This Turn By Nitish Is Meaningful

BBC News हिंदी - जेडीयू ने आख़िरी चरण में बदली रणनीति, बीजेपी असहज? : पांच बड़ी ख़बरें https://t.co/0pepOTJHfE

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 16, 2019

This turn by Nitish Kumar is meaningful. He has not said anything new, but his party's declaration that Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa qualify for a Special Category status by the center is meaningful. There are rumors the BJP is getting less than a majority in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. If that ends up being true, that will be a sure indication the BJP might not come back to power. If those three states gang up and say we will support whoever gives us Special Category status, that would be a game changer. Because that would torpedo the BJP's chances of forming a government even if they are near 250.

Nitish surely is not worried about Bihar. The RJD would be glad to step in should the BJP walk out.

If this is the thought process then that might be an early indication that as Nitish Kumar sees it, the BJP is not getting the majority of seats in UP and Bihar. It has long been said in Indian politics that there never has been an instance when a party lost UP and still formed the government in Delhi.

If the BJP-led NDA is closer to something like 230, it is possible an expanded NDA might demand a non-BJP PM.

Declare Nitish Kumar as PM face, demands JD(U) lawmaker
Nitish Kumar Has Written His Own Sad Twist To His Tale
In Bihar, Nitish Kumar's Party Catalyst For Win: Prannoy Roy's Analysis

This Turn By Nitish Is Meaningful https://t.co/eMVqrlbLOT @NitishKumar @PrashantKishor @JanatadalU

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 16, 2019

Modi's Escape Hatch: Orissa, Telangana, Tamilnadu

Should Modi fall short by a small margin, say he ends up with something like 230 seats and needs about 40 additional seats, he might be able to rope in the regional parties in Orissa, Telangana, and Tamilnadu, none of whom have shown much love for the Congress-led alliance.

But if the BJP-led NDA is closer to 200, then that will be read as a mandate against the Modi government, and then the BJP might be forced to sit in the opposition, likely leading to this being the final time Modi is Prime Minister. 2024 might throw up someone else like Gadkari as the BJP candidate for Prime Minister.

मोदी का विश्व भ्रमण

Opposition poster for the 1866 election. Geary's opponent, Hiester Clymer, ran on a white supremacy platform. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

दुनिया में कोइ देश नहीं है जहाँ भारतीय बड़ी तादाद में ना रहते हों। अमरिका में प्रत्येक शहर में भारतीय रहते हैं। भारत का प्रधान मंत्री सिर्फ देश भितर के लोगों का प्रधान मंत्री हैं ऐसी बात नहीं है। दुनिया के प्रत्येक भारतीय का मोदी पर हक़ बनता है। मेरा ही उदहारण लो। मेरी पैदाइश बिहार की। मैं पला बड़ा हुवा नेपाल में (जहाँ मेरे जैसे मधेसी racist hatred और systemic, institutionalized marginalization and discrimination के receiving end पर हैं)। सालों से मैं रहता हुँ अमरिका में। मेरा जात इंडियन। मेरी पहचान इंडियन। मेरा चेहरा इंडियन। चेहरे पर नंबर प्लेट लगा हुवा है कि ये आदमी इंडियन है। तो मोदी पर मेरा हक़ बनता है कि नहीं? बिलकुल बनता है। अमरिका में काले लोगों की जो दुर्दशा है वो सीधा अफ्रीका से जुड़ा हुवा है। चीन ने जो आर्थिक प्रगति की अफ्रीका को वो करना होगा, तब जा के अमरीका के काले लोगों को इज्जत मिलेगी। भारत प्रगति करेगा तब दुनिया भर के इंडियन आत्म सम्मान पाएंगे।

