I'd prefer McCain, because McCain would be so easy to beat. A piece of cake, like I have said before. Rudy Giuliani would be a tougher opponent. But because of his stance on social issues, he will help the Republican Party grow up. Republicans were the segregationists back in the days. Today no mainstream Republican is. A Rudy candidacy will help move the ball along.
He has this aura about him from 9/11. And he was a pretty good Mayor before that. But he overplayed his cards, and ended up looking insensitive to minority sentiments. His plus would be that he has held an executive position, kind of like being that mythical southern state Governor. His minus would be that he still does not get it on the Iraq War: he keeps defending all of Bush' decisions. But his approach is much more nuanched than that of McCain, so he will make it harder also on Iraq. McCain's attitude is belligerent. I am that famous Vet, don't you know me, send in more troops. Giuliani, on the other hand, makes some good criticisms of how the war was implemented. The nation building part has been poor, he says. But he does not realize the primary challenge is political, not military. The question is is Iraq worth a trillion dollars? What will be Rudy's answer?
Obama is going to have to become more than an anti-war candidate. Pulling out troops has to be accompanied by hard political work, and he does say that, but he will have to emphasize more. The military vacuum will have to be filled with major political work. The Obama goal still is a stable, democratic Iraq.
And Obama will also have to compete with Rudy's Mayor image. You do that by exhibiting superior organization as you run the campaign. Obama is already doing that. His My.BarackObama.com is light years ahead of that of all the other campaigns. It has all the Web 2.0 details. Other campaigns are still Web 1.0 largely. For example, Hillary thinks a blog is writing on paper taken online. Not so. A blog is a blog is a blog. It is not just an existence in the space dimension. The real dimension in play is the time dimension.
So, yeah, Rudy will be beaten, but he will be tougher to beat than McCain, but his candidacy will help the Republican Party grow up on the social issues. And, by the way, I dig Rudy's accent.
And I like talk of moving by the big state primaries. Illinois said it will do it for Obama. New York has countered saying it will do it for Hillary. California, and Florida should do it. Big, diverse states have to matter early. Tiny, all white states have too much power right now.
Bottomline, Iraq will cost Rudy the White House.
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