Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Turkey. Show all posts

Thursday, November 17, 2022

Peace Moves Are Political Warfare

Affirm The Dignity Of Your Adversary “Keep strong, if possible. In any case, keep cool. Have unlimited patience. Never corner an opponent, and always assist him to save face. Put yourself in his shoes—so as to see things through his eyes. Avoid self-righteousness like the devil—nothing is so self-blinding.”



Maoists like to say, the party controls the gun. The political has to control the military.

The military-industrial complex in the United States can not be allowed to have the upper hand like in Afghanistan. We are on the brink of possible nuclear disaster. The world can not count on Putin being rational. The world can not count on Putin's orders for nuclear strike being disobeyed. The world should not have to count on a coup inside Russia.

I was glad when the HIMARS landed inside Ukraine and the tide turned.

But a war where the military-industrial complex is steering the wheel is a mercenary war. Follow the money. This has to be a war for liberty. This has to be primarily a political fight.

Peace efforts have to be made. The political players have to be primary. A peacemaker necessarily has to be a neutral player. Right now only India qualifies. I see a Nobel Peace Prize here for the Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar.

India is now president of the G20. By the end of the decade it will have become a larger economy than the United States. And it is the only big power that is equally close to both Russia and the United States.

I actually see Putin's point. When there are ethnic riots in Indonesia, or Malaysia, it is the ethnic Chinese that suffer. India blockaded Nepal for months several years ago when the ethnic Indians inside Nepal were short shifted in the country's new constitution that was drawn in smoky rooms instead of a constituent assembly. My guess is the ethnic Russians inside Ukraine are in some sort of a predicament. Jaishankar was the top bureaucrat in the Indian Foreign Ministry at the time and was specifically tasked to fly over to Kathmandu by Modi for some last minute messaging. He was rebuffed.

You can not make peace unless you really, really listen to both sides. A power that sides with the US in knee-jerk manners could not make peace. A power that might be the next Russia (read: Taiwan) can not make the peace moves. Only India can. And India should jump into the fray. You don't need permission. Whose permission?

A Russian missile did land in Poland. Lithuania is nervous. The world can not afford this game of Russian roulette.



What does Russia want? Russia wants the ethnic Russians inside Ukraine to have political equality. What does Ukraine want? Ukraine wants its 1991 borders. Russia promised to respect that. Is it possible Putin is not being straight? It is. But peace can only be made by the wise and the strong. Jaishankar is no bit player. This is the Indian diplomats' momement to shine. India wants veto power. It should earn it by forging this peace.

Russia has to be willing to withdraw its military completely. But that territory can not be handed over to Ukraine. UN peacekeeping forces should step in. Something like a year should be allowed. A referendum should be organized under global supervision. Ukraine will have the option to put forth power devolutions such that these regions where the ethnic Russians are in majority feel there is plenty of local autonomy. Ukraine can proactively offer that kind of federalism long before the votes are cast. I thik this much political work Ukraine has to be willing to do. The war can not be about land. The tussle has to be about people.

Politics inside Russia is a separate topic. That is not an agenda for the peace process. But a peace process that gets the Russian military to vacate all of Ukraine will also bring back all those Russians who have fled, including those who dodged the draft. There is high chance they might take to the streets in organized fashions. But that is domestic Russian politics. That is not something for the peace process.

As the peace process advances, other topics can also be tackled. Reconstruction and neutral war crime investigations can be carried out. Both leave room for some creativity. Maybe there are powers like Saudi Arabia that will be happy to chip in some. That can be allowed. Why not?

The political has to be above the military. A top US General just went on record to say he does not see how Ukraine can militarily push out Russia from all of Ukraine any time soon. So why not use the winter for peace efforts and political moves?

India does not need America's permission. Use the same oil and food logic you have been using to keep buying Russian oil. To that add nuclear radiation fears. You don't want nuclear radiation in New York and London. There is a very famous Indian in London these days. His name is Rishik Sunak.

I was very actively involved with Nepal's peace process in 2005 and 2006. The American ambassador at the time kept arguing there was only a military solution. The Maoists must be defeated at the point of a gun. It was so obvious to me that was not an available path. In trying lied thousands of dead bodies and mayhem. Only the political path was possible. The political path was taken. Nepal saw rapid peace. The Moist supremo and his deputy both became Prime Minister. Both are still active politically. The supremo is right now campaigning in a national election. He is peacefully asking for votes and is pretty good at it.

American shine can mask a lot of uncivility and crude thinking. The gun speaks is one such thinking. It is bad thinking. Look at the gun deaths in America. There are people who worry the US might see a civil war in the future. There are 50,000 gun deaths every year in America. In any other country you would call that a civil war. It is not a very civil situation. Nepal's civil war lasted 10 years and cost 17,000 lives.

India must jump in and help make the peace. Peace necessarily involves give and take. The final outcome can not be fully foreseen. There will be twists and turns along the way. But right now there is zero effort. Stop asking for permission. Whose permission? New York City announced nuclear attack drills months ago.

Before the tactical nuclear strike, there can be electrical outages. That is plenty of bad news. If there is a nuclear strike, however small, the US has made explicit its intention to completely destroy the Russian military in all of Ukraine and the Black Sea. At that point Russia backs down or it launches the strategic nukes which is Mutually Assured Destruction, the so-called MAD situation. That will not spare any country, not China, not India. No territory, no ideology, no value is worth that destruction. So step in and help the two powers step back. De-escalate. Help de-escalate.

Ukraine has to be willing to forge a most cutting edge federalism for all of Ukraine. That is no price to pay to keep all of its territory.







Indonesia’s Widodo calls on G20 to work to ‘end the war’ Indonesian president appears to reference Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as he opens key global summit in Bali. .

