Barackface: Manmohan Singh

Showing posts with label Manmohan Singh. Show all posts

Friday, July 03, 2015

Advani's Ghost And Nitish

English: cropped photograph of L K Advani with Hillary Clinton outside his residence. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Today, what L.K. Advani has said — that he is not confident that the Emergency cannot return — is not without reason.

Let's start with the fact that there is absolutely no chance of the emergency being imposed again.

So why did Advani warn of it? He was trying to get attention. News mein aana tho unko. Ek saal se news mein nahin aaye the. Suna suna sa lag raha tha. And maybe he never made peace with the fact that Modi, not Advani, became Prime Minister. Which is weird. Advani as the BJP PM candidate would have likely seen a Third Front government, possibly under Mulayam, who would have promptly taken India down from the Manmohan Singh rate of growth to the old Hindu rate of growth.

I worry for Nitish. You can't not respect the people's mandate. The people of Bihar gave a clear mandate to Modi last year. That is why Modi is in power in Delhi. Minus Bihar that would not have been possible. And that mandate lasts five years. So Nitish should not be second guessing the people of Bihar.

If Nitish does not get to fight the 100 seats his party already has right now, and Laloo wakes up the old jhagada like there was before he "drank poison" and settled on Nitish as CM candidate, and if Narendra Modi decides to give two full weeks to Bihar right before the elections, Nitish is toast.

Kya Advani Advani kar rahe hain? Is he not the mastermind of the Babri Mosque demolition?

The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?

Friday, June 26, 2015

Lalit Modi Who?

English: Image of Narendra Modi at the World Economic Forum in India (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

My first thought was, if you are attacking both Sushma Swaraj and Vijayaraje Scindia at the same time, it has got to be a sexist attack. And if the attacks are coming from both inside the party and outside, then confirmed, this is a sexist attack.

Then they drag Narendra Modi in. That is how media gathers eyeballs. You build someone up. Then you break them down. You get eyeballs both ways.

I don't have time to be reading sludge. This is going to be the first article I read on the topic.

Return of the scandals: Where does PM Narendra Modi go from here?

No one quite expected the country to transform suddenly and shake off the legacy of the past. But there was a widespread expectation that since Modi was 'clean' and 'strong' - as opposed to Manmohan Singh who was 'clean' but 'weak', the government would remain clean. This is what the PM capitalised on when he said the absence of scams was a sign 'ache din' had arrived during the first anniversary celebrations. ....... Irrespective of the rhetoric, both Congress and BJP have been closely enmeshed with capital. Democratic politics as we practice, needs money. Elections are expensive business. Politicians accumulate wealth which they invest in businesses, or outsource to certain businessmen to manage. Businessmen hope they have backed the right horses and when the time comes, they can reap rewards for their investment. This is not specific to India, but has been an established fact across the world. Quid pro quo exists. ......... The question is if political systems are able to institute a degree of transparency (for instance, make public all the funding that is received or have state funding for parties in elections); regulation (for instance, restrict the amount of funding; keep close track of transactions; legalise lobbying); reduce the extent of discretionary decision making in government; and have strong avoidance of conflict of interest laws..........To give credit where its due, the Modi sarkar has recognised that it is in natural resource allocation that discretion and crony capitalism is most acute - they have made an effort to correct this partly through cleaner spectrum and coal allocations. But there are a range of other sectors where discretion is rampant. Cricket is an obvious example where a deeply unhealthy relationship exists between politics as money and glamour - the PM himself is a part of this nexus as a former president of the Gujarat Cricket Association. The line between encouraging a business friendly environment (a stated goal of this government) and between encouraging select, friendly businessmen is a thin one. And BJP, like its predecessors, under the garb of the former, does not shy away from doing the latter.

Narendra Modi goes from 7.5% to 10% --- that is where.

So I read the article. I still don't know what the accusation is. Time waste kar diya.

