One of the journalists I quoted in my blog post yesterday that I also emailed has emailed me back saying the photo I posted was that of the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, not the president.
I am not counting WeWork and Uber out yet. They still might come back. But Elon Musk is hellbent on eating Uber's lunch. And it is hard to bet against Elon Musk.
What I note is both Uber and WeWork have had culture problems. When your company's valuation goes into dizzying heights, it is easy to congratulate yourself. It is easy to take all the credit. It is easy to say you did it all by yourself. It is easy to get giddy. It is easy to lose your fulcrum. It is easy for the corporate culture to deteriorate. When the corporate culture is poisoned, it is only a matter of time before a company goes belly up.
What do I think of Masa Son? I think he is a genius. He ranks with Steve Jobs. What Steve Jobs was to technology, Masa Son has been to finance. But I would not give Imran Khan a cricket bat today. He is better off running a country. Maybe Masa is past his prime. Maybe Masa became lazy. His specialty was spotting Alibaba before anyone else. He went big on Yahoo before anyone else. But in recent years he went into WeWork and Uber after everyone else had spotted them. He went into WeWork and Uber for all the wrong reasons. He went into them because they were grabbing headlines.
The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia put a lot of money into Masa Son's kitty. Masa talked him into it. I say to MBS, congratulations, you have failed spectacularly. And I don't mean that in a sarcastic way. The number one quality of the Silicon Valley culture is that failure is celebrated. If you have a bunch of failed tech startups in your past as a tech entrepreneur, venture capitalists find that highly attractive.
Where technology is going to go in the next 25 years is going to be 100 times more spectacular than whatever has happened in the past 25. So it is not that MBS' timing was not right. And it is not that he bet on the wrong person. Masa is rightfully a legend.
If I were MBS, I would plot to put something like 100B into some company (or companies) that firmly rest on the Blockchain and target the poorest two billion on the planet. That 100B would become 1T or even 2T in a 10-year timeframe.
Maybe I can help!
Saudi Arabia needs to make a few bold moves like this one if it is not to see a decline in 10 years. Clean energy is good news for everybody. It does not make sense for there to be no planet. If there is no habitable planet left, it does not really mean much that a country is rich. Rich loses meaning in that scenario. But a country like Saudi Arabia must diversify. That is the mantra.
I am a very political person. I can't think of Saudi Arabia (or any country, for that matter) and not think politics. And let me say at the very outset, as an avid student of American politics for decades now, it is my strong opinion that the American political system is severely lacking, and requires fundamental change. Not only that, I see enormous resistance to any suggestions for change. And not only from people who might in the short term not benefit too much from the change. The very people who might benefit drag their feet.
I don't think the American political system is the ideal that every country needs to move towards. Even if the idea is a western-style liberal democracy, look at the many countries of Europe. Each so-called western democracy seems to carve out its own unique path. And so it can be said every country on earth is destined to carve out a unique political path.
If the United States will move up to its next level of economic development, it must transform its politics. If China is to avoid the middle-income trap, it must transform its politics. If Saudi Arabia is to diversify and not see decline in 10 years, it must transform its politics.
My recommendation to every monarchy in the Gulf is to create a path to a constitutional monarchy. Again, the pace will be unique to every country. And the monarch need not be as laid back as Queen Elizabeth. It is possible to create a constitutional monarchy where the monarch stays a fairly active figure. As to the unique path for each country, and the shape of that particular constitutional monarchy, there can be debate and discussion.
A more participatory political system is likely to exert that requisite pressure that will force the Gulf economies to diversify and maintain their vibrancy even during the fast-approaching clean energy era. There is a major economic incentive for political reform.
And this is the least disruptive way to transform. Arab Springs, by definition, are phenomenon that blindside you. They come out of seemingly nowhere. So it makes sense to be proactive about it.
MBS is right to say there is only a political solution. And I point my finger towards Yemen. The humanitarian crisis in that country is atrocious. There is no military solution in Yemen. There is only a political solution.
There is no military solution with Iran. There is only a political solution.