Russia’s Road to Economic Ruin The Long-Term Costs of the Ukraine War Will Be Staggering ........ After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the Russian economy seemed destined for a nosedive. International sanctions threatened to strangle the economy, leading to a plunge in the value of the ruble and Russian financial markets. Everyday Russians appeared poised for privation. ......... More than eight months into the war, this scenario has not come to pass. Indeed, some data suggest that the opposite is true, and the Russian economy is doing fine. The ruble has strengthened against the dollar, and although Russian GDP has shrunk, the contraction may well be limited to less than three percent in 2022.......... Look behind the moderate GDP contraction and inflation figures, however, and it becomes evident that the damage is in fact severe: the Russian economy is destined for a long period of stagnation. The state was already interfering in the private sector before the war. That tendency has become only more pronounced, and it threatens to further stifle innovation and market efficiency. The only way to preserve the viability of the Russian economy is through either major reforms—which are not in the offing—or an institutional disruption similar to the one that occurred with the fall of the Soviet Union. .......... unrealistic expectations of what economic measures can do ......... Economic sanctions did, of course, have other immediate effects. Curbing Russia’s access to microelectronics, chips, and semiconductors made production of cars and aircraft almost impossible. From March to August, Russian car manufacturing fell by an astonishing 90 percent, and the drop in aircraft production was similar. The same holds true for the production of weapons, which is understandably a top priority for the government. Expectations that new trade routes through China, Turkey, and other countries that are not part of the sanctions regime would compensate for the loss of Western imports have been proved wrong. The abnormally strong ruble is a signal that backdoor import channels are not working. If imports were flowing into Russia through hidden channels, importers would have been buying dollars, sending the ruble down. Without these critical imports, the long-term health of Russia’s high-tech industry is dire. ............ Even more consequential than Western technology sanctions is the fact that Russia is unmistakably entering a period in which political cronies are solidifying their hold on the private sector. This has been a long time in the making. After the 2008 global financial crisis hit Russia harder than any other G-20 country, Russian President Vladimir Putin essentially nationalized large enterprises. In some cases, he placed them under direct government control; in other cases, he placed them under the purview of state banks. To stay in the government’s good graces, these companies have been expected to maintain a surplus of workers on their payrolls. Even enterprises that remained private have in essence been prohibited from firing employees. This has provided the Russian people with economic security—at least for the time being—and that stability is a critical part of Putin’s compact with his constituents. .......... But an economy in which enterprises cannot modernize, restructure, and fire employees to boost profits will stagnate. Not surprisingly,

Russia’s GDP growth from 2009 to 2021 averaged 0.8 percent per year, lower than the period in the 1970s and 1980s that preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union.

........ government officials, military generals, and high-ranking bureaucrats—many of them Putin’s friends—became multimillionaires. The living standards of ordinary Russians, in contrast, have not improved in the past decade. ......... Since the beginning of the war, the government has tightened its grip on the private sector even further. Starting in March, the Kremlin rolled out laws and regulations that give the government the right to shut down businesses, dictate production decisions, and set prices for manufactured goods. The mass mobilization of military recruits that started in September is providing Putin with another cudgel to wield over Russian businesses because to preserve their workforces, company leaders will need to bargain with government officials to ensure that their employees are exempt from conscription. ......... To be sure, the Russian economy has long operated under a government stranglehold. But Putin’s most recent moves are taking this control to a new level. As the economists Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny have argued, the one thing worse than corruption is decentralized corruption. It’s bad enough when a corrupt central government demands bribes; it is even worse when several different government offices are competing for handouts. ....... That could create a dynamic reminiscent of the 1990s, when Russian business owners relied on private security, mafia ties, and corrupt officials to maintain control of newly privatized enterprises. Criminal gangs employing veterans of the Russian war in Afghanistan offered “protection” to the highest bidder or simply plundered profitable businesses. The mercenary groups that Putin created to fight in Ukraine will play the same role in the future. .......... Russia could lose the war, an outcome that would make it more likely that Putin would lose power. A new reformist government could take over and withdraw troops, consider reparations, and negotiate a lifting of trade sanctions. ......... Russia will emerge from the war with its government exercising authority over the private sector to an extent that is unprecedented anywhere in the world aside from Cuba and North Korea. ........ Particularly at first, they will target the most profitable enterprises, both at the national and local level. ......... The collapse of the Soviet state made institutions of that era irrelevant. A long and painful process of building new institutions, increasing state capacity, and reducing corruption followed—until Putin came to power and eventually dismantled market institutions and built his own system of patronage. The lesson is grim: even if Putin loses power and a successor ushers in significant reforms, it will take at least a decade for Russia to return to the levels of private-sector production and quality of life the country experienced just a year ago. Such are the consequences of a disastrous, misguided war. .

at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , , ,

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

14: Russia, Turkey, India, Mongolia, Ukraine



Ukraine suffering 'terrifying' casualties Russia earned a record $97 billion in revenue from fossil fuel exports in the first 100 days of the war; about 61% of those exports went to European Union nations. ........ The leaders of France, Germany and Italy are planning a possible visit to Kyiv later this month



मतदाताले दलहरूको दलदलबाट उन्मुक्ति पाउने बाटो रोजे र बालेन उदाए।



at No comments:
Labels: , , , ,

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

What's Up With Qatar!

This tweet showed up in my Twitter stream. It is from Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor, a real estate entrepreneur out of Dubai who is also very political and very outspoken. He is active on social media. That is how he first came to my attention a few weeks ago.


Just from skimming the headlines I did become aware of a minor political scuffle between Qatar and its bigger neighbors a few years back. I never got a chance to read deeply into it. But I am glad they are sorting it out. Peace is important. No prosperity without peace. Peacemaking is a skill of the highest order and an endeavor of the highest order. It is grand to make peace.
 
