Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Showing posts with label trade war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade war. Show all posts
Monday, April 14, 2025
14: Trade War
Thursday, April 10, 2025
The Best Possible Outcome for the US-China Trade War — And How to Get There
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Best Possible Outcome for the US-China Trade War — And How to Get There
๐ A Trade War with Global Consequences
The escalating trade tensions between the United States and China are no longer just a bilateral issue—they’ve become a threat to the global economy. With tariffs soaring, markets trembling, and supply chains rattled, the rest of the world watches nervously. But it doesn't have to end in economic wreckage. A better path is possible—one that benefits both Washington and Beijing, and stabilizes the broader international system.
So what would the best case scenario look like? And what steps must be taken—by both nations—to move from confrontation to cooperation?
✅ The Best-Case Scenario: Mutual Gain through Fair Trade and Strategic Cooperation
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Restoration of Predictable Trade Relations
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The U.S. and China agree to reduce tariffs to pre-2018 levels.
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Both commit to transparent trade practices monitored by neutral third parties like the WTO.
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The Phase One trade deal is either revised or replaced with a long-term trade agreement grounded in measurable, enforceable goals.
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Technological Competition Without Decoupling
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The two powers agree on frameworks for fair competition in technology sectors without forcing a global tech “cold war.”
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Joint forums are created to discuss ethical AI, data governance, and semiconductor supply chains.
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Global Supply Chain Stabilization
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The U.S. and China coordinate on diversifying but not severing supply chains.
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They build resilience against future disruptions without resorting to zero-sum policies.
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A New Economic Dialogue Framework
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A high-level, recurring U.S.-China Economic Cooperation Council is established with rotating working groups on trade, technology, and sustainability.
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Academic, business, and civil society leaders are included to depoliticize and broaden the conversation.
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Global Impact: Economic Recovery and Stability
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With the world's two largest economies cooperating, global markets stabilize.
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Developing countries no longer suffer collateral damage from trade volatility.
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Innovation and investment pick up as uncertainty fades.
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๐ค How the US and China Can Deescalate
What the United States Can Do:
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Tone Down the Rhetoric: Shift from nationalist framing to pragmatic problem-solving.
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Lift Excessive Tariffs: Targeted tariffs may be necessary, but broad-based ones hurt American consumers and businesses.
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Rebuild Multilateral Coalitions: Work with allies to ensure a united, rules-based global trading system.
What China Can Do:
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Open Up Its Markets: Reduce barriers for foreign firms and improve legal protections for intellectual property.
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Curb Industrial Subsidies: Gradually wind down support that creates global distortions in sectors like steel and solar panels.
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Enhance Transparency: Especially in data governance, cybersecurity rules, and business operations of state-owned enterprises.
๐ A Call for Global Leadership
At a time when climate change, pandemics, and geopolitical risks demand unified responses, a prolonged U.S.-China economic war is a distraction the world cannot afford. Both nations must show the maturity to see beyond short-term political wins and recognize their shared responsibility as global stewards.
The best outcome isn't one in which one side "wins"—it's one where both sides rise. Economic peace between the U.S. and China would not only lift both economies, but also signal to the world that cooperation, even between rivals, is still possible.
Conclusion: The U.S.-China trade war has shown us what fracture looks like. It's time to show the world what repair looks like. The stakes couldn’t be higher—and the opportunity, no less profound.
The Trump–Xi Trade Saga: From Tariff Wars to Economic Brinkmanship
Hillary's Self-Goal, Kamala's Self Goal
The Silence Around the Trade War Is What Worries Me Most
Why Can’t the U.S. Build Bullet Trains?
How Does China Do What It Does? Unpacking the Secrets Behind the “World’s Factory”
Trump’s Tariffs and the Coming Great Disruption
The Coming Storm: What Happens Now That Trump Has Slapped Tariffs on the Entire World
The Emperor and the River: Why Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back
Why the U.S. Has Trade Deficits (And Why That Might Be by Design)
WTO Minus One: Trump’s Tariff Chaos and America’s Self-Inflicted Decline
China And Trade
Trumponomics: A 1600s Idea in 21st Century Clothing
Economic Theories That Disagree with Trump's Tariff Policy
$8 Billion Is Insufficient to End World Hunger
The Structure Of Trump's Victory
Only The Kalkiist Economy Can Fully And Fairly Harvest AI
เคฎैं เคเคชिเคฒ เคถเคฐ्เคฎा เคถो เคा เคฌเคนुเคค เคฌเฅा เคซैเคจ เคนुँ
How BYD Is Beating Tesla at Its Own Game
Revolutionizing Email: From Chronological Chaos to Smart AI Agents
The Next Smartphone Will Have IOT Elements
Building Tools Versus Solving Big Problems
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Best Possible Outcome for the US-China Trade War — And How to Get There https://t.co/zUYlo3VOvW
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) April 11, 2025
People bring ideas with them.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) April 11, 2025
The Trump–Xi Trade Saga: From Tariff Wars to Economic Brinkmanship
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
The Trump–Xi Trade Saga: From Tariff Wars to Economic Brinkmanship
Since Donald Trump first assumed the U.S. presidency in 2017, his trade negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping have been a defining feature of global economic relations. Spanning two non-consecutive terms, Trump's approach to China has evolved from aggressive tariff implementations to a complex interplay of economic strategies and geopolitical considerations.
