Showing posts with label Vladimir Putin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vladimir Putin. Show all posts

Monday, May 30, 2022

Putin's War On Ukraine Is A War On The World

Putin's nuclear threats are a threat on cities like Moscow. There is a need for a global initiative to impose a no first use policy on all nuclear powers. Coddling Putin will not get us there. Making nucleat threats has to be outlawed. Putin is an outlaw.

The nuclear threat might or might not be. But the threat on food security is already in plain sight. This is Putin's doing. This world hunger is on Putin.



White People Fearful of Being ‘Replaced’ I would encourage Tucker Carlson at Fox News to invite a dozen or so chiefs from what remain of our Native American tribes to discuss what they think about the “great replacement” in America. ........ Many whites feel inordinately entitled and feel threatened by nonwhites. Republican leaders need to step up to the task of calling out their constituents and colleagues on “replacement theory.” Call it what it is: racism, antisemitism, prejudice, ignorance. ....... “The one thing America makes best is more Americans.”

Putin’s World Order Would Be Devastating for Africa Moscow is already deeply involved in destabilizing wars. ....... On March 2, member states of the United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly in favor of a resolution that strongly condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The resolution, which was supported by 141 member states, affirmed that “any attempt aimed at the … disruption of the territorial integrity of a State … or at its political independence is incompatible with the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter.” The resolution was an affirmation of the legal guardrails and norms that have guided international relations since the conclusion of World War II and the ratification of the United Nations Charter in 1945. ............. 17 African countries abstained, with another eight choosing to not participate. One country even voted against the resolution, Eritrea, a totalitarian dictatorship. ....... Putin is attempting to undermine the global order that has guided international relations for the better part of the last century. Building on Russia’s previous annexation of Crimea and parts of northern Georgia as well as its prior occupation of Ukraine’s Donbas region, Putin is taking a sledgehammer to the foundation of the once stable post-World War II order. ........... At stake are established notions of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the independence of member states, which suddenly become more temporal, arbitrary, and open to violent contestation. ...... Kenya’s permanent representative to the United Nations: ambassador Martin Kimani, who warned Putin and the Russian military to respect its border with Ukraine, using Africa’s own colonial past to highlight the dangers of stoking the “embers of dead empires.” ........... There are currently some 100 contested borders on the continent, most of them stemming from arbitrarily drawn colonial boundaries. ........ Established during the postcolonial independence period, many African states were born out of a commitment to self-determination. Ironically, this is the central issue being contested today by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. ......... If the lesson from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is that might makes right, then Africa’s political geography could be perpetually in dispute. In other words, if the overlapping security guarantees provided by both the U.N. and AU charters can be violated with impunity, then what is to stop African leaders who envy Putin’s aggressive brand of authoritarianism from following suit? ............. Already, we see this happening in some parts of Africa. The volatile African Great Lakes region stands out for the fragility of its borders. The eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, has become a target for exploitation by authoritarian leaders in neighboring Rwanda and Uganda. Rwandan President Paul Kagame, officially in power since 2000, and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, have routinely marched their troops and proxies as well as directed their allied rebel groups to seize Congolese territory, loot natural resources, and kill citizens with alarming impunity. ......... Disregarding borders is particularly precarious in the Great Lakes region because it carries with it the potential to reignite one of the most cataclysmic conflicts in recent history. ........... Moscow has played a destabilizing role in Africa. Recent years have illuminated a “new scramble for Africa” as external actors seek to aggressively plant their politics, governance, and economic flags across the continent. Russia has been at the forefront of this predatory behavior by repeatedly propping up isolated and authoritarian leaders—most notably in Libya, Central African Republic, Mali, and Sudan—to advance Moscow’s patently anti-democratic influence. ............. Through the deployment of shadowy and unaccountable mercenary groups, polarizing disinformation campaigns, election interference, and arms-for-resource deals, Russia has gained influence while fostering instability and the increased human rights abuses that ultimately result from it. ............. Russia has also fomented—both covertly and overtly—and been quick to support the many unconstitutional seizures of power recently witnessed in Africa. The spate of coups and increasing instances of African leaders scrapping term limits, for example, better suit Moscow’s vision of remaking the international order in its autocratic mold. .......... most of the 16 ongoing internal conflicts on the continent have deep roots in authoritarian forms of governance.

None of Africa’s established democracies, in contrast, are in conflict.

More authoritarianism, then, can be expected to yield more conflict. ................ Tolerance for predatory interstate behavior globally, moreover, will embolden elevated forms of repression domestically in African states. After all, if the enshrined principles of self-determination and popular participation are not respected in a high-profile instance, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, then what international actors can be compelled to penalize the intimidation or jailing of opposition leaders, the shuttering of independent media outlets, and the brazen rigging of elections in Africa? Growing autocracy would do a grave injustice to the 75 percent of Africans who regularly state that democracy is their preferred form of government. The inevitable repression that will result from an unfettered international order would also lead to a spike in refugee flows and internally displaced populations. ................... As Africans grapple with the more present and disastrous aftershocks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is important to recognize the threat this form of authoritarian expansion will have on the continent if it is normalized. History shows us that impunity is contagious. And apathy in the face of imminent threat is foolhardy. The clear threats emanating from Putin’s worldview defy the principles that are central to an international order that both the U.N. and AU helped foster.




How Putin’s War Caused a Global Food Crisis A “perfect storm” in agriculture is contributing to a global economic unwinding.

Sunday, May 22, 2022

Putin Is Scheduled To Vacate Ukraine Tail Between Legs



We Should Say It. Russia Is Fascist.

It is fair to say it is for the president of Ukraine to decide when and how he will engage in peace talks with his madman adversary. Supplying aid and weapons is one thing. But actually fighting is quite another. And, remember, America offered to fly Zelensky out of the country. Do you want to go? No, I want to stay and fight. Send me some ammo.

Where things stand right now, if we stay on that trajectory, Putin vacates Ukraine tail between legs. And that will be a good outcome. It is in the very nature of dictatorships that when Putin sees military defeat in Ukraine, he will lose support in his inner circles in Moscow. Putin's inner circles function like a prison yard. You watch your back, I will watch mine.

Zelensky is a hero for democracy.

A middle point can be that the Russian army vacates all of Ukraine and there is an internationally supervised referendum in Crimea to decide its final status. If that will get Putin out of the backyard, and we can stop playing will he, will he not about his possible use of nuclear weapons, that middle ground is worth the price for peace. And, of course, he pays for the rebuidling of Ukraine. He has plenty of money in western banks.

There is always a political solution. Just wars are also about arriving at peaceful, political solutions. The contours of a political solution must be explored.

It is moral clarity that sees you through.

Thursday, May 19, 2022

May 19: Ukraine

Estonia’s Tough Voice on Ukraine Urges No Compromise With Putin Kaja Kallas, the prime minister, remembers the repression of life under Soviet rule and sees the same brutality in occupied Ukraine, which she believes is fighting for all of Europe. ........ She remembers the Soviet occupation and a visit to East Berlin in 1988, when she was 11, and her father told her to “breathe in the air of freedom” from West Berlin. And she remembers the stories of 1949, when her mother, Kristi, then a baby, was deported to Siberia in a cattle car with her own mother and grandmother and lived in exile there until she was 10 — part of Moscow’s effort to wipe out Estonia’s elite. .......... Along with Latvia and Lithuania — countries also annexed by the Soviet Union — her country and its fellow Baltic States are some of the smallest and most vulnerable in Europe. ......... as they press Europe’s larger countries to take a hard line against President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and to keep faith with Ukraine and its struggle for freedom. ......... simply suing for peace with Mr. Putin would be a mistake at this stage, she believes, rewarding his aggression. She argues forcefully instead that

Russia must be seen to lose its war against Ukraine

, so that history — that of her family and her country — is not repeated elsewhere. ............ “Peace can’t be the ultimate goal,” she said. “We had peace after the Second World War, but the atrocities for our people started or continued then,” she said, citing mass deportations, killings of the elite and “trying to erase our culture and our language.” .......... NATO was engaged in a massive military exercise in Estonia called “Hedgehog,” involving some 15,000 troops from 14 countries, including participation by the U.S. Navy. It is part of a series of large NATO exercises this month in Central Europe. ........... Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks a turning point in European history and must be defeated at all costs, and without compromise. ......... early support for Ukraine, and more support per capita, from this small nation of 1.3 million people, than any other country in the world. ........... She has been a sharp critic of continuing efforts by other leaders, like Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, to keep contacts with Mr. Putin while Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty and its existence as an independent state. ....... only the Ukrainian government and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, should be negotiating with Mr. Putin, whom she considers a war criminal. .......... “The conversation has to happen between Zelensky and Putin, because they are part of the war and their skin is in the game,” she said. The Ukrainians “are the only ones who can say what is their room for maneuver,” she said, “because it’s their people who suffer.” ........... There are some in Europe, including important business executives, who want the war in Ukraine over as quickly as possible, given the sharp increases in the price of energy, grain, cooking oil and countless other items leading to record inflation, in part caused by Europe’s harsh sanctions on Russia. .............. only Ukrainians are doing the fighting for what she considers the values and security of the entire trans-Atlantic alliance. ...........

so far, she said, Mr. Putin has refused to talk to Mr. Zelensky.