Qataris, Saudis Make New Bid to Mend a Long-Festering Feud A top Qatari official traveled to Saudi Arabia, but U.S. tempers hopes for ending standoff that hinders efforts to counter Iran ...... a diplomatic breakthrough that signals the most serious effort yet to end a 2½-year rift between U.S. allies in the energy-rich Gulf 

Qatari foreign minister's Saudi visit seen easing Gulf rift signs that a 2-1/2-year rift among U.S.-allied Gulf Arab states could soon subside. ....... the highest-level visit since May when Qatar’s prime minister attended an Arab summit in Mecca....... the Saudis seem sincere in trying to figure out the path forward ..... Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut diplomatic and trade links with Qatar in June 2017, accusing it of backing terrorism. Qatar denies the charge and accuses its neighbors of seeking to curtail its sovereignty...... Kuwait and the United States have tried to mediate the rift, which has undermined Washington’s efforts to confront Iran....... The boycotting nations set 13 demands for lifting the boycott, including closing Al Jazeera television, shuttering a Turkish military base, reducing ties with Iran and cutting links to the Muslim Brotherhood. ....... Riyadh was still waiting for Doha to answer the demands. ...... early efforts at internal reconciliation on Qatar seem to be underway....... A soccer tournament in Qatar kicked off on Tuesday with teams from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, in an apparent sign of improving ties...... A Gulf Arab diplomat said a regional summit expected early next month in Riyadh could lay the groundwork for improving ties which is more likely now than at any recent time....... “We see the Gulf kiss (with noses) coming,” the diplomat said.


Losing Its Grip on Gulf, Saudi Arabia Is Desperate for Political Win Trump's indecision and a wary Congress impel Riyadh to appeasement with neighboring Qatar, which has been under a Saudi-led blockade since 2017 ....... the Saudi envoy to Kuwait, Sultan bin Sa’ad al-Saud, declared that “sports might repair what politics has ruined.” ........ Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain joined the boycott and closed their airspace to flights from and to Qatar, with Riyadh sealing shut Qatar’s only land crossing, cutting off a key route for food and construction imports as hostilities mounted. The Saudi team’s plane that landed this week in Qatar was the first to break the siege......... Two years ago Saudi Arabia presented Doha with a number of demands, the most important of which were that it severs ties with Iran and halt its meddling in the affairs of other countries, especially through infuriating activity of the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera network and its broadcast criticism of the Gulf states and Egypt. Not only that Qatar refused to comply with these demands, it also impressively managed to overcome the economic blockade imposed on it with the help of Turkey and Iran and established a number of factories to produce goods that until then had been imported from abroad...........

its citizens, who have the world’s highest per capita incomes.

....... Much to the Saudis’ resentment, despite the tension between the two countries and Qatar’s close cooperation with Iran, Washington continued to maintain excellent relations with the small emirate in which the largest American airbase in the Persian Gulf is located.......... Donald Trump’s efforts over the past two years to bring about reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Qatar failed. However, it seems that it was precisely Trump's strategic decision to withdraw America from the Middle East that impelled Saudi Arabia toward appeasement with Qatar. ....... The Gulf arena, in which Saudi Arabia had ruled high-handedly, is beginning to look like Swiss cheese. From the Saudi perspective, not only has Qatar become a hostile country, but Oman and Kuwait didn’t join the boycott on Qatar while the United Arab Emirates, Saudis’ ally and strategic partner, decided to abandon the Yemeni front and massage its relations with Iran. A defense accord and economic agreements signed in recent weeks between the UAE and Iran have not ignited hostilities between Saudi Arabia and its neighbor, at least not publicly, but these have been added to the list of bin Salman’s diplomatic flubs.......... The Yemeni front could be the next site of a Saudi diplomatic effort, which if successful would enable bin Salman to claim at least one diplomatic achievement. On November 5 an agreement was signed in Riyadh between the recognized Yemeni government headed by President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, and what is known as the Southern Transitional Council, a military political body that has taken control of the city of Aden with aid from the UAE and is demanding the establishment of an independent state in southern Yemen.............. The agreement that was presided over by Khaled bin Salman, the crown prince's brother, stipulates that within a month’s time a new government will be established in Yemen. Said government will consist of 24 ministers equally divided among representatives of the recognized government and the separatist Southern Transitional Council, and the armies of the two sides will be united into a single army............ The direct responsibility is now incumbent on Salman’s brother Khaled, who has also been given permission to start negotiations with the Iran-backed Shi’ite Houthi rebels in Yemen. Therein lies the more important development that could lead to an end to the war that has been raging for nearly five years and in which approximately 100,000 people have been killed, hundreds of thousands left homeless and millions more are in need of food and medicine..........

Oman has already succeeded in setting up direct talks between the Saudi leadership and the Houthi leadership.

....... the direct contact between Khaled bin Salman and the Houthi Supreme Council began in September. Shortly after the attack on the Saudi oil complexes, bin Salman suggested to Houthi leader Mahdi al-Mashat the establishment of two committees – a political committee and a military committee – for direct discussions of a long-term truce and an outline for a diplomatic solution. The Houthis accepted the proposal and dispatched their Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein al-Azzi to Oman on a United Nations ship. From there he flew to Amman, the capital of Jordan, where the meeting was held......... the direct contact between Khaled bin Salman and the Houthi Supreme Council began in September. Shortly after the attack on the Saudi oil complexes, bin Salman suggested to Houthi leader Mahdi al-Mashat the establishment of two committees – a political committee and a military committee – for direct discussions of a long-term truce and an outline for a diplomatic solution. The Houthis accepted the proposal and dispatched their Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein al-Azzi to Oman on a United Nations ship. From there he flew to Amman, the capital of Jordan, where the meeting was held.

Saudi breaks its own blockade on Qatar as team lands in Doha for Gulf Cup Qatar's successful bid to host the 2022 World Cup is suspected of sparking bitter envy among Gulf rivals, with some analysts believing that the Saudi-blockade was in part designed to disrupt preparations for the prestigious global tournament......... Shortly after the blockade was imposed, Saudi Arabia gave Kuwait a list of 13 demands to pass on to Doha, which included shuttering media outlers such as Al Jazeera and The New Arab........ Qatar rejected these, saying that they violated its sovereignty and aimed to impose hegemony on it. The blockade has been largely ineffective. 

