Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts

Sunday, February 02, 2025

2: Mexico

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Trump, Musk, Mexico

How the House of Trump Was Built Confidence Man: The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America” ......... “a narcissistic drama seeker who covered a fragile ego with a bullying impulse.” ........ Trump relished fights with Republicans more than with Democrats, Haberman explains, because he prefers battles over “interpersonal dynamics such as loyalty and respect” over ideology or policy, of which he cares little and knows less. ......... the political establishment dealt with Trump the only way it knew how — with lots and lots of paper. ....... From Trump’s perspective, the Mueller investigation constituted the “ultimate showdown” against his deep-state enemies, Baker and Glasser write, meaning “the Democrats, the F.B.I., the intelligence agencies, the news media, the State Department, the Pentagon, the career civil service, the establishment writ large, fellow Republicans who had never fully accepted him. In other words, Washington.” ......... Not even the Constitution fazes Trump, whose recent call for the document’s “termination” is the ultimate battle against paper. ......... “These folks don’t get it that when they come after me, people who love freedom rally around me,” he declared. “It strengthens me.” Trump always tries to turn paper fights into personality fights and then rallies people to defend him. For Trump, personality beats paper, and the support of his people beats everything. ......... “The psychological state of the world’s most powerful man was a source of never-ending speculation, commentary and concern in a way that simply had no parallel in American history” ........ the son of a Trump Organization executive who recalls the first time the future president fired off a tweet on his own, without staff help. “He later compared the moment to the scene in the movie ‘Jurassic Park,’ ” Haberman writes, “when dinosaurs realize they can open doors themselves.” Apparently the secret to writing a Trump best seller is to compare him to an angry, carnivorous beast that terrifies little kids. ......... Even an assault on the Capitol is acceptable if the opponents arrayed against them are not just wrong but wicked. .......... Marjorie Taylor Greene, the QAnon-friendly Republican House member from Georgia who has minimized the Capitol riot as “Witch Hunt 2.0,” is one of Draper’s main examples. First Greene blamed the violence of Jan. 6 on antifa infiltrators, and later she excused it because the Declaration of Independence encouraged the people to overthrow tyrants. She has taken her statements even further of late, telling a Republican gathering in New York that if she and Steve Bannon had organized the attack on the Capitol, it would have succeeded, and it would have been armed. She later dismissed the remark as a “sarcastic joke,” but Draper emphasizes how even “her most outlandish rhetoric has become G.O.P. talking points.” ......... the “emotional kinetics” that would compel so many people to gather in Washington on a single day and commit violence upon the seat of American democracy. ......... He changed America by revealing it.

What’s the Key to Understanding Donald J. Trump? Start With Queens. “Confidence Man,” Maggie Haberman’s biography of the former president, argues that it’s essential to grasp New York’s steamy, histrionic folkways. . Trump has called her “a crooked H[illary] flunky” and “an unprofessional hack” while giving her endless interviews, including three for this book. ....... Haberman’s thesis is that you can’t really understand Donald Trump unless you’re familiar with the steamy, histrionic folkways of New York’s political and construction tribes. She devotes nearly half her book to his life before the presidency. “The dynamics that defined New York City in the 1980s stayed with Trump for decades,” Haberman writes. “He often seemed frozen in time there.” ........ Trump’s use of phrases like “the Blacks” and “the gays” brings back memories of my grandmother denigrating “the Irish” who lived next door. ........ “I can invite anyone for dinner,” Trump said after his inauguration in 2017. But he remained an outer-borough brat, intimidated by elites. As president, he threw tantrums when he thought people were lecturing or talking down to him. In an infamous meeting with the Joint Chiefs at the Pentagon, “Trump knew that he was being told something he did not fully comprehend,” Haberman writes, “and instead of acknowledging that, he shouted down the teachers.” .......... Sharpton expressed admiration for Trump’s manner: “If Trump had been born Black, he would have been [the boxing promoter] Don King. … Because both of them — everything was transactional.” .......... He traversed the commercial arc of the past 40 years — moving from (failed) business mogul to celebrity to “brand,” just as American free enterprise moved from the production of steel, to casino games on Wall Street, to celebrity “influencers” on reality TV. .........

He wasn’t a very good businessman, but he played one on “The Apprentice,” which was how most Americans met him.