India's Goal: $50 Trillion

भारत को FDI चाहिए, और थोड़ा बहुत नहीं बहुत बहुत चाहिए। तो वो तो मांगने से मिलता है। घर बैठे बैठे नहीं मिलता है। भारत में गरीबी बहुत ज्यादा है। मैंने मोदी को तीन साल दिए हुवे हैं। तीन साल के अंदर growth रेट को 10% or more बनाओ और उसको २० साल कायम रखो। उसके बाद जो अगले जो आएंगे उनको भी वो बरक़रार रखना है। ३०-४० साल इंडिया को नॉन स्टॉप डबल डिजिट ग्रोथ रेट देने होंगे। तो उसके लिए FDI की सख्त जरुरत है। मोदी मटरगश्ती कर रहे हैं, vacation मना रहे हैं ऐसी बात नहीं है। वो तो काम पर लगे हुवे हैं। और दुनिया घुमने से दिल्ली में काम सुस्त हो गया है ऐसी बात नहीं है। उनका अच्छा टीम है। खुद भी तो टाइम देते हैं। पिछले साल ५० दिन भारत के बाहर रहे। लेकिन ३१५ दिन तो देश के भितर रहे। पडोसी देशों में गए। NorthEast गए।

और FDI वैसे नहीं आती है। अपने साथ टेक्नोलॉजी भी लाती है। अच्छे अच्छे management practices भी लाती है।

काँग्रेस की मजबुरी है कि उनको मोदी का विरोध करना है। मोदी कहे दिन तो काँग्रेस को कहना होगा रात। मोदी कहे  रात तो काँग्रेस को कहना होगा दिन। Knee jerk opposition ----- they don't have the luxury of being a thoughtful opposition like Naveen Patnaik. ये मैं समझता हुँ। मोदी ने अमरिका भ्रमण में भारतीय कपडे पहने। White House गए तो भारतीय कपडे पहने। लेकिन दिल्ली में "सूट बूट" इसलिए पहना कि मेहमान के लिए। खास मेहमान आए हुवे थे। ओबामा के लिए सूट पहन लिया। अच्छा किया। महँगा सुट तो था लेकिन बाद में वो सुट auction हुवा तो बहुत पैसा में auction हुवा। मोदी बनिया --- उसमें भी मुनाफा ही सोंचा! मेहमान की खातिरदारी भारतीय संस्कृति से मेल नहीं खाती क्या?

राहुल गांधी ने कहा "अभी हमारे प्रधान मंत्री भारत भ्रमण पर आए हुवे हैं!" वो opposition में हैं। लोकतंत्र है। Opposition को भी अपना रोल अदा करना है। कर रहे हैं।

मेरे को तो लोभ ये भी है कि मोदी जरा मेरे होमटाउन जनकपुर की ओर भी एक नजर देख दें तो उस शहर का कायापलट हो जाए, उसका भी विकास हो जाए।  दुसरा मुद्दा है नेपाल के मधेसी यो का। दिए तले अंधेरा। नेपाल में भारतीयों को दुसरे दर्जे के नागरिक के रूपमें रहना पड़े ये कैसी लज्जा की बात है भारत के लिए। लेकिन हो यही रहा है। भारत के विश्व शक्ति बनने क्रम में पहला कदम है नेपाल में मधेसीयों को राजनीतिक समानता। कुछ साल पहले नेपाल के एक प्रधान मंत्री ने ४३ लाख मधेसीयों को वोटर लिस्ट पर से फेंक दिया, सालों से संघीयता के मुद्दे पर आनाकानी किए हुवे हैं। ये न्याय है क्या?