Is a resolution of the GCC crisis imminent? The September 14 attack on Aramco has forced Saudi Arabia to revise its policies towards the region and the GCC. ....... "This football decision is a very political decision," commented Abdulkhaleq Abdullah, a political science professor known to be close to decision-making circles in Abu Dhabi. "It is preparation for bigger things," he added. ...... it seems the September 14 drone attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities have had a significant effect on Riyadh. They mark a turning point in Saudi foreign policy on many levels, including the GCC crisis........ Regardless of where the drones came from - Yemen, Iraq or Iran - the fact that they were able to reach Aramco's facilities represents the biggest American failure in the Gulf since Donald Trump came to power. As a result, it has upset what many assumed to be strong relations between Riyadh and the Trump administration on at least two levels.......... since the advanced American anti-missile defence system, the Patriot, was unable to protect a vital national asset like Aramco from drones, then the question arises: why should the Saudi leadership seek to purchase more weapons and military technology from the US? ....... revealed the security vulnerability of Saudi Arabia and raised serious concerns over any possible escalation with Iran or the Houthis in the future. ........ the September 14 incident also demonstrated the disloyalty of the Trump administration to its allies. Washington refused to attack Iran in response and instead started bargaining with Saudi Arabia over who should cover the costs of a US military deployment. Almost one month after the attack, the US sent 3,000 solders to the Gulf with the US president declaring triumphantly: "Saudi Arabia, at my request, has agreed to pay us for everything we're doing." ........ These two realisations - that no amount of US military weaponry can protect the country and that the US is no longer a reliable partner - seem to have necessitated a revision of Saudi foreign policy and national security strategy. Its results are already clear. ......... In late October, Saudi Arabia oversaw negotiations between Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the secessionist Southern Transitional Council, which had been fighting for control of southern Yemen. In November, a peace deal was announced which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) described as an important step towards "a political solution in Yemen"..........

Saudi Arabia has also sought to de-escalate its conflict with Iran.

The New York Times recently reported that "Saudi Arabia and Iran have taken steps toward indirect talks to try to reduce the tensions" between them. Its main regional ally, the UAE, has also been involved in de-escalation efforts. Earlier this month, Emirati Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash said further escalation with Iran "serves no one" and that there is room for "collective diplomacy"............ since Trump has failed to deliver on regional security, Saudi Arabia definitely needs a strong and united GCC to deal with the enormous regional challenges. Kuwait's persistent mediation efforts over the past two and a half years have ensured that the door for direct negotiations has remained wide open. 




Signs Mount That Qatar Embargo May End as Mediation Gears Up signs are emerging that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could be trying to resolve conflicts that have cast a shadow over the kingdom’s political stability. ....... To that end, Prince Mohammed is also intensifying efforts to conclude the four-year war in Yemen ...... The U.A.E., Saudi Arabia’s main ally, has already pulled out most of its troops from Yemen as it seeks to ease tensions with Iran after a string of attacks on oil targets in the region raised fears of an all-out war. ....... The war in Yemen and the crisis with Qatar were widely seen as signs of a more aggressive foreign policy by Prince Mohammed and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.


Emir says Qatar has overcome obstacles of Gulf blockade Sheikh Tamim lays out economic achievements, says Doha ready to resolve disputes based on principle of mutual respect....... "We've overcome the obstacles of the blockade and we're also closer to achieving Qatar's national vision for the year 2030," the emir said. ...... Sheikh Tamim said Qatar has always been ready to resolve differences based on the principles of mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs. 

Qatar and Saudi Arabia: Is a thaw in the Gulf cold war in sight? The realisation that Donald Trump's US does not have their back has caused a rethink in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over how to deal with Doha ........ the three blockading countries have been engaging in a war over narratives with Qatar since – a clash in the information space, which now appears to be ebbing away. ......... Leaders in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have realised that the weaponisation of narratives has failed to render any desired outcomes .......

Qatar appears economically to be the most resilient state in the Gulf in 2019, its links to the West and Washington in particular remain strong, and its reputation widely untarnished.

.......... Qatar coming out of its shell post-blockade, for the first time proactively explaining its strategies and policies, telling its side of the story of the Arab Spring while openly answering warrantable critical questions from journalists, partners and allies. ........ the apparent fading of Gulf tensions must be understood within the context of a widespread disappointment in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in US President Donald Trump, whose administration has been the main audience for this war over narratives against Qatar. .......... Despite Tehran pushing the boundaries in a range of escalatory attacks throughout the summer, Washington has remained silent – then the hastily, disorganised US withdrawal from Syria re-emphasised that America has no appetite to defend its interests in the region with hard power. ......... The UAE’s switch from direct to indirect engagement in Yemen via surrogates is as much a product of this re-think as the Saudi decision to open up to the idea of a power-sharing agreement with the Houthis to end the war in Yemen. ....... both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have reengaged with Tehran, understanding that Washington would not allow the Gulf states to fight Iran to the last American, but that they would be the ones bearing the burden of war. ...........

For Qatar, the blockade has been a blessing in disguise, allowing for more independent decision-making domestically and in terms of foreign policy. Reforms could be pushed through without having to de-conflict with its neighbours and new trade relations forged based on cost-efficiency and not neighbourly goodwill.

........ However, the idea that Emir Tamim bin Hamad and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would shake hands to seal a reconciliatory deal in the near future appears utopian at this point.



