Showing posts with label wto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wto. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Trade War Temporary Truce: Phase 1

As part of the deal, the United States agreed to cancel the 15-percent tariffs that had been scheduled to take effect on December 15 on $160 billion worth of Chinese goods, and to halve an earlier set of tariffs on another $120 billion worth of goods. In exchange, China agreed to increase its purchase of U.S. products by $200 billion in the next two years. ....... To reach the next phase will require each side to determine what fundamental concessions it might be willing to offer the other. ........

Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports will remain, as will China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.

..... Washington presented several Chinese pledges as concessions to U.S. concerns about Beijing’s trade practices. But these promised measures are either vague or extensions of policies already in place. Indeed, China had initiated most, if not all, of these measures—including steps to reform foreign ownership limits, currency exchange policies, and intellectual property protections—well before the trade war began. ........ As early as 2017, China had begun lifting foreign ownership restrictions—limitations that prevented foreigners from having controlling interests or, in some cases, any interest at all in firms operating in China—in many industries, ranging from financial services to the automotive sector, with the aim of removing all limits in a few years. In financial services, including banking, securities, asset management, and insurance, majority foreign ownership was allowed for the first time in June 2018, and ownership limits (now at 51 percent) are set to be completely removed in 2020. Ironically, the pace of change might have been faster if not for the trade war, which forced China to withhold some reforms. ......... Since 1994, China’s central bank has usually intervened to prop up the yuan, not to weaken it. ....... Regarding intellectual property, China has significantly tightened rules and enforcement in recent years. Beijing set up specialized intellectual property courts in three major cities in 2014 and intermediate-level tribunals in 17 provinces in 2017. In the last four years, China’s Supreme Court has issued guidelines and policies on the judicial protection of intellectual property rights. These have strengthened the courts’ jurisdiction over intellectual property infringement cases and provided a framework for damages. The Supreme Court inaugurated its own permanent intellectual property court on January 1, 2019. ........... China’s total intellectual property payments to foreigners have grown on average 20 percent per year since 2000, far outpacing the median growth rate of 9.5 percent across all countries, according to a study by Shang-jin Wei, a professor at Columbia University. The improved regime of intellectual property protection helps explain why China attracts more foreign direct investment than any other country except the United States.......... The trade war has so far failed to achieve Washington’s stated objectives—namely, to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States and narrow the country’s trade deficit.

By September 2019, U.S. manufacturing had sunk to a more than ten-year low, and it has continued to weaken since. The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world has ballooned from $544 billion in 2016 to $691 billion in the 12 months ending in October.

.......... Tariffs on Chinese goods have backfired, in that U.S. consumers have paid almost their entire cost ....... China’s export prices to the United States have not really changed since the trade war began. .......

There are, of course, no winners in this trade war, and to think otherwise is delusional.

........ The longer the trade war drags on, the more damage both countries and the world economy will sustain. Already, global supply chains are disrupted. More consequential will be the oft-talked-about “decoupling” of U.S. and Chinese technological systems. Technology companies used to boast that “the world is our market.” No longer. ............

the ten largest U.S. semiconductor companies earn a combined revenue in China ($79.3 billion) nearly three times their sales in the United States ($28.1 billion)

. All of these firms are now forecasting significantly lower sales to China........ With Phase II negotiations ahead, a wide gap still separates the two sides on major issues, and the prospect of serious compromise remains distant. ......... Neither side has provided concrete details on what it hopes to achieve in the next round of negotiations. But China’s main objectives are unequivocal. Beijing wants Washington to remove all the tariffs imposed since the trade war began, and it will be prepared to reciprocate in kind. It wants the United States to drop its sanctions on Chinese technology firms such as Huawei, and to relax restrictions on Chinese investments in the United States. ......... The ultimate goal of the next stage of negotiations for both sides should be very clear: to reach an equitable deal that lowers barriers to trade and investment.

If both countries follow the same rule-based system, freer trade lowers consumer prices, promotes competition, improves efficiency, stimulates innovation, and ultimately leads to greater economic growth.

In the service of this aim, each country must determine what its real objectives are and prepare to make important concessions. ........... The United States must decide whether what it really wants is access to the Chinese market and better prices for U.S. consumers, or whether it simply wants to contain China’s rise at all costs. Washington cannot have it both ways. The former aim could ultimately lead to a trade deal, but the latter never will. ........

