Saturday, April 09, 2016

The New Democrat Philosophy Vs The Liberal Philosophy

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont
U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
English: Official White House photo of Preside...
English: Official White House photo of President Bill Clinton, President of the United States. Русский: Президент США Билл Клинтон,официальное фото Белого Дома. Ελληνικά: Επίσημη φωτογραφία Λευκού Οίκου του Προέδρου Μπιλ Κλίντον, Προέδρου των ΗΠΑ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The Clintons came to power in 1992 selling what was known as the New Democrat philosophy. It was about moving to the center. It was ditching some of what was called the liberal baggage, both socially and on economic matters. Dems were also going to be tough on crime, Dems were also going to cut taxes. The Democrats had been out of power for so long, so consistently that a desperate party went for it. And Bill Clinton won two elections. It is true the black community also was lifted as the rising tide seemed to be lifting all boats.

But now that necessity is not there. The Dems will win in November no matter who the Republican nominee is and no matter who the Dem nominee is. The New Democrat compulsion like in 1992 is not there.

Bernie Sanders was a Liberal before, during and after 1992. He stayed a Liberal all along. He is a conviction Liberal. He is so Liberal, he refused to be a Democrat that entire time.

Is this a fight to finish where one philosophy wins and another loses but lives to see perhaps another day? Or is there a fusion possible? Could the New Democrat philosophy and the Liberal philosophy melded into one? Will an attempt be made?

Bill Clinton's outburst at the Black Lives Matter protesters was partly a calculated move to try and grab the liberal white voters, especially in his age group. But it might primarily have been a New Democrat knowing no other way. And it was partly also Bill Clinton liking some attention.

But at some level Bill Clinton fundamentally missed the point. The BLM movement is pointing at a structural problem in the country's criminal justice system.


Friday, April 08, 2016

Hillary's Narrow Lead

Bernie has won many states in a row, and Hillary's already narrow lead among elected delegates has become narrower. But what if it gets narrower still at the end of the day, but Bernie does not surpass it? Then the superdelegates could stay with Hillary, and that gives her a huge lead, and she is the nominee. And that is the most likely scenario right now, unless Bernie wins California by a wide, wide margin. More likely, New York and California cancel each other out. Hillary carries New York by 10% and loses California by 10%.

Bernie, in that scenario, will have shaped the race, shaped the party, shaped the platform, energized the young voters mostly, but does that mean the two end up on the same ticket, kind of like Reagan and Bush in 1980? If the race stays close, that is a plausible scenario. Such a ticket would make the party strong in November.