मैंने अभी अभी देखा मोदी October में India-Africa Summit करने जा रहे हैं। ५४ अफ़्रीकी देशों के Heads of State दिल्ली आएंगे। मेरा दिल गदगद हो गया। "दोस्ती जो की है, निभानी तो पड़ेगी ही।" वैसे ओबामा दुनिया के सबसे शक्तिशाली पद पर हैं, इतना अच्छा काम किया है, लेकिन फिर भी उनको भी racism झेलना पड़ रहा है। तो वहां मोदी एक रोल खेल सकते हैं, थोड़ा मदत कर सकते हैं। अफ्रीका को democracy और development दो, अपनी दोस्ती निभाओ। जब तक अफ्रीका प्रगति के पथ पर आगे नहीं आता अमरीका में कालों की दुर्दशा होती रहेगी। उनके साथ अच्छा सुलुक नहीं होगा।

Helping Africa is good business. चीन के लोग अब जाके अफ्रीका में रहने लगे हैं। भारत के लोग तो बहुत पहले से रह रहे हैं। अफ्रीका प्रगति करेगा तो भारत से सामान खरीदेगा। अफ्रीका भारत को विश्व शक्ति बनाने में मदत करेगा। अफ्रीका खुद विश्व शक्ति बनेगा।

बिहार में भी विकास चाहिए।

Related articles

• Odisha CM asks ministers to implement poll manifesto
• Cong. leader slams Modi for slashing social sector spending
• Odisha to Spend Rs.50 Crore Annually to Reduce Mother-Child Mortality Rate
• In Note of Dissent, Minister Maneka Gandhi Warns Against Cuts on Welfare Spend
• Draupadi Murmu becomes first woman governor of Jharkhand
• Odisha CM launches mobile App for women security
• Roads Before Welfare: India's Modi Faces Dissent Over Spending Shakeup
• Roads before welfare: Modi faces dissent over spending shakeup
• Modi Goes to China: Great Expectations
• 'Ten Facts a bout U.S. Trade'

Biju Janata Dal And The Land Bill

I kind of like the BJD proposed amendment. Not only it makes political arithmetic sense, it also plain makes logical sense.

मोदी का Land Acquisition
Trying Hard To Understand The Nitish Viewpoint On Land Acquisition
Land Acquisition: मोदी माँग रहे है तो दे दो
Land Acquisition Bill: The Details
Modi Should Be Allowed Land Acquisition



मैं समझने की कोशिश कर रहा हुँ। नवीन कह रहे हैं ---- आप किसान हैं, आप के पास जमीन है, उसका बाजार में भाव ५ लाख है, तो फैक्ट्री बिठाने के हिसाब से कोइ आएंगे तो वो उस जमीन को १५ लाख में खरीदेंगे --- ये मोदी कह रहे हैं ---- नवीन कह रहे हैं, पैसा दो १० लाख, बाँकी के ५ लाख के उसी फैक्ट्री में शेयर दो। ये कोइ बुरा सुझाव नहीं है। ऐसा नहीं हो सकता कि ये फैसला किसान पर छोड़ दो? वो चाहे तो १५ का १५ नगद ले ले --- या १० का नगद और ५ लाख का शेयर ले ले।

Land bill jolt to govt: BJD opposes, AIADMK may follow suit

The Centre’s hopes to pass the contentious land bill took another hit as Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janta Dal (BJD), a party that had earlier supported many government legislations, unequivocally announced on Saturday that it would oppose the bill. ..... J Jayalalitha’s AIADMK, the second-largest party in the Opposition camp after the Congress, is also “inclined to oppose” the land bill that has led different Opposition parties to join hands to dub the government as “anti-farmer”. ...... “We had welcomed the land bill in Lok Sabha. We even said we are happy with it. But happiness doesn’t mean that we will support it. We will oppose the land bill when it comes in Parliament,” Bhartruhari Mahtab, BJD’s Lok Sabha wing chief ...... If the BJD and the AIADMK joins the Opposition ranks against the bill, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) -- even with the help from an array of fence-sitters like the BSP and the NCP -- would not be able to reach the majority mark of 123 in the 244-strong Rajya Sabha. The Opposition strength, including the SP, BJD and the AIADMK, stands at 148, while the entire the NDA is just 69. ...... The BJP is 66 MPs short of majority in a Joint Session of both Houses of Parliament. The Congress has already waged a war against the bill that would make it easier to acquire land for crucial infrastructure projects. ....... The proposed bill exempts projects related to defence, rural housing and power, along with industrial corridors, from the requirement that 80% of the affected landowners must agree to a sale. ...... The stand of the BJD may come as a rude jolt for the government as it had incorporated as many as four demands of the Odisha-based party through amendments to the original bill