For its part, Beijing must finally decide what to do with the most pernicious holdover from its planned economy days: China’s inefficient state-owned sector.

....... China’s own stated goal is to let the market be the decisive force in the allocation of resources in the country. China should continue to restructure, reform, downsize, and privatize the state sector in accordance with this goal, not just because doing so may entice the United States to stop the trade war but because such reforms will be good for China. Whenever China has undertaken market reforms, for example in 1992 and in the early 2000s, its economic growth has surged. Conversely, its growth suffers when the pace of reform slows down. .........

If Phase II leads the United States and China to more trade and greater economic cooperation than they had before the trade war, then both countries will have managed to win.



Weijian Shan Prior to TPG Capital, Mr Shan worked, between 1993 and 1998 at JP Morgan as a Managing Director, concurrently serving as its China Representative, Chief Representative for JP Morgan Beijing Office and Chief Representative for JP Morgan Shanghai Office......... Mr Shan was a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania for six years before joining JP Morgan........ Mr Shan worked as an investment officer at the World Bank in Washington D.C. in 1987.......Mr Shan received a Ph.D. and a Masters of Arts in economics from University of California at Berkeley, an MBA from University of San Francisco.
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Sunday, December 15, 2019

Trade War: US, EU, China, Japan

The trade war is a proven recipe for a global recession or worse and possible political mayhem. Trump's trade war with the EU bores ill for global trade because the EU has none of the China issues, supposedly. Bilateral trade is a primitive concept. It is like ditching digital money and going back to silver coins.

A global depression would create a new wave of fascism across the planet. Irrationality will come to rule.

The only hope is that all this saber-rattling is posturing and will soon give way to common sense. But there are no such signs yet on the horizon.

The idea that every country and every group of countries have been unfair to the US on trade ...... the whole idea of "fair trade" has been that the US has been unfair to the rest of the world, especially to the poorest countries. Racist white nationalism will also have you believe that you feel sorry for the whites because they have suffered so much from racism.

Brexit? Aexit?

The sensible thing to do would be to attempt WTO reform. Killing the WTO takes us back to the 1930s. So far the global economy's resilience built through trade has held. But that resilience can stretch only so much.

Trump's trade temper tantrums are insanely destructive. And his traditionally pro-trade party is going all the way with him. It is strange. This might not be the first time politics trumps sound economic theory.

A trade war with Europe would be larger and more damaging than Washington’s dispute with China Data from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative shows that in 2018, the U.S. imported $683.9 billion of EU goods and $557.9 billion from China. ..... There have already been tariffs on European steel and aluminum — which led the bloc to impose duties of 25% on $2.8 billion of U.S. products in June 2018, and, there’s an ongoing dispute regarding Airbus and Boeing — but experts believe a wider spat with Europe would be much more damaging than the current tit-for-tat with China. ....... “In 2018, the U.S. exported more than three times more to the EU than to China,” Hense said, adding that the region could therefore hit back hard against Washington. ..... “The rules of international trade, which we have developed over the years hand-in-hand with our American partners, cannot be violated without a reaction from our side” ...... Both economies are slowing down, and the cyclical effect of the tariffs is likely to be pretty strong ..... Speaking at the U.S. Senate in mid-July, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that “crosscurrents, such as trade tensions and concerns about global growth, have been weighing on economic activity and the outlook.” .......

the business models of multinational firms is in danger as a result of a potential U.S.- EU trade war

...... “Much of the (EU-U.S.) trade takes place within firms rather than between them … (as a result) when you impose tariffs between the U.S. and Europe, you end up raising the prices for consumers and complicating the way goods are assembled in both places, as in the U.S.-China case, but you also end up disrupting the profitability of the business models for large multinationals,” he said. ...... “Since many, if not most of those large multinationals are American, this is going to put a further drag on the U.S. economy” ....... “A trade war between the U.S. and Europe would be more challenging than a trade war between the U.S. and China because it would weaken U.S. multinationals, reduce the size of the markets U.S. firms can access, and create incentives for U.S. firms to divest from their foreign assets and so unleash further foreign competition”.....“In other words, it would undo all the structural advantages that successive U.S. administrations created since the end of the Second World War”

How Trump May Finally Kill the WTO

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Friday, June 28, 2019

US, China, Milky Way, Andromeda



This so-called US-China trade war I compare to the future projected collision between the Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxies. This clash is political. At some level, it was inevitable. It had to happen. And there is no going back. We will end up at some new equilibrium. Both powers will change in the process. The world itself will change. I think the primary casualty will be the nation-state itself. There will be no Milky Way left. There will be no Andromeda left. Something new will form.

