Should The BJP Lose Bihar

There are indications the BJP might lose Bihar. Should that end up being the case, that will be testimony to the enormous sophistication of the Bihari voter. They gave the country a Prime Minister last year. This year looks they might give the country the Opposition Leader in Nitish Kumar. Modi and Nitish are easily the two most talented politicians on the Indian stage today, both having stellar records on economic growth issues. 

Last year, Modi was the only one running for Prime Minister. Rahul was not running. And there was no such thing called the Third Front. No wonder Modi won. This year in Bihar Nitish has been the only one running for Chief Minister. How can you win if you are not even running? Who was running to be the BJP Chief Minister? The most likely candidate, Sushil Modi, sounded like he was never happier than when he was deputy to Nitish. By his own admission Nitish is the superior political talent. 

But a Bihar loss might not be such bad news for Modi. He will still likely win Uttar Pradesh next year. And he might still sweep Bihar in 2019, as long as delivers and takes the economic growth rate to 10% plus by then. 

India is the most vibrant democracy on the planet. India is not China. An Opposition Leader is a good thing. 

बिहार ने देश को PM दिया, अब लग रहा है Opposition Leader भी देगा
Bihar Is Make Or Break For Modi
लालु यादव: मौसम वैज्ञानिक

बिहार ने देश को PM दिया, अब लग रहा है Opposition Leader भी देगा

उड़ती चिड़िया को हल्दी लगाती है बिहारका वोटर 

-- श्री लालु प्रसाद जादव 

Mid-campaign blues for BJP

The Prime Minister's campaign outings in Bihar are given a break, then rescheduled. The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah monopoly on billboards ends and a cast of local leaders is mounted on hoardings to sell Brand BJP. After weeks of being left to their devices, allies are suddenly called on board for consultations....... If there is a palpable mid-campaign flutter in the BJP backrooms, there may be good reason for it. Key strategies employed by the party have either not worked or backfired.... BJP strategists privately admit the Yadav consolidation behind Lalu in this election is far greater than during the 2014 Lok Sabha election........ RSS boss Mohan Bhagwat may only have added to the growing ranks behind Nitish and Lalu by his repeated calls for reviewing reservations for the underprivileged....... more than half its tickets have gone to upper castes, who form the core base of the party. It has not been able to credibly fight off speculation that it should it win, it will return Bihar to "upper caste raj" after a quarter century. ...... To Bihar's empowered, and majority, Mandal classes, that is not a palatable prospect. If they are hearing Lalu's " amir-garib, adga-pichhda" call, and rallying around, it is a sign they are not willing to give up their power stakes. ...... The BJP tried, with fair determination, to counter the Bhagwat effect with beef. For a period, three senior partymen - Sushil Modi, Giriraj Singh and Dharmendra Pradhan - were tweeting daily and energetically on cow and cow consumption, as if it had become their chief issue. ......

In an uncharacteristic - and desperate - departure from form and image, Sushil Modi even dared Lalu to drink cow-urine in public to prove his love for the bovine classes.

..... after having been showcased a fortnight or so, beef is off the forefront of the BJP's Bihar agenda. The beef spike was among the things that belied the BJP's claim it was contesting the election solely on development. It was also a clue that the party was lost for a clear strategy in Bihar. ...... The Modi wave of 2014 had arched over the many complex caste equations of Bihar. But this is not 2014 redux. To try and enact a repeat of the 2014 Modi-centric poll too may not be working. ...... Unlike the discredited UPA, Nitish is a strong incumbent even after two terms in office, and rides a pro-incumbency sentiment for work done during his years in office. ...... Between Nitish, Lalu and the Congress, the Mahagathbandhan could also ensure minimal rupture of the Muslim vote .......

Modi continues to gather huge crowds but he isn't creating ripples..... but Modi isn't a candidate in this election. And he hasn't made it clear to Biharis who his candidate is.

Lies and half-truths: How Nitish outsmarted RSS, BJP in their own game in Bihar

Politics, like war, is an art of deception. Disinformation and rumours are essential in the arsenal that political parties build to demolish rivals. The RSS-BJP may have earned a formidable reputation, or notoriety, at least in general perception, for deploying falsehoods and half-truths to create a smokescreen to attain political goals, but in Bihar it appears to have met more than a match in Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav....... There is little doubt that Nitish Kumar has been resorting to convenient half-truths to deepen the fault-line that exists between Narendra Modi and Sushil Modi. Nitish, who was associated with the BJP for over 17 years, is quite aware of the frictions within various groups of the party. There is little doubt that Sushil Modi fully endorsed the idea of keeping Narendra Modi away from the campaign in Bihar elections to avoid consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of Lalu Yadav. But Sushil was not alone as he found unqualified support from the central leadership. LK Advani, Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley found merit in the logic of “keeping away Narendra Modi from Bihar” and deliberately excluded him from the campaign till 2010........ in those days, Sushil Modi was seen as an extension of Nitish Kumar. And there are several instances to prove that till Nitish parted his company with the BJP, he enjoyed unflinching loyalty of Sushil Modi as deputy chief minister. This was evident when Narendra Modi, after winning 2012 assembly election, walked into a meeting of the national development council (NDC) and was greeted by central ministers and all chief ministers except Nitish Kumar at Vigyan Bhavan. Sushil Modi who accompanied Nitish Kumar at the NDC also chose to ignore Narendra Modi and avoided greeting him. The apparent reason for Sushil Modi’s insouciance was his belief that it would be too difficult for the Gujarat strongman to emerge at the national scene given the perception of him being a polarising personality....... As the Bihar battle appears to be in full gear, Nitish Kumar has been strategically washing off his own intransigence towards Narendra Modi by pinning the blame on Sushil Modi. The move is clearly aimed at driving his adversaries in disarray by sowing seeds of doubts within the enemy’s camp. In Bihar election, Nitish Kumar and his team successfully created many smokescreens to cover up their real political objectives.

More recently the JD (U)-RJD successfully spread the rumours that Narendra Modi’s rallies were called off in various places in view of the imminent defeat

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