Negotiating With Terrorists

English: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 1996 - Peres, Arafat & Schwab (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. Arafat said that. What is ISIS? Is it religious fervor? Is it a state? Is it mafia? Is it a terrorist organization? Is it organized crime? Is it Islamic revival? Different people can have different opinions.

ISIS took responsibility for Brussels, as for Paris before that. Both times it has claimed it was merely getting even for what is being done to it in its own territory. That back and forth only ends up in a much bigger war.

There is a saying in democracies. Never negotiate with terrorists. Those whose only ways are the ways of violence are not seeking political solutions. And so don't negotiate.

I think it is possible to negotiate, but only if ISIS were to agree to a wholesale ceasefire. If ISIS were to cease all plots of global violence, if ISIS were to cease all acts of violence in its own territory (some have reported small scale genocide), if ISIS were to cease all acts of sex crimes, if ISIS were to accept mediation over the same, if ISIS were to allow international observers who would oversee that the ceasefire indeed is being respected, then negotiations are possible. Remember, no political issues have been discussed yet. This would be a ceasefire whose only basic requirement is that all violence and all sex crimes to an end. If ISIS could do this much, it might even be possible to carve out a new country for the territory that ISIS holds.

That country's boundaries would be a political decision taken collectively by all parties. The current line of control could end up the final boundary. As to governance in that territory, there would be need for a constitution. Elections can be held to a constituent assembly. The only rule would be the constitution may not clash with the Human Rights Charter, and to that end there would be international judicial oversight. Other than that there would be no rules. Maybe ISIS will become a political party. Its armed members will get pulled into the country's police and army. Maybe ISIS will emerge the largest and the ruling party.

Pan Arabia is an option. If all Arab countries attempt a political and economic union, then why not? But that would be a non-violent, political act. If Europe is any example, the process is not easy, and it is supposed to take time.

Islam is a valid religion. It is as valid as Christianity. But any message against peace, justice and kindness are invalid in all religions.

ISIS in its current form comes across as a mindless, fascist, blasphemous, criminal organization. There are lawful uses of force. Currently ISIS can legitimately be at its receiving end. But a ceasefire could change that. Is there a mediator that ISIS would accept?

पाकिस्तान को ४० बिलियन का ऐड (2)

पाकिस्तान को ४० बिलियन का ऐड

तो सामान जब आती है तो वो रात के समय गुप चुप ट्रांसपोर्ट किया जाता है। सीधे गोदाम तक। कमसे कम लोगों को मालुम होता है। कहीं भारत उपर से स्पाई satellite न घुमा दे। ये नेशनल सिक्योरिटी का मामला है।

सोंचने वाली बात है, हथियार आया फॉरेन ऐड तो पाकिस्तान टु फाइट द वॉर ऑन टेरर तो फिर भारत से छुपाने का मतलब? तालेबान के पास को शायद satellite नहीं। भारत युद्ध करना जानता है, लेकिन टेरर --- वो उतना सोफिस्टिकेटेड कहाँ!

सामान गोदाम में जाने के बाद फिर एक जेनेरेशन उसको गोदाम से बाहर निकलना नहीं। काहे तो वो काम का सामान होता ही नहीं। किधर प्रयोग करिएगा? मैन्युअल पढ्ने वाले भी तो चाहिए। आतंकवादी चला रहा है AK-47 तो आप चलाइएगा क्या? आतंकवादी करता है urban warfare जहाँ हथियार कम इंटेलिजेंस ज्यादा काम की होती है।

बल्कि एक जनरेशन बाद उसी गोदाम में खिड़की दरबज्जा लगा दो तो वो हो गया म्यूजियम। देखो बच्चो, जब हम सुपरपावर हुवा करते थे तो कभी हम अमेरिका को सप्लाई करते थे तो कभी अमेरिका भी हमें सप्लाई करता था। तो एक बार अमेरिका ने जो सप्लाई किया वो ये है।

मान लो आप ने इस तरह गोदाम में बंद नहीं किया। चीन से एक कोई भ्रमण पर आया है उसने देख लिया। रूचि लेने लगा।

"मिया, ये क्या? कब ख़रीदे?"

"यही कोई छ महिने पहले ख़रीदे। वो क्या है कि सिक्योरिटी थोड़ा टेंशन दे रहा था। सो।"

"कैश ख़रीदे?"

"बिल्कुल। कुछ अपने भी थे कुछ ऐड में भी उसी वक्त पैसा आया हुवा था। तो सोंचे सिक्योरिटी तो सबसे जरुरी है। सो खरीद लिए। पैसे गनने में पसीना छुट गया था। सूटकेस का सूटकेस देना पड़ा था। गिनने वक्त मैं खुद बैठा था।"

"अच्छा?"