Why the UAE needs to scupper a Saudi deal with Qatar Two years ago, bloodcurdling threats were made by Saudi and Emirati state-controlled goons about what they would do to Qatar if it did not roll over like Bahrain and become a satellite of their bigger, stronger and wiser neighbours........... They were going to dig a canal along Qatar's land border and dump nuclear waste in it. They were going to do to the emir of Qatar what they did to Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi, who was ousted in a military coup. They were going to turn Doha into another Rabaa Square, where 817 Egyptians were massacred......... Physical threats were accompanied by diplomatic ones. In Washington, former administration officials were conscripted to threaten the Gulf peninsula with the withdrawal of the US airforce base at Al Udeid. ......... Qatar did not blink. The overt threats to its national sovereignty turned the emir into an unlikely local hero. ............ Two years into the blockade, Qatar's economy is stronger; it produces more of its own foodstuffs; it has more friends in Washington - as a result of spending a lot of money there - and Al Udeid is even bigger than it was. Al Jazeera continues to broadcast, recently centring a month of programming around the anniversary of the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. ............... The policy of attempting to isolate Qatar has obviously gone wrong. What incentive does Mohammed bin Salman have to end it? To answer that question, we have to look at all the other things that have not worked out for the crown prince. ........ The most recent disaster is Saudi Aramco. Plans to raise $100bn on a five percent share sale, opening the Saudi market to foreign investors, have been around for over three years........They came crashing down on Sunday morning. Having failed repeatedly to get $2 trillion valuation he was depending on (the latest consensus was that Aramco was worth between $1.1tn and $1.5tn), the Saudi crown prince ditched the sale of shares on international money markets and announced the sale of 1.5 per cent on a valuation of $1.6-1.7 trillion which would only raise $25.6bn........... Attempting to solve the dispute with Qatar is part of a strategy to rethink where and how all MBS' foreign policy initiatives have gone wrong ...... The attack shook the crown prince, one informed source told me. "He could not have imagined that the Iranians would dare to do this to him. But even worse, he could not have imagined that the Americans would look the other way and do nothing. America has waged wars for less, so how could it have ignored the attacks in this way? Bin Salman now feels vulnerable," the source said. ............ Since the attack, the Saudi crown prince has been speaking to regional leaders, including Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. They all told him that his problems are his own fault. The Saudi crown prince does not need to speak to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to know how much damage the October 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi - which is still not resolved - has done to the future king's image in the world. .......... .....He also needs the money. Qatar is rich and in surplus. All Gulf disputes end one way or another by a ransom of some sort. ......... A Camp David-style stunt in which the leading Gulf states declare they are normalising relations with Israel has been rumoured for some time. ......... Thus did the self-styled Libyan Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who visited Riyadh before launching his attack on Tripoli. So, too, did the then Egyptian defence minister, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, wait for the green light from Saudi Arabia before proceeding with his coup against late president Mohamed Morsi - even though it had been planned in Abu Dhabi.

EXCLUSIVE: UAE’s secret mission to Iran Tahnoun bin Zayed, UAE national security adviser and crown prince’s brother, has been in Tehran aiming to defuse Gulf crisis ........... Tahnoun bin Zayed, the national security adviser of the United Arab Emirates and the crown prince’s younger brother, has been in Tehran for the last 48 hours on a secret mission aiming to defuse the Gulf crisis ...... It comes amid multiple signs of the UAE following its own, softer line with Tehran, after four tankers were attacked off the Emirati port of Fujairah earlier this year. ......... The Saudis have called on Iraqi prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to pass messages to Tehran. ........ Abdul Mahdi was mediating between the leaderships in Riyadh and Tehran and had communicated each side's conditions for talks to the other. ........... The UAE has recently shown more than one sign of pursuing its own path with Iran. It recently announced it was pulling its troops out of Yemen, and has publicly backed southern separatists in the port city of Aden splitting the country in two. .......... Recently, the Iranian backed Houthis and the Emirati-backed southern separatists took part in a prisoner exchange, which has not happened with forces loyal to Hadi.


EXCLUSIVE: Saudi Arabia gives 'green light' for talks with Iran Official in Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi's office confirms Baghdad has channels with both sides and is seeking to arrange meeting ....... Saudi Arabia has given a green light to Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to arrange a meeting with Iran as a first step towards de-escalating tensions in the region ...... "The Saudis have conditions before the negotiations process starts and the same with Iranians. We have liaised these conditions to each side. It is not an easy task to get together two opposite sides in terms of their ideology, sect and their alliances in the region." .............

Hasnawi said Abdul Mahdi had called for a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Iran which the Iraqi government would supervise and mediate, with Baghdad as its preferred venue.

....... "If there will be a potential deal in the region that includes Yemen, Syria and Iraq, the Americans have no problem with that" ....... "Saudi Arabia’s conditions are that Iran minimise its role in Yemen and Syria and stop supporting armed groups such as the Houthis. It also asks the Syrian regime to solve its problems with the Syrian opposition groups, and to write a constitution for Syria with all parties agreeing on it," he said............. a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran would mean the “total collapse of the global economy”. ....... On Tuesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani told Al Jazeera that Iran welcomed the crown prince’s apparent willingness to talk .......... “He told both the Iranians and the Americans Iraq is exhausted after decades of wars, conflicts and civil war.



Mohammed bin Zayed: Abu Dhabi's crown prince plays a long game Unlike the rash Saudi crown prince, MbZ knows when to retreat from hard power strategies that aren't working ......... his efforts to propel a small Gulf state onto the world stage as a significant and powerful Middle East player. ......... he is prepared to play the long game and to weigh up consequences and likely outcomes........ to the great chagrin of the Saudis, it is they who are bearing the brunt of international opprobrium. It is the Saudis who are the target of US politicians in both houses and on both sides, while the Emiratis, skilfully piloted by their Washington ambassador Yusuf al-Otaiba, have faced little scrutiny. ......... Now, to the consternation of the Saudis, the Emiratis are drawing down their troops and seem poised for a near complete pullout from the Yemen war. ......... With Iran, events in the chaotic White House of Donald Trump look increasingly to have gone MbZ’s way. The architect of the hardline strategy, National Security Advisor John Bolton, has been abruptly sacked by Trump. Now, this most unpredictable of presidents is ruminating on a meeting with the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. .............. The ultra-hawk Bolton who had called for regime change is gone, leaving both Mohammed bin Salman and Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, currently fighting for his political life, out on a limb. It’s a situation that MbZ cleverly avoided by playing down maritime incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, including the apparent mining of oil tankers off the coast of the UAE. ......... He also called for calm and stability at a time when Riyadh, Tel Aviv and Washington were enthusiastically beating the war drums. Now with Bolton gone and President Trump talking of a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, that looks a very shrewd call. ....... in the wake of last weekend's drone attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil facilities, which the US immediately blamed on Iran, a senior UAE officials said the attack was a dangerous escalation, but did not assign blame. ...... This is not to say that MbZ has had an entirely successful run. The UAE’s clumsy fake news attack on fellow Gulf Co-operation Council member Qatar in 2017 and the subsequent rupture of the GCC has proved an own goal..........The Qataris have ridden out the economic blockade imposed by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt, leaving them in the drivers seat, seemingly the only adults in the room. ......... The pivot to soft power is not a retreat, it is a retrenchment by a leader who has proven himself more than able to learn from his mistakes, something his counterpart in Riyadh continues to show himself incapable of doing.