.......... An Iowa man explained his reason for supporting Trump: “I watched him run his business.” ......... Trump found his true calling when he started selling his name to foreigners who wanted to put it on buildings. He peddled products like Trump wine and Trump Steaks, and scams like Trump University, to a gullible public seeking gilt by association. .......... numerous occasions when Trump lacked the stomach to sack staffers face to face ............ Trump resorted to an old New York modus, backstabbing and rumor-mongering and humiliation, to get Kelly to resign. ......... Trump “enjoyed the chaos of [his staff] fighting with one another” ......... He learned how to stay one step ahead of the sheriff. This was, and remains, his greatest skill. ........ Trump accepted a $20 million Super PAC contribution from the billionaire Sheldon Adelson to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. ......... Trump understood that the best defense was, at times, to be offensive. ........... He knew he could stiff his lawyers and the small businesspeople who were his subcontractors. “Do you know how much publicity these people get for having me as a client?” ......... he deployed words with a litigator’s precision ....... He has created a brutish new standard for American politics, and put a terrible dent in our democracy. .......... We will be very lucky, indeed, if he doesn’t prove our downfall.




Americans Are Realizing Tesla Isn’t the Only Electric Car many of the best electric wheels on the market today are not made by Musk........ The new competition makes Musk’s recent role as the town crier for the red-pilled online right especially puzzling and, for his car company, perilous. ........ perceptions of Tesla have been falling steadily since May, shortly after Musk began his bid for Twitter; between October and November, the period when Musk took ownership of Twitter, sentiment among Democrats toward Tesla plummeted, while favorability among Republicans rose slightly. ....... Tesla’s sales and profits remain strong, its production capacity keeps ramping up, and it’s likely to benefit greatly from clean-vehicle tax credits passed in the Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed in August. But its success could get sidelined by Musk’s tweets. ........ “I don’t care if you’re selling pizza or popcorn or whatever you sell — getting into politics with customers never wins” ........... With such great alternatives that carry none of Musk’s political baggage, why does he keep acting as if customers had no choice — as if he were the only game in town? ......... At its towering peak, last fall, Musk’s car company hit a stock market valuation of more than a trillion dollars, greater than the combined value of the five largest automakers in the world. Tesla looked unstoppable. .......... Then, inexplicably, Musk turned to Twitter and pushed Tesla off a cliff. This year, as he sold tens of billions of dollars of Tesla shares to finance the Twitter deal and seemed to stake his reputation on taming the squabbles roiling one of the most divisive places online, Tesla’s shares plummeted by more than 60 percent. Its slump is deeper than that of most of its rivals and far more than that of the S&P 500, which is down about 19 percent for the year. ....... Unlike just about every other carmaker, Tesla spends almost nothing on advertising. Musk is and has long been the company’s sole marketer and chief evangelist, the main force driving the world’s desire to buy Teslas. And so any alteration in his cultural standing will affect the company’s standing, too. His time running Twitter has been “a massive brand destruction for Musk and for Tesla” .........

As Remote Workers Flock to Mexico City, Airbnb and Housing Prices Soar American and Europeans are using Airbnb to find long-term rentals in Mexico’s capital, pushing housing costs higher and, critics say, forcing out local residents. .......... The flow of foreigners has yet to slow down, causing housing costs to rise, displacing residents and upending the fabric of neighborhoods. ........ Some units soon appeared on Airbnb — at rates more than four times the monthly rent — and new neighbors, mostly speaking English, now fill the hallways. ......... the kind of comfort a salary paid in dollars or euros can afford. ......... landlords taking advantage of record demand for long-term stays on platforms like Airbnb ....... threatening to make large swaths of the city, where the average monthly salary is $220, unaffordable to many locals. ........ remote workers are leading to the “forced displacement of families.” ......... English speakers pour out of cafes and, on Sundays, cantinas are packed with young people in sports jerseys, the televisions switched from soccer to American football. ........ The tour includes preparing tamales from handpicked ingredients and floating along the neighborhood’s famous network of ancient canals. .



Twitter Users Report Widespread Service Interruptions The issues surfaced several days after Elon Musk said he had shut down one of the company’s major data centers. .

