What Would Jesus Do?

Obama 2008 is in trouble. Hillary is pulling ahead. She is leading in all the early states right now. And this is no fluke. If she wins the first four states, the rest will not even have to wait until February 5. This election will be over in January.

Her victory is not inevitable. Four months are a long time in politics. But Obama 2008 is going to have to change gears.

Iraq

Obama is not using Iraq like he should. That is his number one strength going into the primary season. But he has been giving Hillary a pass on this one. Hillary did not only vote for the war in 2002, she was also one of the most enthusiastic Senator to do so. And now we learn she did not even read the National Intelligence Estimate report she was supposed to that would have told her what she said she did not know at the time.

Obama is not a pacifist. He was simply opposed to taking the eyes off Bin Laden. Iraq has been a wrong war on the wrong battlefield. George W and Hillary did what Bin Laden wanted them to do. Bin Laden is on record telling his subordinates it was urgent the US got busy in Iraq and took its eyes off Afghanistan.

Hillary's image of Ms. Security has to be busted, because it does not hold water.

Hitting Back

Obama does not have to go negative. Hillary is not going negative either. But she has been hammering Obama relentlessly. And Obama has not been responding. When you don't hit back, you lose. Hillary's campaign has been attacking Obama's youth, dynamism, freshness, innovation, integrity, and newness on a daily basis for months now. Where is the hitting back? Remember what happened to John Kerry when he did not hit back at the Swift Boat Veterans in 2004: he swiftly was shown the door, facts be damned.

I am all for a new kind of politics, I am all for the politics of hope. But getting hit and taking it lying down is simply bad politics, and the numbers show that to be true. Obama started climbing up in the early states when he engaged Hillary in a duel for a week. Then he let it lapse, and Hillary gained again. You got to engage in an ongoing duel. You got to show some strength.

Race, Gender

If Hillary can compete with Obama for black voters, Obama can compete with Hillary for the women voters. It is about identifying the key issues.

Health Care

This is a big one. Hillary leads among the low income and the elderly Democrats, and there is no logic behind that. With Obama you get universal health in four years, with Hillary eight years. Those two groups need some Obama 2008 help to get enlightened on this fundamental issue.

Substance

It is not like Obama lacks substance. But his opponents, starting with the Hillary campaign, have made it look like all Obama is is a pretty face. Obama has to put out his policy wonk side a little.

How about videoblogging the sessions he holds with his brain trusts so as to show the world he is really into the nitty gritty details on all the issues?

Ethics Reform

Hillary is such a status quo person when it comes to lobbyists and all that.

Between Iraq, health care and ethics reform, the differences between the two are so stark, Obama should have had the nomination sewed up by now, but he is not, because he is doing the John Kerry thing. He is not responding to the attacks. He is not hitting back. He is not engaging his opponent.

Shaking Off The Fear

There is this line in Obama's autobiography. He learned early on as an up and coming black young man that as long he did not make sudden physical moves, and talked polite, the white world was fine with him. Sometimes I wonder if he has not learned that lesson a little too well. He needs to shake that off. He needs to make sudden moves if he might feel so moved. And being too polite is not good.

Obama has to visibly show some strength. If he can't take on Hillary, he can't take on Bin Laden. That is what this is about. That is what the American people are looking for.

Engaging Hillary in political combat moves you up in the polls. It is as simple as that.