When the Saudis and Emiratis fall out Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have endured decades of rivalry, and tension between the Zayeds and the Sauds is now exploding in Yemen .......... Just over a fortnight after he issued a decree stripping Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Abu Dhabi on Friday to collect a prize - the Order of Zayed, the statelet’s highest civilian award......... This makes perfect business sense for the little Sparta of the Gulf, hell-bent on establishing its own seaborne empire, from the ports of Yemen to the Horn of Africa, the Indian Ocean and beyond. ........... India is the third-largest energy consumer in the world and the Emiratis’ second-largest trading partner. So why should the Emiratis care for seven million Kashmiris in Indian-administered Kashmir, whose internationally recognised dispute is now to be treated as an “internal matter” for India............

The Emirati path to the unlimited markets of India is strewn with elephant traps for their neighbour Saudi Arabia.

....... “When the UAE came into existence in December 1971, Riyadh achieved its objective of excluding Qatar and Bahrain from the new federal state. Tremendous Saudi pressure forced the UAE to sign the 1974 Treaty of Jeddah that ceded claims to the Khor al-Udaid inland sea that linked it to Qatar,” Khashan wrote. ........ “Riyadh refused to recognize the UAE’s independence until its president, Zayed bin Sultan, signed the treaty under duress although the UAE has not yet ratified the treaty. When UAE head Khalifa bin Zayed took office in 2004, he visited Riyadh and demanded the treaty’s abrogation, ushering in an explosive crisis between the two states that took six years to subside.” ............ When a young, power-hungry Saudi prince in Mohammad bin Salman happened along, the elder and wiser Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed was not slow to seize his opportunity........It was he and his ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba, not the Saudi establishment, who beat a path to the door of the Oval Office for Mohammad bin Salman............. A limited circulation monthly report on Saudi Arabia, prepared by the Emirati Policy Centre, a think tank with close links to the UAE’s government and intelligence, notes how cravenly beholden the Saudis are to a vacillating US policy on Iran.



Saudi-Qatar Crisis Nearing End, Suggests a Hopeful U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Washington sees an ongoing political rift that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and non-Gulf state Egypt have with Qatar as a threat to efforts to contain Iran and has pushed for a united front ........ Washington has unsuccessfully tried to mediate the dispute, in which the four nations have severed political, trade and transport ties with Qatar since mid-2017 over accusations it supports terrorism.....Doha denies the charge and says the embargo aims to impinge on its sovereignty..........The United States is allied to all six Gulf Arab states. Qatar hosts Al-Udeid air base, the largest U.S. military facility in the region, while Bahrain is home to the Navy's Fifth Fleet........ Emphasising the principle of collective security, Goldfein said the best chance to defend the UAE could be from Qatar or neighbouring Oman........ "Neighbours to the right and to the left who by geometry-alone have a better shot," he said. 

Iran's Middle East Empire of Anarchy Can't Survive The grievances animating protests in Lebanon and Iraq are beyond anything Tehran or local leaders can cope with: This isn't an Arab Spring, this is a Persian Autumn ........ For a long time it looked like the spread of Iranian influence across the Middle East was unstoppable. Lebanon has long been in Iran s pocket via Hezbollah. Then the chaos created by the U.S. invasion of Iraq 
Qatar Fights Airspace Blockade in Top UN Court
Qatari emir receives invitation from Saudi king to attend Gulf summit
Egypt says Qatar supported Muslim Brotherhood “All the region’s countries were affected by the Qatari interference in their internal affairs,” the Egyptian official noted, explaining that, in 2013, Qatar’s Al-Jazeera TV channel was promoting what he described as “hatred and violence across Egyptians.” ...... Doha denies the allegations saying the boycotting countries are actually working to force a change in government in Qatar.


Another $7 billion of Qatari investments to flow into Turkey "Qatar will continue to invest in Turkey not only in the banking sector but also in the real estate sector. Some 35% of the $10 billion that Qatar has committed has been invested, and there is another $7 billion to flow into Turkey. Investments follow healthy political relations, and our relations with Turkey date back centuries" ..........

Qatar was Turkey's largest foreign investor last year

, according to Al-Jaida, who added that the two countries have healthy political relations and that the heads of states share a common strategic perspective on global developments. ....... The two allies' close economic ties strengthened significantly after a Saudi-led embargo on Qatar. Ankara emerged as one of Qatar's top partners since the Saudi Arabia-led bloc launched a trade and diplomatic boycott of the Gulf state in 2017, sending additional troops and food to meet Qatar's needs just after the embargo began. ........ Turkish investments in Qatar are projected to be worth some $17 billion ........ Malaysia serves as a door for Asia, Qatar for Africa and the Middle East and Turkey for Europe 

Princes at war in the Gulf In the past few years, a new generation of princes have come to power in the world’s richest oil-producing monarchies: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. While their predecessors maintained a cordial relationship between the three states, the princes have become bitter rivals, competing with each other over everything from sports and culture to armaments. Their ramped-up rivalry threatens a region already destabilised by years of conflict. ........ Between 2013 and 2015, three princes started governing the Gulf monarchies: Tamim Al Thani in Qatar, Mohammed Bin Salman in Saudi Arabia and Mohammed Bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi. The sovereigns, who are among the richest and most powerful in the world, quickly imposed new, more violent, styles of rule. ......... Tamim Al Thani, the 39-year-old emir of Qatar, was the first of the three to ascend his throne. Al Thani is a sports fanatic and sparked the envy of his competitive neighbours when Qatar won the honour of hosting 2022 FIFA World Cup. His rivals also accuse him of financing Islamist groups and for keeping too close a company with Iran. ......... With a penchant for video games, MBS is responsible for his country’s costly and deadly involvement in the war in Yemen. With the ambition of becoming the Middle East’s new strongman, MBS has found his ally and mentor in Mohammed Bin Zayed, or “MBZ”. MBZ is the 58-year-old crown prince of Abu Dhabi and the ruler of the United Arab Emirates. MBZ’s tiny nation is now one of the main military powerhouses in the Arabian Peninsula. ......... Although their fathers and grandfathers would discretely meet up in Bedouin tents to settle their differences, the princes have instead made it a habit of confronting each other head-on, frequently subjecting each other to cyber attacks, economic blockades and out-right threats of invasion.