The WTO is only as strong as its two largest trading partners will let it be. And there the train has already left the station. This tussle necessarily asks for fundamental reform of the WTO. But the US will not be the sole power shaping that new form. This tussle creates an opportunity for many powers who are represented in the G20 grouping to flex their muscle and wake up to the fact that they do have a seat at the table.

The elephant in the room, though, is technology. The US demands Huawei deliver on issues where the US technology giants themselves have a poor record. Privacy and security issues plague the tech sector like plastic waste in the Pacific. Here I propose the creation of a T100, a grouping of the top 100 technology firms of the world measured by market cap that meet on the sidelines of G20 and take the lead on issues of privacy and security. Trump asking Huawei to offer ironclad guarantees on security is like that emperor who demanded a flooded river to stop, just stop. Huawei alone can't do it any more than Google and Facebook have been able to. The CIA has got to be the top stealth organization when it comes to cyber snooping. I would not be surprised if the Chinese are a close second. They both take advantage of the security flaws in hardware and software that are extremely hard to patch.

5G is way more monumental than any road, or bridge, or port, or rail China can build with its Belt And Road Initiative. 5G is that infrastructure that will finally level the playing field for the Global South. Trump cannot be allowed to stand in the way of 5G deployment. On the other hand, take stock of all the privacy and security issues the world has had to encounter over the past 25 years and multiply that by 100. Much faster internet, much more ubiquitous internet will mean greater challenges for privacy and security. Here the T100 needs to take the lead. There are technological solutions. There are common standards to agree on. There is also room for law enforcement. But no nation state is at the center of this debate.



There is no way out for China from this trade war than through some major structural reforms which, by the way, would be good for the Chinese economy. Some of the structural reforms that are being demanded will make sure state funds do not go to state-owned enterprises that are losing money on massive scales. Such moves will make China more efficient and more competitive.

The US will also see structural changes. The 2020 election will see the rise of the Social Democrat. The US will likely go for Medicare For All. The US will become more like China on education and health.

And there's the all-important Clean Energy. On that, the two powers must fully cooperate. The problem is too big for any one of them to go solo.

In the clash of the two powers, that at some level was inevitable, both will fundamentally change and will become more like each other. But when the dust settles both will have become unrecognizable from their current vantage points.

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Monday, June 10, 2019

The WTO And The Regional Trading Blocs



The WTO has ushered in a new era of prosperity for the planet with a record number of people climbing out of poverty. That part has worked. The WTO has to be treated as a floor on which regional groups of countries can hope to build deeper trade relationships. Countries in the west Pacific are doing exactly that. The continent of Africa has been moving towards a free trade zone of its own. All these add to the WTO.

What makes Trump's tactics different is that they take away from the WTO. He wants to deal with countries one at a time. He thinks he can mete out unequal treatment in the process.

The problem with that approach is you are putting political whim above sound economic theory. The economic theory behind trade is sound. Trade does lead to rises in productivity.

But the WTO has not been designed to narrow income inequality. But that is like saying the Department of Education does not seem to be doing anything about health. Well, it has been designed for education, not health. That is no argument against health.

Trump is trying to go backward in time. He wants to take America and the world to an era without the WTO. That was not a good era. Instead of thinking what the next stage in America's economic growth is, he wants to go back to an era when America's trade with China was minuscule.

The tragedy is, there are plenty of smart people in America who have been thinking about what the next stage of economic growth for America is. But Trump is utterly uncurious.


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Friday, May 31, 2019

The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June

Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?