In The News

Powerful earthquake hits Indonesia Los Angeles Times
Magnitude 8.2 Quake Hits Indonesia's Sumatra Island (Update7) Bloomberg
Tsunami warnings issued after quake hits Sumatra Reuters Canada
Kremlin Upheaval Forbes
Putin Names New Prime Minister New York Times the beginning of a carefully orchestrated transition of power ahead of presidential elections in March 2008 .... “It’s a typical Putin move,” Ms. Barysch said. “He wants an administrator to run the government and not a rival center of power. Will Viktor Zubkov now be president? He still has to be elected and has zero name recognition.”
ABC Poll: Giuliani's Lead Drops to Single Digit ABC News
Obama to Deliver Iraq Speech New York Times Obama is traveling to Clinton, Iowa – yes, you read that correctly – to deliver a speech calling for U.S. combat brigades to immediately begin pulling out of Iraq one or two at a time, with a complete withdrawal by the end of next year. .... Obama is aiming to distinguish himself on one of the defining issues of the 2008 presidential campaign. ..... Introducing the senator today is Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter ...... “I opposed this war from the beginning,” Mr. Obama is expected to say. “I opposed the war in 2002. I opposed it in 2003. I opposed it in 2004. I opposed it in 2005. I opposed it in 2006.” ..... His advisers are seeking to present his judgment on Iraq as a defining distinction with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Obama Outlines His Troop Pullout Plan The Associated Press "Let me be clear: There is no military solution in Iraq and there never was," Obama said ........ Obama was trying to further sharpen that distinction ..... Petraeus recommended that a 2,000-member Marine unit come home this month and not be replaced. That would be followed in mid-December by the departure of an Army brigade of 3,500 to 4,000 soldiers. An additional four combat brigades would be withdrawn by July 2008. .... Obama said the U.S. and the Iraqi government should discuss how to go about withdrawing troops. ...... By arguing that only combat brigades should be withdrawn — there are 20 in Iraq, including five President Bush sent January — Obama appeared to suggest that other U.S. troops could remain. ...... "The president would have us believe there are two choices: keep all of our troops in Iraq or abandon these Iraqis," Obama said. "I reject this choice." ..... Instead, he argued for creating an international working group of countries in the region and in Asia and Europe that would work to stabilize Iraq.
Obama's new war plan takes aim at Clinton AFP
Obama says he would withdraw from Iraq by end-2008 Reuters
Clinton Sees Fear Realized in Trouble With Donor New York Times Some sort of fund-raising scandal that would echo the Clinton-era controversies of the 1990s and make her appear greedy or ethically challenged. ........ Norman Hsu, a one-time fugitive and one of her top fund-raisers, whose actions raise serious questions about how well the campaign vetted its donors. ...... a convicted criminal who brought in tens of thousands of dollars from potentially tainted sources. ...... any attention cast on past fund-raising controversies could threaten her image with voters. ...... “People have often said about the Clintons, they don’t care who they hang out with as long as the people can be helpful to them,” said one of Mrs. Clinton’s major fund-raisers. “The larger point in all of this is that the Clintons are the ultimate pragmatists in who they hang out with; if you can be useful to them, they will find a way to make it work.” ..... Mrs. Clinton is not so much furious about the scandal, as she is worried about containing the political damage. ..... 260 donors whom Mr. Hsu recruited ..... Clinton and her advisers are concerned that rival campaigns or the news media will dig into the background of each donor ..... The campaign will try to get most of the donors to give the money back right after the refunds ...... the Clinton campaign was deeply worried that the controversy could grow. ...... “Bundlers. The feeling is there are a few more that will have Hsu problems.” ..... an Obama spokesman, Bill Burton, said yesterday: “Ultimately we assume that voters will choose based on the record and the vision that candidates have in reforming the role of money in politics.”
Clinton, Giuliani Ahead in Florida Poll The Associated Press
Clinton picks up fourth labor endorsement Boston Globe
Clinton Gets Letter Carriers Endorsement Guardian Unlimited
NH poll Clinton, Romney dominating; Edwards and Obama tied for ... Boston Globe
For what it's worth: Obama wins Cincinnati Enquirer Obama won with 102 votes - about 35 percent - over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (69 votes) and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (64 votes). ..... "It's tremendous," said state Sen. Eric Kearney, an Obama supporter who has hosted a fundraiser for the Illinois senator in Cincinnati. "It's exciting."
Clinton Blasts Obama For Slamming Edwards Jab The Onion (satire)
Obama, Linking In Ahead of the Curve Washington Post Today, Sen. Barack Obama became the first candidate to have a group on LinkedIn, the popular social networking site for working professionals. In a way, LinkedIn is the anti-MySpace. ..... The users' average household income is $139,000 ..... about 75 percent are ages 29 and over. ..... Early today Obama posted this question: "How can the next president better help small business and entrepreneurs thrive?" As of 11 a.m. EST, he's received 330 answers. .... it's the small businesses in this country that make the economy work, not the huge corporations ..... "The campaign takes pride in being on the cutting edge of technology."
Quake triggers tsunami in Indonesia; India issues alerts Hindu
Japan's Prime Minister Resigns BusinessWeek