First Term (2017–2021): The Genesis of the Trade War
Upon entering office, President Trump prioritized addressing the U.S. trade deficit with China, accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. This led to a series of escalating tariffs:
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In 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with duties on $110 billion of U.S. products.
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The conflict culminated in the "Phase One" trade deal in January 2020, where China committed to purchasing an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over two years. However, by the end of 2021, China had fulfilled only 58% of its commitments, falling short of the agreement's targets.
Despite these efforts, the U.S. trade deficit with China continued to grow, reaching record highs by 2020.
Second Term (2025–Present): Renewed Confrontation
Re-elected in 2024, President Trump resumed a hardline stance on China, implementing a series of aggressive trade measures:
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Tariff Escalations: In early 2025, the administration imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all Chinese imports, which was subsequently increased to 20%. Additional "reciprocal tariffs" brought the effective rate on some goods to as high as 145%.
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Chinese Retaliation: Beijing responded with tariffs of up to 84% on U.S. goods, suspended certain agricultural imports, and initiated investigations into American companies.
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Economic Impact: These actions led to significant market volatility, with U.S. stock indices experiencing steep declines. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the tariffs as the "worst self-inflicted wound" on a strong economy.
Diplomatic Dynamics and Future Prospects
Despite the escalating tensions, both leaders have expressed openness to dialogue:
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Trump's Position: President Trump has indicated a willingness to negotiate, stating he would "love to make a trade deal with China."
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China's Stance: Chinese officials have affirmed that "the door to talks is open," emphasizing the need for mutual respect and equality in negotiations.
However, underlying issues such as technology transfers, market access, and geopolitical rivalries continue to complicate the path to a comprehensive agreement.
Conclusion
The trade relationship between the U.S. and China under President Trump's leadership has been marked by cycles of confrontation and tentative engagement. As both nations navigate the complexities of economic interdependence and strategic competition, the outcomes of their negotiations will have far-reaching implications for global trade and economic stability.
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Hillary's Self-Goal, Kamala's Self Goal
The Silence Around the Trade War Is What Worries Me Most
Why Can’t the U.S. Build Bullet Trains?
How Does China Do What It Does? Unpacking the Secrets Behind the “World’s Factory”
Trump’s Tariffs and the Coming Great Disruption
The Coming Storm: What Happens Now That Trump Has Slapped Tariffs on the Entire World
The Emperor and the River: Why Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back
Why the U.S. Has Trade Deficits (And Why That Might Be by Design)
WTO Minus One: Trump’s Tariff Chaos and America’s Self-Inflicted Decline
China And Trade
Trumponomics: A 1600s Idea in 21st Century Clothing
Economic Theories That Disagree with Trump's Tariff Policy
$8 Billion Is Insufficient to End World Hunger
The Structure Of Trump's Victory
Only The Kalkiist Economy Can Fully And Fairly Harvest AI
เคฎैं เคเคชिเคฒ เคถเคฐ्เคฎा เคถो เคा เคฌเคนुเคค เคฌเฅा เคซैเคจ เคนुँ
How BYD Is Beating Tesla at Its Own Game
Revolutionizing Email: From Chronological Chaos to Smart AI Agents
The Next Smartphone Will Have IOT Elements
Building Tools Versus Solving Big Problems
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Thursday, April 03, 2025
Friday, March 07, 2025
7: Trade War
The Trade Wars: Tariffs, Globalization, and the Battle for Economic Dominance https://t.co/cg9IxH5SsL pic.twitter.com/VTStsq6GAY
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) March 7, 2025
A high school student asked if he should join a startup or go to university. I said that if he was ambitious he could learn a lot more at a university. The work you do in a startup is severely constrained. If it isn't, the startup is inefficient.