"बिलकुल।"

"वो जो है, वो कितने का है?"

"वो वाला? वो वही कोई बिलियन डॉलर का है वो। वर्ल्ड क्लास है। सीरिया बगैरह किसी के पास नहीं। भारत में भी रिपब्लिक डे में अभी तक नहीं दिखा। "

तो चिनिया भाइ नजदिक जा के देखते हैं।

"ये अच्छा है लेकिन ये तो हम आपको १०० मिलियन में उपलब्ध करा सकते थे। कभी कभार हमें भी याद कर लिया करो।"

बस मिया भाइ टाय टाय फिस। कि क्युँ बोला पैसा मैंने गिना। इम्प्रेस होने के बजाय ये क्या बोल गया?

तो मुँहमाँगी प्राइस लिए हुवे रहते हैं सप्लायर। गोदाम में ढक के रखने का प्रमुख कारण वो होता है।

पाकिस्तान को ४० बिलियन का ऐड

Flag of Pakistan Esperanto: Flago de Pakistano Español: Bandera de Pakistán Français : Drapeau du Pakistan हिन्दी: पाकिस्तान का ध्वज Italiano: Bandiera del Pakistan ଓଡ଼ିଆ: ପାକିସ୍ତାନୀ ଝଣ୍ଡା Русский: Флаг Пакистана தமிழ்: பாக்கித்தான் கொடி Türkçe: Pakistan bayrağı Slovenščina: Državna zastava Pakistana (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

लोगों ने इंटरनेट पर पढ़ा कि अमरिका ने पाकिस्तान को ४० बिलियन ऐड में दिया है। और जमीन पर कुछ दिख नहीं रहा है। एक मियाँ भाइ दुसरे को देख रहे हैं शक के दृष्टि से। ये उस को देखता है, वो उसको देखता है। कि मियाँ, वो जो अमरिका से पैसा आया, वो कहीं आपने तो हजम नहीं किया? कोइ ऑफिस में नया सुट पहन के आ जाता है तो शक शुरू। नया सुट पहना है बंदा, कहीं वो ४० बिलियन यही तो हजम नहीं कर बैठा!

तो होता क्या है कि वो पैसा कभी अमेरिका से पाकिस्तान तक पहुँचता ही नहीं। अमरिका सरकार के खाते में से कुछ डिफेंस कंपनिया बगैरह के खाते में पैसा जाता है। पाकिस्तान पहुँचता है महंगा महंगा हथियार। ये बिजनेस है। और वो हतियार इस्लामाबाद में चाँदनी चौक पर डिस्प्ले कर दिया जाता कमसेकम तो लोग देखते कि यही है, अमरिका ने जो ४० बिलियन दिया। आम आदमी तो दुर आम सिपाही को भी कभी दिखाया नहीं जाता। अधिकांश तो गोदाम से कभी निकलते नहीं। कभी प्रयोग ही नहीं हो पाता।

बिजनेस में एक कांसेप्ट है ROI, यानि कि Return On Investment. तो १० मिलियन कांग्रेसमैन सीनेटर लोगों को खिलाओ तो वो लोग बिल पास करेंगे, बिल का नाम रहेगा फॉरेन ऐड टु पाकिस्तान टू फाइट द वॉर ओन टेरर। बिल पास होगा। खर्चा हुवा १० मिलियन, प्रॉफिट हुवा १० बिलियन। उतना प्रॉफिट मार्जिन तो सॉफ्टवेयर में भी नहीं है। अच्छा बिजनेस है। और यहाँ एक मिया भाइ दुसरे मिया भाइ को देख रहा है, कि मिया वो जो मैंने इंटरनेट पर पढ़ा अमरीका ने जो दिया वो कहीं आप तो हजम नहीं कर गए?

Don't get me wrong. मैं ये नहीं कह रहा कि पाकिस्तान में करप्शन नहीं है। अगर करप्शन ना होता तो गरीबी ही ना होता। जहाँ जहाँ गरीबी है मान जाओ वहाँ करप्शन है। करप्शन खतम गरीबी खतम।

Trumping The Intelligent Conversation On Terrorism

Security is important. Safety is important. It is the number one thing we expect government to provide. We want to be safe from crime and terrorism.

That is why Obama killed Bin Laden. The same government machinery, the same CIA, the same Navy Seal, the same Zero Dark Thirty movie crew, but W could not do it. It took a Barack Obama. I guess you have to be sharp.

