Sunday, June 15, 2014

A One State Solution

English: Palestinian territories (West Bank an...
English: Palestinian territories (West Bank and Gaza Strip) showing Israel's 1948 and 1967 borders (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
At best it looks like soft apartheid.
 
Israel Elects a One-State President
Over time, a series of other Likud politicians have faced the contradiction between democracy and ruling over the Palestinians of the occupied territories, and have concluded that Israel must seek a two-state solution. Rivlin once described this as the equivalent of an ultra-Orthodox Jew turning his back on religion. To avoid this heresy, Rivlin has declared that Israel should annex the West Bank and give the Palestinians citizenship. He has become a one-stater..... the only possible democratic outcome for Israelis and Palestinians is a binational state ..... the one-staters of the right aren't at all interested in binationalism. And at closer examination, they aren't proposing a true shared democracy ..... a folksy, friendly president who "would prefer for the Palestinians to be citizens of this country rather than divide the land ..... "in the Land of Israel, whether we like it or not, both Jews and Arabs live. Thus any diplomatic solution based on separation is not feasible." You can't fault him for lack of chutzpah; he gave this speech at memorial ceremony for assassinated prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was killed for his commitment to the opposite view. .... The Jews would vote for a Jewish parliament and the Palestinians for an Arab parliament ..... Rivlin is committed to the three principles of the Whole Land, democracy, and a Jewish nation-state. He doesn't know how to fit them together ..... The single state would change its electoral system, designing voting districts to reduce Palestinian political power ..... She, like the others, leaves Gaza out of the picture, as if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can end with no change in the besieged coastal enclave. .... What Rivlin and the rest share is professed confidence that a single state from river to sea can be both democratic and Jewish, with a large Palestinian population that is denied national rights. ...... They do share a certain brazenness with those Palestinian one-staters who hope that with a narrow Palestinian majority, they can have a Palestinian state. .... neither group is giving up its national aspirations, and creating a single state would mean continuing the conflict under new conditions. To the extent that President Rivlin becomes a symbol of the potential for a one-state solution, he will be the friendly, good-humored symbol of a dangerous illusion

Iraq Could Cost Hillary 2016

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton intr...
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton introduces President Barack Obama before he delivered a policy address on events in the Middle East. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
It is possible this is a false alarm. This is not the beginning of a new, protracted war. The US sure is not going back. But if the government in Baghdad does not fall, it should not be that bad politically for Hillary. But a bad scenario makes Iraq look bad for Hillary, strictly politically speaking.

But then all of the Middle East is unfinished business. This is like the Cold War in 1977 or 1972. The end is not yet in sight.

There are at least five different scenarios that could unfold, only one of which could cost Hillary 2016. But even the other four make it hard. But then 2016 was always going to be a regular presidential election. It is going to be a very real, contested election should Hillary run, and I never doubted she is going to.