Monday, June 10, 2019

Trump Will Pull A Mexico On China

This is what happens when you elect a reality TV star to the highest office in the land. The guy watches TV all day. He gets his intelligence briefings from the television set.

If you want to understand the China-US trade war, just treat North Korea as a case study. Trump's Mexico stunt was a signal to the Chinese. Look, guys, I need a deal. I can't not have a deal. Give me the cosmetics. I need some headlines.

We are about to enter phase two of the art of the deal. Trump is going to send the most amazing negotiator in the world to the negotiation table. Already a Xi-Trump dinner has been scheduled.

The roller coaster ride will end up in much of the same old, same old. And Trump would like to thank the farmers in Iowa for putting him on TV.



A Bad Scenario For Trump
The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June
Trump And Xi Should Cut A Deal In Japan
Mueller Drops A Bomb
A Sanders-Warren Ticket
Donald Trump Is Messing Up A Good Thing
5G Challenges US Hegemony
Brexit, Aexit, And Trump
Understanding China (2)
Trade War Commentaries
Trade War: Intellectual Property
Trade War Endgame: Other Scenarios
Trade War Endgame Scenarios: Look At Canada, And North Korea For Hints
The US And The Chinese Economies Are Super Well-Connected
Trade War Endgame Scenarios



Trump threatens new tariffs over a deal that Mexico says doesn’t exist According to Mexico, the two countries didn't agree to much of anything new.
AP: Donald Trump’s Deputies ‘Surprised’ by His Win on Mexico and Migration

Monday, June 03, 2019

Real Donald Jerry Seinfeld Trump?



We look for grand strategy. There is none. People accuse Trump of lying: "Four lies in one tweet!" Trump is not a liar, but a bullshitter. A bullshitter is such a habitual liar, he does not know, he does not care he is lying. If you know Trump, he is a joke. If you don't know him, he is a fascist. Hitler was a joke in 1920s Germany. He was considered a clown.

Trump won 2016 by spending very little money. As late as August he was way behind in the polls.

It is funny until it is not funny. Real lives are at stake.

A fascist intimidation of Mueller and Pelosi is on full public display. Ken Starr did pronounce Bill Clinton guilty and recommend impeachment to the Congress. Mueller's logic that he cannot pronounce guilt was not applied in his statement to the media. He could not prosecute, but he could pronounce guilt. But he was intimidated. He made it clear he has no desire to appear before Congress. He does not want to be at the receiving end of fascist harangues. A guy who was the top law enforcement officer of the country is running intimidated. That shows Trump is not funny. He is dangerous.

Pelosi's intimidation is on full public display. The moment Hillary lost the election in 2016 is when she fainted on TV. And she fainted a few days after Trump said in a debate with her about rape in the military: "Whichever genius came up with the idea of women serving in the military!"

That is extreme emotional intelligence but going in the dark direction. He swatted every Republican competitor in the race with a phrase or two. There was Little Marco. Bush was a shame to his family.

He did the same to the voters. You are angry? Let me tap into that.

That fountain of anger has stayed with him. Step back and look objectively. Is he not doing everything he can to push the US economy and the global economy into a Grand Depression? There is a cliff and he knows it. Once he manages to push the global economy into a Great Depression, it might take anyone a decade to turn things around. But the point is, if more people are going to be angrier, his support base is going to expand. That is what he is counting on. Yes, there is a strategy. Those who say Trump has no strategy are in denial.

Fascist intimidation is working. Pelosi has until October. After that, the presidential campaign sucks up all the oxygen in the room.

The country is in meltdown mode. Steve Bannon and Donald Trump both are looking for a "hard Brexit" for America. Britain wants a divorce with Europe. America wants a divorce with the world.

Are we moving towards a WTO minus the United States? Will that be as harmless as a Trans-Pacific Partnership minus the US? Experts tell us trading blocs are no solution. They were a feature of the Great Depression of the 1930s.

These are dangerous times. This trade war is not a China-US war. It affects every country. Every country needs to speak up.






Andrew Yang: The Only One With A Solution
In The News (3)
In The News (2)
A Bad Scenario For Trump
In The News (1)
The Possible Outline Of A Deal Between Xi And Trump In June
Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?



