Showing posts with label zelensky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label zelensky. Show all posts

Friday, August 23, 2024

Modi In Ukraine

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Wednesday, July 31, 2024

The Military-Industrial Complexes In The US And Russia Are Major Culprits In The Ukraine War

The Military-Industrial Complexes in the US and Russia: Major Culprits in the Ukraine War



In the tragic and ongoing conflict in Ukraine, many factors have contributed to the violence and suffering. While geopolitical ambitions, historical tensions, and nationalistic fervor are often highlighted, another critical yet less discussed element is the role of the military-industrial complexes in both the United States and Russia. These powerful entities, driven by profit and influence, have significantly shaped the trajectory of the war, complicating efforts towards peace and stability.

Understanding the Military-Industrial Complex



The term "military-industrial complex" was popularized by former U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower in his farewell address in 1961. It refers to the close and often symbiotic relationship between a nation's military, its defense industry, and its government. This complex wields considerable influence over national policy, with the potential to prioritize defense spending and military action over diplomatic and peaceful solutions.

The US Military-Industrial Complex: Profit and Influence



The United States boasts one of the largest and most advanced military-industrial complexes in the world. Comprising major defense contractors, lobbyists, and government officials, this network exerts a powerful influence over American foreign and defense policies. In the context of the Ukraine war, the US military-industrial complex has played a significant role in shaping the country's response.
  1. Arms Sales and Military Aid: The U.S. has provided substantial military aid to Ukraine, including advanced weaponry, intelligence, and training. While this support is often justified as necessary to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression, it also benefits American defense contractors, who see increased sales and profits.
  2. Lobbying and Policy Shaping: Defense contractors and their lobbyists have a vested interest in promoting policies that sustain or escalate military engagements. The conflict in Ukraine provides a justification for continued or increased defense spending, which benefits these corporations financially.
  3. Media and Public Perception: The military-industrial complex also influences media narratives, shaping public opinion to support military interventions. By framing the conflict in terms of good versus evil, and emphasizing the need for a strong response, these narratives can marginalize diplomatic alternatives.

The Russian Military-Industrial Complex: Power and Propaganda



In Russia, the military-industrial complex is similarly entrenched, though it operates within a different political and economic context. The Russian government maintains close ties with its defense industry, which serves both as a crucial economic sector and a tool of state power.
  1. State-Controlled Defense Sector: Unlike in the U.S., Russia's defense industry is more centralized and state-controlled. Major arms manufacturers are often directly or indirectly owned by the state, aligning their interests with those of the government. The war in Ukraine has been a catalyst for ramping up production and testing new weaponry, benefiting the military-industrial sector.
  2. Economic Motives: For Russia, the military-industrial complex also serves as a vital source of revenue and employment. Sanctions and economic isolation have limited Russia's options, making the defense industry an even more critical component of its economy. The war in Ukraine has provided a pretext for increasing defense expenditures, bolstering this sector.
  3. Propaganda and Nationalism: The Russian government has utilized the conflict to foster nationalism and support for the state. The military-industrial complex is part of this propaganda machine, portraying military might as a symbol of national pride and sovereignty.

The Consequences: Escalation and Entrenchment



The involvement of the military-industrial complexes in both the U.S. and Russia has several profound consequences for the Ukraine war:
  1. Escalation of Violence: The provision of advanced weaponry and military support has escalated the conflict, making it more lethal and difficult to resolve. The profit motive of defense contractors, coupled with geopolitical interests, incentivizes continued or increased military engagement.
  2. Obstacles to Peace: The vested interests of the military-industrial complexes create significant obstacles to diplomatic efforts. Both in the U.S. and Russia, powerful actors benefit from the status quo or from an escalation, rather than a resolution, of the conflict.
  3. Humanitarian Impact: The war's human toll is immense, with thousands killed, millions displaced, and widespread destruction. The priorities of the military-industrial complexes, focused on profit and power, often overshadow humanitarian concerns, exacerbating the suffering.

Conclusion: A Call for Accountability



The role of the military-industrial complexes in the Ukraine war is a stark reminder of the dangers posed by the intertwining of defense industries and state power. As the conflict drags on, it is crucial to recognize and challenge the influence of these entities, advocating for policies that prioritize peace, diplomacy, and human well-being over profit and militarism.

