The Scary Version

Image via WikipediaI have pushed the thought that elements of the Pakistani army and intelligence played a role in creating and sustaining the safe house for Bin Laden. These are the same elements who attempted to kill Musharraf when he was in power - more than once. These are the same people who got Benazir Bhutto killed.

The Bin Laden Operation

What if that is not true? What if Bin Laden did all this on his own? That would be the scary version.

He picked the right town, obviously. While America spent a decade launching drone attacks in the rugged mountains, he lived his quiet life in a fancy Islamabad suburb. If anything he had shown a knack for out of the box thinking. The 9/11 attack itself was the ultimate act of out of the box thinking. It was so unexpected.

He needed to move money to buy that plot of land, to build himself a fortress. He needed money to safely move in there. And I am pretty sure he had contingency plans in place to get him out of there. If he had had the slightest hint he was being watched, he would have gone elsewhere, somewhere he felt equally safe.

So this guy had resources at his disposal. He had a sophisticated network of well connected people. He had tons of money. He had donors. More than anything else he had his brain. He thought things through. It took America a decade to get him. The mightiest power in human history took 10 full years to zero in on him. You have to give the guy some credit.

And you have to ask, what did he leave behind?

My political instincts tell me the Al Qaeda thunder has rightfully been stolen by the Arabs braving the streets for democracy. I have long advocated draining the swamp instead of just going after mosquitoes. And the military details of this operation are not my specialty, but there is plenty of reason to believe vigilance has to be maintained. All it would take is one attack 1/10th the size of 9/11 to send all actors right back to the drawing board all over again.

Think about it, Bin Laden's final place of hiding was as out of the box and as bold as his most spectacular attack. The guy kept thinking to the very end.

9/11 happened. Madrid happened. London happened. Bali happened. Mumbai happened. It is not like 9/11 happened and that was it. This thing is not exactly over. Vigilance has to be maintained but the best foot forward is to support the democracy movements in the region to the hilt.

The Bin Laden Operation
Barack Said In 2007 He Would Do This
Did Pakistan Know Where Bin Laden Was?
Dead, Dead, Dead
Bin Laden Was In A Huge House
Bin Laden: Dead

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Barack Said In 2007 He Would Do This

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeAug 08, 2007: What Obama Said On Pakistan

If Bin Laden's precise location can be found, then Obama would get in touch with Musharraf to take Bin Laden out. If Musharraf takes more than three minutes, President Obama would take Bin Laden out unilaterally. That is what he said.

Obama knows Musharraf will cooperate. But if he does not, which presidential candidate in her or his right mind would want the US to stand idly by respecting Pakistan's sovereignty? There will be a missile strike and that particular cave will be turned into rubble.

If you understand how autocratic organizations like the Al Qaeda work - they don't hold internal elections - you will understand how fundamentally important it is to take the top guy out. Look at what happened to the Shining Path in Peru after its top guy Gonzalo was captured: it withered away like magic.

The US intelligence agencies have been making a grave mistake in outsourcing the hunt for Bin Laden to Pakistan. Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, described as a state inside a state, is supremely infiltrated by Islamist radicals. That is why when Bill Clinton struck Bin Laden when he was in Afghanistan, Bin Laden had already shifted. Because Bill Clinton made the mistake of first telling Pakistan that he was going to hit Bin Laden because Bin Laden had been located. That information got passed onto Bin Laden. Some top dude in the ISI passed that info to Bin Laden.

Why would you want to repeat that mistake?

That is short term. But in the long term we are looking at a scenario of saying Musharraf has to go, the Saudi king has to go, Mubarak has to go, Gaddafi has to go. Hello democracy.

Did Pakistan Know Where Bin Laden Was?
Dead, Dead, Dead
Bin Laden Was In A Huge House
Bin Laden: Dead

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