The Hong Kong Shenzen Political Song And Dance Could Benefit The World

Beijing should accept the five demands of the Hong Kong protests. It has no choice. That is what one country, two systems means. At the same time Beijing should get on with its political experiment in Shenzen. The idea is that it is possible to create an "orderly political participation" of ordinary people in the political process without ditching one party rule.

What does that mean? Does that mean voting? Whatever it means, it is unfolding.

These two cities could be like a live experiment for the whole world to watch.

I don't think America has a political system that every other country needs to copy. And if copy, why not start with England? Let's abolish the monarchy. The Brits have a quickie one month long election. Let's spread that over an entire year. Let's elect a president in England. Let's write a proper constitution.

You see where I am going?

I believe every country will tread a unique political path. And I can't think of a better place than the Hong Kong Bay Area for a live political experiment on as to what might be the best possible political system.

The whole world is watching.

Stuck in traffic for four hours, trying to get to CU. All cars in routes around me trying to do the same thing, to provide support to the students.

This is Hong Kong, my friends. :)#StandWithHongKong pic.twitter.com/U6KBraaEJy

— Denise Ho (HOCC) (@hoccgoomusic) November 12, 2019

China Has Already Started Political Reforms: In Shenzen

The Hong Kong Bay Area is known globally as the Silicon Valley of hardware. You show up there with 20,000 dollars and a basic whiff of an idea, and in no time you will have a prototype. You can choose to mass produce after that right there. Whether or not you can push the finished product into the market would be up to you. That is quite a bargain. That is innovation at bullet-train speed.

We have all been talking about how China is thick in the brain, how it simply does not get it. Ends up maybe not. They have started their political reforms the exact same way they started their economic reforms. Deng Xiaoping picked one place across the waters from Hong Kong. And once economic reforms were shown to work there they were then taken all over China.

Looks like Xi has picked that same spot for his political reforms.

China’s Shenzhen is using big data to become a smart ‘socialist model city’ Beijing tells southern technology centre to use ‘best modern governance practices that promote high quality and sustainable development’ ......... China will be the ‘world’s first modern powerhouse not built on the road of capitalism’, head of national economic planning agency says ....... Shenzhen is experimenting with a “party and technology” development model as it aims to become a “socialist model city”...... The city, which is known for its technology industry, was told by Beijing in August to find “the best modern governance practices that promote high quality and sustainable development so it can be held up as an example of civilised society of law and order where people enjoy a high degree of satisfaction”. ........

Shenzhen faced “unprecedented new tasks” which bore great significance for the rest of the country.

.......... The problems encountered in the modernisation of our country are likely to appear in Shenzhen first ...... it was Shenzhen’s pioneering role that had made such a pilot experiment important........ “Being a socialist pilot demonstration zone, the governance models that have proven successful in Shenzhen will be replicated in other Chinese cities” ....... the city began its big data and smart city plan in 2013....... As well as data sets covering populations and the economy, the official said Shenzhen had also built “thematic databases” that could empower officials who handled social disputes and public grievances......... As part of the city’s plan, Shenzhen also launched its “Weaving Net Project” in 2013 under which it divided the city into thousands of data zones and designated an “information collector” to each zone. ........ The system also uses 2 million surveillance cameras dotted about the city. ....... “About 80 per cent of criminal cases are solved with the help of video surveillance.

Almost all criminal cases can be solved in 24 or 48 hours with the help of these technologies”

....... the city had taken a much bolder data strategy than Hong Kong in using big data to enhance governance........ “The biggest difference between Hong Kong and Shenzhen is the mindset,” he said. “We are constantly looking for more efficient and advanced ways to run and govern the city, while Hong Kong believes in its ‘small government, non-interventionist’ approach.”......... Shenzhen could benefit from smart governance as it had a large population but only a small number of civil servants.......... the government’s data platforms had accumulated more than 22.1 billion pieces of data about

20 million people, 3.6 million companies and 14 million properties........ there were only about 40,000 civil servants in Shenzhen, of which about 25,000 were police officers

..... in 2013, Shenzhen was able to carry out predictive analysis of the public demand for education and health care services........ “The process of simplifying government approvals was a trigger for the government to carry out the restructuring reform

I think the Chinese have this attitude that, well, everyone in China is free to join the party. And once they join the party it is a meritocratic process. You can rise up the ranks based on your ability and work ethic. So it is a very democratic process. They also take great pride in having bureaucracies that actually work. They try to teach African countries the best practices from their own bureaucracies.

To that I say, that is all fine and dandy. Why not go one step further? Let the party offer two candidates for president every five years. And let ordinary Chinese pick one through a secret ballot. Let there be a universal franchise. Maybe that is where this Shenzen experiment will end up.