CIA admits role in 1953 Iranian coup The CIA has publicly admitted for the first time that it was behind the notorious 1953 coup against Iran's democratically elected prime minister Mohammad Mosaddeq, in documents that also show how the British government tried to block the release of information about its own involvement in his overthrow...... Britain, and in particular Sir Anthony Eden, the foreign secretary, regarded Mosaddeq as a serious threat to its strategic and economic interests after the Iranian leader nationalised the British Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, latterly known as BP. But the UK needed US support. The Eisenhower administration in Washington was easily persuaded....... Mosaddeq's overthrow, still given as a reason for the Iranian mistrust of British and American politicians, consolidated the Shah's rule for the next 26 years until the 1979 Islamic revolution. It was aimed at making sure the Iranian monarchy would safeguard the west's oil interests in the country....... One document describes Mosaddeq as one of the "most mercurial, maddening, adroit and provocative leaders with whom they [the US and Britain] had ever dealt". The document says Mosaddeq "found the British evil, not incomprehensible" and "he and millions of Iranians believed that for centuries Britain had manipulated their country for British ends". Another document refers to conducting a "war of nerves" against Mossadeq.....

Mosaddeq epitomised a unique "anti-colonial" figure who was also committed to democratic values and human rights

..... there was never really a fair compromise offered to Mosaddeq, what they wanted Mosaddeq to do is to give up oil nationalisation and if he'd given that of course then the national movement would have been meaningless....... The basic facts are widely known to every school child in Iran

Friday, May 31, 2019

Will The Trade War Force A New Equilibrium?



The pain from the trade war has only just started. And so the two sides might feel like there is some wiggle room, that they can afford to wait a little. But in a year things might look different. If the two sides stay at only increased tariffs for a year or so, that is one thing. But if there is escalation and the US tries to kill Huawei and China clamps down on its rare earth minerals exports, we will move into the territory of unintended consequences.

High tech is not made for self-sufficiency. Only when countries and companies come together can privacy and security issues be tackled. And even then it is hard. But countries going solo is simply not an option. In the field of tech and innovation, the more cross-pollination the better.

Since the US has similar beef with Europe, among others, you could see some realignment.



There is a great chance that a protracted trade war will lead to major domestic political complications for Donald Trump. The impeachment train is independent of the trade war train. The impeachment might or might not happen, but the investigations surely will.

That is not to say China's capacity for pain is substantially greater. A full-fledged trade war could lead to mass unrests. But there are numerous steps to that stage. The markets will jitter and react to every step in between and that will roil the political spheres.

If both sides decide to stay on this side of sanity and do engage in a trade tussle but not a full-blown trade war, then that could lead to a new equilibrium, both between the two powers, and also the powers of the world.

American exceptionalism has never been the same as white supremacist thinking. Every country is unique. In that way, America is also exceptional.

The march towards a new equilibrium is not going to be pain-free, but it need not be too disruptive. The primary hope is that the two powers cut a deal and spare the global economy unnecessary hiccups. The secondary hope is that they don't go too far in their tussle and stay on this side of sanity.



In The News (7)
In The News (6)
In The News (5)
Trump And Xi Should Cut A Deal In Japan
China In Latin America
In The News (4)
Mueller Drops A Bomb
In The News (3)
In The News (2)
In The News (1)
A Sanders-Warren Ticket
Donald Trump Is Messing Up A Good Thing
5G Challenges US Hegemony
India 2050: Amitabh Kant
Brexit, Aexit, And Trump
African Economic Union
Understanding China (2)
Trump's Prospects In 2020
Understanding China
Political Fallout For Xi
Made In China 2025
Trade War: The Spiral Down Scenario
Three Crises: China, Iran, DC Two Out Of Three: Kamala, Andrew, Pete
Modi 2.0 And The 5G Question
Trade War Commentaries
One Million Uighurs
The Mighty Dollar
India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO
2020: The Year Of The Social Democrat
Andrew Yang: Universal Basic Income, Elizabeth Warren: Wealth Tax
Trade War: Intellectual Property
Trade War Endgame Scenarios: Look At Canada, And North Korea For Hints
The US And The Chinese Economies Are Super Well-Connected
Trade War Endgame Scenarios
US China Trade War: A Meeting Of The Hot And Cold Fronts