I think Hillary is also sharp. She did give Obama a tough time in 2008, did she not? It was neck and neck for months until finally Obama squeaked in.

Indira Gandhi commanded the military like no Indian prime minister before or after. That thing is gender neutral. A strong leader is a strong leader. Gender is not a factor. Leadership is.

Terrorism is for real. 9/11 is still fresh in people's memories. Many major cities have been struck since. London, Mumbai, more recently Paris. It is a valid concern that they might be able to pull it off again in some place like L.A. or Chicago or Seattle. That can not be allowed to happen.

Ever since 9/11 I have maintained this War On Terror is the same magnitude as the Cold War. World War II was about taking democracy across from Britain over to Western Europe. The Cold War was about extending that to Eastern Europe. The only way this War On Terror ends is if every Arab country becomes a democracy. That is the big picture. How do you get there?

This is not about tracking down five, or 10, or 20 thousand bad people and physically eliminating them. That view is myopic. Although there is an obvious military element to the fight. But I am no military expert. I will leave that to the experts. The best in the game plot it out every waking hour. They are at it. They are doing everything humanly possible. Be it in terms of intelligence gathering, or surgical strikes, most of which we don't even hear about. They are doing it. And I am glad. And these are professionals. They don't really care if the person in the Oval Office is a Republican or a Democrat. They answer to the American people through their elected government. They are on the people's payroll, and they know it. More than salary, they are driver by a mission, and a sense of love for country and liberty. Country is territory but liberty is a universal value, and they know it. Where liberty does not exist, people aspire for it. That is true everywhere. I don't know if we are in good hands, but I do know we are in the best hands.

The law of political entropy says a country tends towards democracy granted there is a sufficient flow of information. So the thing to do, the top thing to do is to beam the internet from the sky and smuggle millions of cheap, solar powered Android phones into the target territories. You want to swamp ISIS with cat videos. It really is like that.

But if you are trying to spread democracy in Muslim countries, you have to show that democracy works for Muslims in countries that are already democracies, countries like America, and India, and Germany. Because if democracy does not work for Muslims, why will a Muslim country bother going democratic? Why not keep up whatever they have? Why bother? Because all strong, successful democracy movements are homegrown. There has to be a groundswell. Ordinary people have to actively want it.

Which means demonizing Muslims is the exact opposite of what needs to happen. Have you ever heard Barack Obama talk bad about Muslims? And it is nothing to do with the fact that some people think he himself is Muslim.

There is a sick person on the table. Donald Trump's prescription is let's inject poison. I am sure that will take care of the sick person. But I am not sure that is the kind of taking care we are looking for.

The Donald's prescription of demonizing Muslims is the exact opposite of what needs to happen. The Donald's way leads to situations where more Muslims inside democracies get radicalized, and there are more attacks like Paris, and if there are enough of those, next thing you know is we have another Vietnam on our hands.

Vietnam was an open-ended ground operation. Vietnam was a disaster. Vietnam is a blight on the history of this country. However that war started, it became inhuman very fast. America engaged in chemical warfare in Vietnam like Saddam could not imagine.

One of Barack Obama's legacies is going to be that he did everything in his power to prevent another Vietnam. I guess the guy is pretty powerful and pretty effective. We have not seen another Vietnam. It is said if JFK had not been assassinated, we would not have seen Vietnam. Stupid people entered the Oval Office and let it slide, people like Donald Trump.

Welcoming Syrian refugees into Germany is one of the smartest things Germany can do to fight the War On Terror. From the safety of Germany the Syrian diaspora can plot an eventual victory for democracy in Syria. And they can work their own jobs while they are at it. Germany gets to collect taxes in the process.

Every Muslim country that needs to end up a democracy has diaspora populations in America. These are assets. To Donald that is news. It is news he does not want to hear.

Democracy has to be seen working for Muslims. Capitalism has to be seen working for Muslims. And America is as good a country as any to make that happen.

Donald, you are a fool. You are a circus clown.

The San Diego Shooting: Defining Terrorism

I have yet to read a full news item on this San Diego shooting, so forgive if I am missing out on details, but this incident has been hard to ignore in the headlines.

This Pakistani woman's neighbors back in Pakistan are in disbelief. It is unimaginable she did that, they say. So obviously her radicalization did not happen in Pakistan. Ordinary Pakistanis are overwhelmingly lower middle class, God fearing and peace loving. It is pretty humdrum. Pakistan is a larger population than Russia.

So if her radicalization did not happen in Pakistan, where did it happen? Obviously it happened in San Diego. Where in San Diego? It is possible she saw Donald Trump on TV.

And I grew up around Muslims. It was a total non-issue when Muslims dropped by my house. They were biologically identical in terms of skin color and looks, spoke the exact same language, shared the same culture. They were just a different religion. But then so are Buddhists.

And you have to understand, what Shahrukh Khan, Aamir Khan and Salman Khan mean to Indians across the world -- and Indians are across the world, Indians live in every town in America -- there is no parallel in Hollywood and America. So when you badmouth Muslims across the board, don't get surprised if Indians across the religious spectrum get offended. I will. I am offended that you might be talking about Aamir. I am deeply, personally offended.

Maybe this woman saw Donald Trump on TV. And I don't mean that in a Jimmy Fallon way, I mean that in a Charlie Rose way.

It has always struck me as to the clarity of thought in the Muslim worldview. When you wrong a Muslim there is no foggy thinking that maybe I belong to the wrong caste and that's why. They are more like, I am a child of God, how dare you! I am fond of that.

So if her radicalization happened in San Diego, or on TV, who supplied her with the gun? Not ISIS. ISIS is not that sophisticated.

I have news, people. America does not need ISIS. It has the NRA.

Terrorism has to be precisely defined. When you kill one person, that is murder. When your motivation is that you don't like their kind, that is a hate crime. And hate crime IS different from murder. If one Sikh person got killed and it was a hate crime, then all Sikhs in that community should take note. Because there is a killer at large who are after people like them.

But when you kill a bunch of people, and you are driven by some kind of ideology, then that is an act of terrorism. Terrorism simply is hate crime magnified. It is possible you have never been recruited by any person or organization. It is possible your indoctrination happened over the Internet. It is possible your gun was provided to you by the NRA. But the act is an act of terrorism.

White guys are primarily guilty in this country. There is no ISIS. Not yet. That white guy killing black church goers is a terrorist. He was not sick, he was driven by ideology.

A serial killer is a serial killer, as opposed to a murderer.

Then there are some people who are mentally sick. They are not terrorists in that they are not driven by ideology. They are just not okay upstairs, it is clinical, and they got hold of a gun, and they went some place and started shooting. For me the most important question there is, how did they get hold of that gun? That is the top question. There's also the issue of universal health insurance. Where could they have gone for help?

NRA.

This is a barbaric nation with a homegrown epidemic of acts of terrorism. It does not need the ISIS. It has the NRA.

This country needs a constitutional amendment. You got done killing Indians (Native Americans), now amend it. By the way, that was also terrorism. On a massive scale. Colonialism is the El Nino of terrorism.

Objectively speaking, head count by head count, the US is no less barbaric than the territory ISIS controls. Look at all those gun deaths. The numbers are of epidemic proportions.

The only plausible explanation.

Posted by Manjushree Thapa on Tuesday, December 8, 2015

The Paris Attack Builds Political Pressure For A Direct Attack On ISIS

There was no way America could not have attacked Afghanistan after 9/11. An attack like 9/11 builds so much pressure. The Paris attacks are not 9/11 size, but they are still big, and such a frontal assault on the French capital city.

I believe Arabs have genuine grievances, foremost among them being that most of them are ruled by dictators. But ISIS is dictatorship and primitiveness all in one. The ISIS is no solution to Arab grievances.

This was not just an attack on Paris. These attacks have been targeted at the gathering that will be the Paris climate talks.

World leaders will now find it hard not to build a coalition to go after ISIS. A direct, sustained aerial assault on ISIS territory perhaps is now imminent.

The Al Qaeda has never had its own country. Afghanistan under Taliban rule was a host country. It was a parasite situation. Al Qaeda was mobile. ISIS has a territory it directly rules. It generates massive revenue. It is not a country though. It is not seeking a seat at the UN. It is a deformity passing for a state.

ISIS is atrocious to the population it rules. And that should have been reason enough to go after it. Previously I have called ISIS Rwanda in the making. If they can't keep expanding, they will turn upon themselves, like a cult.

Driving ISIS out of its territory would liberate people.

I don't believe in violence, but ISIS is so evil, there seems to be no other choice. Society permits lawful police action against evil members. Humanity has an obligation to use force against ISIS and take war to its territory.

Boots on the ground is always a tricky proposition. But aerial assaults can be decisive, and might pave the way for boots on the ground. To clean up, and to set up a proper, democratic, modern state.

Use of force is sometimes necessary, and the only way to combat evil.

If Assad has to go, Assad has to go. It could be a package deal. Syria deserves democracy as much as anyone else.

But the military assault can not be open ended. It has to be precise and time bound. You don't "liberate" and then clean up ground just for chaos. There has to be a clear plan involving local populations. Syria left to fester gives you ISIS. ISIS left to fester gives you Paris.

The Ongoing Paris Attacks

This is like what happened in Mumbai years ago. Gunmen willing to die show up with automatic weapons, show up at crowded places in a major city, and open fire, wanting to kill anyone in sight, indiscriminately. This is not suicide bombing. The fatalities are much higher.

We are nowhere close to winning the War On Terror. It is an evolving situation. If the War On Terror is like the Cold War, like I have been maintaining since 2001 that it is, we are only in decade two of the War.

This is horrific. The asymmetry gives them the upper hand. It is not hard to smuggle in trained gunmen, or to obtain the weapons.

The scary part is, this could happen anywhere. This is the second time Paris has been attacked. Something similar happened in Australia. They blow up one cafe, and that act scares an entire nation.

There are two ends to the stick. One is, how do you make sure the wrong men don't end up in the wrong places? And that is tough. It is a big world. How do you make sure they don't show up with weapons? That is also tough. Another end of the stick is, once an incident gets reported, how swift is your counter reaction?

Intelligence work is crucial. How deeply have these groups been penetrated? That is also hard. Because they seek a constant feed of new recruits.

It is a tough, sad situation. The innocents getting slain -- your heart goes out to them.

I can imagine all big cities going on high alert after this. The thing is I feel love for big cities. I live in one.

This attack was designed with the intent to grab global media coverage. The impending climate talks in Paris will make sure that happens. The climate talks can not now be taken to a different city. And with 80 heads of state gathering, there will be major media coverage.

Paris attacks: eyewitness accounts
Paris attacks: Dozens dead and hostages held at Bataclan



French president declares state of emergency
Dozens of people dead in attacks across Paris
Several dozen killed in violence around Paris, hostage-taking in theatre

a series of unprecedented attacks around Paris ..... The series of attacks gripped the city in fear and recalled the horrors of the Charlie Hebdo carnage just 10 months ago. ...... One of at least two restaurants targeted Friday, Le Carillon, is in the same general neighbourhood as the Charlie Hebdo offices, as is the Bataclan, among the best-known venues in eastern Paris, near the trendy Oberkampf area known for a vibrant nightlife. The California-based band Eagles of Death Metal was scheduled to play there Friday night. ...... The Charlie Hebdo attackers claimed links to extremists in Yemen, while the kosher market attacker claimed ties to the Islamic State group. ..... France's military is bombing Islamic State targets in Syria and Iraq and fighting extremists in Africa, and extremist groups have frequently threatened France in the past...... French authorities are particularly concerned about the threat from hundreds of French Islamic radicals who have travelled to Syria and returned home with skills to stage violence.

What Is Happening in Paris?

President Francois Hollande has declared a state of emergency across France and closed the country’s borders after a series of attacks across seven sites in central Paris killed dozens of people Friday evening. ..... ABC News adds that 60 hostages are believed to be held in what is being described as “an ongoing situation.” The Guardian is reporting that a witness on live radio in France claims “he heard the assailants [at the Bataclan] were screaming ‘Allahu Akbar’ while shooting inside the crowd.” If true, this would be the first indication that the attacks were perpetrated by Muslim terrorists. .....

If it’s shown that the attacks are coordinated, it would be the worst violence in Paris since World War II.

So far, there have no reports that any attackers have been apprehended.

NYPD Steps Up Security Citywide After Shootings, Explosions In Paris Kill Dozens

diners fell to the floor when gunshots were directed at the restaurant’s window. She told France 24 that a woman lying next to her had a fatal injury. ..... One of the explosions was reported at a bar at the stadium where the match was going on...... CBS News reported French President François Hollande was in the stadium at the time. He was rushed away and taken to a secure area...... “These are obviously very highly planned attacks, acting in concert at the same time, and it appears to me that they were successful,” said terrorism expert Manny Gomez. ...... Hollande said in an address to the country that the military was being deployed around Paris after the unprecedented attacks. Hollande also announced that the French borders have been closed. ...... Delta airlines said it was monitoring the situation and calling it very fluid. ..... An NYPD official said the department stepped up security at all high-profile locations in New York City as a precaution. The official said there were no specific threats in New York, and the decision to beef up security was precautionary. ......

At the time of the attacks, Paris was already on high alert in preparation for a global climate meeting in a couple of weeks, which 80 world leaders — including President Obama — were planning to attend.

...... The attack comes as France has heightened security measures ahead of a major global climate conference that starts in two weeks, out of fear of violent protests and potential terrorist attacks. ..... Emilioi Macchio, from Ravenna, Italy, was at the Carillon bar near the restaurant that was targeted, having a beer on the sidewalk when the shooting started. He said he didn’t see any gunmen or victims, but hid behind a corner then ran away....... “It sounded like fireworks,” he said. ..... Retired Army Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer said the U.S. and the international community must be vigilant, since the Friday attacks happened so soon after the Paris attacks...... “We do know already that whoever’s behind this, the scope of it is a mess… the question then becomes,

what more is coming?”

he said. ..... The country has seen several smaller-scale attacks or attempts since the Charlie Hebdo massacre, including an incident on a high-speed train in August in which American travelers thwarted a heavily armed Islamic radical trying to attack passengers.

ISIS Holds Territory

Khobar Towers bombing in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on 25 June 1996. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Al Qaeda never did. It was like a parasite. The host was Taliban.

The ISIS is not a state, the way you and I think about states. For example, it has no desire to join the United Nations. It is a terrorist organization, pure and simple. The virus has mutated.

ISIS Territory Is The New Rwanda

ISIS commanding territory, and generating huge daily revenues from oil and drug trafficking and what have you has got to be on the radar.

It was only a matter of time. These attacks were going to come.

When the fight between capitalism and communism started, it did not end with communism losing. Capitalism itself morphed. It digested some elements of communism. There were things like the welfare state.

Islam seeks respect. We want to move towards a world where Muslims are not living in the slums of democracies. They are in the mainstream. But that has to be brought about by the forces of democracy.

ISIS is a physical attacks problem. I am no military expert.

ISIS can not be allowed to hold territory. ISIS can not be allowed revenues. Right now it is collecting millions per day.

ISIS is going to force the US to think maybe Arab monarchies are anachronisms.

The US is not exactly winning the War On Terror right now. This is a new virus. And it is deadlier than the Al Qaeda. Bin Laden's death was but a blip. Now it looks like.

The bottom line is this is an ideological struggle. An ideological struggle with clear physical components. But primarily an ideological struggle. This is a war of words first and foremost.

These guys will not stop at anything. If they can build a dirty bomb, they w-i-l-l detonate it. That is how clear they are in their intentions. If they can't bring that dirty bomb to America, they will detonate it in Africa, or in some Arab country. That event will make 9/11 look like a picnic.

The Cold War lasted almost half a century. The War On Terror was never going to be over in 10 years.

I still think beaming the internet from the skies and flooding the Muslim world with cheap Android phones is the number one and best tool. Elon Musk has a pan. Fund it. It is the cheapest and the least bloody.

Also, there is no avoiding the fact that the only way to tackle Climate Change is by creating a genuine 21st century world government. Climate Change and terrorism are twin challenges. They are similar. They only have global solutions.

ISIS claims deadly mosque attack in Kuwait Terrorist Attacks in France, Tunisia and Kuwait Kill Dozens

“The Kuwait operation is especially dangerous, as this is ISIS’ first operation in a gulf state,” Mr. Riedel said in an email. “The others will be deeply alarmed.” ..... “Muslims, embark and hasten toward jihad,” said the Islamic State’s spokesman, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, in an audio message released this week. “O mujahedeen everywhere, rush and go to make Ramadan a month of disasters for the infidels.” ...... United States intelligence and counterterrorism officials were scrambling on Friday to assess the connections, if any, between the attacks in France, Kuwait and Tunisia. Officials said that if the assessment found that the attacks were linked, officials would seek to determine whether the Islamic State had actively directed, coordinated or inspired them...... the assault resembled others launched by ISIS recently on Shiite mosques in neighboring Saudi Arabia ..... “This is something that was planned,” she said. “It was not just one guy who decided to put on a suicide belt and go in there.”

Attacks hit three continents amid fears of escalating Islamist violence

Emergency security meetings were called across Europe, and French police were dispatched to protect “sensitive sites” ..... Tunisian authorities reeled with another blow to its vital tourism industry, three months after 22 people were gunned down at the world-famous Bardo museum in the capital, Tunis. In Kuwait, the prime minister, Sheik Jaber al-Sabah, denounced the blast at a Shiite mosque as a direct attack at “national unity.” ..... France’s interior minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, also said a suspect arrested — identified by French media as Yassin Sahli — was on a watch list between 2006 and 2008 of potential followers of a radical branch of Islam, but had been taken off surveillance. ...... In a communique circulated by Islamic State-linked social media accounts online, the group said one of its members, Abu Suleiman al-Mowahid, detonated a belt of explosives at a “gathering of apostates.” ...... The Kuwait attacks followed similar mosque blasts in neighboring Saudi Arabia targeting Shiite worshipers. The Saudi attacks also were claimed by the Islamic State, whose extremist Sunni followers view Shiites as heretics.

