Barackface: United States Congress

Showing posts with label United States Congress. Show all posts

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Modi Wave Or Pendulum Swing?

It is interesting to me that the non-Congress, non-BJP parties collectively got more votes than either the BJP or the Congress. What is even more interesting is that the BJP has grown largely at the expense of the Congress.

I think Modi has earned himself 10 years. But in a post-Modi scenario there is going to be room for the creation of a Third Front.

Saturday, May 17, 2014

Uttar Pradesh: SP + BSP + Congress

It would make sense for the SP, the BSP and the Congress to come together. If that materializes, that alliance would sweep Uttar Pradesh. The BJP got 34 million votes, the SP collected 17 million, the BSP 15 million, and the Congress 6 million. 17 plus 15 plus 6 is 38 million. That would be a winning number. Just like in Bihar, the Congress gets to come in as a junior member. And that sets the national trend.

This election might bring the JD(U), the RJD, the SP, the BSP and the Congress under one umbrella. And if that happens, the Hindi heartland is back on rebel ground.

Friday, May 16, 2014

Modi's Opposition Can Hope To Sharpen Their Skills In The States

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It has been seen in American politics that when one party holds the White House, the other party ends up with most of the governorships. People are fair overall.

I think Modi just took over for 10 years. That does not mean his opponent parties and politicians have hit a dead end. Ask Jayalalita, Mamata and Patnaik. They are feeling pretty good right now.

The Congress and others have that option. They can hope to do well at the state level before they regain power at the center, which is a very hypothetical scenario by now. Modi was not known to make policy mistakes in Gujrat. I think he will be equally thorough at the center.

I think that puts Nitish in a curious position in Bihar. He has much to prove.

But right now it is looking like the BJP has a strong claim to the state government in Uttar Pradesh. And it is an open secret they would also like to run Bihar. But I am not counting out Nitish just yet.

Friday, May 02, 2014

Secular Front

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Layers Of Support For Nitish

On May 16 either Modi will become PM, or the country will go bipolar. A formal Secular Front might emerge. Yes, that could be its precise name. What brings all these non-BJP parties together? It is the "secular" issue. So that might as well be the name. You are looking at a coalition where the Congress for the first time is a formal, junior partner. And there is a formal coordination committee, and the government lasts a full five years.

All parties will not be equal. The coalition itself will have mini-coalitions inside of it. The Third Front will take the lead because the Third Front parties will collectively be bigger than the Congress. Mamata's Federal Front might bring together the three ladies.

So the Third Front of the Janata Parivar parties, the Left, and a few others, the Federal Front of the three ladies, the Congress, AAP, and others, and independents, together they could constitute a formal Secular Front.

Modi has run an impressive campaign. And I am not going to guess as to the outcome. Like I said, I will just wait for the outcome.

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Modi Wave?

English: Nitish Kumar (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

“India is a geographical term. It is no more a united nation than the equator.”
- Winston Churchill

Mamata was the Congress' largest ally, and she quit that alliance and is strongly anti-Congress, and anti-BJP today. Nitish was the BJP's largest ally, and he quit that alliance and is strongly anti-BJP and anti-Congress today. And if the states are like independent countries, the non-Congress, non-BJP parties stand the strongest chance today. My back envelope arithmetic is putting Nitish at the top. He is the best performing politician in India and deserves it.

Why waves don’t matter

Do national narratives or waves play an important role in determining voter preferences across states? Not really, as this analysis shows. Using the definition of a national wave as “a nationwide sentiment that can work either for or against one national party”, historical electoral data analysis reveals that waves are not probably worth squabbling over. The impact of national sentiment on vote- and seat-share has declined significantly over the last four decades as voting preferences get more local and state-specific. This analysis shows India’s national elections may not be national in its true sense but merely a series of state elections held simultaneously to elect a Central government.