........ A partial settlement that allows Russia to renew its offensive later is not sustainable, she said. “I only see a solution as a military victory that could end this once and for all, and also punishing the aggressor for what he has done.” Otherwise, she said, “we go back to where we started — you will have a pause of one year, two years, and then everything will continue.” ......... That has been the mistake of the West with Mr. Putin for years now, she said, citing the Georgian war in 2008, the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas that has been ongoing since 2015. .......... Mr. Zelensky “is in a very difficult position.” On one hand, “you’re the leader of the country, and you see the suffering of your people, you want this to stop.” But on the other, “you have public opinion saying that Ukraine is winning this war, and we shouldn’t give any territory to Russia.” .......... Finding the balance will be hard, she said, but it is up to Mr. Zelensky to find it. “It is up to Ukraine to decide where their limits are,” no one else, she said. .......... It is important that the European Union and NATO keep the door open to Ukraine, she said, given the already remarkable sacrifices it has made to protect Western values and interests. The Ukrainians have earned the right to prove that they can qualify, she said, and the West “should not be intimidated by anything Russia is saying or threatening.” .........

“Europe is not a geography — it’s a set of values and principles.”





We Must Make Sure Russia Finishes This War in a Worse Position Than Before Foreign Secretary Liz Truss of Britain said that her country would seek “to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine.” ....... Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, declared that “we want Ukraine to win this war.” ........ A peace that for the second time since 2014 rewards a Russian invasion with Ukrainian territory would have severe consequences for Ukraine’s future, Western security and credibility, and the norms of sovereignty and nonintervention that underpin the international order. ......... At a minimum, Western policy should ensure that Russia gains no new Ukrainian territory and continues to face severe sanctions until it fundamentally changes its policy toward Ukraine. ...... Further sanctions would be inconvenient for Europe — but disastrous for Russia. The West must prevail in this contest of resolve. ...... unambiguously committing to both the restoration of Ukraine’s territory and the reconstruction of its war-torn economy. ........ Fear of Russian escalation should not constrain the West from taking these steps. Russia’s reckless nuclear talk is designed to play on the West’s fears. But Russia’s saber-rattling reflects its dearth of other options. Since the war has exposed Russia’s weakness in other domains — conventional military force, informational warfare, cyberpower and economic resilience —

weapons of mass destruction are now its only claim to geopolitical greatness

. ........... The argument that “Russia will use nuclear weapons unless it is allowed to gain from the war” does not deter Ukraine from fighting. It should not deter the West from giving it the means to do so.


‘S.N.L.’ Takes on the Trial of Johnny Depp and Amber Heard In an episode hosted by Selena Gomez, “Saturday Night Live” tried to distract itself from a dire news week with a celebrity lawsuit and whoopee cushions. ......... After rattling off other headlines — “political fallout from the recent Jan. 6 subpoenas, updates on the Russian helicopter taken down by Ukraine, plus a nationwide shortage of baby formula” — McKinnon explained to viewers that her network would instead be covering the celebrity trial. ........ “On one hand, I believe Mr. Depp’s story. But on the other hand, your constant little smirk lets me know that this is not the first woman you’ve made so mad that she pooped in your bed.” ......... Is it me or does every story this week sound like the opening voice-over in a “Mad Max” movie? The year is 2022. A virus rages across the planet. Digital money has collapsed. Infants have nothing to eat. Women are forced to breed. Men are ready to die for gasoline. And we suffer under the leadership of the one known only as Joe.......... Cryptocurrency crashed this week with Bitcoin losing nearly half its value. And now it has to legally change its name to Bit O’ Coin. In fact, the entire crypto market has lost over $1 trillion, but you can make that money back fast as long as you’ve been hoarding baby formula.

A Ruling Family on the Run as Sri Lanka Plunges Into Economic Ruin Once empowered by triumphant ethnic nationalism after a brutal civil war, the Rajapaksa dynasty has been undone by what its own allies call incompetence and denial........ The president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and his brother Mahinda, the prime minister, had come on board with the measure after a year of discussion. But another member of the family — Basil, the finance minister, one of five Rajapaksas in the cabinet — had other ideas. ........... Sri Lanka lies in economic ruin, with basic food items scarce, hospitals out of medicine and lines for fuel stretching for blocks as the country’s foreign reserves all but run out. The wave of anger now gripping the country is as much about the family dynasty ruling Sri Lanka as it is about the economic disaster. Once empowered by a triumphant Buddhist Sinhalese nationalism after a brutal civil war, the Rajapaksas have been undone by what their own allies call incompetence and denial. ........... with most of the family in hiding at a military base and only the president clinging to power ........... “Basil was not willing to accept the fact that this financial crisis will lead to an economic crisis, and unless we are going to solve it, that will lead to a political crisis” ........... “He controlled everything,” Mr. Gammanpila added, a sentiment repeated by other officials and diplomats, “and he knew nothing.” ........ Over a period of decades, the small island nation of 22 million people had built a bloated state sector, robust social welfare programs that exceeded the country’s means, a large military and an elaborate series of postwar construction projects. As economic growth slowed, it kept borrowing to pay. ............. Then came a disastrous ban on chemical fertilizers, as the Rajapaksa government pushed organic farming at a time when climate change was already threatening harvests and food security. ........ As it became clearer that the government needed help from financial bodies like the International Monetary Fund, the Rajapaksas dragged their feet. Used to easy loans from allies like China, they were daunted by the strict expectations that come with such packages ........... Many have described the root of the crisis as the impunity that the political and military elite enjoyed after a civil war rife with accusations of crimes against Sri Lanka’s minority Tamils. The war’s end initiated a majoritarian triumphalism, exploited by the Rajapaksas, that concealed the deeper economic troubles and bypassed reconciliation. ............ the Rajapaksas, buoyed by war and ethnic nationalism, felt an entitlement that was all the more glaring in the face of their weak governance. .......... Mahinda Rajapaksa’s supporters, bused to his residence, walked out and attacked peaceful protesters who had camped there for weeks through heat and monsoon downpours. .......... Mr. Godahewa, whose home was also burned down, said he remained at the president’s residence for much of the night as anarchy took hold. At Temple Trees, the old colonial compound where the prime minister lives, protesters broke the gates and forced their way in. ......... the military had calculated its own interests, and that the economic crisis was too widespread, also affecting the families of those in the military, for officers to blindly support the president despite the public anger.

There Are Two Endgames in Ukraine. Both Carry Big Risks. The significant date of May 9, the celebration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Hitler’s Germany, came and went with no change of Russian strategy. .......... More of the same, then, seems to be the Russian plan — meaning a continuation of the grinding war in Ukraine’s south and east, with the goal of regime change essentially abandoned in favor of the goal of holding territory that might eventually be integrated into the Russian Federation. .......... The risk that a proxy war would encourage Moscow to climb the ladder toward a larger conflict has been manifest in the constant saber-rattling on Russian state TV — but not, thus far, in the actual choices of the Kremlin. Putin obviously doesn’t like our armaments flowing into Ukraine, but he appears willing to fight the war on these terms rather than gambling at more existential stakes. ......... Two scenarios loom for the next six months of war. In the first, Russia and Ukraine trade territory in small increments, and the war gradually cools into a “frozen conflict” in a style familiar from other wars in Russia’s near abroad. .......... And already, the pro-Ukraine united front in the United States is fracturing a little over the sheer scale of what we’re sending. So it’s not clear that either the Biden administration or the Zelensky government would be wise to invest in a long-term strategy for a frozen conflict that requires sustained bipartisan support — and perhaps soon enough the backing of a Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis administration. ........ the stalemate breaks in Ukraine’s favor. This is the future that the Ukrainian military claims is within reach — where with sufficient military aid and hardware they are able to turn their modest counteroffensives into major ones and push the Russians back not just to prewar lines but potentially out of Ukrainian territory entirely........... Clearly, this is the future America should want — except for the extremely important caveat that it’s also the future where Russian nuclear escalation suddenly becomes much more likely than it is right now. ........... We know that Russian military doctrine envisions using tactical nuclear weapons defensively, to turn the tide in a losing war. We should assume that Putin and his circle regard total defeat in Ukraine as a regime-threatening scenario. Combine those realities with a world where the Russians are suddenly being routed, their territorial gains evaporating, and you have the most nuclear-shadowed military situation since our naval blockade of Cuba in 1962. .......... what our posture should be in the event that rapid Ukrainian advances are met with a Russian tactical nuclear strike. ........ since we are arming the Ukrainians on a scale that seems intended to make a counteroffensive possible, I sincerely hope a version of the Colby-Heinrichs back-and-forth is happening at the highest reaches of our government — before an issue that matters now on academic panels becomes the most important question in the world.

