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Friday, May 15, 2015

Indian Farmers And The Land Bill

English: Daytime scene showing the pre-monsoon air over India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If Modi were to ditch the land bill, that would not have any impact on an unfriendly monsoon, that would not have any impact on the unfavorable global conditions. The land bill impacts less than 1% of the land owned by Indian farmers, maybe 0.1%. But Modi's land bill is bearing the brunt of what is happening to all the land held by all Indian farmers. Farmers are 60% of India, and India is a democracy. The Chinese Communist Party never had to pass any land bill. They took what they needed, as they needed them.

The Indian farmers' concerns need to be addressed, even though they are largely independent of the land bill. They are legitimate voters with legitimate concerns. There is very little to do on the monsoon front in the immediate term, but major irrigation projects must be in the offing for the long term, there is not much that can be done to bring the global markets in favor. So what to do?

Communication is key. They have to feel the empathy. This is where leadership comes into play. Modi's megaphone comes handy here. So far the attempt has been to say the land bill is not anti-farmer. Well, what is the opposition to the land bill is only a symptom. The real issue is the farmers do have genuine concerns. Modi could do well to talk about the monsoon and the global markets.

Even on the land bill, the talk has been about infrastructure and industry. Irrigation has to be talked about in the same breath. Indian farmers understand irrigation even more than they understand rural infrastructure. Irrigation also speaks to the monsoon woes.

When Gandhi asked the Indian people to come forward, he did not offer lollipops. He asked for sacrifice. Modi can also ask people for sacrifice. If you want a better future for your children, this land bill needs to be passed. The next generation can not be as dependent on agriculture as this one. Usi mein bhalai hai. People will understand.

But talking about the next generation is not enough. Farmers are not going away any time soon. They have concerns just like the industrialists and anyone else. They are also voters. They are also consumers. The government in Delhi has to make its very best attempts to do right by them. In the immediate term. There is no skipping that part. They voted for you with expectations. Those expectations have to be met.

Indian Farmers Going Through A Downturn

The land bill, even if passed, will impact a very small part of land held by the farmers in India. But a bad monsoon or an unfavorable global market, neither of which are the doings of the government, can drag the government down, because India is a democracy, and one of the ways voters vent their anger is by voting one way or the other. The farmers of India are going through a downturn right now, and the land bill has become the punchbag for it.

For Modi's year-old government, storm brewing in rural India

From the start of the crop season last October through March, India's farm exports have fallen more than 11 percent to $15 billion, as the impact of the global commodities glut has been sharpened by events like Iran's nuclear talks and a currency dip in Brazil......... The fall in exports has depressed domestic farmgate prices just as unseasonal rain damaged winter crops such as wheat, potato, chickpea and rapeseed. Farmers have little money now to buy seeds for the summer sowing, and meteorologists have predicted the annual June-October monsoon will be below par, which means the next crop may also fail. ..... some of the events that have led to the crisis are beyond the government's control....... Until last year, for example, Iran paid a premium for Indian sugar, soymeal, barley and basmati rice. Now, with the easing of some Western sanctions, Iran is looking to buy elsewhere........ Cotton exports have been hit by China's decision to abandon a stockpiling plan, while non-basmati rice shipments face headwinds after Thailand decided to run down its stockpiles....... On the other side of the world, a decline in the Brazilian real following a scandal at oil giant Petrobras last year has weighed on sugar prices, making Indian exports uncompetitive......... Meanwhile, the fall in global crude oil prices has depressed prices of grains and oilseeds used for biofuels. It also trimmed freight rates, making imports of commodities such as corn and soymeal from South America cheaper for Asian buyers........ A strong rupee - despite a fall last week - has further made India's farm exports uncompetitive and imports cheaper......... A major commodities trader has said the decline in agricultural exports could be as much as $5 billion, or nearly 20 percent, for the crop year to September, which would be the steepest on record....... In the villages, farmers struggle to understand why they are earning less. "How come prices of all crops are going down?" asked Anil Sathe, a farmer in Kamargaon who said he has had to start working as a part-time labourer to make ends meet........

Farming accounts for only 15 percent of India's $2 trillion economy but provides a livelihood to 60 percent of its 1.25 billion people. A crisis in the countryside would have severe political impact.

India's powerful farming lobby turns on Modi

Farmer Tarachand Mathur was one of millions of Indians who voted Narendra Modi into power last year, but the government's push to make it easier for big business to forcibly acquire land means he won't be backing the premier again. .... "The rain gods don't hear us and Modi has also turned deaf to our cries.".... "We thought Modi's government would address our problems, that is why we voted for him. But look what he is doing. We will not back him again," said the 70-year-old as he smoked a hookah pipe.

Rahul Gandhi asks ‘visiting’ PM to meet farmers

"Our PM is on a tour of India right now. He has come here for some days. ..... The insinuation that Modi was jet-setting around the globe while farmers were committing suicides forms part of Rahul's now-familiar attacks at the PM in his post-sabbatical avatar.

Land bill: I live for the poor, says PM Modi

Talking in the context of the government's affordable housing scheme and that land acquired under the new law would benefit the poor, Modi asked, "Who is going to live in them? Are industrialists going to stay there... will Mukesh Ambani live there?" ...... "the US President (Barack Obama) as also the head of the World Bank and IMF all accept that India is the fastest growing economy of the world".