Showing posts with label us 2020. Show all posts
Showing posts with label us 2020. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Andrew Yang: Suave Politician?

Andrew Yang: Chicken?





At this stage in the campaign, it makes sense to do what Andrew Yang is doing. At this stage, it is about getting the idea across. Now is not the time to implement. The idea of a Universal Basic Income is utterly new to the US political system. And so, at this stage, the idea has to be peddled as simply as possible. No new taxes. Not too much money per month. Two-thirds of it paid for by existing programs reorganized and made paperless.

The current package can go all the way to November 2020. When the work begins, and details are fleshed out, or, say, if Elizabeth Warren ends up being Yang's running mate (he has said he would like someone with legislative experience), the UBI idea might wed the wealth tax idea during the party convention summer of 2020.

When it is time to implement in January 2021, the work can begin in earnest. It might take a year or two to put it into action. I am for the VAT that Yang is proposing. I am also for the wealth tax that Warren is proposing. A YW ticket?

Sometime before 2035 it is possible that the US economy might see a growth rate of 50% some year. The Freedom Dividend will need to correspondingly go up. It can't stay stuck at 1K a month. It needs to be indexed to something. There needs to be an anchor, so it automatically goes up when conditions change. In short, when the economy gets bigger.



Climate Talk And The Dems
2020: Current Lineup
Andrew Yang And Media Bias
Bernie Picked The Wrong Fight With Andrew Yang




 UBI Is The Minimum Wage Of The Knowledge Economy

Data is the new oil. Proof? Look at the companies with the largest market caps. Used to be Big Oil. Now it is all Big Tech.

UBI: Universal Basic Income.

The minimum wage idea was pretty offensive when it was first talked about? You mean YOU are going to tell me how much I pay my workers!? There is similar antagonism around the UBI concept. It is a sound concept. It just needs to be sold.



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Monday, September 09, 2019

Andrew Yang: Chicken?

Andrew Yang is just too apologetic about it.

Even if there were no robotics, no automation, no lost jobs, the freedom dividend would still make sense. The wealth inequality in this country and the world is plenty of reason to do the Universal Basic Income. That gap is unhealthy for democracy. It is unhealthy for capitalism. It is unhealthy for the market.

Elizabeth Warren is for a wealth tax. In simple terms, up to a wealth of 50 million, you don't pay. That is a high bar. But above that, you pay two cents on the dollar. So if you are Jeff Bezos, and your wealth is 100 billion, you pay two billion. Easy math. If you have to sell some of your shares in Amazon to do that, you sell.

But Warren is not (not yet) for the UBI. Warren: chicken?

Bernie Sanders: Big Chicken? The guy has this Soviet concept of work. Jobbing, is that you want?

Kamala Harris is finally like, 1K is too much. How about $500?

Kamala Harris: chicken.

The world does not stop at the Mexican border. Stop imitating Donald Trump. UBI will only work if it covers all humanity.

If you are going to lose a 50K trucking job, what are you going to do with 1K a month?

Andrew Yang: Chicken.

30-30-30-10: A More Thoughtful And Egalitarian Formula For Equity Distribution In Tech Startups For The Age Of Abundance
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07QG48X51
The Blockchain: Fundamental Like The Internet https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07QNMBXDD
The Blockchain Rumble https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07V6QRM4D
The Character Called The Tech Entrepreneur https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07R1Q3PTZ
Inequality And Climate Change Are Existential: A Blueprint For Survival https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07RKYMC65/
Towards A World Government https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07QYPL4Q6
AOC 2028 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07V2KF2RF    





The Freedom Dividend, Republicans can love. Because this means, no bigger government. The money goes straight to the consumer to spend. And this is money that will be spent. It will be like a nonstop stimulus to the economy.

If you decide to take UBI to all humanity, you immediately come across basic problems. Not everyone has an official ID, not everyone has a bank account, not everyone has something like a social security number, not everyone has access to credit. These problems will have to be solved fast. And it can be. Well, looks like, when you solve these problems, nobody wants to come to America. Happy, Donald? Shitty president.