The MAGA Formula Is Getting Darker and Darker The chilling amalgam of Christian nationalism, white replacement theory and conspiratorial zeal — from QAnon to the “stolen” 2020 election — has attracted a substantial constituency in the United States, thanks in large part to the efforts of Donald Trump and his advisers. By some estimates, adherents of these overlapping movements make up

as much as a quarter or even a third of the electorate

. Whatever the scale, they are determined to restore what they see as the original racial and religious foundation of America. .......... “Donald Trump wove them together and brought them out into the open. Indeed, the MAGA formula — the stoking of anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment while making nativist appeals to the Christian right — could accurately be described as a white Christian nationalist strategy from the beginning.” ......... “There is definitely a wing of the Christian nationalist movement that overlaps with the great replacement theory and demographic paranoia in general.” ........... Christian nationalism is making significant inroads among some Latino communities, for example, and there the argument is not that a preferred racial group is being replaced but that a preferred religious and cultural value system (with supposed economic implications) is under threat.” ........... a reactionary, authoritarian ideology that centers its grievances on a narrative of lost national greatness and believes in the indispensability of the “right” religion in recovering that lost greatness. This mind-set always involves a narrative of unjust persecution at the hands of alien or “un-American” groups. The specific targets may shift. Some focus their fears on the “homosexual agenda”; others target Americans of color or nonwhite immigrant groups; still others identify the menace with religious minorities such as Muslims, Jews and secular “elites” or perceived threats against gender hierarchy and sexual order. And of course, many take an all-of-the-above approach. ........... We can see how the great replacement theory overlaps with Christian nationalism. Both view some specific population as “real” Americans, whether that is defined explicitly as white Christians or in the more vague and coded language of “real” or “native born” or “legacy” Americans. And both frame demographic change as threats to both that population and to the country’s essential character. Finally, although not all flavors of Christian nationalism include a conspiratorial element, some versions share with replacement theory an imagined cabal of nefarious elites — often Jews, communists/socialists or globalists — who are intentionally promoting racial and/or religious diversity in order to diminish white Christian power. ........... “white Christian nationalism” and the other “colorblind Judeo-Christian nationalism.” ......... “explicitly fuses whiteness, Christianity and Americanness,” leading to the conclusion that “white Christians alone embody the values on which a healthy democracy rests and, as such, white Christians alone are suited to hold positions of social influence and political power.” ............

Why have Christian nationalism and replacement theory moved so quickly to center stage?

......... it was “twin shocks to the system” delivered during the first two decades of this century: “the election and re-election of our first Black president and the sea change of no longer being a majority-white Christian nation.” ........... White Christians went from 54 percent to 47 percent in that period, down to 44 percent today. This set the stage for Trump and the emergence of full-throated white Christian nationalism.

Trump exchanged the dog whistle for the megaphone.

....... 29 percent believe that immigrants are invading our country; among Republicans, it’s 60 percent; among Democrats, 11 percent; among QAnon believers, 65 percent; among white evangelicals, 50 percent; and among white noncollege voters, as pollsters put it, 43 percent. .......... White Americans who agree that “God has granted America a special role in human history” (a softer measure of Christian nationalism) are more than twice as likely as those who disagree with that statement to believe that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country” (28 percent vs. 11 percent). And white Americans who agree that “God intended America to be a promised land for European Christians” (a harder measure of Christian nationalism) are four times as likely as those who disagree with that statement to believe that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country” (43 percent vs. 10 percent). And white Americans who believe that “Immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic values” are more than five times as likely as those who disagree with that statement to believe that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country” (45 percent vs. 8 percent). ........... “Religious ideologies like Christian nationalism should be associated with support for violence, conditional on several individual characteristics that can be inflamed by elite cues.” Those characteristics are “perceived victimhood, reinforcing racial and religious identities and support for conspiratorial information sources.” ......... “It’s a toxic blend of extremist orientations, such as Christian nationalism, racism, some expressions of populism and conspiracism, for example, that edges individuals closer to supporting violence.” ............

conspiracy-minded individuals, like the accused Buffalo shooter, can find connections between anything

.......... conspiracy theories, of which great replacement theory is an example, are oftentimes undergirded by antisocial personality traits, such as the dark triad (narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy) and a predisposition toward conflict. If you combine all of these dispositions and traits and dial them up to 10, that’s when you’re most likely to find support for violence, which is correlated with (but not determinative of) behavioral violence. ........ “between 25 to 32 percent of white Americans support some Christian nationalist ideas. .......... of “the major predictors of support for violence — perceived victimhood, attachment to one’s whiteness, racial animus toward Blacks, support for authoritarianism, support for populism and past or current military service — all, save for military service, are present in the accused Buffalo shooter’s written statement.” ........... 6 percent of whites, 11.5 percent of white evangelicals and 17.7 percent of white weekly churchgoers fall into the joint top quartile of justification of violence, Christian nationalist beliefs, perceived victimhood, white identity and support for QAnon.

That would represent millions of individuals. It also represents a far greater share of the white American population than surveys find when testing Muslim American support for terrorism.

.............. Christian nationalism, white replacement theory and conspiracy preoccupation overlap, although each has unique characteristics. ........ Belief in replacement theory is much higher among OANN/Newsmax viewers (45 percent) and Fox News viewers (31 percent) than it is among CNN (13 percent) or MSNBC viewers (11 percent). ..........

They are also very concerned with low birthrates

.......... I can only report that without an overhaul of the law and the allocation of resources, millions of illegal immigrants will continue flooding to this great land from around the world. Many of them have no marketable skills. They are illiterate and unhealthy. Some are violent criminals. Their numbers will soon overwhelm the culture as we have known it, and it could bankrupt the nation. America has been a wonderfully generous and caring country since its founding. That is our Christian nature. But in this instance, we have met a worldwide wave of poverty that will take us down if we don’t deal with it. And it won’t take long for the inevitable consequences to happen. ................ Christian nationalism’s numeric decline and cultural resurgence are, ironically, directly connected.


With or Without Trump, the MAGA Movement Is the Future of the Republican Party The fissures in the Democratic Party are on display for all to see, since it is the party in power, but the divisions in the Republican Party and the conservative movement are deeper, wider and far more threatening. ........ In 2011, the Department of Education declared that Title IX required universities to investigate charges of sexual harassment with few due-process protections for the accused — to the dismay of many conservatives (and plenty of liberals). In 2012, the Department of Health and Human Services mandated that Obamacare cover the costs of contraception and abortifacients. In 2016, the Department of Education advised schools to allow transgender students to use the bathroom of their choice. .......... Kennedy’s “decision nullified bans on gay marriage in 31 states. Social conservatives were apoplectic.” ............. “At the top of society,” Continetti writes, “a self-perpetuating elite lived inside a bubble of affluent neighborhoods and postal codes Murray called ‘Super-Zips,’ while mass suffering played out below. Most Americans, Murray pointed out, did not enjoy the benefits of intact families, vibrant communities and church membership.” Addiction levels, Continetti continued, were staggering. “Opioid and heroin abuse caused a spike in deaths, in some years killing as many Americans as died in Vietnam.” ........... “All this happened under the noses of most conservative and Republican elites. They lived in the wealthy Virginia and Maryland suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C. They enjoyed life in the Super-Zips,” Continetti writes. The elite of the right “were separated from growing numbers of their own party by background, education, income and lifestyle.” ......... The stage was set for a political explosion, and it came in the form of Donald Trump. ..... George Will said that he deserved to lose 50 states. Charles Krauthammer called him a “rodeo clown.” ......... “Not one iota of Trump was politically correct. He played by no rules of civility. He genuflected to no one. He despised the media with the same intensity as the conservative grass roots.” ........... Here’s what’s the terrifying thing on the right that can be a career- and reputation-ending allegation: “You’re weak. You’re a coward.” So the transformation,

this flipping upside down of morality, turning bullying into strength, turning restraint into vice