— Paul Graham (@paulg) March 7, 2025
Grok 3 is taking over the world.
— Poonam Soni (@CodeByPoonam) March 7, 2025
But most people still don't know its full potential.
Here're 13 unbelievable things your Grok can do: (๐ Bookmark for later) pic.twitter.com/pUWgzb4wqX
@paramendrakumarbhagat The Trade Wars: Tariffs, Globalization, and the Battle for Economic Dominance https://paramendra.gumroad.com/l/tariff
♬ original sound - Paramendra Kumar Bhagat
Saturday, February 08, 2025
Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Trade War Temporary Truce: Phase 1
As part of the deal, the United States agreed to cancel the 15-percent tariffs that had been scheduled to take effect on December 15 on $160 billion worth of Chinese goods, and to halve an earlier set of tariffs on another $120 billion worth of goods. In exchange, China agreed to increase its purchase of U.S. products by $200 billion in the next two years. ....... To reach the next phase will require each side to determine what fundamental concessions it might be willing to offer the other. ........Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports will remain, as will China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
..... Washington presented several Chinese pledges as concessions to U.S. concerns about Beijing’s trade practices. But these promised measures are either vague or extensions of policies already in place. Indeed, China had initiated most, if not all, of these measures—including steps to reform foreign ownership limits, currency exchange policies, and intellectual property protections—well before the trade war began. ........ As early as 2017, China had begun lifting foreign ownership restrictions—limitations that prevented foreigners from having controlling interests or, in some cases, any interest at all in firms operating in China—in many industries, ranging from financial services to the automotive sector, with the aim of removing all limits in a few years. In financial services, including banking, securities, asset management, and insurance, majority foreign ownership was allowed for the first time in June 2018, and ownership limits (now at 51 percent) are set to be completely removed in 2020. Ironically, the pace of change might have been faster if not for the trade war, which forced China to withhold some reforms. ......... Since 1994, China’s central bank has usually intervened to prop up the yuan, not to weaken it. ....... Regarding intellectual property, China has significantly tightened rules and enforcement in recent years. Beijing set up specialized intellectual property courts in three major cities in 2014 and intermediate-level tribunals in 17 provinces in 2017. In the last four years, China’s Supreme Court has issued guidelines and policies on the judicial protection of intellectual property rights. These have strengthened the courts’ jurisdiction over intellectual property infringement cases and provided a framework for damages. The Supreme Court inaugurated its own permanent intellectual property court on January 1, 2019. ........... China’s total intellectual property payments to foreigners have grown on average 20 percent per year since 2000, far outpacing the median growth rate of 9.5 percent across all countries, according to a study by Shang-jin Wei, a professor at Columbia University. The improved regime of intellectual property protection helps explain why China attracts more foreign direct investment than any other country except the United States.......... The trade war has so far failed to achieve Washington’s stated objectives—namely, to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States and narrow the country’s trade deficit.By September 2019, U.S. manufacturing had sunk to a more than ten-year low, and it has continued to weaken since. The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world has ballooned from $544 billion in 2016 to $691 billion in the 12 months ending in October.
.......... Tariffs on Chinese goods have backfired, in that U.S. consumers have paid almost their entire cost ....... China’s export prices to the United States have not really changed since the trade war began. .......There are, of course, no winners in this trade war, and to think otherwise is delusional.
........ The longer the trade war drags on, the more damage both countries and the world economy will sustain. Already, global supply chains are disrupted. More consequential will be the oft-talked-about “decoupling” of U.S. and Chinese technological systems. Technology companies used to boast that “the world is our market.” No longer. ............the ten largest U.S. semiconductor companies earn a combined revenue in China ($79.3 billion) nearly three times their sales in the United States ($28.1 billion)
. All of these firms are now forecasting significantly lower sales to China........ With Phase II negotiations ahead, a wide gap still separates the two sides on major issues, and the prospect of serious compromise remains distant. ......... Neither side has provided concrete details on what it hopes to achieve in the next round of negotiations. But China’s main objectives are unequivocal. Beijing wants Washington to remove all the tariffs imposed since the trade war began, and it will be prepared to reciprocate in kind. It wants the United States to drop its sanctions on Chinese technology firms such as Huawei, and to relax restrictions on Chinese investments in the United States. ......... The ultimate goal of the next stage of negotiations for both sides should be very clear: to reach an equitable deal that lowers barriers to trade and investment.If both countries follow the same rule-based system, freer trade lowers consumer prices, promotes competition, improves efficiency, stimulates innovation, and ultimately leads to greater economic growth.