Masa Son (who by all accounts is a genius) talked MBS into putting I don't know if it is 50 or 100 billion dollars into his Vision Fund. Masa put a big chunk of that into Uber and WeWork. Looks like both are bombing. Masa is not a monarch. He has a stellar record as an investor. But the thing is, if Imran Khan had started smoking at the peak of his cricket career, how long do you think he might have been a great player?
This MBS-Masa story is one to learn from.
Saudi Arabia is a wealthy country that became wealthy very rapidly when oil was discovered. And Saudi leaders have been talking about diversifying the economy for decades now. But that has not come to be. Now Saudi Arabia is under immense time pressure. Not delivering on diversification is no longer an option. It has at most a decade to do so. The rightful clean energy push in the world and the exponential progress being made by clean energy technology is good news for humanity, and it need not be bad news for Saudi Arabia.
I think if MBS were to draw a roadmap to becoming a constitutional monarch in something like five years, that would be the most powerful decision taken by any Saudi king. Become a constitutional monarch, and create a bicameral legislature.
It gets said about MBS he is a millennial who has already come to power. Pete Buttigieg in the US is older than MBS (I think) and Pete is considered almost too young.
It is not a question of individual IQ or individual ability. It is about the political structure that might best deliver. And Saudi Arabia has a 10-year window to diversify or face decline.
The best exercise of power is restraint. I am critical of some of MBS' misadventures in Yemen. He must become cognizant of the human suffering there. What Yemen needs is a political process.
Digital technology can enhance a ruler's powers. But it is not about having more power. It is about exercising power right. It is about being just and fair. I was watching a video yesterday about some elements of the Saudi regime misusing Twitter to clamp down on even basic expressions. I did not feel good about it.
Some of what MBS has said about technology and the economy does sound visionary. But unless the political process is right, you do run the danger of ending up with white elephants. When you surround yourself with yes men, you could walk naked and no one will bother to tell you because they are too afraid.
Recently I have been listening to some of what Imran Khan has been saying about the early days of Islam, the state that Prophet Muhammad created.
MBS does accept Israel's right to exist. That apparently is a major milestone. And women being able to drive in Saudi Arabia has been a long time coming. But the best political move MBS could make is choose to become a constitutional monarch. I don't see any hint of that. But that is my thought.
Situation: War is not an option. An all-out attack by the US on Iran and an all-out counter-attack is unthinkable. For one, there would be a global Depression. It would be like the global economy had a heart attack. A seizure. Even when you are not talking, you are essentially "talking," you are signaling.
Interesting: The Saudis, the Iranians and the Americans all are on excellent terms with both Imran Khan and Narendra Modi. Both Modi and Imran should come together and help out Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the US.
Solution: Go back to the Obama nuclear deal and while you are at it, negotiate on all other outstanding matters. Give full engagement to Iran as a conclusion step. Maximum trade, maximum tourism.
Rationale: If you want democracy in Iran, you want to engage to the maximum. Trade also prevents war. If the Chinese and American supply chains were not such a spaghetti, we would already have seen a US-China hot war by now.
Taliban-US
Situation: The Taliban and the Afghan government refuse to talk to each other, but both are willing to talk to Imran Khan.
Interesting: Both the Afghan government and the Taliban are eager to talk to Imran Khan. The Indian government is on good terms with the Afghan government.
Solution: Integrate the Afghan Army and the Taliban to create one unified army, like happened with the Maoists of Nepal and the Nepal Army in the mid 2000s.
Bottomline: The Taliban must agree to become a political party and contest elections in Afghanistan.
India-Pakistan
Situation: Indian Kashmir is under curfew for more than 50 days running now.
Interesting: Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the US are all on excellent terms with both Imran Khan and Narendra Modi.
Solution: Let Pakistan and India recognize the Line Of Control as the final border between the two countries and compete with each other to install democracy and human rights in both Kashmirs. This formula of recognizing the LOC as the final border is also the solution to the India-China border dispute. They have the longest disputed border in the world.
Bottomline: The curfew in Kashmir must be lifted immediately.
