The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Each one is in a battleground state. Votes from people there will matter a lot — and offer Joe Biden several paths to victory. ....... Polls now show Joe Biden with a surprising opportunity to capture Sun Belt suburbs that have voted reliably Republican for decades. .......... Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Iowa. .......... Trump is in serious trouble. .......... Philadelphia and Pittsburgh hog the spotlight, but Pennsylvania’s electoral ground zero might be its far northwest corner. ............ A February Mercyhurst University poll showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 48 percent to 44 percent in Erie County, and that was before Covid-19 made headlines. ............ Everything is bigger in Texas — including the suburban backlash against Mr. Trump — and the political metamorphosis underway in Dallas’s white-collar northern suburbs is happening at a dizzying pace. ......... Despite Texas’s old Wild West stereotype, the state now has one of the most metropolitan and diverse electorates in the country — and Mr. Trump’s erosion in its sprawling suburbs explains Mr. Biden’s surprising opportunity. .......... Perhaps the most widely cited bellwether in the country, Vigo, which includes Terre Haute, is the only county in America that has voted for the winner of every presidential race since 1956. But it may lose that status in 2020: In 2016, it broke for Mr. Trump by a whopping 15 points, and it’s easy to see him carrying it again this fall, even if he loses the presidency.
Goldman Sachs: A Democratic sweep would mean faster economic recovery polls "suggest a 'blue wave' in which Democrats gain unified control of Washington is becoming more likely" ............ Moody's Analytics found that Biden's economic proposals, if enacted, would create 7.4 million more jobs than would Trump's. The economy would return to full employment in the second half of 2022, nearly two years earlier than under Trump's plan, Moody's said.
Cuomo Imposes Tight Virus Rules on Areas Hit by Spikes Across State The plan was intended to curb the outbreak in areas, many with large populations of Orthodox Jews, that have had sharp increases in cases.
Covid-19 could be the start of a better era for women who work The pandemic has been tough on female workers but it presents a chance to fix long-ignored problems ........ He wanted to persuade married women (and, crucially, their husbands) that they could go to work without threatening the natural order of things. ............ Take Japan. Although known for its patriarchal society of “salarymen” and housewives, Japan’s female employment rate had been rising before the pandemic. But like the “white glove girls”, many Japanese women were not admitted into the heart of corporate Japan. The majority had “non-regular” contracts with less security and fewer benefits. These jobs were the first to be shed when the pandemic hit. Many mothers, especially in Japan where regular jobs are characterised by long hours and presenteeism, have had to trade pay and security for flexibility. .......... Yet the pandemic has also brought hope. Forced to experiment with remote working, Japanese companies from Fujitsu to Hitachi have realised workers can be just as productive, probably more so, without long hours in the office. Japanese parents, in particular, are likely to become less tolerant of employers who cling to the past. ........ “Old habits die hard, but I hope Covid will mark a watershed moment for Japan’s work culture, which is a far more insidious killer” ......... a redesign of traditional jobs — more trust, less presenteeism — is likely to benefit parents everywhere. .......... the fragile attachment of American women to the labour market is the consequence of the country’s woeful caregiving infrastructure. “Just like we need roads to drive down to get to work or deliver our goods to market, we need a childcare and caregiving infrastructure that allows people to . . . go to work.” The US does not provide statutory paid parental leave to all employees, unlike almost every other country, while affordable childcare is in short supply ........... a majority of both Democratic and Republican voters now support the idea of higher congressional funding for childcare. Whoever wins next month’s US presidential election, improving childcare should be a political and economic no-brainer. ...... Women aren’t just working for “second car” money these days — the fate of the economy depends on them.
Donald Trump is risking a Covid election blowout If the race stays focused on the pandemic, polls suggest Joe Biden will win ......... It follows that Mr Trump must change the subject or take radical steps to make Americans trust his pandemic-management skills. He has instead chosen to do something solipsistic — tell Americans the pathogen can be defeated by sheer force of will. This is a rash mix. It is further depressing his poll ratings on coronavirus while making it harder for him to change the subject. Mr Trump’s decision to pull out of next week’s presidential debate after organisers said it would be held remotely because of Covid concerns only reinforces that. .......... Joe Biden’s poll lead over Mr Trump has hit double digits in Florida where a lot of retirees live ............. His averaged overall national lead is now near double digits. Even if those margins were halved, Mr Trump would be facing a heavy defeat. .......... So why is he pushing on a failing strategy? Much has been made of the fact that Mr Trump is taking a steroid, dexamethasone, which can cause wild mood swings. Doubtless, the drug can induce euphoria. But there is little to differentiate Mr Trump’s post-hospital and pre-hospital behaviour. He did not suddenly chance on the notion of issuing torrents of capitalised tweets after checking out of Walter Reed. Nor did the idea of publicly stripping off his mask come in the wake of his drug treatment. He has been taunting social distancers all year. The only seeming effect of Mr Trump’s treatment is that he became even more like himself. ............ America’s much-promised V-shaped recovery floundered on the failure to flatten the coronavirus curve. Mr Trump did not help matters this week when he pulled out of talks for another coronavirus relief bill. That dealt a heavy blow to the prospect of more relief for ordinary Americans before the election. ...... Mr Trump has thus built himself a maze. He wants Americans to be afraid of something that does not seem particularly lethal — the radical left — yet be unafraid of a disease that has so far claimed more than 200,000 American lives. It does not feel like a winning strategy.