Hands Off Eliot Spitzer

New York: Bruno's Overreach and Collapsing Subways What's been going on for weeks in New York state is part of the standard conservative 'kill them in the crib' strategy of destroying progressive icons and politicians. In this case, the target is rising progressive star Eliot Spitzer. Spitzer is considered especially dangerous to the right-wing, because he's a real populist who has taken on Wall Street in extremely high profile cases. He was so effective that a few years ago, the corrupt US Chamber of Commerce declared a 'war on Spitzerism' to reign in state attorney general officers that sought to aggressively enforce the law against corporate elites. The scandal that's taking place now, while ostensibly caused by Spitzer's mistakes, has more to do with these established enemies of populism combined with a peculiar set of incentives for local politicians and insider journalists in New York to pile on an anti-Spitzer frenzy. ....... years of Giuliani and Bloomberg in the Mayoral seat has of course led to decaying infrastructure ...... Every day, I get an email from Michael Caputo of NYFacts.net bashing Eliot Spitzer, and Caputo is a former aide to George H.W. Bush, well-established in right-wing orbits, and obviously directing a smear campaign. .....This is really a collection of insiders, press people, angry coddled legislators, Joe Bruno and right-wingers trying to destroy Eliot Spitzer's capacity to govern New York. They tried it with Deval Patrick in Massachusetts and Jon Corzine in New Jersey, and they'll try it with every progressive who takes on a political machine. In some ways, this is exactly what the right did in impeaching Bill Clinton, using Clinton's sloppiness and mistakes to try to overturn a popular electoral result. Destroying progressives is what the right does well, and it's in fact the only thing the right does well. This time, it's not going to work, since there are already investigations going on that are not grounded in Republican partisanship, the scandal has been on every paper in the state for weeks, and yet Spitzer is still pretty popular. ..... the public is paying attention and isn't falling for it

Eliot Spitzer is the future of the Democratic Party. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are the face of the Democratic Party today, but Eliot Spitzer is the future. It could be eight years of Obama-Clinton, or Clinton-Obama. And then it is going to be Spitzer time. Spitzer is going national. If not him, then who? It is not if, but when.

I don't know a whole lot about New York state politics. The little I know, little that I follow is because Eliot Spitzer is Governor, and David Pollak is state party chair. I kept seeing Pollak at DL21C events for months. So when I got told he was now state chair, I was like, that much access!

I pride myself in my political instincts, and Spitzer shows up on my radar loud and clear. You just feel it.

Bill Clinton is like Michael Jordan, he is skillful, he jumps the hoops. Hillary Clinton is a smart, strong, pragmatic woman. Barack Obama is vastly inspiring. When I think Eliot Spitzer, I think Mike Tyson. This guy can hit. He swings. He hits.

My religion is that I am a Buddhist. My political religion is that I am a progressive. And so I am very fond of Eliot Spitzer. There is noone quite like him on the national scene. He could deliver direct elections for president, he could deliver publicly financed elections, he could deliver gay marriage.

Universal Health, Lifelong Education, Publicly Financed Elections

Those are the three big goals for progressives in America. The Obama-Clinton duo will deliver health. Education will be an ongoing thing with the private sector playing a key role. For the big political reforms, the country will have to wait for Spitzer.

I have noticed the Albany Republicans have imported some out of state right wing political gangsters to do the dirty job on Spitzer. This is a wake up call. The Republicans are going to have to call it quits when it comes to the politics of personal destruction, or they have to be thrown out of the ring. If not now, then when? We got the wind behind our back. This is no 1990s. We are raising more money than the right wingers. We have a more enthusiastic grassroots. Our blogosphere has all but drowned out right wing radio and TV. When you get hit, you hit back.

We don't want the right wingers to beat us on seeing Spitzer's national potential. We have to see it before them. And we have to get into the fight on Spitzer's behalf. Leadership is a gift. Where there is no vision, the people shall perish. Progressives have to find progressive vision and progressive causes, but unless you can find progressive leadership, you are just blowing hot air. Acting protective of promising, progressive leaders is part and parcel of the progressive religion. And so I say, hit back. The blogosphere is like a swarm of bees. Frank Bruno is going to feel like the only safe place for him is to jump into the water and stay down there.