In the service of this aim, each country must determine what its real objectives are and prepare to make important concessions. ........... The United States must decide whether what it really wants is access to the Chinese market and better prices for U.S. consumers, or whether it simply wants to contain China’s rise at all costs. Washington cannot have it both ways. The former aim could ultimately lead to a trade deal, but the latter never will. ........For its part, Beijing must finally decide what to do with the most pernicious holdover from its planned economy days: China’s inefficient state-owned sector.
....... China’s own stated goal is to let the market be the decisive force in the allocation of resources in the country. China should continue to restructure, reform, downsize, and privatize the state sector in accordance with this goal, not just because doing so may entice the United States to stop the trade war but because such reforms will be good for China. Whenever China has undertaken market reforms, for example in 1992 and in the early 2000s, its economic growth has surged. Conversely, its growth suffers when the pace of reform slows down. .........If Phase II leads the United States and China to more trade and greater economic cooperation than they had before the trade war, then both countries will have managed to win.
Weijian Shan is one of the world's pioneers in private equity — but during China's Cultural Revolution he was exiled to the Gobi Desert like millions of other youths. Here his story in our latest podcast episode:https://t.co/dombW4X3QT pic.twitter.com/9ifghXqWAD
— Asia Society (@AsiaSociety) February 15, 2019
Weijian Shan, Chairman & CEO of PAG and author of “Out of the Gobi,” shares in Hong Kong his personal journey of perseverance and perspectives on China’s economic transformation. #TalksAtGS pic.twitter.com/OSg1Xtc5UE
— Goldman Sachs (@GoldmanSachs) February 28, 2019
How Weijian Shan turned his youth of Mao-era labor and deprivation into a global finance career https://t.co/JwePYT6LiS pic.twitter.com/28JEpsKbXj
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) April 6, 2019
Weijian Shan Prior to TPG Capital, Mr Shan worked, between 1993 and 1998 at JP Morgan as a Managing Director, concurrently serving as its China Representative, Chief Representative for JP Morgan Beijing Office and Chief Representative for JP Morgan Shanghai Office......... Mr Shan was a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania for six years before joining JP Morgan........ Mr Shan worked as an investment officer at the World Bank in Washington D.C. in 1987.......Mr Shan received a Ph.D. and a Masters of Arts in economics from University of California at Berkeley, an MBA from University of San Francisco.
Weijian Shan, a voice of reason on the #tradewar between #donaldtrump and #china that has been roiling the #worldeconomy https://t.co/icAJJVpdeA #WTO #globaltrade #Tariffs #freetrade #UnitedStates #TrumpImpeachment #TrumpedUpWar #Trump2020Landslide
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 15, 2020
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Is The Trade War Over?
Having a leader who is neither trusted by our erstwhile friends nor feared by our foreign rivals reduces our global influence in ways we’re just starting to see. Trump’s trade war didn’t achieve any of its goals, but it did succeed in making America weak again.
Friday, August 23, 2019
The Insanity Of The US-China Trade War
I love love love this ridiculous saga so much. Everyone, this is a truly hysterical MUST-READ - trust me. @naamanzhou @guardian @condimentwords @HUSO2341_H_N @SENSORY_LAB @salmalatesta https://t.co/kGKwt02LRl via @rezendi
— Cindy Gallop (@cindygallop) August 24, 2019
Is this what the US-China trade war feels like? And now we have a meaningless Trump order. You have to ask, when is Trump going to get a tattoo!
I may have just lost. She’s upped the game. pic.twitter.com/tdZBsgrYKM
— Toast of the WWWeb (@CondimentWords) August 23, 2019
'I hereby order': Trump mocked for highly formal, meaningless decree https://t.co/HeVFzOEmci
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) August 24, 2019
As long as we are claiming constitutional powers we don't have, I hereby order the President to stop tweeting.
— Adam Schiff (@RepAdamSchiff) August 23, 2019
It's so cute he threw in "hereby" as if it means anything.
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) August 23, 2019
"I hereby order the Cubs to win their next 20 games."
I hereby order everyone on Twitter to hereby order something. #Iherebyorder
— George Conway (@gtconway3d) August 23, 2019
I hereby order that the President and the Vice President are impeached for election fraud and @HillaryClinton is sworn in as the rightful president.