Only by addressing these underlying dynamics can we hope to find a lasting resolution to the conflict and prevent similar situations in the future. It is time for a global reckoning with the military-industrial complexes that, too often, drive nations towards war instead of peace.

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Tuesday, February 14, 2023

14: Ukraine

เคช्เคฐเคงाเคจเคฎเคจ्เคค्เคฐी เคฎोเคฆीเคฒे เค—เคฐे เค…เคกाเคจीเคธँเค—เค•ो เคธเคฎ्เคฌเคจ्เคงเค•ो เคฌเคšाเค‰



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Thursday, October 20, 2022

Contours Of A Possible Peace In Ukraine: India Has A Role To Play

Contours Of A Possible Peace In Ukraine: India Has A Role To Play

The choice is not between the military option and the political option. The only choice is the political option. Every war concludes with peace negotations. You can take that option early, or you can take that option late. You can negotiate peace when there has been little damage, a lot of damage, or total damage. It is smart to move early.

Russia has had grievances. It fancies itself the only country being able to stand up to the United States, the supposed sole superpower.

This is a multi-polar world. The US ceased being the sole superpower a long time ago.

Putin fishes in conspiracy theories. You read zany brainy ideas on the internet and think it is not possible anybody believes these. But Putin has been waging an entire war with QAnon type material. You don’t wage war because some people seem to be working for transgender rights in the United States! Are you not secure in your masculinity, Mr. Putin?

Russia is a smaller economy than Italy. Italy is no challenge to the United States. The nuclear weapons Russia and the US have are only good for mutually assured destruction. That is not challenge. That is suicide.

The US is a challenge to itself. When a large power starts printing money recklessly, it is on its way out. World history attests to that trend.

I think standing up to the US is important. That is why India has kept buying Russian oil. The Indian government answers to the Indian voters. Those Indian voters can not survive substantially higher oil prices.

Ethnic Russian minorities in countries like Ukraine must have their grievances. But they must also pale in comparison to the grievances of the ethnic minorities inside the Russian Federation. Putin’s so-called mobilization has been calls for genocide on several ethnic groups inside Russia. Dress up, pick up that rifle and go die, all of you.

If Putin is allowed to change borders at will, half the borders in Africa might come into question. Political forest fires might crop up in many parts of the globe. The US-Canada border might be the only settled border on the planet. There is no arguing a line of latitude.

Putin is a dictator. If you can not speak freely, if you can not peacefully assemble and protest, you live in a dictatorship. Russians live in a dictatorship. And they know it.

Putin’s military misadventure in Ukraine is how dictatorships work. The supposed strongman has to keep making the moves of strength or his regime will collapse. Putin going into Ukraine is Putin wanting 20 more years of power inside Russia.

Threatening nuclear strikes is enough offense. Putin does not need to drop a nuclear bomb somewhere for the world to impose much tougher sanctions on the regime. Putin should not be allowed to issue threats.

The moment that threat might become credible, Putin will put himself under tremendous pressure. Somebody in his inner circles might come to conclude getting rid of Putin is the only way to survive. Why die with the madman? But that can not be the world’s plan. The world needs to intervene and make peace.

You don’t make peace with friends. By definition you make peace with enemies.

Putin might prefer China, because China is not neutral. China is a Russia waiting to happen. Look at what just happened in Taiwan. Putin might prefer Turkey, because Turkey is a small power.

But the best candidate to make peace is India, and more specifically the Indian trio Modi, Jaishankar, and Doval. You don’t make peace by asking for permission from the US, or Russia, or Ukraine. You proactively make peace. You go in because you don’t want your people to pay more for oil, because you don’t want Africa to pay more for wheat, because you want to take the atom bomb out of the equation for the world. A country that aspires for a veto power in the UN Security Council should actively engage with all parties and force peace upon them, against their will if necessary. You can always name and shame. Heck, you could shame the military-industrial complex in the United States. To a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Defense contractors get to make money, but not by taking the world to the brink of nuclear catastrophe.

Peace means to demilitarize all contested areas. Russia needs to agree to get its troops out of all areas that it did not have in 2013. Ukraine also has to agree to do the same. UN peacekeeping troops will have to step in to maintain law and order in the said regions.

