Hong Kong: Endgame Scenarios

Endgame 1: The Protestors Get Tired

One weekend they simply don't show up. Because they got tired. I don't see this happening. If anything, like a hurricane in the Bahamas, this thing seems to only gather further momentum.

Endgame 2: Beijing Sends In The Force

The PLA crosses the border and marches in. I don't see this happening. Beijing is smart enough to realize it will face major international sanctions. The tariffs that only the US has imposed, many major countries will impose. This act should be the least palatable to Beijing. This route chosen leads to a collapse of the communist party inside China because it starts a chain reaction.

Endgame 3: Inaction

Which is what is happening right now. Carrie Lam will not move the needle. Beijing will not move the needle. They basically hope for endgame 1, even though they do not so spell it out.

Endgame 4: The Protestors Get Better Organized, Locally As Well As Globally

Unless they want to also play the tire you out game, the protestors have no choice but to get better organized. Join this or that political party in the millions. Have elected leadership. Hold regular meetings. Pass resolutions after debate and discussion. Organize globally. Although the movement has been local to Hong Kong, it is only a matter of time before some questions will arise. Why are your demands good only for Hong Kong? What about the rest of China? In China, there might be fear. But what about the global Chinese diaspora? Why are you not winning the debate among the global Chinese diaspora? An interesting part of this development will be that the protest leaders will have to face the fact that they don't necessarily want a copycat political system to what America has. The political and economic system in the US is right now undergoing serious internal questioning. But unless the movement is capable of that debate and discussion, it is not a mature movement.

This last option seems to be the only available option.

Hurricane Hong Kong, will you hit Alabama?

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— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) October 15, 2019

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— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) October 15, 2019

Today in the House of Representatives:

4:06 p.m. - Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passed
4:30 p.m. - PROTECT Hong Kong Act passed

Thank you, @SpeakerPelosi for your leadership, and to @RepChrisSmith, @RepMcGovern, @RepEliotEngel and @RepMcCaul for all your support! pic.twitter.com/BG4cI0w71F

— Joshua Wong 黃之鋒 😷 (@joshuawongcf) October 15, 2019

Today the House of Representatives passed the Hong Kong Human Rights Act to make sure the US is committed to fair and democratic practices across the globe.

I was proud to support this bill to ensure people can protest peacefully without fear of retribution.

— Rep. Pramila Jayapal (@RepJayapal) October 15, 2019

Capitalism's Own Propaganda Machine

Look at this.

News: Hong Kong, Vancouver, Diaspora Nationalism

Over a hundred million Chinese travel outside China every year. And, out of their own seeming free will, they travel back. China, obviously, is no North Korea. A lot of them will tell you, they support their government. They will line up arguments in its defense. What is going on? It is conditioning. And it is so total.

There is a similar conditioning in America. It is capitalist conditioning. The corporations that so own the political process, that so own the media, have also similarly conditioned 300 million Americans.

China needs a heavy dose of democracy. China needs to open up. That is the only way it will avoid the middle income trap. The only way China can hope to become a high tech superpower that it aspires to be is if there is free speech in China.

America also needs a fair dose of democracy. Right now it is not a democracy. America is corporate socialism. It is a corporate welfare state. It is a political system designed to work for the biggest corporation and its richest citizens. Not even the top 1% but 1% of that 1%.

The CCP has a political monopoly in China that needs to be broken. Similarly, the stranglehold of the 0.01% in America has to be broken. Then America will become a democracy.

There is need for triangulation. We want post-capitalism. We want post-communism. We want democracy. We want a market economy devoid of monopolies and oligarchies and one party ownerships.

Hong Kong should not try to imitate America. Hong Kong needs to show America the way.

News: Hong Kong, October 1, Protest Slang, Mental Conditioning

The date which has both Hong Kong and Beijing on edge For months, October 1 has loomed over the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong, as a whispered deadline for the ruling Chinese Communist Party to take action to end the unrest......... On that day, Beijing will be hoping to project an image of national strength and unity with a military parade through the city to mark 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China......... It's a significant milestone that China's leaders will not want overshadowed by protests in Hong Kong, which have grown in intensity since mass demonstrations began in June....... 2021 will be the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party. It's also the self-imposed deadline for President Xi to deliver some of his signature achievements, such as eradicating all poverty and raise living standards to new heights. ........ In the last 20 years alone, China's wealth per adult has quadrupled, while its GDP has gone from just $150 billion in 1978 to over $12 trillion in 2018. Just over 30 million people are still living in poverty in China, down from 770 million 40 years ago......

Investors would flee at the first sign of any military boots hitting the streets, something Beijing can't risk as the domestic economy slows.

