Hillary's Narrow Lead

Bernie has won many states in a row, and Hillary's already narrow lead among elected delegates has become narrower. But what if it gets narrower still at the end of the day, but Bernie does not surpass it? Then the superdelegates could stay with Hillary, and that gives her a huge lead, and she is the nominee. And that is the most likely scenario right now, unless Bernie wins California by a wide, wide margin. More likely, New York and California cancel each other out. Hillary carries New York by 10% and loses California by 10%.

Bernie, in that scenario, will have shaped the race, shaped the party, shaped the platform, energized the young voters mostly, but does that mean the two end up on the same ticket, kind of like Reagan and Bush in 1980? If the race stays close, that is a plausible scenario. Such a ticket would make the party strong in November.

A Close Race

Here’s How Bernie Sanders Could Win the Nomination

The worst is over for Bernie Sanders. The primaries in the South are finished ..... The preponderance of delegates will be from the diverse, affluent, blue states along or near the coasts, like California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and the District of Columbia. ...... his two weaknesses: diversity and affluence. ...... The metropolitan East Coast and coastal California are among the most affluent regions of the country. Mr. Sanders has struggled in places with high median incomes, even when those areas have a liberal reputation — like Boston or Northern Virginia, which anchor both ends of the Northeast megalopolis. ...... Mr. Sanders isn’t likely to win big in California, either. ..... he might still need to win California by more than 100 delegates, or at least 20 points, to close Mrs. Clinton’s delegate lead. ......

It requires Mr. Sanders to win in places where so far he has tended to lose, and often by a lot.

New York Democratic Polls 2016: Clinton’s Lead Grows

Bernie Sanders has won seven of the last eight nominating contests, but early polling shows he faces a big challenge in New York. ....... There are 247 delegates at stake in the New York primary and the delegates are divided proportionally based on the results.

Bernie v. Hillary

Bernie Sanders is surging in California ..... The poll shows Sanders has more support among voters younger than 40, while older voters prefer Clinton, who also has the overwhelming support of African-American voters. ..... June 7 Democratic primary

Superdelegates could jump Clinton ship: James Robbins

But Democratic-establishment delegates not likely to 'Feel the Bern' unless Hillary faces an indictment. ...... The superdelegate system is working exactly the way it was intended: to empower Democratic party insiders and beat down anti-establishment challengers. ..... Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 669 delegate lead over Bernie Sanders, 1739 to 1070 .... most of her lead comes from the 473 theoretically unpledged super delegates who have lined up behind her. Take them out of the equation and the race is much tighter. Switch them to Sanders and he is the front-runner. ..... ashington state. Bernie Sanders won a blowout victory with 73% of the vote. Yet Clinton can claim 10 of the state’s 17 unpledged delegates, or almost 60%. Is this unfair? Yes, but it is unfairness by design. ...... In most cases, superdelegates are superfluous. ...... In April 1992, poor showings by Bill Clinton in the Wisconsin and New York primaries kept many superdelegates on the sidelines, and there was speculation that the Democrats might face a brokered convention. It all sounds vaguely familiar. ...... Superdelegates lined up early behind Clinton in 2008 as well, but left the fold for Barack Obama as her campaign faltered

Clinton moves goalposts again; girds for New York battle

The campaign is now taking an even longer view, with April now being the month they hope to put Sanders away. ..... She leads Sanders 54% to 42% ...... To take on Sanders in New York, Clinton will cast the Vermont senator as an overly-idealistic, pie-in-the-sky lawmaker who won't be able to achieve many of the things he is proposing. ..... "Some of his ideas for how to get here won't pass, other just won't work, because the numbers just don't add up and that means people won't get the help that they need and deserve," Clinton said to applause from the audience at the Apollo Theater...... "Now my opponent says 'well, we just aren't thinking big enough,'" Clinton added. "Well, this is New York, nobody dreams bigger than we do. But this is a city that likes to get things done. And that is what we want from our president, too."

Obama gets candid about Hillary Clinton's candidacy

the President making the case that it was near time for the party to rally around Clinton and prepare for a tough general election context. .... "He talked about how some people are not excited about her candidacy.

Donald Trump on Elizabeth Warren: 'Who's that, the Indian?'

"His insecurities are on parade," she wrote minutes earlier, "petty bullying, attacks on women, cheap racism, flagrant narcissism." ..... Last Monday, Warren on Facebook called Trump "a bigger, uglier threat every day that goes by."...... "It's time for decent people everywhere -- Republican, Democrat, Independent -- to say No More Donald," she continued. "There's no virtue in silence."

John Kerry: U.S. presidential race 'embarrassing'

Secretary of State John Kerry called the state of the U.S. presidential race "embarrassing" and says he is regularly asked about the election in meetings abroad. ...... "Every meeting I have, everywhere, people are asking what is happening with the United States, 'What are you doing to yourselves?' " ...... President Barack Obama seconded Kerry's sentiment in remarks Tuesday, saying foreign impressions of the GOP race were damaging the United States' reputation. ...... "I'm getting questions constantly from foreign leaders about some of the wackier suggestions that are being made," Obama said during an appearance in the White House briefing room. "I have to emphasize that it's not just (Donald) Trump's proposals. You are also hearing concerns about (Texas Sen. Ted) Cruz's proposals, which in some ways are just as draconian when it comes to immigration." ...... Later, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said the damage has come in the form of less productive meetings with foreign leaders, who are intent on hearing Obama or Kerry explain the political battle. ....... The business mogul turned politician also called NATO "obsolete" and said member states "should start paying their fair share."