Explaining Early State And National Polls

Obama now leads in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina. Hillary has widened her national lead. How do you explain that?

In the early states Obama leads because the voters in the early states have already gone through their puppy love phase with the Clinton name that sends good vibes from the 1990s. Now they are looking more closely, learning more about the candidates, and in Obama they like what they see.

Nationally a lot of voters are barely starting to pay attention to the race. They are like, did you say the election is on? I did not know. This early? And they hear the Clinton name, and they are like, I like Clinton, sure. I will bet you quite a few of them think Bill Clinton is running again. He has already done his time in detention and how he is back.

This might be hard for the hard core to believe, but that is what is going on. Give them some time. When they learn more about Obama, they are going to fall for him just fine.

It is going to be a Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton ticket.

I expect Barack Obama to take the national lead perhaps in December, even late in December. Barack will have a Christmas gift to take home: a lead in the national polls. Until then it helps to not be in the lead. Then your volunteers and workers and staff are working harder, are more on the edge, are more focused. To go from being number two to number one is also momentum. And momentum is the name of the game.

Barack will sweep. He will win Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina. And he will also sweep all the way to February 5. Midnight of February 5, the Democratic primary will be over.

I hope we wake up on February 6 to the news of a Barack-Hillary ticket.

And in the general election that ticket will sweep the country like Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Good times are here.

In The News

Obama whips up crowd before debate Chicago Sun-Times Obama whipped up a crowd of several hundred this afternoon at a rally in a parking lot outside the field that's hosting Tuesday night's forum. The Illinois senator said he has ''home field advantage.''

Labor Sets the Stage for a Democratic Forum New York Times 12,000 members .... bills in Congress that would make it easier to unionize and give all firefighters and police officers the right to bargain collectively. ...... the second forum the Democrats will attend within a week; a third sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign will be held on Thursday ..... Dick Gephardt had the endorsements of 23 unions during the 2004 presidential primary season ...... A.F.L.-C.I.O., a federation of 55 unions representing nearly 10 million workers ..... 205,000 union members did volunteer work in the 2006 campaign and that the federation’s political program contacted more than 13 million members of unions and union households ..... Labor leaders said the Republican presidential candidates were invited to take part in the Chicago debate, but none of them filled out a labor questionnaire sent them — a precondition for participating in the debate.
Presidential candidates to debate in Chicago ABC7Chicago.com
Giuliani Questioned About Catholicism Forbes "My religious affiliation, my religious practices and the degree to which I am a good or not so good Catholic, I prefer to leave to the priests," Giuliani said. ..... Giuliani has been married three times, with one annulment and one divorce. ..... Giuliani said he's the only Republican who can compete throughout the country without writing off traditionally Democratic states. .... "I can make this campaign a nationwide campaign," Giuliani said. "We have only run in certain states." ..... "I suspect it will be a Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama ticket," he said. "Their views are pretty much the same."
Giuliani's daughter backs Obama Times of India
Obama slams Clinton's 'special ties' Times of India
Clinton opens up lead over Obama in new poll CNN Clinton at 48 percent, Obama at 26 percent ..... Clinton's support is up 8 percentage points from a similar poll conducted three weeks ago, while Obama, at 26 percent, is down 2 percentage points. .... Clinton later called Obama's answer "naive" -- a critique that may have struck a cord with her party's base. Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents now significantly favor Clinton to handle terrorism, the Iraq war and relations with "nations that are unfriendly to the United States." ....... A Newsweek poll suggests Clinton holds a 23-point lead, while the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put the lead at 21 points. ..... In early primary and caucus states like New Hampshire and Iowa, however, some polls show Clinton, Obama and former Sen. John Edwards virtually tied. And other state polls show Clinton with a lead, but one far smaller than national surveys like the latest USA Today/Gallup, Newsweek and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls.

Middle America, Meet The Hackers Forbes DefCon, the largest gathering of hackers, crackers and security professionals in the world ..... DefCon's true spirit: smart people getting together to mess around with technology. ...... organized cybergangs in Eastern Europe and Asia .... six federal employees revealed themselves in press conferences and panel discussions. More bizarrely, two federal agents were married during the conference's closing ceremony. ...... the "Titan Rain" attacks that penetrated the U.S. Department of Commerce and Department of State computers in past years. ....... "We simply don't take the law as a moral compass," he says. ...... Internet culture has always bent, and sometimes broken, the legal rules. ..... have now grown up and, like himself, launched legitimate careers in security with big-name tech companies ..... a passion for technology. It's thinking about what technology can do, rather than what it was originally intended to do
Who Paid for Sarkozy's Vacation? Forbes The estate can be rented for $30,000 a week ..... "In every situation, and even on vacation, he represents France" ..... "I'm in Wolfeboro because I have friends who have been coming here for years, who told me that it was rural America, the America we love, with forests, lakes and tranquility," Sarkozy said. "They have been coming for years, they rented a house, they invited us, period." ...... Sarkozy lost his temper with two American news photographers covering his vacation, jumping onto their boat and scolding them loudly in French.
Obama Can't Wait To Meet Rudy's Daughter CBS News
Giuliani child draws attention as Obama supporter Washington Post
Giuliani’s Daughter Shows Support for Obama, for a Time New York Times
Poll: Democrats favor Clinton over Obama Xinhua
Clinton proposes crackdown in mortgage market Reuters
Clinton proposes crackdown on predatory lenders WCAX
Edwards, Obama Press Lobby Issue Washington Post Edwards says lobbyists "rig the system." ..... "If you don't think lobbyists have too much influence in Washington, then I believe you've probably been in Washington too long."
Sen. Clinton slammed for taking $400K from lobbyists CNN
Giuliani calls for tougher laws to combat sexual abuse of children San Diego Union Tribune tougher laws against the sexual abuse of children and greater enforcement of regulations .... two of the biggest problems facing youngsters: sex abuse and drug use. ..... control an increasing international business of child pornography.