, all of that, what has then happened is it enables the Trumpists and the Trumpist world. They’re wielding this sword that is very sharp culturally in red spaces, this accusation of weakness and cowardice, as a weapon to keep people in line, because they’ve defined support for this movement as evidence of your strength. .............. But for conservatives — I mean those who champion some version of the difficult balance of traditionalism in the moral arena, market mechanisms for addressing our economic challenges, and American strength in a dangerous world — all bound by a limited-government constitutionalism — this sorry year’s lessons have one overarching implication: We can no longer treat the G.O.P. simply as our own. ......... faults the conservative movement for clinging to “an agenda almost frozen in amber, locking in place a 1980s-style policy program even as the nation changed around us.” ........... “Trump blew it all up,” Levin wrote. “It’s not that he had a rival policy prescription; his campaign largely amounts to a frantic venting of frustrations punctuated by demagogic chest-thumping. But his approach clearly appealed to a significant portion of Republican voters.” .......... Trump did have one crystal-clear policy objective: to drastically reduce immigration, legal and illegal. ........... Without the assent of Congress, President Trump has remade almost every major facet of America’s immigration system over the past three-plus years, slashing levels of legal and illegal arrivals; refugees and asylum seekers; Muslim and Christian migrants. He has sought to strip citizenship from naturalized Americans and subject “dreamers” raised in this country to deportation. He tried to deter illegal border crossings by sundering families, thereby traumatizing migrant teens, tweens and toddlers. ............. Mr. Trump has largely succeeded in delivering on the anti-immigration message that drove his 2016 victory and continues to animate much of his base. Only a small fraction of his border wall has been built, and Mexico has paid for none of it, but the thrust of his nativist vision has taken root in hundreds of rule changes and policy shifts that have slammed shut America’s doors. ............ Every so often the right has embraced a demagogic leader who pulls it toward the political fringe. From Tom Watson to Henry Ford, Father Coughlin to Charles Lindbergh, Joseph McCarthy to George Wallace, Ross Perot to Pat Buchanan, Ron Paul to Donald Trump, these tribunes of discontent have succumbed to conspiracy theories, racism and anti-Semitism. They have flirted with violence. They have played footsie with autocracy. .............. the substantial intellectual infrastructure that has buoyed the Trumpist right, its willingness to rupture moral codes and to discard traditional norms — an infrastructure that includes the Claremont Institute, Hillsdale College, First Things magazine and the American Mind website. ............ Social institutions dependent upon the old morality have become intellectually indefensible. In terms of contemporary social and political thought, it is the good understood as the old that is no longer defensible, and its political defense has therefore become untenable. This alone makes the defense of reasonable conservatism — and constitutionalism itself — something akin to the defense of a dream that masquerades itself as reality in the minds of its votaries. ............ Progressives understand that culture war means discrediting their opponents and weakening or destroying their institutions. Conservatives should approach the culture war with a similar realism. Civility and decency are secondary values. They regulate compliance with an established order and orthodoxy. ................ Our norms are now hopelessly corrupt and need to be destroyed. It has been like this for a while — and the MAGA voters knew it, while most of the policy wonks and magazine scribblers did not … and still don’t. In almost every case, the political practices, institutions, and even rhetoric governing the United States have become hostile to both

liberty and virtue

. .............. The current tensions and arguments on the right aren’t anything new — there’s been a multi-front struggle within conservatism as long as modern conservatism has existed. What’s new is that the populist tendency has usually been subordinate to the classic liberal element, and now, with the advent of Trump, populism has the upper hand. ............ the right has rejected the lazy business-oriented consensus on immigration and China that held sway for too long. We won’t see a so-called comprehensive immigration reform again for a long time — and good riddance. ............ “any impetus to pursue entitlement reform has completely disappeared.” ............ the unanimous belief in the effectiveness and political gain to be made by the current Republican assault on “woke” corporations supporting transgender rights and on corporations requiring employees to undergo diversity training using principles of “critical race theory” — an assault led by Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida. .............. Yet Trump earned neither a majority of votes overall nor majorities in the key primary states of New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. He benefited from divisions and flaws among his many rivals as well as his canny political instincts that allowed him to seize on the issue of immigration and connect it to worries over international terrorism. .......... Trump became president because he had the good fortune of running against the second-most-unpopular general election candidate in the history of the Gallup poll (Trump is number one). ............. opposition to illegal immigration, resistance to international trade, a general dislike of permanent alliances and overseas intervention, he also combined these modifications with the Reaganite agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, increased defense spending, conservative judicial appointments and support for Israel. ............

Trump has “a contempt for the ‘niceties of liberal democracy’ and an admiration for nationalist strongmen who use state power to diminish the cultural power of the progressive left,”

Continetti added that “Trump’s inability to accept defeat was behind his ‘Stop the Steal’ movement that, in a horrific illustration of what happens when one abandons the ‘niceties of liberal democracy,’ culminated in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.” ............ whether the Republican Party had become the party of Patrick J. Buchanan, the fire-breathing populist conservative who ran unsuccessfully for president in 1992. .......... “If it indeed became anti-immigrant, anti-trade and America First in foreign policy, it would indeed mirror Pat Buchanan’s insurgency. But I think the party is still fighting over these policies. The response of party leaders to Ukraine shows that the older Republican internationalist wing of the party is still alive and strong.” .......... Trump has absolutely ruined the discourse among conservative intellectuals, elites, think tankers, pundits, etc. We were all basically on the same side, then Trump won the nomination, and it seemed like everybody turned on everybody, depending on the shades or nuances of your views.” .............. Trump’s flagrantly aberrant moral compass ............ As the Republican Party evolves from a party focused on individual liberty and limits on government power to a party that more fully embraces government control of the economy and morality, it is reversing many of its previous stances on free speech in public universities, in public education, and in private corporations. ............ The primal forces unleashed by Trump have not lost momentum. Whoever ends up as the Republican Party nominee in 2024 — whether it is Trump himself or one of the other contenders — will be under pressure to continue the abandonment of principle. ....... Whether Trumpism is more powerful with Trump or without him is still an open question, but the MAGA movement shows no real sign of abating.


Growing evidence of a military disaster on the Donets pierces a pro-Russian bubble. The destruction wreaked on a Russian battalion as it tried to cross a river in northeastern Ukraine last week is emerging as among the deadliest engagements of the war, with estimates based on publicly available evidence now suggesting that well over 400 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded. ...... as the scale of what happened comes into sharper focus, the disaster appears to be breaking through the Kremlin’s tightly controlled information bubble. ....... “The commentary by these widely read milbloggers may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders” ........ On May 11, the Russian command reportedly sent about 550 troops of the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st Combined Arms Army to cross the Donets River at Bilohorivka, in the eastern Luhansk region, in a bid to encircle Ukrainian forces near Rubizhne. ....... Satellite images reveal that Ukrainian artillery destroyed several Russian pontoon bridges and laid waste to a tight concentration of Russian troops and equipment around the river. .......

as many as 485 Russian soldiers killed or wounded and more than 80 pieces of equipment destroyed.

......... some Russian bloggers did not appear to hold back in their criticism of what they said was incompetent leadership. “I’ve been keeping quiet for a long time,” Yuri Podolyaka, a war blogger with 2.1 million followers on Telegram, said in a video posted on Friday, saying that he had avoided criticizing the Russian military until now. ......... “The last straw that overwhelmed my patience was the events around Bilohorivka, where due to stupidity — I emphasize, because of the stupidity of the Russian command — at least one battalion tactical group was burned, possibly two.” ......... the Russian Army was short of functional unmanned drones, night-vision equipment and other kit “that is catastrophically lacking on the front.” ........ “But when the same problems go on for three months, and nothing seems to be changing, then I personally and in fact millions of citizens of the Russian Federation start to have questions for these leaders of the military operation.” ......... the fact that commanders left so much of their force exposed amounted to “not idiocy, but direct sabotage.” ........ Russia’s eastern offensive was moving slowly not just because of a lack of surveillance drones but also “these generals” and their tactics. ....... “Until we get the last name of the military genius who laid down a B.T.G. by the river and he answers for it publicly, we won’t have had any military reforms” ......... the attempted crossing demonstrated a stunning lack of tactical sense. ........ They have speculated that Russian commanders, desperate to make progress, rushed the operation. Some also suggested that it was a reflection of disorder in the Russian ranks. ......... If the estimates that hundreds of soldiers were killed or injured prove accurate, it would be one of the deadliest known engagements of the war. ...... There were more than 500 sailors aboard the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva when it was struck by a Ukrainian missile in April. The Kremlin at first insisted that all the sailors were rescued, later saying one was killed. But even as the families of missing sailors have publicly demanded answers, the Kremlin has largely kept up an official silence on the fate of the crew, part of a larger campaign to suppress bad news.