This also solves the tax haven problem. Now you can't hide your money anywhere. All wealth will pay wealth tax. No matter if you keep your money in London or the Bahamas, you are paying. Parking money will no longer be an option for anyone. That will create pressure on all wealth. The rich will invest. If you are paying a 2% wealth tax, chances are you want to make at least a 5% return. Because five minus two is three. If your wealth is not generating income, it will gradually go down towards zero, as it should. Maybe not tomorrow. But in 50 years?

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Friday, September 06, 2019

Climate Talk And The Dems

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Thursday, July 11, 2019

Nate Silver's Midsummer Night's Dream





I am in broad agreement with Nate Silver here. He is that data guy. Only I venture forth to predict Joe Biden is going to sink like a stone as soon as people start tuning in. I don't see him winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. And then it is downhill from there. Harris will swamp Biden in South Carolina, should he not have already dropped out.

Between Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, I just don't know at this point. If Warren is the nominee, Kamala Harris will be the natural pick for VP. If Harris is the nominee, on the other hand, the reverse is not true. Warren perhaps will go on to become Majority Leader in the Senate. Harris might pick Pete. It will be a good Midwestern Rust Belt balance to the coastal highflies.

Harris is more muscular on gender than Obama ever was on race. I like her stand on pay equity. I like how she asks, which male body part is the government regulating? That little finger on your right?


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Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Warren In The Lead

Right now if I had to bet who the Democratic nominee is going to be, I'd say that would be Elizabeth Warren. She is surging. She owns the wealth tax idea. Kamala and Pete are also doing remarkably well. There can be only one president at a time. But there's also Vice President, there's Secretary Of Urban Affairs. Andrew Yang similarly owns the Universal Basic Income idea. I'd love to see a two women ticket.

As for Trump, right now looks like every Dem can push him out, even Cory Booker, who is not even qualifying for the first debates (I think).

The beauty of so many people running is, if there is a healthy debate on ideas, they will all go on to shape the party platform.

President: Elizabeth Warren
Vice President: Kamala Harris
UN Ambassador: Tulsi Gabbard
Secretary of Urban Affairs: Pete Buttigieg
Secretary of Labor: Andrew Yang





2020: As Yet Unclear
The US Economy Is In Trouble
DC And Puerto Rico Statehood, And Still 50 States
Young And Progressive
Real Donald Jerry Seinfeld Trump?
Andrew Yang: The Only One With A Solution
A Bad Scenario For Trump
The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June
Mueller Drops A Bomb
2020: The Year Of The Social Democrat
Andrew Yang: Universal Basic Income, Elizabeth Warren: Wealth Tax



Trump Set to Live-Tweet Democratic Debates Interacting in real time on Twitter would make Mr. Trump’s presence more tangible by directly inserting himself into the political conversation unfolding on stage. His posts could provide instant responses as well as insights into which attacks he feels most acutely.

DEMOCRATS CAN BOTH IMPEACH TRUMP AND WIN 2020 More Americans than not want to impeach Trump. That figure has only increased since the Mueller report was released and Special Counselor Mueller's subsequent statement. That suggests that the more evidence that comes out against Trump—which would happen during an investigation—the more popular impeachment becomes. ..... a higher proportion of Americans today support impeachment than when Congress began impeachment inquiries into Richard Nixon. That number steadily rose over the course of Nixon's public impeachment inquiry, until Nixon resigned to avoid an impeachment vote. ...... people of color overwhelmingly want to begin impeachment inquiries into Trump. ..... 59 percent of people of color agree with impeaching Trump while just 31 percent of white people do. ...... Democratic lawmakers increasingly rely on people of color to show up at the polls to remain in office, but following an unfortunately familiar pattern, then ignore the views of the very people responsible for voting them into office......... Avoiding a head-on confrontation didn't work for "Little Marco," and it's a bad strategy for Democrats. ..... In the same way that Medicare for All is a bold, principled position that Republicans actually like, supporting the constitution steadfastly is a principled position, though I'm not sure "bold." Just look at this Saturday's event in deep-Red Battle Creek, Michigan—a town represented by the only Republican in Congress on the record for impeachment...... Avoidance and delays aren't neutral; they send a very clear message. And that message is that the president is above the law and that the Democratic party is unprepared or unwilling to challenge that fact.

Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Two Paths for the American Left
Inside Donald Trump's Florida obsession
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Sunday, June 02, 2019

Andrew Yang: The Only One With A Solution



Andrew Yang for President 2020 - YouTube

Andrew Yang is the only one with a solution. That solution is the Universal Basic Income. America is at the cusp of enormous rises in technology-driven productivity. But tech is agnostic. The political process has to rise up to the challenge.

China is trying its best to avoid what is known as the middle-income trap. When Nixon went to meet Mao in China, China was a country of farmers who could barely feed themselves. Today it is a large manufacturing country. It is called the factory of the world. But wages have risen, and China has lost some of its competitive advantages. And so China has to move to the next level or stagnate. The next level is high tech and the service sector.

Instead of America trying to get back its manufacturing base that even China has begun to lose, America has to assess what the next step for the American economy is.

The US made a huge mistake after the internet took off. It did not invest in health and education like it needed to. The US education system is still something that was designed for Henry Ford. A knowledge economy asks for paradigm shifts in education. France seems to have a pretty good system for health care. But not even universal health will solve the problem.

Universal Basic Income has to be the first and most important step. Everything else has to be built on top of that. And Andrew Yang is the only one talking about it.



Andrew Yang Recalls Getting Beat Up For Being The ‘Skinny Asian Kid’ his experiences as one of the lone Asian Americans growing up in his upstate New York town. ..... Yang said that, during his childhood, the prevailing cultural references to Asians were limited to “Long Duk Dong” of “Sixteen Candles” and the line from the movie “Platoon”: “That’s the way the gook laughs.” ...... while the disputes happened sporadically throughout his elementary school and junior high school years, Yang doesn’t recall teachers getting involved much. Bharara, who said he had similar experiences with bullying, also felt little support from teachers and staff. ..... The pair agreed that the experiences shaped how they operate within the world today. ..... “I felt myself to be that marginalized Asian kid throughout my entire life,” Yang said. “Whenever there’s a gathering of people, when I notice someone who’s out of place, I would naturally gravitate towards them.”

2020 Democrat Andrew Yang thinks the key to his success is standing next to Joe Biden at debates Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is making a name for herself in the 2020 campaign by cranking out policies. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), meanwhile, are hoping you know their names already. ..... Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), meanwhile, is more concerned that the person she's standing next to is "maybe going to be really tall"



