Why now?
Because you are not married to a former, popular two-term president who is still young. You have to get in early. And because you retain your Senate seat, the campaigning all the way to summer will be rather light. There is family, there is the Senate, and there will be the campaign.
So you announce and you lie low.
The man has to say it. He has to do it. It has to get official. He has to run for President Of The United States. Finally we will see a new century dawn. This is to be a brave new world now on.
McCain, A Piece Of Cake
Obama competes with Clinton, Kennedy, FDR, Lincoln (that only good Republican) and Jefferson. McCain is a minor nuisance along the way. The goal is greatness. The presidency is but a pedestal, a launch pad for that greatness.
McCain had much to offer his country when he was in Vietnam, perhaps, and he did. But what does he have to offer now? Nothing.
McCain's only thing will be to be hawkish on Iraq. That recipe will fail again like in 2006. De ja vu.
Hillary Is Methodical
She works hard. She is disciplined. So you are going to have to match her and best her in the money and organization departments. Better ideas will not suffice. And she is smart herself.
How To Tackle Hillary
- You have to even her out on money and organization and outdo her on ideas and execution. How you manage your campaign is key. Can't afford obvious mistakes. (The Matrix, Democratic Vision For The 21st Century, Policy Making The Matrix Way)
- You can't secretly hope to have her as your running mate or become her running mate and still beat her. (Eliot Spitzer For Running Mate)
- You have to turn her number one strength into her number one weakness. Is Hillary Bill Clinton's cameo, Billie Clinton's third term denied by the constitution? What is that guy doing behind the scenes, pulling the strings? You admire Bill Clinton, so do I, but he is fair game if he shows up for the fight. I love the guy, but do the American people really want to give him a third term? Enough dynasty politics. George Washington had a republic in mind. Besides, after the 1990s, is it not time to move the national debate from the person of Bill Clinton to, say, universal health?
- The country carries plenty of justified guilt on both race and gender. Show race is the bigger issue, but never directly. You are more like Michael Jordan than Martin Luther King to most white folks. Leave it at that.
- Plan on a 50% female cabinet, a third of whom are non-white. Neutralize the first woman president thing. Have much visible female presence on your campaign team.
- This is a marathon. Take the long view. Don't let her daunt you. The Clinton Machine is a myth in this era of YouTube videos, blogs and email. The emphasis has to be on the DirectConnect now possible between the candidate and the individual voter. She started her run by talking up to a whole bunch of pols across the country. She is methodical. That is her strong point. But then her weakness is she is not all too spontaneous. She is not known to improvise a whole lot. She can lack freshness that way. She might lose severely on the excitement factor.
- Cash on the generation gap, your number one strength. Hillary does not do email. Remind people, this is a new century.
- Granted both of you like each other, but stay ready for the ugly. Attack ads will be traded for sure. That is in the nature of a presidential campaign. Too much is at stake. When you get hit, you hit back. Don't hesitate. Sometimes you go on the offensive. Stay strong, civil but strong. I don't think you two will enage in personal attacks. But you sure are going to have to attack her positions, and her leadership flaws. For example, her ways when working on health care were too secretive. That is anathema to the political process.
- You are not going to get another chance to run for president. This is your one chance.
- Iraq, Iraq, Iraq. Hammer that point home. That cost Bush the Congress, that will cost Hillary the White House, and that will cost McCain the White House. How smart is Hillary really if she has been behind a dumb war?
Hillary's candidacy necessarily sparks a debate on gender, and that is good. It is best when race and gender get talked about at once.
Dean And You
January 2007 is a great time to start your campaign. It is possible Bill Clinton will convince Hillary to not throw her hat into the ring until say October. That's what Kerry did, and look how well it worked for him. October also worked for Clinton back in the days. And Howard Dean burned out.
Don't buy that. But don't repeat the Dean mistake. The guy used up most of his money even before Iowa showed up. Do not, do not do anything like that. If you can't handle a $50 million budget, how can you handle a few trillion?
But other than that, do the Dean thing. Build The Matrix. Raise money the grassroots way, but also the fundraiser dinnner/lunch way.
And skip another Dean mistake. Do the policy wonk thing three out of four days of the week. (Policy Making The Matrix Way)
This is a 10 year undertaking. Keep that perspective. You can't burn out. If you burn out in one year, you don't deserve the subsequent eight, or nine, depends on how you look at it.
January 2007 is the best timing. Do it at least one week before the State Of The Unioin. Don't do it on Oprah. Instead appear on Oprah in the aftermath. Call a press conference. And give a 20 minute speech, and then take a few, select questions, and it is all over.
You just need a few basic themes to emphasize until summer. But you have to start signing up the grassroots volunteers now.
October in South Carolia, Nevada. November in New Hampshire. After Thanksgiving, camp put in Iowa. I have been all over Iowa, so have you. It is a nice little stretch.
A Different Kind Of Campaign, A Scientific Campaign
Me
I can't get on your payroll. You could not pay me enough. I could be your Campaign Manager. (The Virus Of The April Revolution) But I can't. I just want to be a friend. Kind of like a shadow Campaign Manager. I just want to be one of the most visible stars in The Matrix, that is all. Besides, I can sometimes get radioactive, politically speaking. So it's best I am not formally part of your team. And I am not going anywhere outside the city boundaries. I already been everywhere. There you go.
I am no pol. I am an aspiring entrepreneur. I watch politics like some people watch sports. I don't have baseball. Politics is my baseball.
Stick To The Basics
- Be yourself.
- Read a lot. Continue to be a policy wonk. Substance and style both matter.
- Spend much time with your family. That is good for you, your family, and your candidacy.
- Eat well, exercise regularly, sleep plenty. Some foolish candidates think when they mess such things up that means they are giving their all to the campaign. Not so.
McDream is your middle name. Barack McDream McImagination Obama.