Trump’s trade wars have cost the stock market $5 trillion and counting: Deutsche Bank
Trump's threat of Mexico trade war sends markets lower
Trade War Starts Changing Manufacturers in Hard-to-Reverse Ways

The new front in Trump’s trade war could cost consumers at least $93 billion But the figures don’t take into account all the impact: That’s because in the critical auto industry, many parts crisscross borders multiple times....... “Production processes would have to be changed in substantial ways to reduce the impact of the tariffs, reducing productivity in a significant way,” said Carlos Capistran, Canada and Mexico economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “This could eventually lead many firms that currently produce in Mexico to relocate to the U.S., significantly impacting growth in Mexico.”..... vehicles are the top U.S. imports from Mexico, worth $93 billion last year. They are followed by electrical machinery ($64 billion), machinery ($63 billion), mineral fuels ($16 billion) and medical instruments ($15 billion) ..... “The big question at the end of the day though is can we really fight two trade wars at the same time?”

Trade war could trigger a ‘global financial crisis,’ says ex-China central bank chief The former central bank chief also attributed recent weakness in the yuan to the market’s reaction to trade tensions, while noting that Beijing would not devalue the currency in response. He said that fundamentals, such as economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, support a stable yuan...... “It can be said, that the U.S. this time has at the wrong time, fought a wrong war, and chosen a wrong opponent” ...... it might be America’s greatest mistake since World War II, or even the country’s founding, all out of unwillingness to accept China as a rising power........ the trade tensions could last 30 years or more, especially since he expects the U.S. will keep on with its investigations — even if a deal is reached in the near term. ...... “I’m confident that time, reason and truth are on our side,” he said. “Our Chinese people will most certainly win, peace will most certainly win.”

John Negroponte: Trump’s new tariff on Mexico is ‘bad politically and bad economically’ “I think it’s both bad politically and bad economically and I don’t think it’s really going to help solve the immigration problem, either, which is what Mr. Trump said he’s trying to attack” ...... U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, a Republican who represents Iowa, slammed the move. He called it a “misuse of presidential tariff authority.”

Shares of US automakers plunge because they have major production in Mexico The big three automakers each have billions of dollars at stake due both production and suppliers in Mexico.....Shares of General Motors, Fiat Chrysler and Ford dropped in trading Friday. ...... Fiat Chrysler dropped 4.9% while General Motors was down 4.5% and Ford skidded 3.1%...... tariffs on Mexico’s imports “threaten the jobs of tens of thousands of Americans here in the United States.” .... GM and Fiat Chrysler import 29% and 24%, respectively, of the total parts for its cars and trucks from Mexico. Ford has the second highest total imported vehicles from Mexico at 17% ...... the host of auto industry suppliers at risk to tariffs on Mexico, including Aptiv, Adient, Dana, Lear, Visteon, Goodyear Tire & Rubber and BorgWarner.



Trump’s trade war polls badly in key states like Pennsylvania, threatening his support for 2020
Surprise Mexican tariffs hurt China agreement chances: ‘How can you trust Trump to honor a deal?’

The US slipped to third place in a ranking of most competitive economies Singapore’s immigration laws, advanced technological infrastructure, availability of skilled labor and efficient ways to set up new businesses helped it advance to the top..... For the first time in nine years, Singapore surpassed the United States and Hong Kong to clinch the title of the world’s most competitive economy ...... With regard to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, Bris said he “would call it a tantrum in the sense that it is hurting companies in the United States more than in any other country.”...... Indonesia, in particular, leapfrogged 11 places to become the 32nd most competitive economy in the world. Thailand also advanced five places to the 25th position.



France’s health-care system was ranked as the world’s best—Here’s how it compares with the US’ With the Democrats pushing for a government-funded model and President Donald Trump campaigning on repealing Obamacare without a clear alternative, Americans are considering what kind of health care system they may want.



Ray Dalio warns China restricting rare earth metals would be ‘major escalation’ of trade war
China is establishing an ‘unreliable entities’ list that will include companies and people “Foreign enterprises, organizations and individuals that do not comply with market rules, violate the spirit of contract, block or cut supplies to Chinese firms with non-commercial purposes, and seriously damage the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, will be added to the list of unreliable entities”

Cramer: Trump no longer cares if his China policies hurt American businesses That tanked the shares of a group of chipmakers — Qualcomm, Skyworks Solutions, Broadcom, Micron, and Xilinx — as much as 7.3% ...... Walmart has warned that it will have to raise its prices if Trump goes through with his promises to slap another 25% tariff on $300 billion, on top of the existing $200 billion, worth of Chinese imports...... he’s more concerned about the strong American dollar’s negative impact on the chain’s international sales.