Shenzhen, Beijing lose out to Chengdu as China’s best performing city economy, says report Chengdu has for the third time scooped top spot among Chinese cities for economic performance........ As the provincial capital of Sichuan province, Chengdu – along with Chongqing – is one of the twin growth engines in China’s western region, having cemented its place as a manufacturing hub specialising in defence-related production....... “The city’s geographic location inside the Diamond Economic Zone makes it an important gateway for the southwest region. Investments in a 10,000km Chengdu-Europe Express Rail will help improve China’s logistical connection with the western world supporting the [Belt and Road] Initiative,” the report said........ Shenzhen, home to China’s version of Silicon Valley where technology giants Huawei and Tencent are based, dropped from first to second place............. President Xi Jinping’s endorsement of Shenzhen as a “key pilot zone for socialism” will allow the city to carry out bolder reforms and may mean it snaps up some of crisis-hit Hong Kong’s financial services.

Shenzhen turning its back on Hong Kong property model in favor of affordable public housing

Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam

I am trying to understand what might be going on.

Xi Jinping is the only one who can decide. But he is acting above the fray. And the way the system is designed, people who report to him are trying their best to make him look like the tough guy he is supposed to be.

That works if all you have to do is wait. In a few weeks, the whole thing will fizzle out.

Well, it has been more than a few months, and the whole thing is only gathering more momentum.

The political system in China is not designed to respond to what has been happening in Hong Kong. What has been happening is under the full glare of global media, old and social. The whole thing is being webcast live. The Chinese communists don't know how to respond.

Hong Kong is a bigger threat than Donald Trump and the trade war. It is like Beijing is having to fight two wars at once, neither of which is military. A military war would be relatively easy. This is a phantom war.

The system is inflexible. Formally withdraw the extradition bill and the whole thing might go away. But they can't even do that. The system is that inflexible. It will break, but it will not bend. The folks in Beijing are naive in thinking the breaking point is far. Objects in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear.

How might this whole thing play out?

One fine morning the protesters wake up and realize they don't want to do this anymore. This is what Beijing is counting on. This is the least likely scenario.

The other extreme is Beijing sends in troops. This would be the stupidest move on their part. That will end communist rule inside China, guaranteed. The CCP will not celebrate a new year.

The moderate scenario is where Beijing starts by accepting the key demand. Or it even accepts all five demands and claims it a victory for one country, two systems. But this makes too much sense. If they were to do this, they would have done it already. The political system in China runs like a rhinoceros. It does not know zigzag.

I feel like Beijing might have already entered a no-win phase in this situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Although I can't be too sure. And I have not been reading enough on the details.

We will know when the dam starts to break. It might be in the form of one arrest too many, one beating too many by the Hong Kong police. Or support protests in the other cities of the world. Or the protesters managing a complete shutdown of everything in Hong Kong, the airport, the stock exchange, everything.

While Beijing moves towards October 1 like an ostrich.

Chinese President Xi Jinping urges the ruling Communist Party to brace for a “long term” struggle against a variety of threats, including a more confrontational U.S. https://t.co/Ulw4gHcEGF

— Bloomberg (@business) September 3, 2019

Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam https://t.co/xvbNUbtMwK @realDonaldTrump @StephenBannon @NateSilver538 @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer @JenMetzgerNY @LiuNewYork @marcorubio @AndrewYang @narendramodi @ImranKhanPTI @BorisJohnson @EmmanuelMacron @Queen_Europe

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 3, 2019

Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle

Looks like China has its own Bay Area.

The Bay Area in California is not big enough for all the innovation that needs to happen.

If you make Shenzen like Hong Kong, that only adds to Hong Kong.

And, of course, the big backdrop is the South China Sea, the most geopolitically seismic zone on the planet. Peace and harmony here will make space for the ocean cities of tomorrow.

The Hong Kong protests have not gone to a higher level and become a political movement. It will be more productive as a political movement.

The recent move by Beijing on Shenzen is smart and positive. They intend to make Shenzen more like Hong Kong. The gesture, I hope, is or is made credible.

I don't understand the intransigence on the part of the Hong Kong leadership. Why not meet the top demand immediately? Why not formally pull out the extradition bill?

That a massacre is not likely is good news. On the other hand, the protests can not go on forever. Three months is a long time.

I happen to think this Hong Kong Greater Bay Area is more like the US Northeast than the Bay Area in California. Short route hyperloops could closely integrate the region into one megacity.

I don't see evidence this Shenzen move is abrupt. It has been a long time coming. I also don't see it as a move to spite Hong Kong. It is actually a mature move. It is a signal to Hong Kong that Hong Kong will not become more like Shenzen, rather Shenzen will become more like Hong Kong.

I am pleased with this move by Beijing. It is non-violent, it is respectful, it is mature. It is also politically sound from Beijing's perspective.

What has been happening in Hong Kong are at the level of a protest movement, not a political movement. An official end to the now shelved extradition bill will go a long way to soothe nerves.

My primary concern is that there should be no violence. From either side.