If Russia does not agree to this withdrawal, then there will be no peace. The Ukrainian army is on schedule to hand over an Afghanistan to Putin possibly by winter, or perhaps Spring. That could lead to a collapse of the Russian Federation. Russia could become the size of Ukraine.

Then the contested areas have to be demarcated. The contested areas are not Crimea plus the four regions. The contested areas are only Crimea and the original two contested regions. Ukraine has to be willing to hold Scotland style referendums. I think Ukraine stands to win them. It can rejig its constitution to institute full-fledged federalism and great autonomy to those regions.

Of course there will be campaigning. And Ukraine gets to convince people that they will be better off as part of the European Union.

Ukraine could agree to not join NATO for a 10-year period with guarantees from the major powers that its borders after the referendums will not be violated. In 10 years NATO will likely have become irrelevant with no help from Putin.

There will be no peace unless war crimes are investigated. A neutral committee could look into that. There will be no peace unless Russia pays for the rebuilding of the damage it has done. Putin has plenty of money in the western banks.

There are those who want Putin to go. Russian troops moving back to Russia brings back all those Russian men who have fled the motherland to avoid getting drafted. I think they will take to the streets when they are back. But that is not the business of the peace process. That is a separate topic. Whether Putin goes or stays is for the global Russian population to decide.



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Tuesday, October 04, 2022

Possibility For Peace

If Russia were to withdraw all its forces from Ukrainian territories - and yes, that includes Crimea - then peace moves can be made. But is there anyone on earth who is capable of homing in that point to Putin? The four recently "annexed" regions and Crimea could be demilitarized and referendums held in each territory under international supervision. This is Scotland style democracy, and if Ukraine is a democracy it should not be afraid of this proppsal.

The missing piece is that noone seems to be attempting this. Xi Jinping, Modi, Erdogan, Macron, Olaf should all be pushing for this. If you push this proposal hard, and Putin does not accept, then he still loses politically.

The talk of nuclear armageddon is adults on both sides having turned this into a video game. The political conversation is missing. War hardware is ruling the day on both sides. If you do this, I will do that. If I do that, I think you might do this.

There is no such thing called a limited nuclear strike. Right now there is time to think, ponder, discuss, elaborate, communicate. The very first nuclear strike puts the world on a one way escalator.

There is a slim chance that as Putin escalates his rhetoric, some on his side might depose him. But that talk is no strategy. It is more like fantasy. A legitimate strategy is one where all possible global players actively weigh in on the situation.

If all Russian forces were to withdraw and get out of Ukrainian territory, that would deal a body blow to the Putin regime inside Russia. A Saddam regime necessarily needs to enter Kuwait to maintain internal cohesion.

Using every possible channel, private and public, to make the offer of globally supervised referendums should the Russian forces withdraw will not require a cessation of Ukrainian military efforts. If Putin does not accept, that will legitimize Ukrainian military efforts. But the effort for peace has to be ceaselessly made. Right now there is time. After the first nuclear strike, which would be a suicidal move for Putin, there will be much less time. But a suicidal maniac could do much damage before dying. Hoping for a breakdown in the Russian chain of command and orders for nuclear strike being disobeyed is not a sound strategy.

For all the decades that the planet has had nucler weapons, this is as close to an all out nuclear war as the world has ever been. Compared to this threat, a rise in food and oil prices or even a cold winter are small potatoes. For much of its existence, Europe has not had heating oil and gas. Nuclear radiation is another matter.

Xi Jinping, Modi, Erdogan, Macron, Olaf, Merkel, Blair, Clinton, Obama should not wait for inviations from either side. They should all actively engage both sides.

Europe is not neutral. China is not. Turkey is too small a country. The Russian-Indian friendship has a long history. Bollywood is big in Russia. Putin and Modi have a genuine rapport. Modi is best positioned to take the lead. If you want veto power, make peace happen. Earn it. Actively wage peace. You have to have a concrete proposal before you talk to either party.

Deescalation is an acute need of the hour.

It is possible minority Russians living inside Ukraine face discrimination, but that political problem has only a peaceful political solution. Minorities inside Russia face the same problem. Nuclear war is no solution.