Stocks slump after US expands trade war to Mexico



As U.S.-China tensions escalate, the trade war has morphed into a deeper, harder conflict the conflict with China has widened beyond the original trade-based issues..... Officials on both sides of the Pacific have begun to portray the U.S.-China relationship in nationalistic and emotion-charged terms that suggest a much deeper conflict. ...... Recently, for example, a private group of American economists and trade experts with long-standing experience in China traveled to Beijing, expecting their usual technical give-and-take with Chinese government officials........ Instead, a member of the Chinese Politburo harangued them for almost an hour, describing the U.S.-China relationship as a “clash of civilizations” and boasting that China’s government-controlled system was far superior to the “Mediterranean culture” of the West, with its internal divisions and aggressive foreign policy..... Nothing short of a deal struck directly by the two leaders is likely to avert new rounds of punches and counter-punches over economic and financial ties ...... whether either leader is interested in a stand-down is unclear....... China.. will probably “hunker down and try to get by until either the second term of the Trump administration or the incoming new administration.” ..... the domestic politics, for now, seem to favor conflict, not compromise. ...... The political risk for Trump from potential Democratic opponents in 2020 isn’t from hitting China too hard, but treading too softly or coming away with a weak deal...... the best one might hope for is a temporary truce, and even that will be hard to come by if Trump keeps piling on the pressure. ..... Already one in five U.S. firms operating in China say they face increased inspections and slower customs clearances ........ Beijing also could spur boycotts of popular American products such as Apple iPhones or curtail tourism to the United States, which would be particularly painful for states such as California. And American universities already are fretting about a potential drop-off in full-tuition-paying Chinese students...... Boeing, the single biggest American exporter to China .. Sales to China last year accounted for more than 20% of the company’s commercial aircraft revenue. ...... the next escalation could come in mid-August. That’s when the Commerce Department's 90-day reprieve for Huawei runs out and the Chinese start to find out how long and well Huawei can manage without key Android software updates from Google, as well as crucial chips and other hardware from American suppliers. ..... the possibility of a limited trade deal by fall ..... they’ll need to reset the tone a little bit and try to manage a de-escalation” of the trade war



China Has Rare Earths Plan Ready to Go If Trade War Deepens





There are temples and shrines everywhere – honouring Gods and deities – but none more important than Brahma, the creator, Vishnu, the preserver and Shiva, the destroyer. It’s also the land of the Ramayana and the Mahabharata – echoes of which have reverberated across Southeast Asia. And on the Ganges plain, you can trace the life and death of the Buddha – a vital bond with Southeast Asia’s 150 million or so Buddhists........ India’s US$9.449 trillion economy (currently the third-largest in Purchasing Power Parity terms) and a 7.3 per cent GDP growth rate (the fastest among the G20 nations)..... with China becoming increasingly heavy-handed, Southeast Asia desperately needs India to play a larger role in our future – economics and business is just the beginning.

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Trade War Endgame Scenarios: Look At Canada, And North Korea For Hints

Trump creates a crisis where there was none. The trade deal with Canada costs "us billions and billions of dollars and must be torn apart," or something along those lines. People get worried. Because, I guess, you do need trade. Jobs are at stake. In this day and age, how do you walk away from trade with your neighbor? Step two is he sends the top negotiator in the world to the negotiating table. As per Donald Trump, that would be him. Step three is, you end up with more or less the same deal that you had before, with slight tweaks. He claims victory. And that is the key point. That "victory" is important to him. There was no victory. You negotiated more or less the same deal that was in place before. What victory!

