I See Modi Doing Well

Flag of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a national political party in India. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I see Modi doing well as Prime Minister. I see him giving a strong performance on infrastructure, and FDI. I see him managing the state apparatus well. If he won such a thumping majority based on promise, his majority in five years might be stronger, because it will be based on performance.

What are the political implications? The Congress will have an even harder time crossing the 50 mark in the Lok Sabha next time around. In five years the BJP might cross 300 on its own, and the NDA might cross 350. The message to the Congress is, abhi achhe deen nahin ane wale hain.

The BJP and the NDA mostly grew at the expense of the Congress. Between them the Congress and the BJP get about 50% of the votes. This time was no different. It is just that the pendulum swung much wider this time and the Congress got thrashed. So 50% of the people voted for neither the BJP nor the Congress. There is a message there. Should the Modi government tire or falter, it might be the Third Front, and not the Congress, that might step into the void.

Also, the Third Front parties can not wait for post-poll scenarios. If they are to be viable, they need a permanent structure. They got nothing right now.

This is the first time a Chief Minister has become Prime Minister in India. Now it is going to be that much harder for a non Chief Minister to get the top job in the future. That is bad news for Rahul.

Those who oppose Modi get to try their luck in the states. Modi got Delhi. And he will keep it for 10 years. During those 10 years his political competitors get to prove themselves in their respective states. That also applies to the Congress which still runs a healthy share of the states.

Related articles

• Naidu meets Modi
• Sonia, Rahul to attend Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony on May 26
• Tea Seller, Who Proposed Narendra Modi's Name from Vadodara, to Attend His Swearing-In
• PwC makes annuity rates prediction
• Whither India?
• Exclusive! Rahul to be told: Improve or get lost!
• Sonia, Rahul Gandhi to Attend Narendra Modi's Swearing-In
• Election Results 2014: My Son Will Lead India Towards Development, Says Narendra Modi's Proud Mother
• Finally Sonia Congratulates Modi
• No regrets for Modi remark: Mukul Sangma

Bihar: 150 JD(U), 70 RJD, 23 Congress

English: This map depicts regions of Uttar Pradesh: Upper Doab Middle Doab Lower Doab Rohilkhand Awadh Purvanchal Bundelkhand Baghelkhand (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

For the 2015 Bihar assembly elections, an alliance between the three parties would sweep Bihar. It might even beat the NDA tally of 2010. First, will these three even come together? Two, will the three agree to an arrangement where the JD(U) is the clear senior partner?

Political arithmetic would make a clear case for such an alliance. In Uttar Pradesh, a similar question arises, but there it is about the SP, the BSP and the Congress.

In Bihar it is easier because Nitish has strong development bonafides. In Uttar Pradesh Mulayam, Akhilesh or Mayawati can not make the same claim. Besides, the SP and the BSP have been strongly opposed to each other.

With a revived BJP, the party has a clear shot at forming the state government in Uttar Pradesh.

But this is too early to think in terms of state elections in Bihar. Right now I am paying attention to the Modi Sarkar unfolding. So far so good. He has impressed me on his way to power. I believe he will deliver. And if he does, he will return with a fatter majority in five years.

Related articles

• Bihar: interpreting the massive mandate
• Nitish Kumar has betrayed Bihar by taking RJD's support: Sushil Kumar Modi
• RJD extends support to Manjhi Government in Bihar
• An Ode to the Old: 8 Minimal Illustrations to Inspire Hipsterdom
• BJP MLAs to be present in Bihar Assembly during trust vote: Sushil Kumar Modi
• Bihar doesn't have much of a Modi wave
• Lalu Yadav's Party to Support Nitish Kumar's JD (U) In Bihar Floor Test
• New Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi Wins Trust Vote
• Manjhi wins trust vote in Bihar, says no rubber stamp
• Manjhi government wins trust vote in Bihar