Finland and Sweden Move Toward NATO Membership. But What About Ukraine? Why not allow Ukraine — the flawed, corrupt but also heroic democracy at the heart of the current conflict — to join as well, enshrining the West’s commitment to its security? ....... Moscow would take “retaliatory steps,” including a “military-technical” response, which many experts interpreted as a threat to deploy tactical nuclear weapons near the Russian-Finnish border. ....... The two Nordic states are model democracies and modern militaries that the United States and other NATO nations regularly conduct exercises with, working together to track Russian subs, protect undersea communications cables and run air patrols across the Baltic Sea. ........ “We have stayed out of NATO for 30 years — we could have joined in the early ’90s,” Mikko Hautala, the Finnish ambassador to the United States, said on Thursday as he was walking the halls of the U.S. Senate, drumming up support for his country’s sudden change of course. Trying to avoid provoking Mr. Putin, he said, “hasn’t changed Russia’s actions at all.” ........ while it altered its Constitution three years ago to make NATO membership a national objective, it has been considered too full of corruption and too devoid of democratic institutions to make membership likely for years, if not decades, to come. ........ In late March, a month after the Russian invasion and a point when there still seemed some prospect of a diplomatic solution, he made clear that if it would bring about a permanent end to the war, he was prepared to declare Ukraine a “neutral” state. ........ Mr. Biden declined to send MIG fighters to Ukraine that could be used to bomb Moscow. He rejected a no-fly zone over Ukraine because of the risk that American pilots could get into dogfights with Russian pilots. ......... George F. Kennan, the architect of the post-World War II “containment” strategy to isolate the Soviet Union, called the expansion “the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era.” ........ many believe Mr. Putin will lean on Hungary and its prime minister, Viktor Orban, to reject the applications. ....... Ukraine had forced the Finns to think differently about their security. ...... “You caused this,” Mr. Niinisto said of Mr. Putin. “Look at the mirror.”

Vladimir Putin, Family Man As Western nations place sanctions on people close to the Russian leader, including family members, the strict secrecy surrounding his private life is being punctured....... It was 2008, and the Russian president, then 56 and eight years into his tightening grip on power, stood for a news conference in Sardinia’s lavish Villa Certosa. At his side was his closest ally in Western Europe, Silvio Berlusconi, the media mogul and Italian prime minister of legendarily hedonist appetites with whom he shared a taste for raunchy jokes, over-the-top furnishings and vast wealth. ........ the facade is beginning to crumble, shedding new light on the Russian leader’s private life. ........ he had fallen for Ms. Kabaeva, a famously flexible Olympic gold medalist in rhythmic gymnastics, who, at 24, was about the age of his daughters and had become a public face of his political party. ....... “I have always reacted negatively to those who, with their snotty noses and erotic fantasies, meddle in other people’s lives,” Mr. Putin said, denying the report. Mr. Berlusconi mimed shooting Ms. Melikova with an imaginary machine gun as Mr. Putin, who by then had been accused of murdering several journalists, nodded and smiled. Days later, Moskovsky Korrespondent halted operations for “financial reasons.” ........ A former K.G.B. operative steeped in the agency’s ways of subterfuge, disinformation and the Janus-like ability to present different selves depending on the situation, he has shrouded his personal life in secrecy and wrapped it in rumor. ........ He has two officially recognized daughters from his first marriage, but according to independent Russian news outlets and unverified international news reports, he may have four more children with two other women. Yet even his acknowledged daughters, now approaching middle age, are so hidden as to be unrecognizable on a Moscow street. His former wife, whom some biographers believe he married to improve his chances of entering the bachelor-resistant K.G.B., essentially vanished from view even before they divorced. ......... In the villa-dotted Russian enclaves of Switzerland, a petition began circulating in March demanding the repatriation of his supposed paramour, Ms. Kabaeva, angrily comparing her with Hitler’s mistress, Eva Braun. In Lugano, locals whisper about the green glass building Ms. Kabaeva lived in overlooking the lake and speak with confidence about the hospital where her rumored children were born and the schools they attended. But they have not seen her........ or by supporters to compound the image of Mr. Putin’s wealth, virility and mysteriousness. Or maybe they are simply real ........ was at once both obsessively clandestine and an exhibitionist who fed off the Western depiction of him as a supervillain. ........ The great-granddaughter of Nikita Khrushchev, Ms. Khrushcheva said that Mr. Putin had a byzantine worldview typical of the Kremlin, and like Stalin, he embraced and perpetuated mythology peppered with truth. “You create misinformation,” she said. “You create an atmosphere of something that everybody is guessing and everybody is discussing and everything is secret.” ........ Members of Mr. Putin’s family circle are beneficiaries of a kleptocratic system that Mr. Putin rules over like a mafia don, with oligarch lieutenants paying him tribute in the form of wealth, lucrative jobs or luxurious villas lavished on his family and those in the potential orbit of his affection. ........ and that his invisible and untouchable private world could be seen and reached by the West. ......... “Overall, sanctions that are not approved by the U.N. Security Council are bad, most importantly, they are useless,” said Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, when asked for comment on the Western sanctions against Mr. Putin’s family members. “Sanctions against families, relatives, acquaintances and journalists are stupid.” Asked whether the Kremlin believed sanctions against Ms. Kabaeva and her relatives were a personal affront against Mr. Putin, Mr. Peskov added, “This is just an absurd decision!” ......... Maria’s parents did not attend her Dutch wedding party. Some Russians did, however, including fit men who watched from the bar as a relative of the bride — a young woman who sang a touching, traditional Russian song — danced emphatically to tango music. ........ in 2010, a Russian news outlet, New Times, reported that Jorrit, then an official at a Russian consultancy firm, received a beating from the bodyguards of Matvey Urin, a top Russian banker who did not know who he was dealing with, after a road rage episode in Moscow. Mr. Urin promptly lost licenses to operate banks and the bodyguards ended up in jail. Russian gossip reporters speculated that the Dutchman was Mr. Putin’s son-in-law, though Jorrit always denied it. ......... From the beginning, Mr. Putin’s personal story seemed filled with the stuff of myth making. He used an official biography — published in 2001, when he first took power as an apparent next-generation democrat — to burnish his image as a tough but heroic family man. In it, he tells the story of personally saving the family, while naked, when a faulty sauna burned down the family dacha. ......... Mr. Putin let slip in a 2011 Russian television interview that Katerina majored in Oriental studies at St. Petersburg University. But as she stepped gingerly into view in 2015, it was as the author of a math textbook and a half-dozen scientific papers, including one on space travel and how the body reacts to zero gravity. Her co-author, the rector of Moscow State University, Viktor Sadovnichy, did not return a request for comment. ......... And by 2014, she helped oversee the $1.7 billion expansion of Moscow State University, working as a liaison to the business sector with the title of vice rector. ......... As she grew professionally, so did her husband’s wealth. Kirill Shamalov acquired from Mr. Timchenko, the Putin-connected oligarch and apparent family fixer, a roughly $3 billion stake in Russia’s leading oil and petrochemical company and became one of its top shareholders. The couple also acquired from Mr. Timchenko, for an undisclosed price, a seaside villa in Biarritz, France. (In March, Russian activists broke into that villa and tried to make it available to Ukrainian refugees.) ......... Elizaveta Vladimirovna Krivonogikh, whose patronymic means she is the daughter of a Vladimir, is a 19-year-old who played up her possible connection to Mr. Putin to gain tens of thousands of followers on her Instagram account ......... In interviews, Luiza, as she is known, admitted that she looked a lot like Mr. Putin and said that if the president stood before her, she would ask him, “Why?” But the war brought angry attention and her account suddenly disappeared. ........ In 2021, the release of the Pandora Papers — millions of leaked documents from offshore financial firms — and an earlier investigation by Proekt, which was subsequently banned in Russia, showed that Svetlana’s worth was estimated to be around 100 million euros, or about $105 million, and included a $3.75 million Monaco apartment. ......... On April 22, Mr. Putin’s supposedly current mistress — and by some accounts, his new wife, Ms. Kabaeva — appeared in Moscow at her annual Alina Festival, a patriotic gymnastics event. An advisory member of the National Media Group, controlled by the powerful oligarch Yuri Kovalchuk, she rallied support for the invasion of Ukraine in front of the “Z” signs that are symbols of Mr. Putin’s war.