Inside Andrew Yang's Outsider Campaign There’s nothing like an Andrew Yang campaign event. Nowhere else will fans show up wearing hats with MATH written across the top (“Make America Think Harder”). ...... an outside-the-box style that comes across as refreshing to voters who crave an outsider candidate. ...... Yang is vying to become the first Asian-American nominee of a major party. And while he remains a rounding error in the polls, his modest momentum reflects the enduring hunger for unconventional candidates. If his campaign can catch fire, he’d be further evidence that it’s no longer necessary to spend time serving in elected office or even to be conventionally good at retail politics. What matters, Yang suggests, is to think differently than Washington does. ...... “the opposite of Donald Trump is an Asian man who likes math” ....... Yang, 44, was born in New York to two immigrants from Taiwan. He graduated from high school in Exeter, N.H., in 1992, got an undergraduate degree from Brown and went to law school at Columbia, which he graduated from in 1999. ...... Then he ran a tutoring company that was acquired by test-prep giant Kaplan in 2009 for an undisclosed amount. (On the trail, Yang refers to it as a “modest fortune.”) ........ Along the way, Yang married and had two kids, including an autistic son. ...... Yang’s path led him in early 2017 to the Chelsea neighborhood in Manhattan, where he sat down to lunch with Andy Stern, the former president of Service Employees International Union. He’d read Stern’s book, Raising the Floor, which focuses on universal basic income and closes with the idea of someone running for president on the issue. Yang wanted to try it. ..... If your government teacher ever asked you to invent policy from scratch for a school assignment, the results might look something like his: imaginative, interesting and a little bit out there. ..... The first major moment of Yang’s campaign came after his appearance on comedian Joe Rogan’s podcast, where he first introduced himself to a large audience. After that he started gaining traction on Twitter and Reddit, largely for his universal basic income proposal....... while he can draw crowds in the thousands, Yang’s base is online. .... On Twitter, his follower count is more than 282,000 ....... “I think it’s because young people unfortunately have come of age in an era of institutional failure and erosion,” Yang says, “and so when they sense that someone is speaking in an institutional voice, they kind of tune out.”.... Yang’s theory of the case is that once people get to know him through the debates, they will realize his ceiling is “much higher than most other candidates” and begin to coalesce around him. He often says that people tell him he’s what they hoped for when they voted for Trump.







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Wednesday, May 29, 2019

A Sanders-Warren Ticket



Two Out Of Three: Kamala, Andrew, Pete
2020: The Year Of The Social Democrat
Andrew Yang: Universal Basic Income, Elizabeth Warren: Wealth Tax
Biden's Lead Is Name Recognition




I am looking at these numbers and I am thinking, this is looking like a Sanders-Warren ticket. That would be a good ticket. Only a political earthquake of that magnitude could give America something like Medicare For All. And these two would also be winning candidates. They would not take punches lying down from the big bully.

I think it is important for the impressive Democratic roster to run a clean campaign. Do not engage in personal attacks. Run on the strength of your ideas. All the good ideas have to be hammered into the Democratic platform. Win or lose, Andrew Yang's idea of a Universal Basic Income has to make it through. Win or lose, Kamala Harris' idea of fining companies for paying women less for the same work has to make it through.

President: Bernie Sanders
Vice President: Elizabeth Warren
Secretary Of State: Kamala Harris
Secretary Of Labor: Andrew Yang
Secretary Of Urban Affairs: Pete Buttigieg
UN Ambassador: Tulsi Gabbard
Texas Governor: Beto O'Rourke
Chancellor Of The Obama Library: Joe Biden





DNC makes it more difficult to qualify for 3rd debate Unlike the first and second rounds of debates, when candidates must cross either a donor or polling threshold to qualify, candidates will need to surpass both bars to make the stage for the third and fourth debates. For the September event, candidates will have to hit 2 percent in four qualifying polls, versus 1 percent in three polls for the first debates, and they will need 130,000 individual donors, up from 65,000.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Trump's Prospects In 2020



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Friday, May 24, 2019

Two Out Of Three: Kamala, Andrew, Pete

Right now I am thinking two of these three might end up on the Democratic ticket next year. I don't know who. I don't know in what order. And, of course, I could be proven wrong. I think Andrew Yang is the most underestimated candidate right now for the only candidate with the real solution to the biggest problem at hand: the loss of jobs to automation. I think the winning candidate, whoever that is, will be the great synthesizer. Not the one who came up with the ideas, but the one who best synthesized them all. Who might that be? Kamala Harris' idea to fine companies that pay women less for the same work is on par with Andrew Yang's idea of the Universal Basic Income. I think it is about time. And, of course, the symbolism of an LGBTQ candidate is immense.

Medicare for All. Wealth tax. Wiping out student loans. Universal Basic Income. Fining companies for not paying women equally. These ideas might come from different candidates, but they can all be part of one platform.