....... As their options dwindle, Beijing may be forced to grin and bear a Hong Kong spoiler to their national day

As their options dwindle, Beijing may be forced to grin and bear a Hong Kong spoiler to their national day Three commentaries published by state media single out unaffordable housing as a ‘root cause’ behind young people taking to the streets in anti-government protests ......... Cathay Pacific began cracking down on employees taking part in illegal protests and reshuffled its top management after the city’s flagship carrier came under severe criticism for its hands-off approach; and the MTR Corporation started closing metro stations and asking police to take action after the rail operator was accused of allowing protesters to use its network to their advantage. ........

tycoon Li Ka-shing made when he called young people the “masters of our future”.

......... state media specifically endorsed a proposal by the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong, the city’s largest pro-Beijing party, for Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor to invoke the Lands Resumption Ordinance and take back large swathes of rural land lying unused as a quick option to tackle the shortage of land for housing. ....... The Xinhua commentary identified the inability of young people and low-income groups to afford homes and share the city’s economic success as an underlying cause of the social unrest......... A bylined commentary on the People’s Daily website took a tougher line, saying: “For the sake of public interest … it is time developers show their utmost sincerity instead of minding their own business, hoarding land for profit and earning the last penny.” ........ The Communist Party mouthpiece went on to state: “What is being responsible to Hong Kong’s future? What is showing humanity and providing a way out to the young people? This is the way.”......This was a direct counter to tycoon Li Ka-shing’s remarks last weekend, when he described the city’s youth as the “masters of our future” who should be “provided a way out” of the protest crisis.................. City University academic Ray Yep Kin-man said the state media commentary showed Beijing’s understanding of local grievances was based on economic factors......... “But they are not the sole factors, as the calls for universal suffrage, freedom and democracy are clear in the current situation,” he said, adding that Beijing’s input was also blurring the line in terms of “interference” in the city’s affairs.

Exclusive: The Chief Executive 'has to serve two masters' - HK leader Carrie Lam – full transcript

The new battle in Hong Kong isn’t on the streets; it’s in the apps Activists are using Airdrop, livestreams, and innovative maps to keep their protest alive. But the authorities have plenty of tech of their own. ............. Hong Kong is famous for its souk-like electronics malls, and it’s blanketed with high-speed internet. So when protests broke out in June over plans to implement a controversial extradition law—which would see Hong Kongers accused of crimes turned over to mainland China’s notoriously opaque justice system—it was natural that many people turned to online services for more information and guidance............. Everything from supplies of food and water to press conferences are put together in the chat app Telegram ......... LIHKG, a Reddit-like forum that is limited to local ISPs, provides a sandbox of ideas where a network of anonymous citizens can exchange memes, protest schedules, and tactics. Online polls often dictate the location of the next traffic-disrupting flash mob. .......... a small army of journalists and activists have been live-streaming everything from major marches to minor spats with police. The raw videos tap into local media habits—

many people leave live streams playing in the background while they cook dinner or hang out with friends—and help create a sense of solidarity and belonging, even among those who are not on the streets themselves

............ Supply chain: Thanks to messages on Telegram and information sent via AirDrop, protesters are able to get supplies to the front lines through chaotic scenes. ........ “We disregard quality and framing, but we’re in the middle of the protesters and even the police, and people get really immersed in the scene,” she says. “The audience doesn’t want well-packaged shots—they want to feel what it’s like to be on the ground, in the most dangerous situation.” ........

“A lot of people have told me it was like a VR experience of getting beaten.”

.......... (“No one knew where the police were or how they could get to an escape route,” he told me. “So our team began planning to map out the next big rally the following week.”)......... Now Orca and his team publish dozens of maps during large demonstrations, updating positions with colors to show the location of police, “thugs,” and protesters, plus icons to signify first aid, rest, and supply stations. All of this is put together by on-the-ground volunteers who draw the information out on a blank map on their iPads, and send it to an “integrator” who compares the data with news from live streams and television stations before putting it all together and sending it out over Telegram or Apple’s AirDrop file transfer service. During one rally, an estimated 600,000 people downloaded maps put out by Orca’s team, just one of three mapping services created during the protests. ........... Then, three weeks after she watched the train station attack, Alice decided her contributions needed to become more direct. During one of the most violent weekends so far, she joined the crowd, carrying a rucksack filled with supplies: bandages, water, snacks, and filters for gas masks. When she saw a call on Telegram, she rushed forward toward police lines for the first time, opened her bag to those in need, and quickly retreated, checking Orca’s maps to avoid running into police......... She was dressed in what has become the uniform among demonstrators: black from head to toe, her face obscured by a black surgical mask and a black baseball cap.............

"This moment is our last chance to fight for Hong Kong, or the next generation won’t even know what privacy is."