We will back land bill if Centre make changes: BJD

the BJD opposed the land acquisition ordinance as it demanded that the land losers should have a stake in projects for which their land is acquired

Land Bill: Government mulls joint session in parliament for legislation as some parties change stance

BJD had walked out of the Lok Sabha the last time the bill was debated, after the government accepted four of nine amendments the party had proposed. ...... "Four of our amendments were accepted but we want an important amendment, giving a stake to landholders in any economic enterprise accruing from acquired land, to be accepted" ...... It has been liaising with 'like-minded parties' Trinamool, AIADMK and the Left to push for the amendment." ..... BJD has 20 MPs in the Lok Sabha. By voting against the bill in both the Houses, BJD may push the government into calling a joint sitting of both the Houses. ..... That appears to be the only way of getting the bill cleared quickly, something the Modi administration wants to achieve as a mark of its ability to get cracking on reform. "If we get stuck on this, so early in our tenure, it will derail everything. Time is of essence," said a senior Cabinet minister. ..... Determined to clear the land bill, the government apparently sees a joint sitting as the only way out.

Jairam Ramesh Sees Secret BJP-BJD Deal on Land Bill

Explaining reasons behind Congress’ opposition to proposed changes in Land Acquisition Act, Ramesh said there were guidelines in the existing law that the Government would return the acquired land if it is lying unused for five years. However, there is no such system in the new law, he pointed out....... Similarly, the mandatory “consent” clause and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) will not be in the new Bill where ownership of land continues to be vested with the Government, he said....... Ramesh said that while the original Act has provision of securing the consent of 80 per cent affected people before land acquisition, the new law will abolish the provision.

Congress wants BJD to oppose land acquisition bill
Centre deciphering Opposition strategy to pass land bill

Amidst indications that the Modi regime would explore the option of a joint Sitting of both houses of Parliament as a last resort for the passage of the land acqusition bill, there are apprehensions within the government that this is easier said than done. ....... The government is keeping an eye on all possible strategies that the Opposition could consider for stalling the bill's passage or rejection in the Rajya Sabha ...... The government was hoping that parties like the Samajwadi Party, BJD and AIADMK, which run state governments, would warm up to the bill. However, with the Janata Parivar merger, the SP may find it difficult to take a stand which is not in line with its allies — the JD(U) and RJD, which are likely to use the bill to target the BJP ahead of the Bihar elections. ...... The Samajwadi Party has 15 MPs, the AIADMK 11 and BJD 7 in the Rajya Sabha. Senior ministers have been reaching out to parties as part of an exercise to garner support for the legislation ...... Parties which may not take an unbending stand against the bill are waiting to see if the government will bring in more changes. "We are expecting more amendments to the bill.

We want the land owner to be made a share holder in economic activity for which the land is acquired

," said BJD's B Mahtab. The government has been arguing that compensation was left to the state government. ........If the Shiv Sena, which had abstained from voting in Lok Sabha, backs the government, the NDA's numbers add up to 395 in a joint sitting of nearly 760 members. However, according to sources, the government is unlikely to act in haste and may focus on bills like GST and black money before taking up the contentious land bill. ........ the Congress launched a website called "zameenwapsi.com" as part of its agitation against the bill.