President: Kamala Harris
Vice President: Andrew Yang
Secretary Of Urban Affairs: Pete Buttigieg





Buttigieg likens Trump to a 'crazy uncle' The South Bend mayor also accused of him of using a 'fake' injury to avoid Vietnam. ....... South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg on Thursday likened his approach to taking on President Donald Trump to dealing with a “crazy uncle.”..... “Like, he’s there. You’re not going to disrespect his humanity. But he thinks what he thinks. There’s not much you can do about it.” ...... “It’s actually getting harder and harder to find a policy of this administration that most Americans don’t disagree with,” he continued. “Which is exactly, of course, why they need it not to be about policy.” ...... he accused the president of racist behavior ...... said he thinks Trump is a racist...... he does and says racist things and gives cover to other racists ...... the president has also likened Buttigieg to Alfred E. Neuman, the gap-toothed, big-eared character on the cover of the humor magazine Mad.

Trump’s Walkout Hits a Wall Maybe Trump had success bullying real estate moguls and other businessmen and thinks the tactic will work in Washington, even after two years of experience show that it doesn’t. Maybe he flies off the handle and plays the tough guy because he likes it, thinking the White House stage as a version of The Apprentice. Trump has been strategically consistent in using anger to connect with his supporters during his presidency. ....... The sight of Trump baring his teeth like a wild macaque doesn’t seem to faze Pelosi and Schumer. Decades in Congress have inured them to this kind of political gnarling..... Tantrums don’t work very well in government as opposed to business, because there are so many more moving parts—separation of powers, political parties, scores of agencies, 50 states and 245 million eligible voters—than in Manhattan real estate....... Like his Niagara of lies, Trump’s hysterics are just another way of forcing people to live in his factually stunted, theatrical universe. As Pelosi and Schumer have shown, the spell is easily broken.

A week of Trump-fueled dysfunction leaves Congress gasping Pelosi, who earlier in the day said that the president had committed “impeachable offenses” and was in need of “an intervention” by family and friends....... Marc Short, chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, was on TV Thursday morning to demand funding because “we think it is a crisis” at the border. ...... The Appropriations chief then put out a press statement just a few minutes later congratulating Trump for “breaking the gridlock.” Democrats find that sentiment puzzling: They blame Trump for the impasse to begin with

IRS could be forced to release Trump’s taxes in the heat of 2020 The administration is betting that it can drag out the coming case beyond next year’s elections. That could prove a bad strategy.



The 10 Democrats most likely to be the 2020 nominee, ranked

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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Andrew Yang: Universal Basic Income, Elizabeth Warren: Wealth Tax

Andrew Yang is not a one trick pony, although he almost exclusively talks about the Universal Basic Income. His website has the richest policy proposals of any candidate with the possible exception of Elizabeth Warren. Elizabeth Warren's central idea is the idea of the wealth tax. I fully support. These are two ideas that can not lose, no matter if Andrew Yang and Elizabeth Warren win or not.

That is why the presidential campaign is so important. That is why the debates are so important. These two ideas have to be hammered into the political discourse.

Bernie Sanders, similarly, talks about Medicare For All. Many candidates do. But Bernie has been the most vocal. He was talking about it also in 2016. This is also an idea I like. Obviously, three people are not going to win. There will eventually be only one winner.

But all three of these ideas must win.

And there is the Green New Deal. It is not a specific idea right now. It is more of a conversation. It is more the outlines of a paradigm. And the face associated with it is not even running, can't run. But it is the biggest idea of all. And it also must win. All four ideas must win.

The one who will win will win. But the campaign has to be conducted in such a respectful way that all the candidates together build a platform that includes these wonderful ideas.




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Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Biden's Lead Is Name Recognition

Biden announced and quickly shot to the top. I believe his lead is name recognition. It is called being on national television for eight long years. I expect the lead to quickly come down after a few debates. He might still be among the top five for a few months. But Iowa and New Hampshire might winnow him out. In short, I don't expect Biden to become the nominee.