Sarkozy snaps at photographers while on US holiday Independent
10 things you should know about VoIP over wireless TechRepublic your VoIP service, which is usually far less than the cost of cell phone service and may offer free unlimited international calling, something you don’t get with most cellular plans. Lenovo or No, Linux Not There Yet Red Herring analysts say it’ll be years before desktop Linux can seriously threaten proprietary systems like Windows. .... “In terms of elegance and aesthetics, Microsoft and Apple are many years ahead of Linux.”
Lenovo to offer Linux on laptops BBC News Dell asked customers for suggestions for new products on the company's website: Linux PCs were the most-requested item. .... Linux can be freely distributed, modified and used by anyone who wants it. .... approximately 6% of computers users run Linux, similar to the numbers choosing Apple Macs.
Foods Tastes Better With McDonald's Logo, Kids Say Forbes

Large numbers of US weapons delivered to Iraq gone missing: report People's Daily Online
190000 US guns supplied to Iraqi forces missingIrish Examiner
GAO Report: 30 Percent Of US Weapons Missing In Iraq [] RTT News
Bush Differs With Karzai on Iran’s Role in Afghanistan New York Times Karzai characterized Iran as “a helper” .... Bush pointedly disagreed, saying, “I would be very cautious about whether the Iranian influence in Afghanistan is a positive force.” .... the Qaeda network had reconstituted itself in the mountainous territory along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
S Asia flood victims desperate for food, clean water Daily Times
Giuliani backs Obama San Diego Union Tribune
Pure Horserace: Romney Feels The Heat CBS News
Wal-Mart reaches deal with local company to enter India International Herald Tribune Wal-Mart Stores and India's Bharti Enterprises have reached a deal to jointly build wholesale outlets and manage a supply chain for retail stores across the country ...... India's booming, but much protected, retail business, which is currently dominated by an estimated 12 million mom and pop shops
Career women in Japan find a blocked path Since the Equal Employment Opportunity Law was passed in 1985, women have become a common sight on factory floors, at construction sites and behind the wheels of taxis. But they have had much less success reaching positions of authority, which remain the preserve of gray-suited salarymen. ..... women held 42.5 percent of managerial jobs in the United States in 2005 ...... the nation's notoriously demanding corporate culture, particularly its expectation of morning-to-midnight work hours. .... Even with cases of blatant discrimination, lawsuits remain rare because of a cultural aversion to litigation. Another big problem has been that the equal opportunity law is essentially toothless. ...... ingrained social attitudes about gender roles. ...... she is the only woman in a group of some 160 heads of Nissan suppliers. The first time she attended the group's twice-annual meetings, she says she was asked to wait in a room with secretaries. ...... she earns 10 percent to 20 percent less than men her age. Younger male colleagues ask her and other women to push elevator buttons for them and serve tea.
Darfur political process resumes after long deadlock Xinhua
Poll: Clinton widens lead on Obama USA Today
Latest USAT/Gallup Poll gives Clinton 22-point lead over Obama USA Today
The Obama Republican Iowa Debate The Gate - National Journal

Chelsea For Obama, Caroline For Obama

The first time I heard of a group called Chelsea For Obama, I am like, what's going on here? This is trouble. I mean, if Hillary can't even get her daughter excited about her run for the White House, what chance does she stand with the American people?

Ends up there is a neighborhood in Manhattan called Chelsea. What do I know? I hardly know names of many townships in my own borough. I guess that is still bad news for Hillary.

But now there is news Rudy Giuliani has a daughter called Caroline, and she is for Obama. Ouch.
"You better like ravioli!"

But don't just blame me. Hillary herself fell for the same when she was in Arkansas. She was First Lady. Chelsea had been born. Her political consultant Dick Morris had flown in from New York with a newspaper in hand. The newspaper was called Chelsea Clinton. Two neighborhoods Chelsea and Clinton in Manhattan had published a joint edition.

"Did they publish that in our daughter's honor?" Hillary asked.

Well t-h-a-t Chelsea happens to be for Obama.

By the way, the genius behind Chelsea For Obama is Molly Lombardi.