Related articles

• GST under a cloud as numbers elude NDA
• Janata Parivar announces merger, Mulayam to head new party
• Samajwadi Janata Party formed to take on Narendra Modi's BJP
• Mission 2017: BSP ups ante against Modi, Akhilesh regimes
• Land Bill protests to gain momentum

A Unified Janata Dal Could Become Bigger Than The Congress

But this can not be like Yahoo and Bing getting together to take on Google. There is only one real way to compete with Modi, and that is with development. Mandal-Kamandal is old school. That is not going to work against Modi. He is himself a Mandal category leader. Only Nitish, among all in the Opposition, is equipped to compete with Modi on development. But he has not been able to articulate his Nitishism. Development can not happen in Bihar because Nitish is at the helm, it also has to happen in other states because the party practices a well articulated Nitishism.

It is to be noted though that the one member of the family still in a good shape, the guy in Orissa, was missing from the picture.



Socialist parties in talks to merge; Nitish likely to lead

SP, JD(U), RJD, JD(S), INLD and Samajwadi Janata Party ..... Though the meeting was convened at Mulayam’s official residence here, there are indications that Nitish may be the axis of the alliance. .... Ajit Singh’s RLD and Navin Patnaik’s BJD, however, were absent from the meeting. ...... Nitish did not rule out even the merger of these parties in the future. He, however, said at present the parties will work together with the principle of unity against the BJP. When asked about a possible alliance with the Congress, he said they did not talk about the Congress in the meeting. ...... unemployment has increased under the Narendra Modi regime. “They said they will create crores of jobs in one year. ..... The parties are facing stiff opposition from the BJP at the ground. The INLD, which was hoping to form the government in Haryana, had to go to the Opposition benches again for the third term

Nitish Kumar Hints At 'One Single Party' After Meeting Mulayam, Lalu

emerged not talk of a third front, but the hint that the "Janata parivar" could come together to form a party in the future. ...... the absence of the Left. .... Together the parties that met today have 15 Lok Sabha seats. But in the Rajya Sabha, they have 25

Janata Parivar meets, merger on the cards

“There is a strong possibility we might merge and form one party,” says Nitish ..... during the discussions the Janata Parivar leaders agreed that it was imperative that they came together as the Congress had all but vacated the Opposition space .... on key economic issues, such as the Insurance Bill, the BJP and the Congress were usually together. ..... If a merger does take place, it is likely to be followed by the formation of a joint platform with other regional parties

No decision yet on joining Janata parivar, says Patnaik

He also said that his party would remain equidistant from the Congress and BJP. ..... Patnaik indirectly indicated that the ongoing Central Bureau of Investigation probe into the chit fund scam was politically motivated. .... A BJD MP and a legislator were arrested by the central agency for their alleged complicity in the multi-thousand-crore-rupee chit fund scam. .... Patnaik, however, said that it was their personal matter. “The government or the party has nothing to do with it. The truth will come out,” he said.

Why the Lalu-Mulayam-Nitish alliance may turn out to be a lemon

Like drunks propping each other up, the new Lalu Prasad-Mulayam Singh-Nitish Kumar-Deve Gowda alliance against Narendra Modi is unlikely to hold together for long. .... Their message is "naya saal, nayi party". .... The core of the proposed alliance is thus Lalu, Mulayam and Nitish, who run relatively strong parties built on an OBC base across the two of the biggest states in the Hindi heartland – Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 120 Lok Sabha seats between them. This is where Narendra Modi comprehensively defeated them in May 2014. ...... It is best to designate the Lalu-Mulayam-Nitish get-together as the Lemon alliance – an acronym derived from their initials LMN, which could also be an SMS short-form for Lemon. ..... It has all of 15 MPs in parliament, including ILND’s two, and hardly in a position to take on the BJP. ..... While caste combos will continue to play a subtle role in all elections, the fact is people are breaking out of old straitjackets. Caste arithmetic will not add up as easily in future. ...... a negative alliance against Modi will only work if there is strong anti-incumbency or if the alliance itself has a strong message of hope. But, if anything, it is the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal (United) that face an anti-incumbency mood in their states - after five years and 10 years of rule in UP and Bihar. Modi will be leading a party which will harness this anti-incumbency, if any, in 2017 and 2015. ...... modern elections are turning presidential. ...... In this department, Modi is head and shoulders above the Lemon alliance, especially given their know suspicions about each other. Lalu and Mulayam vowed to fight all elections together in 2009, but after being outshone by the Congress in UP and Bihar, they barely combined for anything. Lalu and Nitish were sworn enemies till last year. ..... The electorate is wise to these opportunistic groupings. It knows what happened to such khichdi alliances in 1997 and 1989. ..... two of the alliance leaders are fit for the geriatric ward, and two are jailbirds, convicted for corruption. Mulayam Singh is 75 and doddering, and Deve Gowda is 81. Lalu is a convicted criminal and so is INLD’s Chautala. That leaves Nitish, 63, as a young knight in shining armour. One more defeat and he too will be consigned to the dustbin of history ..... what Mayawati may be upto with the Congress - not left out of the OBC party. If it's a three-horse coalition race the next time, the advantage may still remain with the most coherent alliance of them all - the BJP's. ..... By 2019, the economy could be into overdrive. Even without heroic reforms by the Modi government, the economic tide will turn, making anti-incumbency a difficult platform from which to take on Modi in 2019. In 2009, five years of a booming economy helped the Congress to coast to victory with 206 seats.