China’s Grand Plans for Shenzhen The new plan for Shenzhen also shines a light on China’s long-term strategy toward Hong Kong. ........ China’s State Council and the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued a new guideline earlier this week outlining an ambitious plan for the future of Shenzhen, a major city in southeast China’s Guangzhou province that links Hong Kong to the mainland. ....... a Greater Bay Area that would integrate the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions with nine other municipalities in the surrounding region in Guangdong province (Dongguan, Foshan, Guangzhou, Huizhou, Jiangmen, Shenzhen, Zhaoqing, Zhongshan, and Zhuhai), which account for approximately 12 percent of China’s national GDP and a combined population of 70 million people. ...... “breaking new ground” on economic growth, reforms, and innovation and take the practice of “one country, two systems” a step further ...... Shenzhen has a population of more than 12 million people and was the site of the mainland’s first special economic zone. ...... Chinese technology giants like Huawei and Tencent and telecommunications company ZTE house their headquarters in Shenzhen. The city is also the third largest and busiest container port in the world, while it ranked 14th in the 2019 Global Financial Centers Index (Hong Kong took the third spot, by comparison)....... Shenzhen’s economy surpassed Hong Kong’s for the first time in 2018, reaching HK$2.87 trillion compared to Hong Kong’s HK$2.85 trillion in the same year. The starker difference remains the disparity in the growth rates of the two Pearl River Delta metropolises, with Shenzhen’s GDP notching a 7.6 percent growth rate, while Hong Kong’s economy rose by just 3 percent.

CHINA’S ALLEGED PLANS TO MAKE SHENZHEN BETTER THAN HK NOT QUITE WHAT THEY SEEM The Chinese government has set up additional goals for making its pride city of Shenzhen a world-leading metropolis within the next five years. ...... China’s warning to Hong Kong, amid the ongoing protests in the city. The outlets suggest that the timing of the plan’s release is a signal from China that the central government is willing to siphon benefits away from Hong Kong and toward other municipalities within the Greater Bay Area, should the HKSAR continue to step out of line....... The goal of making Shenzhen a “pilot area for socialism with Chinese characteristics” was first proposed in May 2017 by the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC). In 2018, the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the CPC outlined a plan for making Shenzhen a “pilot area” from 2018 to 2035. The document was submitted to the central government for approval. ....... By 2025, the government wants Shenzhen to become one of the world’s leading cities in terms of economic strength and quality of development. Its research and development output, industrial innovation capacity, quality of public services and ecological environment are expected to become first-class in the world ....... “High quality development; pilot area of the city of rule of law; model of urban civilization; role model of livelihood and happiness; [and] pioneer of sustainable development” are the six general goals listed in the document...... the plan is proposing to “continuously improve the level of openness of Shenzhen to Macau and Hong Kong, support Shenzhen in building a big data center in the Greater Bay Area, vigorously promote the humanistic spirit in Greater Bay, encourage Shenzhen to co-organize various forms of cultural and artistic activities with Hong Kong and Macau, constantly enhance the sense of identity and cohesiveness of Hong Kong and Macau compatriots, strengthen the cooperation of digital creative industries in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, and use Hong Kong and Macau’s exhibition sources and exhibition industry advantages to organize large-scale cultural exhibitions.”

China's State Council calls for Shenzhen integration with Hong Kong, Macau Hong Kong, one of the world’s busiest ports, is on the verge of its first recession in a decade as violent anti-government protests scare off tourists and bite into retail sales and investment....... The directive called for the “modernization of social governance” in Shenzhen via the “comprehensive application of big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other technologies.” ...... to further develop the Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and “enrich the new practice of the ‘one country, two systems’ policy.” ...... Hong Kong returned from British to Chinese rule in 1997 under a “one country, two systems” formula that promised wide-ranging freedoms denied to citizens in mainland China, but many in the city believe Beijing has been eroding those freedoms.

China plans to make Shenzhen a 'better place' than Hong Kong China's government has unveiled plans to boost the mainland city of Shenzhen and make it into what state media called a "better place" than neighbouring Hong Kong, following another huge rally in the semi-autonomous financial hub...... Weeks of rallies, demonstrations, and occupations have plunged Hong Kong into crisis - which Beijing is now framing as an opportunity for Shenzhen's development...... By 2035, the southern Chinese city will "lead the world" in overall economic competitiveness, the document said...... Published on Sunday, the timing of the policy document coincided with the 11th week of demonstrations in Hong Kong - the biggest challenge to China's rule of the semi-autonomous city since its 1997 handover from Britain...... The former British colony of Hong Kong operates under a "one country, two systems" framework, which gives citizens rights unseen on the mainland, such as freedom of speech...... The policy document said that individuals who are from Hong Kong and Macau but work and live in Shenzhen would be treated as residents....... The guidelines also support creating a "more open and convenient" entry and exit system at its borders, and allowing foreign permanent residents to launch science and technology enterprises - potentially trying to encroach on Hong Kong's territory as an easy place for international businesses to be based. ...... The city is already a key part of Beijing's "Greater Bay Area" policy, which plans greater integration between Hong Kong, Macau and mainland Guangdong province, where Shenzhen sits........ Beijing is keen to pull the three regions even closer - "enriching" the practice of one country, two systems and "continuously enhancing the sense of identity and cohesiveness of Hong Kong and Macao compatriots" via cross-border cultural activities....... the guideline demands Shenzhen "comprehensively improve its democracy and rule of law and expand people's participation in politics in an orderly manner under leadership of the Communist Party of China".