  • Both parties agree to roll back all tariffs immediately. 
  • The US ends its harassment of Huawei, although it could choose to not use Huawei equipment for its 5G efforts. China lays to rest its rare earth minerals threats. 
  • China agrees to a set of structural reforms and agrees to a review of the progress every two years. 
  • China agrees to buy substantially more agricultural products from the US. 
  • China agrees to additional purchases to the tune of $30 billion. 
  • Both powers agree to call a meeting of the WTO for a new round of negotiations with all countries of the world participating. The US takes all its grievances to the WTO. The negotiations might last a few years. 
  • The two powers organize a gathering of the top 100 technology companies of the world for a Privacy And Security Summit along the lines of the Rio Summit in 1992 for the environment on the sidelines of the G20 Summit next year. The top 20 economies and the top 100 tech companies thrash out solutions. How much of it is about agreeing on common standards? How much of it is about lawmaking and law enforcement? How could the law enforcement agencies of the world cooperate? How much of it is technical? How much is beyond reach and awaiting further advances in technology? 
  • The T100 is a permanent forum meeting annually on the sidelines of G20. 



No President Is Above the Law First, a hostile foreign government attacked our 2016 election to help candidate Donald Trump get elected. Second, candidate Donald Trump welcomed that help. Third, when the federal government tried to investigate, now-President Donald Trump did everything he could to delay, distract, and otherwise obstruct that investigation....... That’s a crime. ..... He’s referring President Trump for impeachment, and it’s up to Congress to act.

Business groups are considering legal action against the White House over Mexico tariffs The powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce is mulling its legal options in response to the duties...... While top business organizations have repeatedly slammed tariffs Trump levied on trading partners such as Mexico, Canada and China, a lawsuit would mark a major escalation in their opposition to White House trade policy....... The duties could damage key U.S. industries such as auto manufacturing, and crucial 2020 electoral states such as Arizona, Michigan and Texas could feel particularly sharp pain from the tariffs.

GOP lawmakers, business groups slam Trump's Mexico tariff threat
Making Sense of the New American Right
Trump and Bibi’s Bad Week
Trump's approval rating hits highest point in two years
Jeremy Siegel says Trump must cut a trade deal with China to protect the two pillars his re-election case: The strong stock market and economy “The market wants a solution,” says Siegel. “Don’t forget, the market didn’t really want this trade war.” .... Since Trump’s tariff-threat tweet on May 5, the S&P 500 has lost about $1.1 trillion in value. ....... stocks could drop 10% to 20% if the U.S. and China were to dig in during trade talks, he said, “The market is going to continue to react” if Trump wants to push China to be the end....... “You can pull victory out of defeat. No one is really going to look at the details,” the Wharton professor said, stressing that the president has a bully pulpit to cast any agreement with China as a victory even if it’s just so-so.

Beijing experts’ latest message as trade talks stall: The US needs China sentiment contrasts with that of Chinese state-run media, which is emphasizing China’s ability to stand up to the U.S. ...... as long as there is negotiation, then there will be results ..... Beijing would like to keep negotiating with the U.S. It could even be a years-long process that cycles through negotiation and fights ...... China has been removing ownership restrictions in some industries such as financial services and autos. This March, Beijing also rushed to pass a new foreign investment law that officially prohibits forced technology transfer and increases the protection of intellectual property rights. In June, the government is also set to release an expanded list of industries to which foreign businesses can have access. ...... Some have hoped the trade tensions would push Beijing toward important changes to the structure of its economy.