Related articles

• An anti-BJP political formula is brewing in Delhi
• Janata Parivar to oppose Modi government's 'anti-poor' policies
• Why the Lalu-Mulayam-Nitish alliance may turn out to be a lemon
• Non-BJP and non-Congress parties meet in Delhi to build 'common voice'
• No decision yet on joining Janata parivar, says Patnaik
• No Decision Yet on Joining Janata Parivar, Says Patnaik
• BJP gets ready to take on more regional satraps

Federal Front?

English: Pix of the leader of a political party of Poshchim Bangla as shown in the Kakababu animation SOBUJ DWIPER RAJA. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Perhaps Mamata will now make moves to snatch the Opposition Leader role from the Congress. Perhaps she will bring together Jayalalita and Patnaik and form a Federal Front that will lay claim to the Opposition role.

Related articles

• Mamata Model: Paranoia and vote-bank politics
• Jayalalithaa rings up Mamata
• BJD, AIADMK take U-turn, warm up to BJP-led NDA ahead of poll results
• Post-poll survey: Modi-led NDA may get 270-282 seats, UPA 92-102
• Secular parties should join hands and elect Mamata Banerjee as their leader: Rashid Alvi
• Is Narendra Modi's future safe with Naveen Patnaik and Jayalalithaa?
• Congress wants secular parties to unite, Mamata Banerjee as prime minister
• Opinion: BJP's danger mark is 180-200 seats

Jayalalita And Patnaik Supporting Modi Ends Third Front Possibilities

Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik - TeachAIDS (Photo credit: TeachAIDS)

Leaders from the parties of both Jayalalita and Patnaik have been talking favorably of Modi. I think that is a sign the Third Front that did not materialize pre poll will not materialize post poll either. Being anti-Modi is not enough ammunition. 

This signalling has happened before the formal results are out. That is a sign the exit polls and other surveys might not be off like in 2004 and 2009. 

But we still have to wait for May 16. 

Related articles

• BJD, AIADMK take U-turn, warm up to BJP-led NDA ahead of poll results
• Naveen Patnaik Doesn't Rule Out Support For BJP
• Looking at exit polls, question is where is the Narendra Modi tsunami or even wave?
• Standing alone for the first time, Patnaik battles 'Modi wave'
• Patnaik non-committal on supporting NDA
• Jaitley Praises Modi's Energy, Modi Praises 'Power of Bharat Mata'
• BJP upbeat as post poll surveys show Modi wave, Congress says wait for May 16
• Narendra Modi not good for country, says Naveen Patnaik
• Will Not Support Modi for Prime Ministership: Naveen Patnaik
• Modi Meets With Top BJP Leaders to Discuss Post-Results Plans