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

This Time The Russian Transition Should Be Done Right

It was Boris Yeltsin who toppled the Soviet Union, the man with a lot of bravado but no plan. It was also Boris Yeltsin who gave Russia Putin. Russia never had a chance. The collapse was too much. The ordinary Russians never got to make good on the promise. The Soviet Communist Party went away but the KGB took over. There was the collapse, but no buildup.

Russia is and will be a major world power no matter which way you look at it. And to think Russia and China had similar size economies only 30 years ago.

When Putin loses his war in Ukraine, and the Russian people take to the streets to topple the Putin regime, Russia should embrace democracy anew. Russia should be a bigger version of Ukraine.

The democracy in Russia will not be a photocopy of anything anywhere else. No two democracies are alike. Culture and history come into play. Events shape the political process.

I would hope Russia would install robust federalism. It is a large country with many nationalities.

I hope there is a major redistribution of wealth. The Soviet Union collapsed, and what was owned by the state was handed over to key individuals.

It is very important a new Russia works with the US to get rid of more than 90% of the world's nuclear weapons before 2030. That is unfinished business from the Cold War era.

I do think it is healthy for a country to stand up to the US and the West. Imagine a US where there is a Republican Party but no Democratic Party. That would be an unbalance.

A fully democratic, federal Russia will have a sphere of influence. Its very size makes that a given. But that Russia will enhance its influence by respecting the sovereignty of its neighbors.

I hope a democratic Russia puts the country on a path to double digit growth rates. Russia has strong defense, cyber, education, and space industries. It has a lot of natural resources. It can hope to diversify.

And I think it will be a good thing if that Russia is a critique of US policy and actions in the global arena. That would be a welcome counterbalance to have.

But this war in Ukraine is insane.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Botched



When North Korea had already held talks with the Chinese president and had talked of peninsular denuclearization and a possible Korean unification with a major gesture of time zone synchronization, those were positive signs. Pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal was not good timing, to say the least. The US sounded like it wanted a deal with North Korea that it had with Iran. If that is your tune to sing, you don't walk out of the Iran nuclear deal. That was a clear signal to North Korea even if they agreed to a deal that the US wanted, the US had no intention of honoring it. Trump also managed to talk about Libya and Gaddafi in the meantime. That was like saying to Kim, sign the deal that we will not honor, and, by the way, we want you killed out in the streets.

The first order of business was a path to denuclearization. Then massive engagement leading to a Korean unification. The North Korean regime as is would not have stayed in its current shape. West Germany did not become East Germany. And there has not been a one state two systems in Germany.

In the mean time the US has managed to lose all of its allies in Europe on the Iran nuclear deal. And that was not the first strike. The Paris Climate Accord, and trade were already major issues. Japan kept the Trans Pacific Partnership, that Trump would now like to join, he says. To that the TPP nations have said, welcome, but there is nothing to negotiate anymore. Join as is.

And India thought America, Europe, India, Japan and Australia are a thing. That was before Trump declared his intentions for a trade war with China, a recipe for a global Great Depression. India's Modi has had to spend two full days in informal talks with the Chinese president in response, and another full day with the Russian president.

Just like the climate accord and the Iran deal can go on with or without the US, the two Koreas should take steps towards unification.

Trump’s Relationship With North Korea Just Got More Dangerous: Some Republicans have praised Trump for his North Korea diplomacy, and there’s been talk about him winning a Nobel Peace Prize. That was always ludicrous, and his North Korea policy is in fact a fine example of ineptitude. .......... Trump’s jingoistic rhetoric didn’t particularly intimidate North Korea, but it terrified South Korea, which feared it would be collateral damage in a new Korean War. So President Moon shrewdly used the Olympics to undertake a careful peace mission to bring the U.S. and North Korea together, flattering each side to make this happen (Moon is a world-class Trump flatterer, and other leaders around the world have noted his success). This was commendable on Moon’s part; he’s the one who genuinely did have a shot at the peace prize. ........ Yet John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, spoke up in ways calculated to unnerve the North Koreans, by talking about the Libya model. When you cite as a model a country whose leader then ended up being executed by his own people, that’s not usually persuasive to another dictator. ....... North Korean leaders themselves responded to Bolton’s comments with harsh, over-the-top rhetoric, including the comment about Pence. This was a major miscalculation on their part, escalating the ineptitude and helping to kill the summit. ......... While the North Koreans didn’t get the summit they wanted with Trump, they have managed the process quite well. They used the rush of diplomacy to rebuild ties with Beijing and start discussions about economic integration with South Korea, and to moderate their international image. They’ve also created something of a wedge between Washington and Seoul, as was apparent in the response to Trump’s cancellation by a South Korean government spokesman: “We are attempting to make sense of what, precisely, President Trump means.”

Trump’s foolish conviction on North Korea: In the end what we had was the Art of the Schlemiel. It’s a Yiddish word — a New Yorkism — which President Trump may know. It means a foolish person, in this case a president who accepts the North Korean leader’s invitation to a summit meeting with no preparation but a touching belief in his own negotiating brilliance. That summit is now off. ......... The president announced he would be a no-show at next month’s planned meeting after North Korea showed “tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement.” Trump was referring to recent comments by North Korean officials. The latest called Vice President Pence “ignorant and stupid.” Pence is neither, but it was not smart of him to advance Libya as the model for North Korea’s nuclear disarmament. Not only did Libya essentially capitulate to Western demands, but its leader, Moammar Gaddafi, lost both his regime and his life. ......... Trump’s narcissism and his lack of empathy are a hindrance in foreign affairs. He has to put himself in the shoes of his adversaries and that he cannot do. ......... he was wrong in the first place to plunge into a summit that had not been meticulously planned. Characteristically, his ego got the best of him and he trusted his instincts which he feels are never wrong. It is the conviction of a schlemiel.

North Korea nuclear test tunnels 'destroyed'

South Korean president says Trump cancelling Kim Jong Un summit is 'very regretful and disconcerting'



Twitter Critics Mercilessly Mock Trump For Canceling Summit With Kim
Donald Trump cancels Kim Jong-un summit, citing North Korea’s ‘tremendous anger’ and boasts of US’s ‘massive’ nukes
'Very Perplexed': International Confusion, Concern After Trump Cancels Summit: "Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of permanent peace are historic tasks that can neither be abandoned nor delayed," Yonhap quotes Moon as saying.......... Moon, who spoke to Kim Jong Un in a historic meeting in April, was in Washington earlier this week to meet with Trump and discuss strategy for the summit......... And other world leaders expressed confusion or alarm about Trump's decision. ........... British Prime Minister Theresa May said the U.K. is "disappointed" that the talks have been called off ........ On Tuesday, Trump warned that there was a "very substantial chance [the meeting] won't work out." North Korea had been signaling that it might call off the summit itself, objecting to military exercises in South Korea and comments from American politicians.



North Korea launches tirade against ‘stupid’ US officials: North Korea has launched a tirade against the “ignorant and stupid remarks” of US officials and threatened to walk away from a landmark summit with US President Donald Trump next month..........“Whether the US will meet us at a meeting room or encounter us at nuclear-to-nuclear showdown is entirely dependent upon the decision and behaviour of the United States,” said Choe Son Hui, a North Korean vice-foreign minister, on Thursday. ........ The comments followed continued references by US officials, in particular vice-president Mike Pence, to the “Libya model” for denuclearisation, which is increasingly being used by the White House as a euphemism for the overthrow and murder of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. ....... Libyan leader Muammer Gaddafi was toppled and murdered in 2011 by western-backed rebels — a fate that North Korean officials believe he could have avoided had he not abandoned his nuclear weapons programme years earlier. ....... the potentially historic meeting has been thrown into jeopardy in recent days amid a bitter backlash from Pyongyang over what it calls Washington’s “unilateral” demands. ....... At the crux of the issue lies a chasm in perception over what prompted the summit in the first place. .......... Mr Trump believes his “maximum pressure” strategy coerced Mr Kim to the negotiating table and the US can dictate terms as a result. ......... For its part, North Korea said it agreed to the meeting out of its own volition and should be treated as an equal nuclear power in negotiations. ........ Initially hailed as “gracious gesture” by Mr Trump, the dismantlement of the site has been criticised by experts, who say evidence about the extent of the regime’s nuclear programme will be lost in the process. 