— Elizabeth C. McLaughlin (@ECMcLaughlin) August 23, 2019
Whoosh! Bang! Did it work?#iherebyorder
I hereby order a new president or an old one even. Seriously, any one of these will do at this point! #Iherebyorder pic.twitter.com/BeNICV8HQ4
— Smarcastical (@Smarcastically) August 23, 2019
Donald Trump's day so far:
— Palmer Report (@PalmerReport) August 23, 2019
- Tanks stock market with crazy tweet
- Then jokes about it
- Orders U.S. companies to stop dealing with China
- He can't do that
- #Iherebyorder is trending
- Because he's insane
- Impeachment is coming
- Trump is going to prison
- It's still only 5pm
#IHerebyOrder Trump to stop tweeting. #TrumpRecession pic.twitter.com/Go7s3sAd2s
— Nancy Levine ๐ (@nancylevine) August 23, 2019
#iherebyorder the Emperor to put on some damned clothes! pic.twitter.com/nES3Xt6JLx
— PJS (@PJS7734) August 23, 2019
The Dow is down because folks are beginning to realize you have no plan, no sense, and no chance of beating China or anyone without Russia's help.#IHerebyOrder you to remove the Fentanyl drip, grab some paper, a crayon, and RESIGN.
— BrooklynDad_Defiant! (@mmpadellan) August 23, 2019
BTW – Seth Moulton could've stomped you.
I hereby order @realdonaldtrump to stop tweeting and refrain from all public appearances and/or statements for the remainder of his term to give us a fighting chance at staving off recession. #iherebyorder
— Heath Mayo (@HeathMayo) August 23, 2019
#iherebyorder your family to eat your words pic.twitter.com/NhGC9oYkfx
— Terra Mater (@TerraMater7) August 23, 2019
#iherebyorder the VP and eight cabinet secretaries to do their damn jobs and invoke the 25th amendment pic.twitter.com/4rPXEMEqI6
— AssCat (@theasscat) August 23, 2019
Ttump is hereby ordered to immediately start making his products, including MAGA HATS, in America #iherebyorder pic.twitter.com/Fu84CTItFa
— Tex Vet (@TexFarmVet) August 23, 2019
#iherebyorder Impeach “fuckface von clownstick.” (Jon Stewart warned us all.) pic.twitter.com/1L7BFNvkCM
— Nancy Estes (@AmBeachy) August 23, 2019
#iherebyorder the tiny invisible hand of the once free market to go golfing and stop fucking up everything pic.twitter.com/k3wAtoVTkK
— แแผแแK (@chunkled) August 23, 2019
#IHerebyOrder...
— Karen DaltonBeninato (@kbeninato) August 23, 2019
"Sir, this is a Popeye's." https://t.co/Fmxgej9gQe
#iherebyorder everyone to GUESS when #trump tweeted pic.twitter.com/bcA2wJfMOk
— Michele Campisi (@mfloriocampisi) August 23, 2019
#iherebyorder Trump & Pence to resign. You-know-Who becomes POTUS then. pic.twitter.com/2ppA37Okag
— ๐ Renee ๐ (@nay731) August 23, 2019
#IHerebyOrder Congress to fucking do something about this giant toddler.
— ChrisDWitch (@ChrisDWilk) August 23, 2019
#Iherebyorder
— #25thAmendmentNow (@OutofHades) August 23, 2019
to ban #BatShitCrazyDonald
to be deported to No-mans-land pic.twitter.com/4WtyiSjXBC
#Iherebyorder @POTUS, @DonaldJTrumpJr @EricTrump @IvankaTrump and the Trump Organization to immediately STOP doing business with China. Perhaps before ordering everyone else to do it. pic.twitter.com/eAqz7hiPDK
— Kurt Eichenwald (@kurteichenwald) August 23, 2019
Saturday, August 03, 2019
An Intelligent Conversation On Trade
I am not a big fan of Donald Trump. The guy is asinine. But you do deal with the office.
There is a need for an intelligent conversation on trade. Donald Trump is a hammer looking for a nail. He is arguing against sound economic theory. At some level, his moves can be seen as a fascist's fantasy for a Great Depression. Come, Depression, come!
He has beef with China, but he also has beef with India. He has beef with India, but he also has beef with Germany.
The WTO has prevented many wars. Countries that trade seldom go to war. Instead of saying China lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, Donald Trump says China stole hundreds of billions of dollars. Minus China, the US was looking at a Great Depression in 2008. It is good to have some large economies in the world.
Trade talk has to be forward-looking. The pre-WTO world had much strife.