Even if the referendum results might go in Ukraine's favor, Kyiv should at the outset guarantee political safety nets to protect the rights of Russian minorities.

If hate had a nuclear button solution, then hate would be as easy to solve as the energy crisis. But that is not so. You don't add super hate to hate. Don't try to douse a campfire with a forest fire. Tone it down.

The peace proposal would involve Putin paying for a rebuilding of the damage done. And an impartial look into war crimes allegations.



India's Modi says ready to contribute to peace efforts in Ukraine India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that his country is ready to contribute to peace efforts in the ongoing conflict with Russia that has raged for seven months. "He expressed his firm conviction that there can be no military solution to the conflict and conveyed India's readiness to contribute to any peace efforts," the Indian prime minister's office said in a statement after a telephone conversation between Modi and Zelenskiy.

Kremlin welcomes Elon Musk proposal for Ukraine settlement denounced by Kyiv The Kremlin praised Tesla boss Elon Musk on Tuesday for suggesting a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, after Kyiv rebuked Musk for proposing terms it views as rewarding Russia. ........ "It is very positive that somebody like Elon Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of this situation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a conference call. "Compared to many professional diplomats, Musk is still searching for ways to achieve peace. And achieving peace without fulfilling Russia's conditions is absolutely impossible," he added. ........ In a Twitter poll posted on Monday, the Tesla boss proposed Ukraine permanently cede Crimea to Russia, that new referendums be held under U.N. auspices to determine the fate of Russian-controlled territory, and that Ukraine agree to neutrality. Kyiv says it will never agree to cede land taken by force, and lawful referendums cannot be held in occupied territory where many people have been killed or driven out. After Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces last week, Kyiv said it was applying to join NATO, and would not negotiate with Russia as long as Putin is president.

Will Russia use nuclear weapons? Putin's warnings explained By claiming 18% of Ukraine as part of Russia, the room for nuclear threats increases as Putin could cast any attack on these territories as an attack on Russia itself. ....... Russia's nuclear doctrine allows for a nuclear strike after "aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened". ....... "He is bluffing right now," said Yuri Fyodorov, a military analyst based in Prague. "But what will happen in a week or a month from now is difficult to say - when he understands the war is lost." ....... Burns, though, said U.S. intelligence had no "practical evidence" that Putin was moving towards using tactical nuclear weapons imminently. ........ Although Russia has specialised nuclear forces trained to fight in such an apocalyptic battlefield, it is unclear how its army of regular troops, mercenaries, drafted reservists and local militias would cope. ...... U.S. President Joe Biden's option would include a non-military response, responding with another nuclear strike that would risk escalation, and responding with a conventional attack that could involve Washington in a direct war with Moscow. ........ Retired General and former CIA chief David Petraeus said that if Moscow used nuclear weapons, then the United States and its NATO allies would destroy Russian troops and equipment in Ukraine - and sink its entire Black Sea fleet. ........

both Moscow and Washington have enough firepower to destroy the world many times over.

........ The U.S. tactical nuclear weapons have adjustable yields of 0.3 to 170 kilotons (the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima was equivalent to about 15 kilotons of dynamite).

Switzerland has 'systemic' racism issues, UN experts say Switzerland has a serious systemic problem with racism against people of African descent, according to a report presented to the U.N. Human Rights Council on Monday, giving a broad range of examples from police brutality to a children's game. ......... "The ubiquity and impunity of this misconduct indicates a serious systemic problem exists," it said. ....... Switzerland's ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva broadly accepted the findings in comments to the council, although questioned the experts' use of a limited number of examples to draw wider conclusions. Landlocked Switzerland was never a colonial power but its banks, traders and municipalities invested heavily and benefited from the transatlantic triangular trade, the report said. ........ It noted efforts to raise public awareness about aspects of Swiss history, such as a petition and debate around the removal of the statue of a banker whose fortune relied on exploitation of enslaved Africans, in the canton of Neuchatel. However, others remained valorised such as Louis Agassiz, an advocate of scientific racism, who has an Alpine peak named after him.

Swiss playground games persist such as "Who is afraid of the Black man?", which have a racially discriminatory effect, the experts said.



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Monday, July 11, 2022

Modi And Jaishankar Must Proactively Step In To Make Peace In Ukraine

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