North Korea says it has officially dismantled its nuclear test site

When Trump meets Kim, a whole lot could go wrong: Washington and Pyongyang are presenting different interpretations of what denuclearization means to the world (more on that later), and they clearly have conflicting expectations about how the mechanics would work...... Pyongyang is thought to have a number of deadly agents in its hands, including anthrax, cholera and the plague....... Kim and Trump's red lines may be unbridgeable. Although the North Korean dictator has been talking about peace treaties and a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, there is a strong likelihood that he never intended to follow through. As last week's "no unilateral denuclearization" announcement indicated, it defies common sense for the Kim regime to give up its nuclear weapons after decades of research, development and testing. North Korea has endured harsh sanctions, political isolation and financial deprivation; why would it destroy its functioning nuclear deterrent at the urging of the U.S. now? ...... The summit may be called off.

North Korea: U.S.' actions will determine if there is a summit or a "nuclear-to-nuclear showdown"

China’s backroom talks with North Korea thrust into spotlight: Trump blames Beijing for summit setbacks, but experts say Pyongyang is not a vassal state........ Analysts say Kim Jong Un could be playing the big powers off each other to North Korea’s advantage ...... China has always preferred to do diplomacy in quiet back rooms, far away from the public glare. ....... But against the backdrop of a similarly epoch-making diplomatic opening between the US and North Korea, Beijing’s behind-the-scenes role has been thrust into the limelight by US President Donald Trump.......... It is a position where China is profoundly uncomfortable. “One side is whispering, and the other is saying everything through a bullhorn,” joked one foreign diplomat. ........... China insists it backs peace talks between the US and North Korea, although it wants bilateral talks replaced by multilateral talks as soon as possible, giving Beijing a seat at the table.......... North Korea’s overture to the US of a freeze on nuclear testing earlier this year was not accompanied by a corresponding freeze on military exercises in the South. ........ China has always championed the idea of a “dual freeze” — of nuclear tests by the North and military manoeuvres by the South. ....... Kim Il Sung, Mr Kim’s grandfather, grew adept at playing the Soviet Union against China in the 1950s and 1960s, and now his grandson may be using the same tactics with China and the US.

The hypothetical reunification of Korea: ...... the transfers from West Germany to East Germany in 1989, calculating a cost at around €1.7trn in today's euros, around 62 per cent of West Germany's current GDP, or roughly 8 per cent of the European Union's nominal GDP ......... The Korean populations are closer in size, with around 26m North Korean citizens compared to South Korea's 51m, a near 2-to-1 ratio versus West and East Germany's split of around 4-to-1. So all else being equal, the lack of a need for serious population flows from south to north should at least partly aid unification. ........ Much of the industrial base in Germany that supported the war efforts during the 1940s were located in the former East Germany. Mercedes, BMW, VW, ThyssenKrupp, and Bosch, which are household names today, but all of them had major factories before May 1945 in support of Germany’s military operations. The industrial ‘culture’ has never disappeared in EG, even if it had faded somewhat under communist rule. ........ the severe lack of industrial infrastructure north of the Korean border will ultimately require heavier investment than Eastern Germany. For perspective on just how far behind North Korea's infamously isolated economy is, UBS estimates GDP per capita in North Korea to be only $648. In comparison, the equivalent figure south of the peninsula comes in at $27,396. ........ Scaling its per-capita figure up to nationwide GDP, North Korea's economy totals $16.3bn, about 12 per cent of Jeff Bezos's net worth. If North Korea's economy was to match it's southern counterpart, this figure would have to grow by a factor of 43, or $684bn. ....... the US, China, Japan, and South Korea split the costs evenly: USD500 billion each over a decade. ......... This would be 2.4%, 3.5%, 9.7%, and 29.5% of today’s GDP of the US, China, Japan, and SK, and only 1.7%, 1.6%, 7.3%, and 18.3% of the GDP of the four nations over the coming decade. This price tag seems affordable for the four countries mentioned above. ........... Around $2trn over ten years then. Whether the four named countries will deem it “affordable” is another question, particularly as the Trump administration seems reticent to fiscally support Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria last year. ...... the extreme malnutrition in North Korea. A UNICEF estimate from January estimates around 200,000 children in North Korea suffer from the affliction. Malnutrition, of course, carries health effects beyond childhood, such as a reduction in motor skills and learning ability. ........ Malnutrition’s economic costs are substantial: productivity losses to individuals are estimated at more than 10 percent of lifetime earnings, and gross domestic product (GDP) lost to malnutrition runs as high as 2 to 3 percent ....... less risk of nuclear apocalypse is bullish for global growth.

Britain disappointed after Trump cancels North Korea summit: UK PM May
Canceling of Trump-Kim Meeting Upends Asia but Could Help China: “Trump walking away from the summit lets North Korea meet all its objectives: public recognition, lighter sanctions, damage to U.S. alliances and continued nuclear advancement” ........ Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, on the other hand, may be breathing a sigh of relief. Officials in Tokyo were worried that the talks were moving too quickly, without enough Japanese involvement, and could result in a deal that would benefit the United States but leave Japan vulnerable to North Korea’s arsenal. ........ Mr. Trump also called Mr. Xi a “world-class poker player,” a backhanded compliment for a world leader whom Mr. Trump has called a friend and a partner in enforcing international sanctions on the North over its nuclear weapons program. ...... The confusion and finger-pointing show how complex the situation is, with numerous actors negotiating in multiple channels with myriad and sometimes overlapping agendas. ....... Chinese analysts say China has much to gain from a peace deal that would prevent a potentially disastrous conflict with the United States on its border, and that in the long run might result in the removal of American troops from South Korea. ....... “Blaming the Chinese for the change in tone from North Korea strikes me as trying to find a Chinese scapegoat for a summit failure"

My holiday in North Korea – what I learned in the world's most secretive state: On our 10-night tour, our three English speaking guides, the enforcer, the cheerleader and the persuader, show us a good time while keeping us on message. They take the lead in the open mic sessions on the bus that becomes our daytime home. They sing Korean folk songs with gusto but take even more pleasure in telling jokes against Americans and Japanese, the latter loathed on both sides of the DMZ for their brutal colonisation (1910-1945) and the “comfort women” they conscripted to pleasure the Imperial Army. ......... citizens have no foreign television, no internet and no right to travel outside their provinces. The fields, seen through the windows of the bus, are ploughed by oxen and harvested by hand. On occasion, uniformed soldiers are spotted digging ditches. Housing allocation ensures that children stay with their parents until they get married. Workers have 15 days holiday a year plus Sundays. What do they do? Go to the cinema or have a picnic in the park.

Inside the luxury world of Kim Jong-un: satellite images revealed that construction had been completed on a series of five private aircraft runways next to a few of the leader’s palaces. ...... "These runways are located near Kim family compounds - sometimes within the security perimeters - and next to private train stations that were used by Kim Jong Il” ...... The palace area is said to also house the leader’s private yachts, jet-skis and villas used for entertaining guests, while another extravagant palace a short drive from the new runway was said to be a summer haunt of Kenji Fujimoto, the Japanese chef who claimed to have spent summers with the leader’s father. ....... The former NBA (National Basketball Association) star described the life of Mr Kim, who he referred to as a “good friend” at the time, as a “seven-star” party of endless cocktails and jet-skis following a week spent on the leader’s private island........"It's [the island] like going to Hawaii or Ibiza, but he's the only one that lives there," Mr Rodman said. ........... "He's got 50 to 60 [people] around him all the time - just normal people, drinking cocktails and laughing the whole time..... "If you drink a bottle of tequila, it's the best tequila," he added. "Everything you want, he has the best." ......Mr Kim’s 200 foot-yacht was a "cross between a ferry and a Disney boat," according to Mr Rodman. ....... Princess Yachts, the manufacturer of the yacht, is owned by LVMH, the French luxury goods group which includes the luxury fashion brand Louis Vuitton. The 98MY model of the yacht, which was an updated version of the 95MY, was estimated to cost more than £5.6 million at the time. ........ Perhaps inspired by the boarding school days of his formative teenage years spent in Switzerland, Mr Kim also ordered a “world class” luxury ski resort to be built, which opened last year. The estimated £21 million ski resort, which features 70 miles of multi-level ski runs, a hotel, a heliport and cable cars, was visited by Mr Kim in late 2013 who spent New Year’s Eve there and described “with great satisfaction" that everything was "impeccable". ........ While some of the country's nearly 24 million people might be lacking food, shelter and other basic necessities, the North Korean leader's regime was found to have had an increase in imports of musical instruments, cosmetics, handbags, leather products, watches and cars made in Japan and China ........ Other purchases that were revealed included bottles of high-end alcohol costing the state $30 million (£20 million), electronic goods costing $37 million and luxury watches costing a further $8.2 million.