We asked the Democrats running for president how they would negotiate with China on trade. Here’s what they said “Donald Trump has shown he knows nothing about trade,” says Rep. Seth Moulton...... Five Democrats say any trade deal with China should address human rights issues. Among them: Sen. Bernie Sanders, who said he would target American firms that provide surveillance equipment. ...... “China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man,” Biden told a crowd in Iowa earlier this month. ....... Sanders: It is in the interests of the United States to work to strengthen institutions like the WTO and the UN rather than trying to go it alone. American concerns about China’s technology practices are shared in Europe and across the Asia-Pacific. We can place far more pressure on China to change its policies if we work together with the broader international community and the other developed economies. International institutions also offer China a template for reforming its own internal intellectual property and industrial practices. ...... Sanders: Yes. Labor protections are very weak in China, and the rights of workers are an essential component of human rights. The Trump administration has proven itself indifferent to labor rights, and apparently would prefer that American workers are reduced to the position of Chinese workers, rather than that labor everywhere enjoy basic protections and strong standard of living. The Trump administration has also done nothing to pressure China over its abhorrent treatment of the Uighur and Tibetan peoples. Future trade negotiations should, for example, target American corporations that contribute surveillance technologies that enable China’s authoritarian practices............ Sanders: While China has adopted some better practices, it still has a long way to go. The Trump administration is correct to put pressure on China to reform its practices, and I hope that some good comes from current trade negotiations. The economic relationship between the United States and China has been the engine of global growth for the past 25 years, and we should acknowledge that in China it has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. In both China and the United States, however, the benefits of this growth have not been shared equally, and have accrued in a very disproportionate way to the very wealthiest. The problem is that the Trump administration is mainly interested in addressing some of the imbalances between America and China overall, when it also needs to address basic drivers of economic inequality. The future of this relationship requires both a degree of pressure on China, and reform of the economy inside the United States itself. ....... Sanders: The U.S. has a role to play in supporting bilateral and multilateral diplomacy between China and others in the region to deescalate and handle disputes. The best policy in both the near and long term is to strengthen international institutions, in this case the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The United States should press China to abide by internationally agreed guidelines for managing maritime issues, in no small part by ratifying UNCLOS itself. ......





Elon Musk’s SpaceX is now worth more than Tesla Musk is the largest shareholder and CEO of both companies, with a 54% stake in SpaceX and more than 20% ownership of Tesla........ investors shouldn’t rule out the possibility that Musk could use his SpaceX stake to “collateralize” Tesla. “There’s a precedent for Elon Musk to think across his portfolio of companies”

Cramer: The US economy ‘could be on the verge of a significant slowdown’ executives are also weighing the odds of the Democratic Party winning the White House in 2020 ...... “yields don’t protect you anymore ... the stocks keep falling on fears of a worldwide tariff-related slowdown.”

Markets signal to US and China on the trade war: You have ‘blundered into a minefield’

The New York Fed’s gauge of recession probability over the next 12 months is now at 27.5%, the highest since the financial crisis.

..... “It’s like lighting a match. You think you know how to control it. That’s where the uncertainty comes in” ...... Whether it’s increased expectations for interest rate cuts, decreasing expectations for inflation or queasy bond and stock market investors who are more aggressively pricing in slower growth, the message is being sent to the U.S. and China that danger lurks. ..... the ecosystem around the economy and the trade headlines remains fragile.

China won when Trump blindsided Mexico with tariffs, says former Mexican ambassador to China
US manufacturing activity dives to more than 9-year low on trade war worries, survey shows
Grover Norquist urges Trump to get rid of trade tariffs, calling them taxes on US consumers
Major Wall Street banks jeer Trump’s Mexico tariffs: ‘Damaging at a number of levels’
‘Very dangerous’: Putin, Trump want to weaken the European Union, top official says
GOP lawmakers, business groups slam Trump's Mexico tariff threat