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

The Economist's Coverage Of Modi Anniversary: Poor

English: 1937 Deng Xiaoping in NRA uniform. 1937年，任八路军总部政治部副主任的邓小平。 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bill Clinton ended up giving America the longest peacetime economic expansion in history. Were people able to see that coming in year 1? In year 2? In year 3? No. Some things take time.

Frankly, part of The Economist's coverage is patronizing. Perhaps the London newspaper has a colonial hangover.

Look, I was not even rooting for Modi in the 2014 election, and you can check this blog's archives. Although I did not blame him for the 2002 riots (got to respect the Supreme Court) and I liked his work as Gujrat Chief Minister a lot. I came to him late. But I have come to him strong.

This guy is Deng Xiaoping. Manmohan Singh started economic reforms in India. But he did not have the political skills or stature that Modi has.

This guy's hero is Lee Kuan Yew, and for good reason.

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Modi's Rahul And Kejriwal Costs

I have a feeling Rahul might cost 100 seats to Modi, and Kejriwal another 20-30.

If the BJP gets 150 or 200 seats, and the Congress gets 100, then you have to deduct those 100 seats from the BJP's tally, because the chances of Rahul throwing his weight behind Modi are pretty much nil, and you know he is not going to stay neutral. Rahul has been an explicit Nitish fan.

It is being said Kejriwal is going to run for the same seat in UP that Modi might run from: Varanasi. The last time Kejriwal ran against a political heavyweight, the then Delhi Chief Minister, he won.

Kejriwal could spoil things for Modi and the BJP, or the AAP could emerge the largest among the non-Congress, non-BJP parties, in which case you just might be looking at Kejriwal becoming Prime Minister.

On the other hand, Kejriwal has that Modi quality of people wanting to run away from him. So he might be better off throwing his weight behind someone like Nitish. Nitish' tally is not going to be just the tally of the JD(U). His tally is first going to be the tally of the Janata Parivar, the biggest segment of the Third Front, which collectively is going to be bigger than Mamata or Jayalalita or Mayawati, and all of them together are going to be bigger than AAP, or the Congress, for that matter.

I have never heard Kejriwal badmouth Nitish. Obviously Kejriwal does not think Nitish is corrupt. Just like Rahul, he might also be a Nitish fan.

India today still is overwhelmingly a country of the rural poor. And there Modi is clueless, but Nitish has done amazing work. What is amazing is Nitish has managed to outdo Gujrat in growth rates. A poor, landlocked, agricultural state has outperformed a rich, coastal, industrial state. So if the issue is development, like Modi says it is, Nitish has a better track record.

I don't think of Modi as a corrupt individual. He has no family. He does not have a fat bank account. But what Kejriwal has been hinting at is the corporate contributions the BJP takes to do political work and then to bring corporate friendly policies. It is like, Manmohan Singh is not individually corrupt, but he seems to have presided over a cabinet that has been corrupt. So is it enough that he himself has not been corrupt?

I see Nitish winning at least 20 of Bihar's 40 seats. His approval rating is past 60%. That has got to translate into votes.

Monday, February 17, 2014

India 2014: Most Interesting

2014 is shaping to be the most interesting Indian election of my lifetime to date. The Congress that spearheaded India's independence struggle and then ruled for much of the half century after that is headed to below 100 seats. The BJP just might go past 200. AAP might emerge the third largest party: Kejriwal's resignation as Delhi Chief Minister was a political master stroke. Could AAP end up with 50 seats? I don't know.

BJP will get highest ever Lok Sabha tally, Congress lowest: Times Now poll

The poll projected that the BJP would win 202 seats if the elections were held now and its allies another 25, giving the NDA 227 seats in the 543-member LS. The Congress, in sharp contrast, would sink to just 89 and even with 12 seats from its allies the UPA would barely cross the 100 mark, it predicted. ..... With "others" likely to win 215 seats and many of them having joined hands with the BJP in the past, that would be very good news for those rooting for Narendra Modi as prime minister. In terms of vote shares, the NDA is estimated to win 36%, the UPA 22% and others 42%.