2020 is the year of the Social Democrat. The New Democrat had two and a half decades. That run is over. There is no middle of the road way to tackle climate change. There is no middle of the road method to tackle health care for all.

But the Social Democrat will only offer a losing proposition if he/she does not make it absolutely clear they expect tech entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship, in general, to play a central role in the biggest problems today. In fact, their very positions on health and education have to be sold in market terms. They are investments in human capital. They are about putting human capital front and center.

I have no idea who will be the nominee. It is a good thing there are many good names in the fray. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the two seniors. They have done much to shift the spectrum of political choices. Bernie is good at emphasizing a few key points. Whereas Warren keeps churning out policy paper after policy paper like the professor she is.

Kamala Harris has great symbolism. She is surprisingly skillful. Her cheerfulness masks her pragmatism. She has taken clear positions. So many women are running. This might be the first election when a woman running is not news. I hope this is the new normal.

Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg are the two truly fresh faces. They are the wonks. Andrew Yang is famous for his Universal Basic Income idea, but his website is full of ideas on every possible policy topic. There is a part of me that even wants the two on a ticket.

I see Beto running for Texas Governor and finally flipping that state.

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Monday, May 20, 2019

US China Trade War: A Meeting Of The Hot And Cold Fronts

At some level, it feels like the current US-China trade war was inevitable. It would have happened no matter who had been president. It is as if a hot front and a cold front that were moving towards each other finally met. It has been a tectonic shift perhaps, and not the whim of a whimsical president.

Donald Trump ran for president as a white supremacist. A white supremacist is not attempting to be fair. He is attempting to establish or retain supremacy, or hegemony. The migrant on the Mexican border might not have the power. But China is a similar size economy. White supremacist thinking, meet China!

It is true the US has lost a big chunk of its manufacturing base. But then there was a time when the US also lost a large chunk of its agricultural jobs. Absent sound analysis and a vision for a transition, the blame game fills the vacuum. China did it! Something fundamental is happening. The solution lies along the lines of what Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders are suggesting. You have to give everyone a Universal Basic Income. Because, if anything, automation is about to accelerate. Retraining is not going to do it. You have to make health care universal. You have to invest in human capital. But all this is Spanish to Donald Trump. He started by blaming Mexican immigrants and ended up at China. Well, looks like China is no pushover.

If the US is running trade deficits not only with China but also Germany, maybe one has to point out that Germany is a democracy like the US, it is a market economy like the US. What's going on? The US trade deficit with Germany is wider.

Almost 160 million people from outside visited China last year. And over 120 million Chinese went abroad and chose to come back. That proves China is not North Korea. On the other hand, obviously, China lacks free speech. They say you are free to speak your mind on most things, just don't challenge the political monopoly of the Chinese Communist Party.

Every surveillance opportunity modern technology throws in the air, the Chinese police jumps at it. There is no counterbalancing force to question that tendency.

There are reports that close to a million ethnic Muslims in the west of China might have been detained for "retraining" purposes. These are likely not vocational training camps. At vocational training camps, you are free to move in and out. China goes unchallenged when it does something like that. Challenging China on trade is perhaps an indirect way of challenging China on the ethnic Muslims. At some point it was inevitable it was going to happen.

The South China Sea is a sore spot. That is where China's exports and imports pass through. And so it is understandable China is paranoid about the South China Sea. But that is why you cooperate on freedom of navigation. But China talks like the South China Sea were a Chinese province. Talk about clashing worldviews. This tension could have been contained in the South China Sea for only so long. At some point, it was going to spill over into something like trade. And now we have it.

And it is also just competition. The two leading economies are competing. Instead of killing the World Trade Organization, they could help reimagine it. Trump's white supremacist fantasy to bark at China to scare the smaller trade partners into submission is not healthy for world trade. And he might not even be around in 2021. The word is, winter is coming. The US is expected to see a recession by 2020. Recessions are not known for reelections.

New Twist In The Trade War: China Devalues Its Currency


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