In The News

Is Giuliani’s Daughter an Obama Supporter? New York Times the way young adults socialize via the Internet ... her online profile suggested she supported Senator Barack Obama’s presidential bid. ...... On her profile in Facebook, the popular online social networking site, Ms. Giuliani, 17, listed her political views as “liberal” and noted her membership in a group called “Barack Obama (One Million Strong for Barack).” ........ She quit the Obama fan club at 6:01 a.m., and, after Slate posted its article, she took down her entire page. ........ “That’s very nice,” Mr. Obama said. “We think it’s wonderful that we are attracting support from young people all across the country. I can’t wait to meet her.” ..... Obama’s MySpace page shows more than 160,000 friends.
Giuliani's daughter 'backs Obama' Channel 4 News
Caroline Giuliani supports Barack Obama online Online Gambling Paper
Wal-Mart in joint venture for India MSNBC
Edwards, Obama Press Lobby Issue Washington Post
Obama, Edwards Criticize Clinton Washington Post
Caroline Giuliani: Obama Flip-flopper Village Voice
Yearly Kos: Clinton vs. Obama Yahoo! News while Hillary does not leave the room filled with warmth, she does leave a favorable impression as someone who is smart, disciplined, has a three-point plan for everything and generally knows what the heck she is talking about. ...... Whereas Hillary responds by ticking off details with the authority of a schoolmarm, Obama comes across as thoughtful - often conspicuously so, pausing even in the middle of an answer to gather his thoughts or offer some aside ..... He is much more well equipped, both as a matter of style and substance, to speak in longer form before live crowds. .... Clinton inspires confidence, while Obama just flat out inspires - and there is a discernable difference between the two.
Edwards Jabs At Former President Clinton Guardian Unlimited Edwards' complaints about the former president beloved by voters in his own party was a defiant move meant to highlight rival Hillary Rodham Clinton's relationship with special interests. ...... said the trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada was ``written by insiders in all three countries.''
Obama's camp reassures supporters Reuters is doing fine in early-voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. ..... Clinton, Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in a virtual tie in Iowa. ..... New Hampshire put Clinton and Obama at 31 percent apiece, and a poll by the same group in South Carolina gave Obama a 4 percent lead over Clinton in that state.
Obama attempts to draw contrast on lobbyists Boston Globe Two weeks into his spirited engagement with Hillary Clinton over foreign policy, Barack Obama today seized on a new perceived opening to sharpen their differences over lobbyists. ...... "While you're working in the fields, lobbyists are working in Congress to block the rural reforms America needs."

Damon's cash cow Bourne also a critical hit The Age "The Bourne movies just changed my career completely," Damon said today in Sydney. "They've made it possible to do all the movies that I basically want to do." ..... a bullet ridden CIA-trained killer who despite his almost superhero level skills - both intellectual and physical - has no idea who he is.
Romney, Republicans Attack Obama's Foreign Policy (Update1) Bloomberg
Romney takes aim at Obama Chicago Daily Herald
Barack Obama Courts the Faithful AlterNet Barack Obama got out of the car a block early so everyone would see him walk to the picket line. ..... a gray BlackBerry holstered between black pants and white dress shirt ..... The crowd cheered, and after a Spanish translation, cheered again. .... With more primary money in the bank than fund-raising juggernaut Hillary Clinton, Mr. Obama has now set about the more fundamental business of cementing the loyalty of the Democratic Party base. ....... in the first two or three months you are so busy building infrastructure ...... critical issues -- unionization, gun control, civil rights, progressive taxation and abortion rights - ...... is tackling them aggressively. ...... "The way our tax code is now structured has exacerbated inequality in the society." ...... On a Sunday morning, Mr. Obama's motorcade arrived at the Vernon Park Church of God in the beleaguered Far South Side of Chicago. In the blocks around the church, bored-looking boys walked around with jeans cinched around their thighs under long white T-shirts. A woman in a wheelchair propelled herself against a red traffic light using her one good foot like a skateboarder. Abandoned lots surrounded empty restaurants with names like "Steaks and Lemonade." Here, gun violence had touched many residents personally, including the church's own pastor, whose mother and brother were murdered. Mr. Obama had come to express outrage, as he uniquely can in this election, about the pall of gang violence that hangs over many black communities. ....... Obama has at times disappointed on the stump with seemingly deliberate displays of oratorical restraint ....... But in black churches, like in Selma back in March and here in Chicago, he has tended to display the full sweep his rhetorical skill. ........ advocated the permanent reinstatement of a ban on assault weapons and more stringent regulations on gun dealers. ........ "And there is only one reason that hasn't been done and that is the power of the gun lobby in Washington," said Mr. Obama. ........ If you want to go hunt, go hunt. Nobody is trying to take your rifle or your shotgun away. ........ could well help him with the powerful hotel workers union in Nevada
Obama stands by comments that angered Pakistan Arizona Republic He also sought to clarify his assertion that the use of nuclear weapons in such an attack would be "off the table." Obama says "every military expert" knows it would be better to use conventional weapons in that situation.