........... “In the past few months people have educated themselves incredibly quickly on end-to-end encryption, only buying single-use transit cards, and the dangers of widespread surveillance” ......... many types of data Hong Kong’s telecommunications companies do not consider to be personal and protected, including a user’s geolocation and IP addresses, as well as the information on websites visited. This interpretation, which was made privately by the companies themselves and has not been challenged in court, means that police do not need a warrant to request, say, a list of subscribers who were in a certain place at a certain time........... Information collected by Hong Kong authorities could also be handed over to China, Tsui added, since there is no formal agreement defining what can and cannot be shared............. Alice does not even know the real names of several friends she’s made at the protests. When they message on Telegram, they use their aliases—all English pseudonyms. Even though they are anonymous, anyone who is arrested is cut out of the group for fear that police could compromise their phones............. With no end in sight, Lam has considered invoking emergency powers, according to local media. One of her first targets would likely be the apps that protesters use to organize. The mere suggestion was so divisive that members of Lam’s cabinet warned her against the move, and the Hong Kong Internet Service Providers Association declared that “any such restrictions, however slight originally, would start the end of the open Internet of Hong Kong.”..........

The Chinese government’s concern is that the internet is also the most likely way the Hong Kong protests could spread to the rest of the country.

........ After Lam’s announcement that she would withdraw the extradition bill, posts on Chinese social media wondered why those elsewhere in China face jail time for even a hint of dissent. ......... amid attempts by the Chinese government to deter protesters by releasing viral clips on Twitter threatening a military crackdown, there is little sign Hong Kongers are cowed. Alice feels that their collective efforts are leveling the playing field between the government and demonstrators. ......... “The government uses an old playbook, but we have created whole new ways of resisting. And if we didn’t stand up and [we] let Hong Kong become just another Chinese city, all that creativity would be snuffed out.”

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Op-Ed: Why so many Chinese students can’t understand the Hong Kong protests It’s hard for Americans to understand why so many Chinese students attending school in Western countries have turned out in recent days to express support for the Chinese government in its current conflict with Hong Kong protesters. The Chinese students have tried to shout down demonstrators at pro-democracy rallies in the United States, Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom....... I don’t agree with the students’ pro-Beijing sentiments on Hong Kong, but I think I understand them. They remind me of myself when I first came to the U.S. to study in 2009........ Soon after arriving, I saw protests in front of the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., organized by Tibetans in exile, but I couldn’t make sense of them. Weren’t Tibetans happy with the high-speed trains and nice buildings the Chinese had built? Weren’t Tibetans making more money doing business with the Chinese? ....... it took me several years to be able to understand on an emotional level the sufferings of many Tibetans in China. ........ My thinking about Tibet had been fully shaped by Chinese propaganda, which held that China had freed Tibetans from serfdom and brought them prosperity and happiness. I had no access to contrary opinions because of government censorship, so I couldn’t fathom that Tibetans were self-immolating to protest the severe suppression of their language, culture and identity........ Studies show that overseas Chinese students — totaling around 1.5 million, including more than 300,000 in the United States —still rely on information from China’s heavily censored internet and media. That helps explain the fervor demonstrated by some of the anti-Hong Kong protesters. But it is deeper than that........ For those us who grew up in a system where information control is all-encompassing, processing ideas contrary to what we were taught and believed all our lives is not easy. It takes an innate curiosity, constant reading of uncensored information and self-reflective thinking — none of which are encouraged in China.......... Unlearning untrue information and the beliefs it engenders can take a lifetime. I left China a decade ago, but today I still occasionally question the truthfulness of certain knowledge I have — because I learned it in school in China........ When Chinese students step outside of China to study, they are struggling to adapt to a new education system, and are frequently confronted — in class, in daily life, and online — with assumptions that they have been “brainwashed by the Chinese government.” It makes some feel attacked and reaffirms what they were taught in China: The West is biased and hostile........

It is only human to want to speak one’s mind, but when years of conditioning teach people that having one’s own thoughts and speaking them can bring serious reprisal, you gradually learn to avoid thinking for yourself at all.

........ When you live under Communist Party rule, not thinking is self-preservation. ........ Even emotions are calibrated by the state. We are taught to be happy about certain events, to be sad or angry about others, but never to pause and ponder why. Shortly after a friend of mine emigrated to Hong Kong from the mainland in early 1997, China’s paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, died. My friend, then a middle school student, went to the Liaison Office, Beijing’s representative in Hong Kong, to pay tribute. As he was leaving the building, a local Hong Kong journalist asked him why he was crying. “At the moment, I was just dumbstruck,” he told me. “‘Why am I crying?’ I asked myself. I didn’t really know.”.............. Universities and educators should double down on respectful, nonjudgmental engagement, mindful that the students may feel compelled to appear to defend the Chinese government.

Chinese authorities have long monitored and conducted surveillance on students from China on campuses around the world

............. For me, learning about the Chinese government’s human rights violations led to the work I do today at Human Rights Watch. In the long run, today’s students living abroad may be best positioned to return home and chart a new direction for China.