Giving every human being on earth a biometric ID that rests on the Blockchain, and giving everybody access to credit and financial services, in general, is what would be forward-looking. The next generation of trade talks will be about allowing human beings to move from anywhere to anywhere else on earth. That would immediately add trillions of dollars to the global GDP.
Intellectual property laws written in the US Congress can not be imposed upon the world. That truth is no clearer than with medicine. What we need is a world government, a global parliament.
There is a need for an intelligent conversation on trade. Donald Trump is a hammer looking for a nail. He is arguing against sound economic theory. At some level, his moves can be seen as a fascist's fantasy for a Great Depression. Come, Depression, come!
He has beef with China, but he also has beef with India. He has beef with India, but he also has beef with Germany.
The WTO has prevented many wars. Countries that trade seldom go to war. Instead of saying China lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, Donald Trump says China stole hundreds of billions of dollars. Minus China, the US was looking at a Great Depression in 2008. It is good to have some large economies in the world.
Trade talk has to be forward-looking. The pre-WTO world had much strife.
Giving every human being on earth a biometric ID that rests on the Blockchain, and giving everybody access to credit and financial services, in general, is what would be forward-looking. The next generation of trade talks will be about allowing human beings to move from anywhere to anywhere else on earth. That would immediately add trillions of dollars to the global GDP.
Intellectual property laws written in the US Congress can not be imposed upon the world. That truth is no clearer than with medicine. What we need is a world government, a global parliament.
Friday, August 02, 2019
WTO Reform: A New Round Of Trade Talks Are Necessary
Bilateral will do no good. This is like India and Pakistan going bilateral on Kashmir. No progress has been made in 70 years. If the US and China insist on resolving this on their own, there might be no progress.
This is not about saying the US is right about China, or China has a point. This is about the very mechanism of talks, the very framework. The issues come later.
China might not be a western-style democracy. But Germany is. France is. The UK is. Italy is. India is a democracy. You want all of them at the table.
Infographic: Here’s How the Global GDP Is Divvied Up
There is economic theory around trade. Much of it supports trade. But then there is the politics of trade. And that can sometimes decouple from the economic theory. If your goal is to fill up the streets of Hong Kong with protesters, maybe the trade war is a good idea. But that does not seem to be the stated goal. The US trade deficit might be more to do with the US dollar's position in the global economy.
A prolonged trade war might cost Donald Trump the 2020 election. He might lose even without it. The polls show him at 42% and trailing Joe Biden in every battleground state. The dude might get impeached. Maybe there is no firewall for him in the US Senate. Maybe it will be Pence versus Harris in 2020. Who knows?
There is political peril for both sides. The Chinese army out in the streets of Hong Kong will seriously undermine the Chinese Communist Party. This is not 1989. You can not cover it up.
The biggest political peril is that the two powers drag the global economy into a major recession, and that gives rise to all sorts of fascists around the world.
Saturday, June 29, 2019
Big Winner Of China US Trade Truce: Huawei
By my tally, so far #China gets:
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) June 29, 2019
-no new tariffs
-access to US tech for Huawei
-better visa treatments for Chinese students
-truce on #tradewar (resumption of talks)
US gets:
-bigger purchases for farmers
My Tally: US Gets..
— Reality Time (@615_Logic) June 29, 2019
-25% Tariffs remain
-China at table
- no new China Tarffs
- Selling products to Huawei while on notice of US watching
- Ag purchases
- World knows US serious
In REALITY - China got nothing new - just US didn’t impose ADDITIONAL sanctions. All perspective!
Let's wait for Trump to board Air Force 1 and start tweeting, that's when we'll know his real plans.
— Sam Sraan (@SamSraan) June 29, 2019
#NorthKorea’s response: “We see it as a very interesting suggestion, but we have not received an official proposal," state KCNA cites 1st Vice Foreign Minister. “It would serve as another meaningful occasion in further deepening the personal relations between the two leaders.” https://t.co/jkhPrQml3V
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) June 29, 2019
“Deteriorating ties between the two countries are influencing everything.. where products at your local Walmart are made; where jobs will be created or lost.. That means we could be at a history-altering moment.” @TheAtlantic #G20 https://t.co/5E7dDe45sJ
— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) June 28, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 29, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 29, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 29, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 29, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 29, 2019
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 29, 2019
เค เคฎेเคฐिเคा เคฐ เคीเคจ เคต्เคฏाเคชाเคฐ เคตाเคฐ्เคคा เคเคฐ्เคจ 'เคธเคนเคฎเคค' https://t.co/Q3apIQBok9
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) June 29, 2019
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