Libyan remarks may have sunk Donald Trump’s North Korea summit: both sides have resorted to chest-beating about their respective nuclear arsenals. ....... increasingly clear that the US and North Korea understand different things by the term “denuclearisation”. For the Trump administration, that must simply mean that North Korea scraps its nuclear weapons and dismantles its nuclear programme. For the North Koreans, however, “denuclearisation” was always framed as being part of a general disarmament process on the Korean peninsula, which would probably also involve the departure of US troops from South Korea ..... In the soap opera of “the Donald” and “little rocket man”, almost any plot-twist remains possible.

Trump Can Win by Walking Away From Korea Talks: What’s more, the U.S. can promise Kim not to invade his country. The U.S. can entice Kim with cash and trade. The U.S. can perform all kinds of diplomatic acrobatics and pretend this tyrant is a statesman. But no one can guarantee that one day the North Korean people will not rise up against him. The Soviet Union had a nuclear arsenal that could destroy the world dozens of times over, but even that regime eventually met its end after Boris Yeltsin decided holding the empire together wasn’t worth the repression required. ..... Back when Bolton was undersecretary of state in George W. Bush’s first term, he used to keep framed copies of Iranian and North Korean propaganda sheets that denounced him. ..... Bolton knows the nuclear file and rogue states better than almost anyone else in the foreign policy establishment. If anyone will know a tough nuclear agreement, it’s the man who has spent the last three years trying to get America out of the weak one Barack Obama cut with Iran....... Ronald Reagan was also eager for a diplomatic victory, in his summit with Mikhail Gorbachev. The two leaders came close to an agreement that would end the arms race that had bankrupted the Soviets. But at the last minute, Gorbachev asked Reagan to end testing missile defense systems. The Bolton of that scenario – administration hard-liner Richard Perle – told Reagan that this demand would kill the Pentagon's program. ....... Reagan went against popular opinion and walked out of the summit. Within three years the Soviet Union collapsed......Forget “the art of the deal”; sometimes you win by walking away. Reagan never received a Nobel Peace Prize for reaching a grand bargain with Gorbachev. He had to settle for winning the Cold War.

White House: North Korea's response to Pence was 'last straw'
Trump calls off North Korea summit with Kim

'Political Dummy' and 'Libya Model': The Mike Pence - North Korea Exchange That Killed the Summit: When asked to clarify if he was threatening Kim as the 'Libya model' ended with regime change and death for Moammar Gadhafi, Pence added this is not a 'threat' so much as a 'fact' ......... She added: “To borrow their words, we can also make the U.S. taste an appalling tragedy it has neither experienced nor even imagined up to now.”

South Korea's President Moon Says Talks With Kim Will Resume When U.S. Air Drills End: Pyongyang pulled out of high-level talks with Seoul on May 16, blunting the optimism that followed Moon and Kim’s historic April 27 meeting, in which the latter pledged “a new era of peace” on the peninsula. Calling the joint drills a “provocative military ruckus” North Korea also said it would “reconsider” Kim’s planned June 12 summit with the U.S. if America tried to “force” its “unilateral nuclear abandonment.” ........ Pyongyang has long regarded U.S.–South Korea joint military exercises a rehearsal for invasion and particularly objects to the inclusion of bombers. The U.S. dropped more ordinance on North Korea in the 1950’s than it did in the entire Pacific theater during World War II. ...... While Pinkston has described North Korean nuclear disarmament as analogous to “the Pope abandoning Jesus” he says that Moon, an accomplished diplomat, would be hoping that social interaction and engagement will persuade Kim leader he is not under threat. ...... Trump meanwhile, “is applying the kind of tools and instruments and tactics in a local real estate market in NYC,” says Pinkston. But “with an international system there are no courts, there’s no third-party enforcer. It’s way over his head and it’s dangerous.”

North Korea Demolishes Its Nuclear Test Site In A 'Huge Explosion'



Trump cancels summit with North Korea's Kim, warns that military ready: and warned that the U.S. military was ready in the event of any reckless acts by North Korea. ....... what would have been the first-ever meeting between a serving U.S. president and a North Korean leader in Singapore on June 12. ..... The cancellation came just hours after North Korea followed through on a pledge to blow up tunnels at its main nuclear test site, which Pyongyang said was proof of its commitment to end nuclear testing....... North Korea’s announcement of its plan to destroy its only nuclear test site had been widely welcomed as a positive, if largely symbolic, step. Kim has declared his nuclear force complete, amid speculation the site was obsolete anyway...... South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who worked hard to help set up the summit and urged Trump at a White House meeting on Tuesday not to let a rare opportunity slip away, said he was “perplexed” by the cancellation. He urged Trump and Kim to talk directly......... The reference to Pence that offended the White House came in a statement released by North Korean media citing Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui. She called Pence a “political dummy” for comparing North Korea - a “nuclear weapons state” - to Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi gave up his unfinished nuclear development program, only to be killed later by NATO-backed fighters. ....... “You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God that they will never have to be used” ..... Rhetoric reached new heights under Trump as he mocked Kim as “little rocket man” and threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea if necessary. Kim called Trump mentally deranged. ....... It comes at a time when Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has drawn criticism and his moving of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem has fueled violence. An investigation into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 election hangs over his presidency.

Why did anyone ever take Trump’s North Korea diplomacy seriously?: Trump lies and says nonsense all the time. ....... He never delivered his much-promised plan to release a “terrific” Obamacare alternative that would cover everyone. Instead, he backtracked on his promise to protect Medicaid from cuts. He never took on the National Rifle Association. He never delivered a solution for DREAMers, and, of course, Mexico isn’t going to pay for the wall...... He’s dropped the promise to negotiate lower prescription drug prices for Medicare. He dropped the promise to break up big banks. He dropped the promise of a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. He dropped the promise to develop a tax program that would leave the rich paying more. And, of course, his version of “draining the swamp“ has brought a level of corruption to official Washington that would have embarrassed the congressional barons of the Gilded Age....... it has been conducted so far like you would expect a bullshitter to conduct policy. ...... “for at least two decades, leaders in North Korea have been seeking a personal meeting with an American president,” and across all that time, American presidents have been saying no. ...... “Kim Jong Il wanted to meet with President Clinton.” ...... rather than defend the president’s dovish new direction, Republicans — including the White House itself — spun the meeting as a concession by the North Koreans. ....... When a notorious liar does something dramatic and new and immediately tries (poorly) to cover up what it is that he’s doing, a sensible reaction would have been to become alarmed and suspicious — not to suddenly become credulous and naive. ....... Much of the US national security establishment, however, decided to simply block out everything they have learned from everything Trump has ever done in his career in business and politics. ...... It’s good that Trump gave up the ghost here rather than trying to fake his way through a summit. But it’s critical that the country’s political and media establishment try to actually learn its lesson here. Trump lies about a lot of things. He talks nonsense constantly. And while those of us who don’t work in the White House can’t stop him from doing those things, we can certainly cover him as a habitual liar and bullshitter rather than waking up each morning like we’ve never seen Trump in action before.

Trump canceled the Kim Jong Un summit — but you can still buy the official summit coin



Kim Jong Un holds second meeting with Xi Jinping in China: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has paid a second visit to China in two months, meeting with President Xi Jinping ahead of highly anticipated talks between Kim and US President Donald Trump...... Kim said he was willing to denuclearize "as long as relevant parties eliminate the hostile policy and security threats" against Pyongyang...... In an unprecedented meeting at the demilitarized zone separating the two countries, Kim became the first North Korean leader to step into South Korean territory since 1953...... During the summit, Kim and Moon committed themselves to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and pledged to bring a formal end to the Korean War, 65 years after hostilities ceased...... In the past, North Korean leaders have been reluctant to travel by air on international journeys, especially Kim's father, Kim Jong Il, who famously went everywhere in his personal armored train....... The Chinese President is reportedly planning a trip to the North Korean capital Pyongyang



South Korean president says Trump cancelling Kim Jong Un summit is 'very regretful and disconcerting': "It is very regretful and disconcerting that the US-NK summit will not happen as planned," Moon's office said. "Denuclearization and the lasting peace on the Korean peninsula cannot be abandoned or delayed as they are the historical assignment.........."South Korea's Blue House added: "The sincerity of the affected parties who have been working to resolve the problem has not changed. It is hard to resolve sensitive and difficult diplomatic issues with the current way of communications. [We] hope that the leaders resolve problems through direct and close dialogue." ...... The meeting, which was scheduled for June 12 in Singapore, would have been the first-ever face-to-face meeting between a U.S. president and a North Korean leader...... North Korea had recently canceled planned talks with South Korea, saying the annual military drills between its southern neighbor and the U.S. represented a threat.