all the things that made America strong, respected and prosperous.

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

Immigration: The Edge That Made America Great

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption

Immigration: The Edge That Made America Great

America is often called a nation of immigrants, and not without reason. No other country in modern history has been shaped so powerfully, consistently, and positively by immigration as the United States. From its founding, waves of people from around the world—fleeing persecution, poverty, war, and seeking opportunity—have come to its shores and helped build its economy, its culture, and its global influence.

A History of Open Arms—At Least for Some

Historically, immigration from Europe was strikingly easy. For much of the 19th and early 20th centuries, if you were European, all you had to do was show up. You were often granted papers at arrival. Ellis Island was more processing station than barrier. The rules were far looser, and the economic logic was clear: America needed workers. And it got them—by the millions.

That labor built railroads, dug mines, manned factories, and raised cities. Immigration didn’t just help America grow; it powered that growth.

Immigration Is an Economic Superpower

The American economy is the largest in the world not in spite of immigration, but because of it. Immigrants have filled labor shortages, fueled innovation, created companies, and contributed at every level of society. Japan, with its famously tight immigration policies, is a cautionary tale: an aging, shrinking population and a stagnant economy. America, meanwhile, remains dynamic precisely because it renews itself through immigration.

Yet today, the debate has been poisoned by fear, misinformation, and political rhetoric. Calls for mass deportations defy economic, logistical, and even legal reality. California’s farm valley, for example, cannot function without undocumented laborers. Mass deportation would collapse industries overnight. The economy would suffer. And due process is already proving a legal obstacle to large-scale removals.

The Humanity in Reform

Most who walk across the southern border just want to work. And most want to return home after earning. A common-sense response isn’t cruelty—it’s a five-year work visa. Keep people documented, out of the shadows, and contributing legally. Doing so also improves public safety. Data consistently shows immigrants—especially undocumented ones—commit crimes at lower rates than native-born citizens. The reason is simple: they want to avoid attention, not cause trouble.

This isn’t about letting people “get away” with breaking the law. Not all laws are equal. We don’t jail people for speeding. And many immigration violations are civil, not criminal. The question isn’t just about legality—it’s about humanity, economic logic, and national interest.

A Win-Win Future

Automatic green cards upon graduation for international students are another obvious win. The U.S. trains some of the brightest minds in the world—then sends them home to compete against it. Letting them stay benefits America’s innovation economy and strengthens ties to other nations. Immigrants send money home, invest in their communities, and become lifelong goodwill ambassadors for America.

Yes, Europe’s immigration levels may not be politically feasible today. But a middle ground is. Because there is no such thing as an illegal human being. And the assault on immigration is, in many ways, an assault on America’s greatest economic edge.

The humane response is the smart response. Let’s get people out of the shadows. Let’s choose common sense. Let’s choose compassion. Let’s choose to keep America strong.

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption