The Military-Industrial Complexes in the US and Russia: Major Culprits in the Ukraine War
In the tragic and ongoing conflict in Ukraine, many factors have contributed to the violence and suffering. While geopolitical ambitions, historical tensions, and nationalistic fervor are often highlighted, another critical yet less discussed element is the role of the military-industrial complexes in both the United States and Russia. These powerful entities, driven by profit and influence, have significantly shaped the trajectory of the war, complicating efforts towards peace and stability.
Understanding the Military-Industrial Complex
The term "military-industrial complex" was popularized by former U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower in his farewell address in 1961. It refers to the close and often symbiotic relationship between a nation's military, its defense industry, and its government. This complex wields considerable influence over national policy, with the potential to prioritize defense spending and military action over diplomatic and peaceful solutions.
The US Military-Industrial Complex: Profit and Influence
The United States boasts one of the largest and most advanced military-industrial complexes in the world. Comprising major defense contractors, lobbyists, and government officials, this network exerts a powerful influence over American foreign and defense policies. In the context of the Ukraine war, the US military-industrial complex has played a significant role in shaping the country's response.
Arms Sales and Military Aid: The U.S. has provided substantial military aid to Ukraine, including advanced weaponry, intelligence, and training. While this support is often justified as necessary to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression, it also benefits American defense contractors, who see increased sales and profits.
Lobbying and Policy Shaping: Defense contractors and their lobbyists have a vested interest in promoting policies that sustain or escalate military engagements. The conflict in Ukraine provides a justification for continued or increased defense spending, which benefits these corporations financially.
Media and Public Perception: The military-industrial complex also influences media narratives, shaping public opinion to support military interventions. By framing the conflict in terms of good versus evil, and emphasizing the need for a strong response, these narratives can marginalize diplomatic alternatives.
The Russian Military-Industrial Complex: Power and Propaganda
In Russia, the military-industrial complex is similarly entrenched, though it operates within a different political and economic context. The Russian government maintains close ties with its defense industry, which serves both as a crucial economic sector and a tool of state power.
State-Controlled Defense Sector: Unlike in the U.S., Russia's defense industry is more centralized and state-controlled. Major arms manufacturers are often directly or indirectly owned by the state, aligning their interests with those of the government. The war in Ukraine has been a catalyst for ramping up production and testing new weaponry, benefiting the military-industrial sector.
Economic Motives: For Russia, the military-industrial complex also serves as a vital source of revenue and employment. Sanctions and economic isolation have limited Russia's options, making the defense industry an even more critical component of its economy. The war in Ukraine has provided a pretext for increasing defense expenditures, bolstering this sector.
Propaganda and Nationalism: The Russian government has utilized the conflict to foster nationalism and support for the state. The military-industrial complex is part of this propaganda machine, portraying military might as a symbol of national pride and sovereignty.
The Consequences: Escalation and Entrenchment
The involvement of the military-industrial complexes in both the U.S. and Russia has several profound consequences for the Ukraine war:
Escalation of Violence: The provision of advanced weaponry and military support has escalated the conflict, making it more lethal and difficult to resolve. The profit motive of defense contractors, coupled with geopolitical interests, incentivizes continued or increased military engagement.
Obstacles to Peace: The vested interests of the military-industrial complexes create significant obstacles to diplomatic efforts. Both in the U.S. and Russia, powerful actors benefit from the status quo or from an escalation, rather than a resolution, of the conflict.
Humanitarian Impact: The war's human toll is immense, with thousands killed, millions displaced, and widespread destruction. The priorities of the military-industrial complexes, focused on profit and power, often overshadow humanitarian concerns, exacerbating the suffering.
Conclusion: A Call for Accountability
The role of the military-industrial complexes in the Ukraine war is a stark reminder of the dangers posed by the intertwining of defense industries and state power. As the conflict drags on, it is crucial to recognize and challenge the influence of these entities, advocating for policies that prioritize peace, diplomacy, and human well-being over profit and militarism.
Only by addressing these underlying dynamics can we hope to find a lasting resolution to the conflict and prevent similar situations in the future. It is time for a global reckoning with the military-industrial complexes that, too often, drive nations towards war instead of peace.
Putin, in his speeches, falls to the gender topic as a reflex action. I need to stay in power or they will come and turn your children into transvestites! I needed to go to war or they might have come and dressed your children into drag queen attires! Send 300,000 men to the front or they might come and turn men into women, and women into men! It is bizarre logic.
Alexei Navalny was safe. He did not have to go back to Russia. It was certain they would jail him and worse. But still he went. And he has indeed been subjected to jail and worse.
Zelensky fights for Navalny.
One man suffers so his country might not have to suffer indefinitely. Navalny chose to go. He was safe abroad.
But the thing about the moral fiber of someone like Alexei Navalny is it is a rope. It ties him to you, and it ties him to me. There is no escape route. You don't have the option to be quiet. You don't have the luxury of inaction. This is the spiritual reality. Just like your soul is a spiritual reality. It is true. It exists. It is indestructible. It is not the pancreas that a surgeon might dig out. But it is much more real. Your soul is more real than heaven and earth.
By choosing to go to jail and suffer Alexei Navalny communicates with the rest of us at the level that souls talk to each other. You can not look the other way. This man speaks for a nation.
Russians are not a different species. Or they might not have been able to produce the world class literature they have. Russians are long accustomed to the life of the mind. They are one of the best suited for this knowledge economy.
I am a friend of Russia. I want the best for Russia. I want a Russia that is richer, more secure, and yes, I want a Russia that is a power. Major powers like the United States and even China need other power centers. The global system needs a strong Russia to provide a counterbalance. How can there be freedom of thought and freedom of speech and freedom of conscience if truth can not be told to power? Be that to powerful America or to a powerful China?
The fight is inside Russia. The fight is in Moscow. All it will take is for one million Russians to take over the streets and not leave until Putin resigns.
I am not liking the war in Ukraine. I want peace. The path to peace is not this talk or that talk. The path to peace is a mass movement for democracy inside Russia that installs Navalny as the country's interim president who steers the country to elections to a constituent assembly. A democratic, federal Russia will make NATO irrelevant, keep Russia one, and shift the center of gravity in Europe to Kyiv.
Putin is a blight on the Russian conscience. Navalny is Russia's Mandela.
The Kremlin throws cold water on China mediating peace in Ukraine as Macron urges Xi to 'bring Russia to its senses' "So far there are no prospects for a political settlement," the Kremlin said. ....... The Kremlin on Thursday said there were "no prospects" for China to play the role of mediator in Moscow's unprovoked war against Ukraine at present, as French President Emmanuel Macron met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and urged him to "bring Russia to its senses." .......... Peskov said there were "no other ways" forward for Russia aside from continuing its offensive in Ukraine, signaling that Moscow has no interest in negotiations in the foreseeable future. ....... This came after Macron in Beijing said that Russia had dealt a blow to international stability by invading Ukraine, and called on Xi to push Russia to see reason and "bring everyone back to the negotiating table." ......... Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has invited Xi to visit Ukraine and repeatedly expressed a desire to speak with him. The two leaders have not spoken since Russia invaded over a year ago. ........ China has claimed that it's neutral in the Ukraine war and unveiled a peace plan in February on the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion. ........ The war in Ukraine has made Putin a global pariah and isolated Russia economically and politically, but the Russian leader on Wednesday insisted that his country remains a "respected center of world politics." .
China’s Ambassador to the E.U. Tries to Distance Beijing From Moscow The ambassador, Fu Cong, said China was not on Russia’s side in the war in Ukraine. “‘No limit’ is nothing but rhetoric,” he said, referring to a statement from last year about the countries’ relationship......... China tries to present itself as a mediator, insisting that it respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine while endorsing some of Moscow’s narrative about the war. ...... China had not provided military assistance to Russia, nor recognized its efforts to annex Ukrainian territories, including Crimea and the Donbas. ........... Beijing has not condemned the invasion, he said, because it understood Russia’s claims about a defensive war against NATO encroachment, and because his government believes “the root causes are more complicated” than Western leaders say. ......... In her speech, Ms. von der Leyen described the E.U.-China relationship as having become “more distant and more difficult,” and endorsed the view of China as an assertive global player seeking to become “the world’s most powerful nation.” ............. the bloc should “de-risk” its relationship with China by setting new ground rules rather than “decoupling” or withdrawing. ........... China was the third-largest destination of E.U. exported goods in 2022, and the largest exporter of goods to the bloc ......... He said Europe should carve out its own policies and develop more “strategic autonomy,” instead of following Washington’s lead. ......... the backdrop to Mr. Macron’s visit, as it was to the visit of Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, in November, with both accompanied by businessmen eager to continue to do deals with China. ...... “E.U. claims to be a big center, a power center in the world, an independent power center in the world, as much as the United States, as much as China,” Mr. Fu said. “So why does it have to listen to the United States all the time?” .
Brooke Shields and the Curse of Great Beauty “Pretty Baby,” a new documentary on Hulu, explores the toll that sexual and commercial objectification takes on women....... Ms. Shields was a generational touchstone of the 1970s and ’80s, an omnipresent vision — in magazines, television ads and films — of astonishing natural beauty. Luminous deep-blue eyes under those famous dark brows, delicate features, dimpled smile and a glossy brunette mane. By the time she was a preteen, her look had developed — or rather, been groomed into — an improbable blend of Renaissance angel and vamp. ....... We use beautiful young women’s sexuality to sell products (including films); we conflate the women with the products; we imagine women need to be ever newer, younger and shinier — like products. As a result, we grow inured to seeing barely pubescent girls presented as “things,” as erotic commodities. (Driving the point home, the film features an old television ad for toys made in Ms. Shields’s likeness, with the tagline “Brooke Shields: She’s a real living doll.”) ....... The film offers many examples of the exploitation and abuse (including one outright sexual assault) suffered by Ms. Shields ........ a loving but troubled (and alcoholic) single mother, Teri Shields, who also served as her manager, and Ms. Shields understood early that her career provided the family’s sole income. ........ Ms. Shields’s uncannily adult persona remained as impeccable and serene as her appearance. But there is a static quality to her in these clips, a blankness suggesting the practiced deflection of disturbing emotion, as if being treated constantly as an object had nearly turned her into one. ......... Recounting the director Franco Zeffirelli’s attempts to extract from her, 16 and a virgin, a scene of erotic “ecstasy” in the film “Endless Love,” Ms. Shields recalls: “I just dissociated.” (Off camera, to try to simulate passion, Mr. Zeffirelli repeatedly twisted Ms. Shields’s toe, causing her to cry out and contort her face in pain.) In such moments, she says she was “zooming out, seeing a situation but you are not connected to it. You instantly become a vapor of yourself.” ......... Eventually Ms. Shields overcame this vaporous existence, largely through the saving grace of a college education. Encouraged by her professors at Princeton to voice her own opinions, Ms. Shields says she “learned I could think for myself,” which “morphed into this big rebellion.” ........... She set boundaries with her controlling mother, discovered her untapped talents for comedy and dance (with which she could break free of those beautiful blank-slate roles) and, for the first time, found a boyfriend. .........
the story of the terrible toll that sexual and commercial objectification takes on women
....... When Ms. Shields’s image is on the screen, it’s almost impossible to look away. It’s that magnetism that everyone wants to bottle and sell. It’s what launched her career. .
‘It Was Not Love at First Sight’ It took Samantha Weinstein and Philip Della Noce a few years to form a friendship, and another few more to become romantic......... “I got to Toronto, and the first person I called was Samantha,” Mr. Della Noce said. “We FaceTimed every single day.” .
As hostilities intensify, Russian and Iranian cells are expected to take out lightly guarded soft targets in the U.S., including reservoirs, bridges, electrical grids, and fiber-optic cable systems – and insiders believe the attacks have already begun............ In the last three months, at least nine electrical substations have been attacked in North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington State, cutting power to tens of thousands of people and sparking a review of security standards for the national power grid.......... While three white supremacists recently pleaded guilty to conspiring to disrupt generating stations throughout America, key intelligence experts believe the domestic terrorists were following a path trail-blazed by Russian saboteurs.
How the Oscars and Grammys Thrive on the Lie of Meritocracy Despite all the markers of excellence, contenders like Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis and Beyoncé weren’t recognized for the highest honors. Niche awards don’t suffice. ........ Beyoncé, one of the most prolific and transformative artists of the 21st century, can win only in niche categories. Her music — a continually evolving and genre-defying sound — still can’t be seen as the standard-bearer for the universal. ......... Black women artists, despite their ingenuity, influence and, in Beyoncé’s case, unparalleled innovation, continue to be denied their highest honors. ........ the false myth of meritocracy upon which these institutions, their ceremonies and their gatekeepers thrive. ......... we saw a new Oscar strategy playing out before our eyes. A groundswell of fellow actors, including A-listers like Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet and even Cate Blanchett, who would go on to be nominated herself, publicly endorsed Riseborough’s performance on social media, at screenings and even at a prize ceremony. ......... “So it’s only the films and actors that can afford the campaigns that deserve recognition?” Ricci wrote in a now-deleted Instagram post. “Feels elitist and exclusive and frankly very backward to me.” ........ What fascinated me, however, was that what was being framed as a grass-roots campaign to circumvent studio marketing machines revealed another inside game. A racially homogeneous network of white Hollywood stars appeared to vote in a small but significant enough bloc to ensure their candidate was nominated. .......... As conceived by Dominik, Monroe merely flits from injury to injury, all in the service of making her downfall inevitable. ....... another pattern: Oscar voters continue to reward women’s emotional excess more than their restraint. In most films with best actress nominations this year, women’s anger as outbursts is a common thread .......... “Everything Everywhere All at Once” brilliantly explores it as both a response to IRS bureaucratic inefficacy and intergenerational tensions between a Chinese immigrant mother and her queer, Asian American daughter. ............ “Blonde” is again an exception, for de Armas’s Monroe expresses no external rage but sinks into depression and self-loathing, never directing her frustration at the many men who abuse her. .......... Unlike the main characters of the other films, Till-Mobley, in real life, had to repress her rational rage over the gruesome murder of her son, Emmett, to find justice and protect his legacy. Onscreen, Deadwyler captured that paradox by portraying Till-Mobley’s constantly shifting self and her struggle to privately grieve her son’s death while simultaneously being asked to speak on behalf of a burgeoning civil rights movement. ............
female protagonists are often lauded for falling apart.
............ even that assumes that all women’s emotions are treated equally, when the truth is that rage itself is racially coded ....... depict Black women’s rage as an individual emotion and a collective dissent, a combination that deviates from many on-screen representations of female anger as a downward spiral and self-destructive. ............... the “Till” director Chinonye Chukwu critiqued Hollywood on Instagram for its “unabashed misogyny towards Black women” ........ “What is this inability of Academy voters to see Black women, and their humanity, and their heroism, as relatable to themselves?” ......... there are far more Black women directors and complex Black women characters on the big screen than ever before
At the Oscar Nominees Luncheon, a Crowd in Cruise Control The “Top Gun: Maverick” star and producer is mobbed as Austin Butler, Angela Bassett, Ke Huy Quan and others angle to chat with him........ lk into the ballroom of the Beverly Hilton. ....... Cruise even posed for pictures with Steven Spielberg, a once-frequent collaborator whom the star has not been publicly photographed with in over a decade. ..... there was no mistaking Cruise as the ballroom’s top dog ........ In the schmoozy hour before lunch was served, he was so mobbed by his fellow nominees that he was hardly able to move more than a few feet. ........ I watched for a while as “Elvis” star Austin Butler drifted with slow, inexorable determination toward Cruise, who finally pulled the younger man toward him by clamping a hand on his shoulder like a stapler. ....... Yang pleaded with the nominees to keep their speeches short: “We need to be sensitive to our running time,” she said. “This is live television, after all.” .......... “I’ve been acting since I was 19 and I’m 64 — do the math,” Curtis told me. “That’s many years of watching this photograph being taken.” Her late parents, the actors Tony Curtis and Janet Leigh, had both been Oscar nominees. “To be connected through this legacy of their work and my work and now being included here, it’s very powerful,” she said. ......... “I’ve got one more expression,” shouted best-actor nominee Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”). ...... “We talked about how we both did very badly at school,” she said, “and now here we are, at the coolest graduation picture ever.”
‘Our Losses Were Gigantic’: Life in a Sacrificial Russian Assault Wave Poorly trained Russian soldiers captured by Ukraine describe being used as cannon fodder by commanders throwing waves of bodies into an assault........ The soldiers were sitting ducks, sent forth by Russian commanders to act essentially as human cannon fodder in an assault. ........ relying on overwhelming manpower, much of it comprising inexperienced, poorly trained conscripts, regardless of the high rate of casualties. ........ two main uses of the conscripts in these assaults: as “storm troops” who move in waves, followed by more experienced Russian fighters; and as intentional targets, to draw fire and thus identify Ukrainian positions to hit with artillery. ....... “The next group would follow after a pause of 15 or 20 minutes, then another, then another.” ........... By luck, the bullets missed him, he said. He lay in the dark until he was captured by Ukrainians who slipped into the buffer area between the two trench lines. ......... The soldiers in Sergei’s squad were recruited from penal colonies by the private military company known as Wagner, whose forces have mostly been deployed in the Bakhmut area. There, they have enabled Russian lines to move forward slowly, cutting key resupply roads for the Ukrainian Army. ........ Russia’s deployment of former convicts is a dark chapter in a vicious war. Russia Behind Bars, a prison rights group, has estimated that as many as 50,000 Russian prisoners have been recruited since last summer, with most sent to the battle for Bakhmut. ........... Russia has deployed about 320,000 soldiers in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency. An additional 150,000 are in training camps, officials said, meaning there is the potential for half a million soldiers to join the offensive. ........
But using infantry to storm trenches, redolent of World War I, brings high casualties.
......... Russia’s regular army this month began recruiting convicts in exchange for pardons, shifting the practice on the Russian side in the war from the Wagner private army to the military. ......... rates of wounded and killed at around 70 percent in battalions featuring former convicts ......... over the past two weeks, Russia had probably suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion. ......... “Nobody could ever believe such a thing could exist,” Sergei said of Wagner tactics. .......... The soldiers arrived at the front straight from Russia’s penal colony system, which is rife with abuse and where obedience to harsh codes of conduct in a violent setting is enforced by prison gangs and guards alike. The same sense of beaten subjugation persists at the front ........... enabling commanders to send soldiers forward on
hopeless, human wave attacks
. ................ “We are nobody and have no rights.” ......... Sergei said he had worked as a cellphone tower technician in a far-northern Siberian city, living with his wife and three children. In the interview, he admitted to dealing marijuana and meth, for which he was sentenced to 10 years in prison in 2020. ......... was not offered to rapists and drug addicts, but murderers, burglars and other prisoners were welcome. .......... On the night of Jan. 1, they were commanded to advance 500 yards along the tree line, then dig in and wait for a subsequent wave to arrive. One soldier carried a light machine gun. The others were armed with only assault rifles and hand grenades. ........... “It’s effective. Yes, they have heavy losses. But with these heavy losses, they sometimes advance.” ........... they are being used to conserve tanks and armored personnel carriers for the expected offensive. But they could also serve as a template for wider fighting. .......... are herded into the battlefield by harsh discipline: “They have orders, and they cannot disobey orders, especially in Wagner.” .......... “They brought us to a basement, divided us into five-person groups and, though we hadn’t been trained, told us to run ahead, as far as we could go” ............ From his time as a stretcher bearer, he said, he estimated that half of the men in each assault were wounded or killed, with shrapnel and bullet wounds the most common injuries. .........
Affirm The Dignity Of Your Adversary “Keep strong, if possible. In any case, keep cool. Have unlimited patience. Never corner an opponent, and always assist him to save face. Put yourself in his shoes—so as to see things through his eyes. Avoid self-righteousness like the devil—nothing is so self-blinding.”
Maoists like to say, the party controls the gun. The political has to control the military.
The military-industrial complex in the United States can not be allowed to have the upper hand like in Afghanistan. We are on the brink of possible nuclear disaster. The world can not count on Putin being rational. The world can not count on Putin's orders for nuclear strike being disobeyed. The world should not have to count on a coup inside Russia.
I was glad when the HIMARS landed inside Ukraine and the tide turned.
But a war where the military-industrial complex is steering the wheel is a mercenary war. Follow the money. This has to be a war for liberty. This has to be primarily a political fight.
Peace efforts have to be made. The political players have to be primary. A peacemaker necessarily has to be a neutral player. Right now only India qualifies. I see a Nobel Peace Prize here for the Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar.
India is now president of the G20. By the end of the decade it will have become a larger economy than the United States. And it is the only big power that is equally close to both Russia and the United States.
I actually see Putin's point. When there are ethnic riots in Indonesia, or Malaysia, it is the ethnic Chinese that suffer. India blockaded Nepal for months several years ago when the ethnic Indians inside Nepal were short shifted in the country's new constitution that was drawn in smoky rooms instead of a constituent assembly. My guess is the ethnic Russians inside Ukraine are in some sort of a predicament. Jaishankar was the top bureaucrat in the Indian Foreign Ministry at the time and was specifically tasked to fly over to Kathmandu by Modi for some last minute messaging. He was rebuffed.
You can not make peace unless you really, really listen to both sides. A power that sides with the US in knee-jerk manners could not make peace. A power that might be the next Russia (read: Taiwan) can not make the peace moves. Only India can. And India should jump into the fray. You don't need permission. Whose permission?
A Russian missile did land in Poland. Lithuania is nervous. The world can not afford this game of Russian roulette.
What does Russia want? Russia wants the ethnic Russians inside Ukraine to have political equality. What does Ukraine want? Ukraine wants its 1991 borders. Russia promised to respect that. Is it possible Putin is not being straight? It is. But peace can only be made by the wise and the strong. Jaishankar is no bit player. This is the Indian diplomats' momement to shine. India wants veto power. It should earn it by forging this peace.
Russia has to be willing to withdraw its military completely. But that territory can not be handed over to Ukraine. UN peacekeeping forces should step in. Something like a year should be allowed. A referendum should be organized under global supervision. Ukraine will have the option to put forth power devolutions such that these regions where the ethnic Russians are in majority feel there is plenty of local autonomy. Ukraine can proactively offer that kind of federalism long before the votes are cast. I thik this much political work Ukraine has to be willing to do. The war can not be about land. The tussle has to be about people.
Politics inside Russia is a separate topic. That is not an agenda for the peace process. But a peace process that gets the Russian military to vacate all of Ukraine will also bring back all those Russians who have fled, including those who dodged the draft. There is high chance they might take to the streets in organized fashions. But that is domestic Russian politics. That is not something for the peace process.
As the peace process advances, other topics can also be tackled. Reconstruction and neutral war crime investigations can be carried out. Both leave room for some creativity. Maybe there are powers like Saudi Arabia that will be happy to chip in some. That can be allowed. Why not?
The political has to be above the military. A top US General just went on record to say he does not see how Ukraine can militarily push out Russia from all of Ukraine any time soon. So why not use the winter for peace efforts and political moves?
India does not need America's permission. Use the same oil and food logic you have been using to keep buying Russian oil. To that add nuclear radiation fears. You don't want nuclear radiation in New York and London. There is a very famous Indian in London these days. His name is Rishik Sunak.
I was very actively involved with Nepal's peace process in 2005 and 2006. The American ambassador at the time kept arguing there was only a military solution. The Maoists must be defeated at the point of a gun. It was so obvious to me that was not an available path. In trying lied thousands of dead bodies and mayhem. Only the political path was possible. The political path was taken. Nepal saw rapid peace. The Moist supremo and his deputy both became Prime Minister. Both are still active politically. The supremo is right now campaigning in a national election. He is peacefully asking for votes and is pretty good at it.
American shine can mask a lot of uncivility and crude thinking. The gun speaks is one such thinking. It is bad thinking. Look at the gun deaths in America. There are people who worry the US might see a civil war in the future. There are 50,000 gun deaths every year in America. In any other country you would call that a civil war. It is not a very civil situation. Nepal's civil war lasted 10 years and cost 17,000 lives.
India must jump in and help make the peace. Peace necessarily involves give and take. The final outcome can not be fully foreseen. There will be twists and turns along the way. But right now there is zero effort. Stop asking for permission. Whose permission? New York City announced nuclear attack drills months ago.
Before the tactical nuclear strike, there can be electrical outages. That is plenty of bad news. If there is a nuclear strike, however small, the US has made explicit its intention to completely destroy the Russian military in all of Ukraine and the Black Sea. At that point Russia backs down or it launches the strategic nukes which is Mutually Assured Destruction, the so-called MAD situation. That will not spare any country, not China, not India. No territory, no ideology, no value is worth that destruction. So step in and help the two powers step back. De-escalate. Help de-escalate.
Ukraine has to be willing to forge a most cutting edge federalism for all of Ukraine. That is no price to pay to keep all of its territory.
Russia’s Road to Economic Ruin The Long-Term Costs of the Ukraine War Will Be Staggering ........ After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the Russian economy seemed destined for a nosedive. International sanctions threatened to strangle the economy, leading to a plunge in the value of the ruble and Russian financial markets. Everyday Russians appeared poised for privation. ......... More than eight months into the war, this scenario has not come to pass. Indeed, some data suggest that the opposite is true, and the Russian economy is doing fine. The ruble has strengthened against the dollar, and although Russian GDP has shrunk, the contraction may well be limited to less than three percent in 2022.......... Look behind the moderate GDP contraction and inflation figures, however, and it becomes evident that the damage is in fact severe: the Russian economy is destined for a long period of stagnation. The state was already interfering in the private sector before the war. That tendency has become only more pronounced, and it threatens to further stifle innovation and market efficiency. The only way to preserve the viability of the Russian economy is through either major reforms—which are not in the offing—or an institutional disruption similar to the one that occurred with the fall of the Soviet Union. .......... unrealistic expectations of what economic measures can do ......... Economic sanctions did, of course, have other immediate effects. Curbing Russia’s access to microelectronics, chips, and semiconductors made production of cars and aircraft almost impossible. From March to August, Russian car manufacturing fell by an astonishing 90 percent, and the drop in aircraft production was similar. The same holds true for the production of weapons, which is understandably a top priority for the government. Expectations that new trade routes through China, Turkey, and other countries that are not part of the sanctions regime would compensate for the loss of Western imports have been proved wrong. The abnormally strong ruble is a signal that backdoor import channels are not working. If imports were flowing into Russia through hidden channels, importers would have been buying dollars, sending the ruble down. Without these critical imports, the long-term health of Russia’s high-tech industry is dire. ............ Even more consequential than Western technology sanctions is the fact that Russia is unmistakably entering a period in which political cronies are solidifying their hold on the private sector. This has been a long time in the making. After the 2008 global financial crisis hit Russia harder than any other G-20 country, Russian President Vladimir Putin essentially nationalized large enterprises. In some cases, he placed them under direct government control; in other cases, he placed them under the purview of state banks. To stay in the government’s good graces, these companies have been expected to maintain a surplus of workers on their payrolls. Even enterprises that remained private have in essence been prohibited from firing employees. This has provided the Russian people with economic security—at least for the time being—and that stability is a critical part of Putin’s compact with his constituents. .......... But an economy in which enterprises cannot modernize, restructure, and fire employees to boost profits will stagnate. Not surprisingly,
Russia’s GDP growth from 2009 to 2021 averaged 0.8 percent per year, lower than the period in the 1970s and 1980s that preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union.
........ government officials, military generals, and high-ranking bureaucrats—many of them Putin’s friends—became multimillionaires. The living standards of ordinary Russians, in contrast, have not improved in the past decade. ......... Since the beginning of the war, the government has tightened its grip on the private sector even further. Starting in March, the Kremlin rolled out laws and regulations that give the government the right to shut down businesses, dictate production decisions, and set prices for manufactured goods. The mass mobilization of military recruits that started in September is providing Putin with another cudgel to wield over Russian businesses because to preserve their workforces, company leaders will need to bargain with government officials to ensure that their employees are exempt from conscription. ......... To be sure, the Russian economy has long operated under a government stranglehold. But Putin’s most recent moves are taking this control to a new level. As the economists Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny have argued, the one thing worse than corruption is decentralized corruption. It’s bad enough when a corrupt central government demands bribes; it is even worse when several different government offices are competing for handouts. ....... That could create a dynamic reminiscent of the 1990s, when Russian business owners relied on private security, mafia ties, and corrupt officials to maintain control of newly privatized enterprises. Criminal gangs employing veterans of the Russian war in Afghanistan offered “protection” to the highest bidder or simply plundered profitable businesses. The mercenary groups that Putin created to fight in Ukraine will play the same role in the future. .......... Russia could lose the war, an outcome that would make it more likely that Putin would lose power. A new reformist government could take over and withdraw troops, consider reparations, and negotiate a lifting of trade sanctions. ......... Russia will emerge from the war with its government exercising authority over the private sector to an extent that is unprecedented anywhere in the world aside from Cuba and North Korea. ........ Particularly at first, they will target the most profitable enterprises, both at the national and local level. ......... The collapse of the Soviet state made institutions of that era irrelevant. A long and painful process of building new institutions, increasing state capacity, and reducing corruption followed—until Putin came to power and eventually dismantled market institutions and built his own system of patronage. The lesson is grim: even if Putin loses power and a successor ushers in significant reforms, it will take at least a decade for Russia to return to the levels of private-sector production and quality of life the country experienced just a year ago. Such are the consequences of a disastrous, misguided war. .
Let us not tire of doing everything possible for the dramatic urgency of climate change. Let us put concrete, far-sighted choices in act, thinking of the younger generations first, before it is too late! #COP27
Even if everything Trump is saying about Suleimani is true (and that is not the case), it does not make sense to spend a few trillion dollars to go to war with Iran. That would be like taking a US Army to a one on one knife fight. The US Congress has every right to make sure the Iran War does not happen. A full-fledged war with Iran will give the global economy a heart attack. The world could be back in the 1930s, and we would see a Trump on every island on earth.
Trump's threats to Iraq totally discredit his arguments as to why economic sanctions need to be imposed upon Iran. Iraq is a sovereign country. The US troops are in Iraq because they got invited in by the sovereign government of Iraq, duly elected, mind you. Looks like that welcome is over. A better political mind could have seen this coming.
Two parliaments have voted to give a clear message to Trump. That is enough. Trump has to listen. Iran War is not an option. Trump can not legitimately go to war with Iran.
US Defence Secretary Mark Esper says the US is "seeking a diplomatic solution" to US-Iran tensions, but "requires Iran to deescalate" and "cease their malign activities"https://t.co/l4DqVNGpLIpic.twitter.com/uV39tC17Ca
"Iran’s religious architecture displays a mastery of geometry, abstract design and pre-industrial engineering practically unparalleled in civilisation. This is is not just Iran’s cultural heritage, it is humanity’s." - @steverose7#NoWarOnIranhttps://t.co/u470dfYZxk
--The release of the Mueller report --A Supreme Court nominee --Legislation that would make it easier to vote --Clean energy investments --Gun safety legislation --A $15 minimum wage --Anti-corruption laws
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declined to reveal any evidence of a threat posed by slain Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani even as he defended the assassination and warned Iran not to retaliate.https://t.co/ggA1J1jdUp
Here's what could be lost if Trump bombs Iran's cultural treasures If carried out, Donald Trump’s threat to target “cultural sites” in Iran would put him into an axis of architectural evil alongside the Taliban and Isis, both of which have wreaked similar forms of destruction this century. The Taliban dynamited Afghanistan’s sixth-century Buddhas of Bamiyan in 2001; Isis has destroyed mosques, shrines and other structures across Iraq and Syria since 2014, some in the ancient city of Palmyra. Not, you might have thought, company the US president would prefer to be associated with. ......... With a civilisation dating back 5,000 years, and over 20 Unesco world heritage sites, Iran’s cultural heritage is rich and unique, especially its religious architecture, which displays a mastery of geometry, abstract design and pre-industrial engineering practically unparalleled in civilisation. This is is not just Iran’s cultural heritage, it is humanity’s....... Iran has a long Christian history, particularly associated with Armenia at its northwestern border. Three of the oldest churches in the region are Unesco world heritage sites. Vank Cathedral, near Isfahan, was built by Armenians fleeing the Ottoman wars in the 17th century. The interior is a riotous patchwork of frescoes and gilded carvings.
Many Chinese students have hostile environment training before heading off to university abroad https://t.co/TIMaoYaomR
Democrats in Congress are preparing resolutions in both the House and the Senate to try to stop President Trump from escalating hostilities in Iran. But how much power they have to curb the president is up for debate. https://t.co/4UgweWqVX1
Trump bars Iran foreign minister from entering US to attend UN meeting, violating terms of a 1947 headquarters agreement requiring Washington to permit foreign officials into country to conduct UN business https://t.co/GjWxaE9kLJ
Met with @EsperDoD to discuss mutual challenges faced by our countries, and emphasize the importance of our ongoing military cooperation, which serves regional and international security.
— Khalid bin Salman خالد بن سلمان (@kbsalsaud) January 7, 2020
“They said it’s a draft. OK, it’s a draft. But we received it. As a state, how are we supposed to act? We should get a second letter to clarify so we can clarify to our people too,” Abdul-Mahdi, who resigned in November but has stayed on in a caretaker role, said, according to the Agence France-Presse. “If I don’t trust you and you don’t trust me, how are we supposed to proceed?” ...... In a prerecorded television address he insisted the US would have to leave....... “We have no exit but this, otherwise we are speeding toward confrontation,” Abdul-Mahdi said, adding that Iraq would have to take a “historic decision” to implement the expulsion. “Otherwise we will not be taken seriously,” he added.