UAE OFFICIALLY BACKS SYRIA'S ASSAD TO WIN WAR The UAE's position has in some ways been more moderate than neighboring Saudi Arabia, with Abu Dhabi openly seeking to rebuild ties with Syria and avoid outright tensions with Iran, whose revolutionary Shiite Islamic Republic backed Assad and was engaged in a bout for regional influence with Sunni Muslim monarchies on the Arabian Peninsula. The UAE's recent moves, however, came amid changing power dynamics across the Middle East....... The UAE was among the many nations to shutter its embassy in Syria in 2011, as mass anti-government protests devolved into all-out war and it later joined the likes of the U.S., Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and, even to some extent, Israel in backing various insurgent groups looking to overthrow Assad. This backing declined amid ideological infighting among such fighters, along with the rise of the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) and Russia's entry into the battle on the government's behalf in 2015. ........... Moscow's success in gathering rival parties for talks in Syria has helped cement its burgeoning status as a top diplomatic power in the region and has galvanized Gulf Cooperation Council nations to engage Russia, which has largely worked with non-Arab powers Iran and Turkey. As Russian troops assumed U.S. military positions left behind to avoid a fight between NATO ally Turkey and Pentagon-backed Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin made back-to-back visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 

An Islamic perspective of Qatar diplomatic crisis Trade cooperation between Qatar and those four countries make up 86 percent of the total trade Doha undertakes with Arab countries. ...... Qatari nationals and residents have been denied the right to perform Hajj and Umra because of the blockade .......

If we look at the Islamic traditions, there is a strong prohibition on mutual hostility and division among the people. Prophet Muhammad, for instance, states that: “Do not cut ties with each other and do not hate each other. It is not lawful for a Muslim to not greet his brothers or sisters for over three days...... “And hold firmly to the rope of Allah all together and do not become divided. And remember the favor of Allah upon you – when you were enemies and He brought your hearts together and you became, by His favor, brothers.”

........ The main lesson is that

Islam forbids disputes, animosity and divisions that occur between fellow human beings, and it actually calls upon the people to unite with each other. That is the true teaching of Islam.

....... cutting ties with Qatar is something that is strongly prohibited, more so restricting them to worship. ........ “A believer with another believer is like a sturdy building that reinforces one another.” This message calls the people to help one another, instead of making each other difficult. Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries should understand that the blockade has imposed various difficulties on Qatar. ......... Saudi Arabia should understand that Islam does not justify hostility between fellow Muslims as stated in several Qur’anic verses and Hadith. 

Analysis: Behind the punishing blockade against Qatar Qatar has embraced a domestic and foreign policy independent of Saudi's regional hegemony, making it a target........ Two years after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar and imposed a land, air and sea blockade, the Gulf crisis shows little sign of ending any time soon. ....... On the domestic front, aided by its vast hydrocarbon reserves, Qatar has modernised its infrastructure and raised the standard of living of its citizens to the highest in the world - a level other Gulf states have been unable to achieve. .........

Regarding foreign policy, Qatar's independent regional course led to it supporting popular demands for democratic change in the Arab world, especially during the Arab Spring revolts throughout the Middle East and North Africa.

....... "The Saudi and Emirati leaders have led a coalition of Arab regimes that supported the reversal of gains made by Arab societies during the Arab Spring upheavals and the restoration of authoritarian rule in the region," said Majed al-Ansari, a professor of political sociology at Qatar University.......... Al-Ansari added smaller Gulf states have historically been cautious of Saudi Arabia because of its attempts to dominate the Gulf region............ Because Qatar has used its "soft power" in the form of diplomacy and international media networks to highlight demands for reform in the region, it has become marked by the Saudi-Emirati axis ......... Doha has proved remarkably resilient to the pressure applied by the blockading countries, which initially expected to bring it back into the fold within weeks of launching the punitive measures........ the Gulf Cooperation Council will end up becoming a shell of its former self as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar branch out seeking regional and international partners who share their political and security objectives.



Two Years Later, Qatar Has Shrugged Off Saudi Embargo Two years ago today, the tottering edifice known as the Gulf Cooperation Council collapsed in a heap when three of its members—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain—announced an embargo on a fourth, Qatar. The troika, joined by Egypt, claimed to be punishing the rulers in Doha for an array of sins, including their relationships with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood........ Their calculation: An embargo would shake Qatar’s economy and weaken its ruling Al Thani family, forcing them, among other things, to fall in line with the Saudi-led Arab phalanx against Iran. 

Is the Blockade of Qatar a Blessing in Disguise? Not so long ago, the quickest means to resolve a dispute between two sovereign states was going to war. This form of intervention has lost favor in the 21st century, but that does not mean that we live in a world of perfect harmony. ........ The conventional armed confrontation is now replaced by a popular strategy called blockade. ....... The hapless countries that have found themselves at the receiving end are the perpetual problem state North Korea, the ever-defiant Iran, and the enormously wealthy microstate of Qatar. ............. The blockading states claim Qatar’s regime is responsible for promoting “terrorism” and “destabilizing the region.” ........ And then there is the issue of Qatar’s sponsorship of the powerful media outlet Al Jazeera. Needless to say, this institution has been singularly responsible for bringing about a seismic transformation in the nature of governance in the region by exposing all sorts of irregularities and political taboos in the murky world of Middle Eastern politics. ........ microstate Qatar, with 2.7 million inhabitants, punches well above its weight in regional and international politics. ......... more states in the region have stood by Qatar than those who have called quits against this small country with a big personality. ....... The blockade allowed Qatar’s regime to engage in massive economic charm offensives in the region and managed to win over new regional powers such as Turkey. Doha also weathered criticism or any possible fallout at the international level by pursuing a vigorous diplomatic campaign, which highlighted that the country has been simply maligned by devious powers and regimes in the region.......