Right before Kejriwal resigned, the Third Front was in the lead in the projections with 42% of the vote to the BJP-led NDA's 36%. Some interesting permutations and combinations are possible, and most of them look good for India. I think 2014 will be that watershed year for the Indian economy like 1991 was when Manmohan Singh as Finance Minister opened up the economy a little. 2014 could be for India what 1980 was for China, the year when double digit growth rates started and stayed for over two decades non-stop. And we are all winners.

BJP is like McDonald's. It is the single largest fast food chain across America. But the Third Front is like the Chinese restaurants spread across America. Collectively they are bigger than McDonald's, but it does not appear that way. But 2014 could also shape up to be the election that mints out only winners. Modi, Nitish, Kejriwal, Rahul could all end up winners, no matter what.

Both Modi and Nitish would be wonderful if either were deprived of the big throne in Delhi and had to continue as Chief Minister. Their states would benefit. Neither seems to have clear successors who could replicate their magic in Gujrat and Bihar. On the other hand both have the political muscle that Manmohan Singh lacks.

One quality Kejriwal seems to share with Modi is it might be hard for him to put together a coalition. He might prove to be a one trick pony, at least this year. Just like Nitish has been saying he will support whoever will give special category status to Bihar, Kejriwal will go for whoever promises a Lokpal Bill at the center. AAP is number one on anti-corruption, but its economic vision has not gelled yet. Nitish has done the unthinkable when it comes to corruption in Bihar and is in a good position to seek Kejriwal's support after the election. Nitish has mastered the art of the Janata Durbar that Kejriwal tried and failed at.

Interim budget 2014: Chidambaram's 10-point agenda to make India 3rd largest economy

If you put the BJP at 190, the Congress at 100, AAP at 35, and the Third Front at 220, that does not put Modi in the lead, because the BJP at 190 and the Congress at 100 puts the BJP at 90. The Congress will support anyone but Modi, particularly Nitish. Rahul is a Nitish fan. What Nitish calls the Janata Parivar, the former Janata Dal party, might together bag more seats than AAP. That might also be true of his Eastern Bloc that includes Mamata.

Not creating a formal Third Front before the elections is a good step that does not push away Mamata and Mayawati. Both will support Nitish in the aftermath. Nitish as Prime Minister and Jayalalita as Deputy Prime Minister might be a good bet.

Nitish could end up a two term Prime Minister over 10 years if the Third Front parties were to form a federation. Each constituent party would stay as separate parties free to contest each other at state levels when necessary, but at the center each party would have a person who is part of some sort of a coordination committee in Delhi. Such a federation would ensure the Third Front government completes a five year term for the first time. Minus such a setup would leave too much room for horseplay.

AAP might not join such a Third Front. But it will support it if it gets a Lokpal Bill, and it should be given that. The Congress sure will not join the Third Front, but will happily extend outside support to keep Modi at bay. And Modi is going to continue to be an excellent Chief Minister.

But this outcome is not sure at all. Modi is very much in the running. The BJP crossing the 200 mark could throw up some interesting scenarios. And should the BJP cross the 200 mark, not form the government, and if the Third Front gives the country mid-term elections, the BJP could then cross the half way mark all on its own. It could become the new Congress.

I do think of Kejriwal as a future Prime Minister, but for that to happen he will have to realize the Indian electorate cares about double digit growth rates more than corruption. He has to look like he can deliver on both.

Jayalalita, Mamata and Mayawati are all in strong positions. It is good for India to have strong women politicians. It is just that none of them look strong right now on either anti-corruption or double digit growth rates.

Rahul can afford to stay out of power for another 10 years. He is young, he has time on his hands. That will also allow him time to build his party. He has some interesting initiatives in play in terms of power devolution in his party. But then parties like the Congress and the BJP are never really out of power. They always get some states to rule.