You can not get hit, and not hit back. That is not good politics. A guy like Bruno is on his way out. Spitzer will follow in FDR's footsteps and give New York the progressive majority in the state Senate that it deserves. This guy is already yesterday's news. If you can't hit him when he is weak, when can you?

I hear some Spitzer staffer had to resign for some background research into some kind of power abuse by Bruno, some kind of a corrupt act. I have not been following too closely. The exposure should not have been the work of anyone on Spitzer's staff. Those in power govern. The work should have been the work of the progressive political network. And the exposure should have been relentless. What? He rode a state chopper when he should not have? I don't even know the freaking details.

Eight Years Of Lab Work

Eight years of Spitzer in Albany will be like having New York as the laboratory state for progressives across the country. And I am confident Spitzer can deliver. This is where all the cutting edge progressive stuff gets cooked, to be served on the national stage later.

I would like to throw in some ideas that I have been working on for Nepal, kind of telecommuting. It is almost easier to do it in Nepal since the country is about to write its constitution on its own - by the people - for the first time. It is more of a clean slate. But how about this? The governor is directly elected by the people, if noone gets at least 50%, there is a second round between the top two. For the lower chamber, all constituencies are of equal population: you hold direct elections. For the upper chamber, you hold indirect elections: you hold proportional elections. If there are 50 seats, the party that gets 2% gets one seat. So people get two ballot papers, one for the direct elections for the lower chamber, and another for the completely proportional elections to the upper chamber. So parties will have to submit lists for the 50 slots. If a party gets 50% of the votes, the top 25 people on the list get in. The 2% rule will mean a whole bunch of "startup" parties could come and go. Politics will breathe a new life. That will keep the big parties alert. And, of course, all elections will have to be publicly financed. How exactly you devise a formula is a challenge. I would say, a party gets money from the state in direct proportion to how many votes it earns, something like that. Or maybe not. I know, by now it sounds theoretical, but it is because the current system is so entrenched.

I think Spitzer should tackle gay marriage after he wins re-election. He should tackle other political reforms first while expanding gay rights all along the way.

Albany is a shame. If Albany were in Mississippi, you would be like, what do you expect, those are the backwaters. But to have the Albany dysfunction in New York state? Such a shame. That place needs heavy doses of democracy and transparency.

Fitting In Hillary, Obama, Spitzer
Obama-Spitzer Vs. Giuliani-Romney
An Obama Spitzer Ticket
Obama, Hillary, Spitzer
Eliot Spitzer, Governor