That was also the playbook on North Korea. He creates a crisis. He goes to the UN and threatens to wipe out North Korea from the map of the earth. There are newspaper articles about how long it might take a North Korean missile to hit Los Angeles. Step two is he sends the top negotiator in the world to the negotiating table. As per Donald Trump, that would be him. You get the drama in Hanoi. Nothing happens. He claims victory. And that is the key point. That "victory" is important to him. There was no victory. The whole world could see in real time there was no victory. No, North Korea did not agree to denuclearize. The whole world saw that part on live television. But then the difference between a bullshitter and a liar is a liar knows he is lying.

If this is the playbook also on China, and one is hard pressed to think any other playbook is even available, then we are in the first phase. We are in crisis. There might be a 2008 repeat if this goes too far. We might see a prolonged recession. Prices might shoot up. Entire sectors of the economy might get wiped out. Rember the missile hitting Los Angeles? We are in that territory right now. But do not be surprised if Donald Trump pulls a rabbit out of the hat when he meets Xi Jinping next month in Japan. You never know. We might have a "victory" on our hands.

This is what international relations given the reality TV spin look like. There is drama. There might not be suspense. But there is drama.





Thursday, January 24, 2019

Why The Wall Is Stupid, Cruel And Dumb

Let's start with stupid.

That is like saying, I am against the death penalty, but if you are going to do it anyway, let me explain to you why giving someone an electric shock at 150 volts for two hours is a really, really bad idea. They will still be alive at the end of those two hours. And, in the meantime, you just engaged in torture. Which is inhuman.

The Wall idea is stupid. It will not stop people. It will not stop drugs. It will not stop criminals. The only thing it will do is give legitimacy to racist demonizations of people from the South. Or maybe that is precisely the idea. The Wall is but a hate project.

The cruel part is explained by the lady standing in the New York harbor. That lady in green is beckoning the persecuted of the world to come hither, come now. America is supposed to take people who have nowhere else to go to. It is the oldest modern democracy of some size. The cruelty is not just towards those who seek asylum. It is also towards the very idea of America. Trump wants to be the new Founding Father to America. Guess what, democracy did not work. Let's now switch to fascism.

Dumb, as opposed to stupid?

Japan suffered for decades, then it realized it really needs to open up to immigration if it wants a vibrant economy. And it has been opening up. Immigration is not America doing favors. Large scale immigration is the only solution to America's Social Security crisis. It is the only way to keep the American economy vibrant.

But then Hitler needed to torch the parliament building. Trump needs to push America into a Great Depression to realize his dream of becoming president for life.

The stand to not fund the Wall must be taken. The longer Trump slugs it out, greater the chances Trump will lose both the Senate and the White House in 2020, if America is still a democracy. He might lose the White House well before that. Which means, when he has lost the Senate, he gets impeached. Taking the stand against the Wall is the right thing to do. It is also the right political thing to do.



Thursday, November 17, 2016

The Racist Ideology Is Obviously Troubling

Some of these guys who are now about to get into plum positions in the White House hold unapologetic racist views.

They, frankly, would like to go back to some era when America was the only country with skyscrapers. If you try too hard you might end up in an era with no smartphones. Such precision carries the Chinese threat.

They are a perfect match to the Chinese who were the leading country in the world in 1200. There are Chinese who do fantasize about going back to that era. They have a name for it, One Belt One Road.

For much of human history, except for the past 500 years, China and India were the leading economies on the planet.

But economies are not supposed to be ego massages! ("Mine is bigger than yours!") They are about families and livelihoods.

Unlike war economies are supposed to be win win propositions. The only valid ideology is the ideology of human equality.

Anti immigration has been the biggest unfair trade practice in the world. Goods and services can move around, money can move around, technology can move around, why not people?

Nobody really wants to deport Mexicans. The American economy will quite literally grind to an absolute halt if all Mexicans leave. They know that. The anti Mexican rhetoric is a tactic to keep the Mexicans working at below minimum wage. It is about cheap labor. At one point in American history there was similar anti Chinese rhetoric. They needed cheap labor to build railroads.

Racism is a tool of power. That is why it is strongest in places like the US Senate, Wall Street, and the liberal mecca Hollywood.  

This is a globalized world. America is not an island. Minus Mexico it is not even a continent.  

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Whose Job Is It?

Donald Trump went all the way to New Mexico to denounce the Republican Latina governor of the state for "not doing her job."

I wonder if he thinks the wall is her job. That there is no wall means she is not doing her job.

New Mexico is a border state, is it not?