Islamic State said to kill scores in Syrian border city

Islamic State jihadists engaged in a bloody rampage in the Kurdish-majority Syrian city of Kobani and its environs on Friday, officials said, executing at least 142 civilians before withdrawing as vicious fighting continued in the town for a second day........ described the attack as "a crime against humanity ... it's a barbaric massacre" ....... "The executions were perpetrated against entire families, [they were] completely exterminated," he said, adding that the death total would make this the second largest massacre perpetrated by the group. At least 28 Islamic State militants were killed in the clashes.

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Terrorism

Terrorists Among Us: Jihad in America (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

ढाका में मोदी ने कहा, हमें traditional युद्ध करना आता है, सैनिक भेजो, टैंक भेजो, फाइटर प्लेन भेजो, लेकिन दुनिया को terrorism से कैसे सामना किया जाता है वो नहीं आता। True, it is a new strain of virus.

कुछ solutions हैं।

• State building ---- जिस तरह मच्छर पानी न बहने वाली तालाब ढूँढती, उसी तरह आतंकवादी ऐसे देश ढूँढ़ते हैं जहाँ failed state हो। 
• Cooperation between States ---- दुनिया के देशों को information sharing करनी होगी। Otherwise if each country is a silo of its own, you give the terrorists a lot of room to play. 
• Information Technology ------ The leaders like Bin Laden might choose to go "dark." But generally speaking terrorist cells rely a lot on electronic communication. There has been much contention on this. Even in countries like America there has been a lot of talk about how civil liberties are being curtailed and citizens are being spied upon. Perhaps there is a happy medium somewhere where you rely mostly on machine reading until you have something substantial and only then you get humans involved. Like with Gmail, the email service serves you ads. But it is machine reading, and you don't feel violated. 
• Social network mapping ------ All terrorist groups rely on social networks. Smaller and tighter the group, more reliant they are on their social networks. So when you nab a few, they lead you to others. 
• Political grievances have to be proactively addressed. Not because terrorism is and should work. But if there are legitimate concerns, they are legitimate. And they should be addressed. Not as a matter of negotiation with the terrorists or as a step in being blackmailed, but independent of all that. 
• The "frontline" is where you have small, agile, well trained operatives who engage in direct action. Mistakes have been made in drone attacks, but they are also one of the tools on the frontlines. 
• Ideological fights on social media. 
• Larger debates in society, at universities, in old media, on TV, in newspapers. Point by point rebuttals. 

Terrorists rely on the war of asymmetry because they know that is the only way they have any chance. आमने सामने आएंगे तो asymmetry गायब हो जाएगी। 

That is why you have to fear the ISIS more, because they are breaking many of the rules of the traditional terrorists. Terrorists prefer not to hold territory. 

Terrorists rely a lot on out of the box thinking. That goes along the lines of asymmetry. So you have to keep on your toes and constantly be trying to figure out what their next moves might be. It is a game of chess. 

Ultimately you just have to drown them out with plentiful information. Wireless broadband and cheap Android phones for the masses ----- I think that is the number one thing. Hundreds of millions of Muslims sharing cat videos makes ISIS irrelevant. You drown out the terrorists with everyday boring stuff. I happen to think that is the most potent weapon. 

I have said this many times. I think of the War On Terror as being on par with the Cold War. It will conclude after there is a total spread of democracy across the Arab/Muslim world.

India is the new Britain, because ultimately this is about the ideology of democracy. The oldest and the largest democracies belong together. America and India need each other.

Terrorism is "cutting edge" like Climate Change ---- they both require global coordination. No one country can tackle either. 

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ISIS Territory Is The New Rwanda

Map of Rwanda from CIA World Factbook, with province boundaries and names added. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In the worst case scenario, the ISIS territory, even if it does not expand -- I mean, it is not like anyone seriously thinks they will take over everything they want to take over -- is a Rwanda in the making. It is selfish to think the ISIS is a problem only if it blows up a cafe in some rich country. The killings inside ISIS territory have to be of concern. Once ISIS has reached its territorial limits and it becomes super hard for it to expand, it is going to turn inwards, and it is going to keep looking for enemies within. Already unacceptable levels of killings are going to go up several notches. What will the world do then? Sit and watch? What is the threshold? Is it half a million dead? At what point does the world intervene?