Making Sense of the New American Right The conservative intellectual movement has been and continues to be fractious, contentious, combustible, and less of a force than most assume....... The debate over Trump's character and fitness for office opened, or poured salt on, wounds that have not and will not heal. ...... The president did not win a majority, captured a smaller percentage of the popular vote than Mitt Romney, and took the Electoral College thanks to 77,000 votes spread over three states. It is also the case that to date President Trump has been most successful when he has adhered to the traditional Republican program of tax cuts, defense spending, and judicial appointments. ........ The rise of Donald Trump, Brexit, and nation-state populism throughout the world certainly suggest that something has changed in global politics. American conservatism ought to investigate, recognize, and assimilate the empirical reality before it. The trouble is that no one has concluded definitively what that reality is. ....... They believe the nation-state is the core unit of geopolitics and that national sovereignty and independence are more important than global flows of capital, labor, and commodities....... the conservative terrain has become so difficult to navigate that it's useful to have a map. ..... the people who remind us that America is not ruled from above but driven from below. ...... Social decline, he said, is related to the loss of manufacturing jobs. It happened in the inner cities. Now it's happening in the Rust Belt and in rural America. When jobs disappear and low-skilled male wages decline, family formation breaks down. ...... advocated a national industrial strategy ...... the frayed bonds that barely connect working-class Americans to each other ....... they are certain American foreign policy should be restrained, within constitutional bounds, and prioritize diplomacy over military force. ...... Economic freedom has brought about a global system of trade and finance that has outsourced jobs, shifted resources to the metropolitan coasts, and obscured its self-seeking under the veneer of social justice. Personal freedom has ended up in the mainstreaming of pornography, alcohol, drug, and gambling addiction, abortion, single-parent families, and the repression of orthodox religious practice and conscience. ..... the "strong gods" of familial, national, and religious authority. ...... turning away from the secular world and shielding, as best you can, spiritual life. ...... "to use these values [of civility and decency] to enforce our order and our orthodoxy, not pretend that they could ever be neutral." ...... Rather than asking the question, ‘What should conservatives/progressives do?' considerable advances can be made through certain purely practical considerations: ‘How can the integrity of the national political community be assured?' ‘How can commercial activity and technological development continue to be turned toward the common good, and toward our own strategic advantage?' ......... For decades now our politics and culture have been dominated by a particular philosophy of freedom. It is a philosophy of liberation from family and tradition; of escape from God and community; a philosophy of self-creation and unrestricted, unfettered free choice. ........ "celebrates the individual," Hawley went on. But "it leads to hierarchy. Though it preaches merit, it produces elitism. Though it proclaims liberty, it destroys the life that makes liberty possible. Replacing it and repairing the profound harm it has caused is one of the great challenges of our day."

Trump and Bibi’s Bad Week Even on Fox News, Mueller’s statement was greeted as a significant blow to the President, with the network’s chief political anchor, Bret Baier, telling viewers that Mueller had directly rebutted Trump’s claim of “no collusion, no obstruction.” ...... Washington and Jerusalem are facing twin crises, disputes over the reach of executive power in the face of scandal and investigation. .....

politics have become a crude reality show

.... “There are all kinds of things happening that, several years ago, could only be a figment of our imagination.” ..... We are living in a real-time seminar on democracy’s dysfunctions. ....... the context of the rise of authoritarian-minded right-wing populists across the Western world ...... It can all seem overwhelming—too many little crises to keep track of. ...... Whether or not there is anything to be done about it, the collapse of the liberal order is, in fact, happening. ........ the number of democratic countries in the world has fallen every year for the past dozen years. ...... E.U. parliamentary elections confirmed that the right-wing populism that fuelled Brexit and political discontent across the continent remains a potent force; populist parties received the largest share of the vote in four of Europe’s six largest countries. ...... Tumult is the new normal.



Trump’s Crazy Mexico Tariff Is Stoking a Meltdown on Wall Street In writing about Donald Trump, there is a daily temptation to say that this time he’s gone too far. ...... Trump’s move could derail congressional approval of a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. ......

The only real constraints on Trump’s actions are the courts, the opinion polls, and the financial markets.

...... If the new tariffs do go into effect, they will raise the prices for consumers on a wide range of goods, which could produce a popular backlash. ...... eighty-two per cent of self-identified Republicans approve of Trump’s trade policies...... the President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has already indicated that he won’t jump to attention. ..... (On Thursday, López Obrador sent Trump a letter in which he said, “Please, remember that I do not lack valor, that I am not a coward nor timorous but rather act according to principles.”) ...... Trump seems to believe that he can target anybody for his bullying ..... this latest Trump power play is so extreme and potentially self-destructive that, according to the Wall Street Journal, even his own hard-line trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer, opposed it. ....... On Wall Street, there is a lot of nervousness about where things are heading, and whether Tariff Man understands the risks that he is taking. Financial markets don’t usually go south gradually; they collapse suddenly, in a heap. ....... he’s going to have to blink on tariffs, because the market can’t live with this level of crazy.”

Trump's approval rating hits highest point in two years 48 percent approve of the job Trump is doing ..... “Every point of increase in this range of 45 to 50 improves the possibility of re-election.” ...... The president’s job approval rating is at 42.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey found Trump at 48 percent, but six other recent polls found him ranging between 38 percent and 44 percent.

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