Two years down the line, people on the streets of Qatar argue that the blockade was a blessing in disguise. The isolation brought the Qataris together and infused in them a spirit of national fervor never seen before..... The country is gradually moving away from an immediate dependency on neighbors to a market economy where there is greater reliance on self-sufficiency. Qatar is also energetically opening up new economic linkages with far away powers and economies.



Turkey’s Support for Qatar Goes Beyond Damaged Ties with Saudi Arabia and UAE When Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates shocked the world by declaring an economic blockade on their tiny neighbor Qatar in the summer of 2017, they probably didn’t expect Turkey to come to Doha’s aid so quickly and forcefully........ After all, Turkey’s trade and investment links with Saudi Arabia and the UAE were much larger than its ties with Qatar....... he went all-in with full economic and military aid, enabling Qatar to resist the blockade...... Qatar’s small population of just 2.7 million of which only 12 percent are citizens. ........ Turkey’s support for Qatar has not only damaged its ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE but also motivated these countries to frustrate Turkey’s efforts to increase diplomatic and economic links with other countries throughout the Arab world. 

Six European Countries Join Barter System for Iran Trade France, Germany, and the United Kingdom on Saturday welcomed six new European countries to the INSTEX barter mechanism, which is designed to circumvent U.S. sanctions against trade with Iran by avoiding use of the dollar.


Bankers Are Sick of Choosing Sides Between Qatar and Saudi Arabia For top dealmakers, the Gulf diplomatic standoff isn’t good for business. ........ Executives from HSBC Holdings Plc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other global banks are intensifying efforts to repair ties with Qatar’s finance ministry and sovereign wealth fund, according to interviews with people close to the lenders and Qatar’s government. While the kingdom remains key for business, some bankers regret diverting their attention from Doha after being blindsided when the Saudis delayed the sale of a stake in oil giant Aramco in July, they said. .......... “MBS has changed the rules of the game in terms of Saudi domestic and economic policy, without much sense of what the new rules are,” said Gregory Gause, a professor of international affairs and a Saudi specialist at Texas A&M University. “That is going to discourage investment. His risk-taking on the international scene is similarly going to cause doubts for international investors.” ......... The tide moved in Doha’s favor when Saudi Arabia did an about-face on the Aramco IPO that many banks were counting for big fee payouts ........ Many regional representatives who attended

pulled their neck ties over their badges to conceal their identity, something they didn’t do at Euromoney or the Doha Forum in December

. ......... Qatar is spending $25 billion on infrastructure upgrades this year to prepare for the 2022 World Cup. It’s also building liquefied natural gas capacity to add $40 billion to revenue by 2024, furnishing the $320 billion Qatar Investment Authority with more cash.

The fund is currently eyeing U.S. tech acquisitions

to balance holdings in European bank stocks and London property.



Inching away from Saudi-UAE axis, Jordan restores ties with Qatar Qatar hosts tens of thousands of skilled Jordanian workers whose remittances help the faltering economy back home. ....... Jordan and Qatar announced the restoration of full diplomatic ties by naming their respective ambassadors, two years after Amman downgraded its relations with Doha due to pressure from a Saudi-led block........ Following an economic crisis and popular unrest in June 2018, Qatar rushed an economic aid package to Jordan worth $500m and offered 10,000 jobs for Jordanian citizens to work in Qatar......Qatar already hosts tens of thousands of skilled Jordanian workers whose remittances help the faltering economy back home.......... The move was seen as part of Qatar's "soft power diplomacy" in the region and to court Jordan away from Doha's regional foes. ....... Jordan is under intense pressure from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who attach political conditions to their assistance, such as accepting American plans for ending the "two-state solution" to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. ....... The occupied Palestinian territories of the West Bank and East Jerusalem were part of Jordan when Israel seized them during the 1967 war. Millions of Palestinians remain Jordanian citizens today. 

Qatar To Saudi Arabia: We'd Rather Quit OPEC Than Cut Ties With Iran Or Close Al Jazeera the tiny Persian Gulf monarchy, with just 300,000 citizens. ....... Gas exports have helped Qatar create a big international profile by hosting sporting events including the upcoming 2022 World Cup, mediating regional conflicts, and especially by bankrolling the provocative Al Jazeera TV network. ........ Natural gas exports have allowed Qataris to become the world’s richest people. They’ve used that income to extract themselves from historic dominance by neighboring Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader. ....... Over the years, the Saudis have tried to bring wayward Qatar to heel. In 1996, Riyadh backed a failed coup attempt. Since June 2017, Riyadh joined the UAE in imposing a trade and travel blockade on the maverick monarchy. ........ The embargo has failed to achieve a single one of its strategic goals, which include cutting links with Iran, the country with which Qatar shares its primary natural gas field, and shutting down Al Jazeera. ........

At one time or another, Al Jazeera has lampooned every Arab leader, including the Saudi royal family, making the network a nuisance to ruling elites used to uncritical coverage – with one exception: Al Jazeera reporters are subject to prosecution for treating Qatari elites with the same withering eye. Not surprisingly, the neighbors are unamused.

........ the shale revolution that turned the United States into the world No. 1 oil producer has diluted OPEC’s market power. ........ leaving OPEC is a contrarian move for a small country, and one that signals a high level of self-confidence. ......

Qatar’s departure shows that the tiny monarchy no longer needs OPEC to make itself heard. For that, it’s got Al Jazeera.

at No comments:
Labels: , , , , , ,
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)