In The News

Lawmakers chafe at steady-state Iraq policy Christian Science Monitor
Nearly 3 million displaced as fresh floods devastate northeast India International Herald Tribune more than 9,000 of Assam's 23,000 villages have been inundated, forcing people out of their homes and on to higher ground. .... The Brahmaputra, which originates in Tibet as the Tsangpo, traverses 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) across the Assam plains before culminating in the Bay of Bengal. This river and its innumerable tributaries flood their banks every monsoon season bringing misery to Assam's 26 million people. .... Monsoon rains usually hit India from June to September. They are vital to farmers but are also deadly. During this year's monsoon season, more than 2,200 people have been killed by flooding, collapsing houses and other rain-related incidents across India.
The Oprah Factor and Obama New York Times
Obama Distances Himself From Controversial Book on US-Israeli ... Washington Post The book argues that a highly influential assortment of pro-Israeli politicians, journalists and academics have succeeded in pushing U.S. policy in the Middle East in directions that do not necessarily serve America's best interests. ...... Obama encountered scattered grumbles in March at a pro-Israel conference in Washington, where attendees expressed concerns about Obama's comment, made in Iowa shortly before the conference, that "Nobody is suffering more than the Palestinian people.'' ...... At another conference in Washington in April, of the National Jewish Democratic Council, Obama chose his words carefully, while still seeking to show that he was not satisfied with the status quo in Israel: "My commitment to you is unwavering," he said in response to a question about Israel, "but the only thing I will not do is to relinquish the possibility that our Middle East policy involves more than just arms sales and military and strategic options to consider. There has to be an effective diplomacy."
Oprah's Star Power Won't Do Much for Obama AlterNet a celebrity cheer lead of a presidential candidate does absolutely nothing to boost the candidate. ..... the closest thing to America's earth mother ..... in one big leap she's asking the same millions that dote on her sage advice on relationships to shift gears and trust her judgment that Obama is the best to handle global warming, tax policy, the Iraq war, terrorism, job creation and inflation, failing public schools, criminal justice issues, and judicial appointments. ...... Oprah's roughest sale of Obama will be to black women. Polls show that they are overwhelmingly backing Hillary.
Clinton Widens Democratic Lead, Republicans Split, Poll Finds Bloomberg Clinton has established a clear lead over her Democratic competitors in the early U.S. primary states ..... Clinton holds a narrow advantage over John Edwards and Barack Obama in Iowa. In New Hampshire and South Carolina she has a commanding lead over Obama and Edwards ...... Clinton, a senator from New York, was the leader when she joined the race in January and has only gained momentum since then. Few frontrunners in recent American politics have displayed such steady strength ........ In all three states, the popularity of Clinton, 59, and Giuliani, 63, is fueled by perceptions that they are strong leaders and the best able to deal with national security and terrorism issues. ....... for Democrats, Obama, 46, an Illinois senator, tops frontrunner Clinton on new ideas and is generally considered more likeable. ...... In the three states, Clinton leads by a wide margin on most issues, including fighting terrorism, protecting national security and ending the Iraq war. She is also the Democrat seen as having the best chance of beating the eventual Republican nominee in the November 2008 presidential election. ...... her experience. She's been in politics for 35 years.'' ....... Clinton leads Edwards.. 28 percent to 23 percent in Iowa. She is ahead of Obama and Edwards by 35 percent to 16 percent each in New Hampshire and tops Obama by a 45 percent to 27 percent margin in South Carolina. ......... Even though Obama trails Clinton significantly, it's not all bad news for him. In all three states, he was the voters' second choice, so if other candidates falter he could be the biggest beneficiary in a two-way contest against Clinton. He also does well on some important issues. ...... He beats Clinton by about a 2-to-1 margin in New Hampshire and Iowa, and by 7 points in South Carolina on which candidate has new ideas. Overall, more Democrats say it's important for a presidential candidate to have fresh ideas than experience. ...... ``We've tried the guys,'' said Greene, who is changing her registration to Democrat from Republican. ``She's a woman and I'd like to see her in there.'' ..... ``One of my big concerns right now is abortion and gay rights,'' he said. ``We need to do everything we can to stop it,'' said Smith, who believes Thompson has ``more conservative values'' than Giuliani or McCain, and that ``Romney is a governor of a state that let same-sex marriage happen.'' ...... Iowa is Romney's strongest state, where he gets 28 percent of the vote, compared with 16 percent for both Giuliani and Thompson. ... In New Hampshire, Romney is ahead of Giuliani by 5 percentage points .... In all three states, Democrats express a higher level of interest in the campaigns than do Republicans.
Clinton Dominates, Romney Slips in Early-State Races, Poll Says Bloomberg Clinton is dominating the Democratic field among working-class and older voters in early primary states ...... In all three states, New York Senator Clinton, 59, appeals to individuals in households earning less than $40,000 as well as those over the age of 65. ..... Forty-eight percent of older voters in South Carolina support Clinton, while 3 percent favor Obama. In New Hampshire, 44 percent of those voters support Clinton, while 8 percent back Obama. ....... the religious right -- defined in the poll as self- described religious fundamentalists, Christian conservatives and people who take the Bible literally -- ...... ``I see Mormonism as a cult, instead of a branch of Christianity,'' said Valarie Harper, 56, who works part-time in a flower shop in West Columbia, South Carolina, and described herself as a Christian conservative. ...... Clinton leads Obama and Edwards among households earning less than $40,000 in all three states. She has a double-digit advantage in South Carolina and New Hampshire. ... Clinton is drawing more support from black voters in South Carolina, with 43 percent, compared with 32 percent for Obama. Clinton also registers better with white voters there, garnering 51 percent, while 15 percent support Obama.
Clinton wins straw poll San Diego Union Tribune, United States
Clinton says US military will never solve Iraq's problems International Herald Tribune, France

"That Woman Deserves Her Revenge. We deserve to die."