ISIS is not a religion, it is not a state, it is a cult. It is not even a terrorist organization like the Al Qaeda, it is a cult.

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India Is The New Britain: Thanks To Muslims And China

The oldest democracy of modern times (the first republic was in the time of Buddha) has the historic burden to see through a total spread of democracy as it works its own way to a more perfect union. I hope for peaceful methods and ways, but violence was a part of World War II, the Cold War, and now is a part of the (for lack of a better phrase) War On Terror. When you do the math, China glares you in the face. Should the War on Terror - and the only way it can conclude is after a total spread of democracy has been achieved across the Muslim world - conclude, what is next? China?

When the tussle between capitalism and communism first began, capitalism/democracy first responded by creating an elaborate welfare state. Was that communism's victory? I don't know. But that sure made the case of democracy much stronger. Similarly China makes a clear case for campaign finance reform in political systems like America, even as it fights the losing battle of keeping the lid on political reform.

But if democracy is to be spread across the Muslim/Arab world and democracy is to be spread across China, India finds itself at the center of the universe. India has a huge Muslim population. Not only that, India needs to prove democracy works for Muslims and is right by the Muslims. India also is one of the countries (like Japan, the Phillippines, Vietnam, and others, you could argue Taiwan) with which China likes to pick small fights on border issues. That is little to do with unsettled borders and much to do with the tussle between fundamentally different political systems that can not co-exist forever. In a democracy, the system is designed such that the people get to blame the politicians in power and kick them out. But autocracies are designed in ways that the system necessarily needs to create and sustain external enemies to rally the people behind, kind of like a safety valve. And so China needs to keep picking small fights with Japan and India, and it needs to keep threatening Taiwan. It is the nature of the beast. Curiously the same China seems to have no border problems with Russia, another land starving for democracy.

India has to have one uniform civil code for all its citizens, Hindus, Muslims and everyone else. The Sharia law has no place in a democracy. The separation between church/temple/mosque and the state is fundamental to how a modern democracy works. On the other hand, there is a need for some soul searching as to why Muslims in India lag on all socio-economic indicators. The Indian democracy does not seem to be working for Indian Muslims. That Hindus in Pakistan and Bangladesh have it rougher is no excuse.

An America-India-Japan-Australia alliance, not to contain or counter China, but to keep the Indian and Pacific oceans open for commerce and rules based order is a welcome step. China's saber rattling has been unnerving too many across too many countries over the years.

The oldest and the largest democracies are but natural partners. India is the new Britain. Two dudes who look like MLK and Gandhi rule the two largest democracies on the planet. We must be living in a post-colonial world.

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Dead, Dead, Dead

Bin Laden Was In A Huge House
Bin Laden: Dead

Arab Democracy: What The US Needs To Do: Stay Deeply Engaged

Image via WikipediaThe US is uniquely positioned to conclude the War On Terror in 2011. The Cold War lasted decades. If we play our cards right, the War On Terror will have only lasted a decade. And Barack Obama might qualify for yet another Nobel Peace Prize.

The way the War On Terror concludes is when every Arab country has been turned into a modern democracy. The roadmap is simple. People come out into the streets and shut the country down completely until the dictator vacates the seat of power. They don't have to leave the country. They just have to vacate the seat of power without engaging in any bloodshed. Then an interim government takes over. That cabinet has one year to hold elections to a constituent assembly. And that's it.

Where the US federal government comes in is there is no other entity that has the option to stay deeply engaged with all levels of the state apparatus in these countries. The idea is to stay neutral politically in the beginning, but make sure there is no bloodshed. And then once the streets have boiled over and achieved tipping point, you call for the dictator's ouster in no unclear terms. You don't incite the street protests. You don't help escalate it. But once they hit that tipping point, you stand on the side of democracy. The clearer stand you take, less bloodshed there will be, and smoother the transitions will be in those countries.

This is not the time to stay neutral. Revolution is not a spectator sport, not for those braving the streets, not for the President Of The United States, not for the Vice President Of The United States, not for the US Secretary Of State.

This momentum that took centuries to build can not be wasted. This is our opportunity to turn the tables across the Arab world. If the sexism in the Arab world has been bothering you, now is the time to act. A country that becomes a democracy starts taking steps to curb all that sexism.

Egypt: The Army May Not Take Over
Arab Dictators Are Shaking
Egypt: A Revolution, Not A Reform Movement
How Many People Could Mubarak Kill?
Arab Dictators Will Fall Like A House Of Cards

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