Showing posts with label Mamata Banerjee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mamata Banerjee. Show all posts

Monday, May 13, 2019

India 2019: A Fractured Mandate?



the BJP may end up winning 190-210 seats, and the NDA in its current form bagging 220-240 seats....... “This may mean the NDA will have to sign up at least four large regional parties in post-poll alliance to form the government,” the brokerage said. ...... There is a big question mark on what happens to UP ....... “Depending on whom you speak to, you get a range between 20 and 60 seats for the BJP. It really is not very clear.” ...... BJP political party workers on the ground say the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) joining the BJP in a post-poll alliance cannot be ruled out. ...... the BJP has proven to be more adept in making new alliances and keeping old ones, compared with the Congress. ....... despite not being officially part of the UPA, a number of strong regional parties seem ideologically committed towards a non-BJP election outcome


N. Chandrababu Naidu: The maker of tomorrowland Naidu is looking to transform Andhra Pradesh from an agrarian to a tech-driven economy. ...... chief minister of united Andhra Pradesh from 1995 to 2004 was the catalyst that made Hyderabad the wonder that it is today, still clocks 16 hours at work. ...... In 2000, Time magazine named Naidu South Asian of the Year for turning Hyderabad, which it described as “an impoverished, rural backwater place”, into “India’s new information-technology hub”. ...... Amaravati, the capital city of the new state, is being built from scratch on the southern banks of the Krishna river ...... He believes Andhra Pradesh can become the No. 1 state by 2029 in every economic parameter ...... in the past five years his state has achieved an average GDP growth rate of 10.52% ...... Naidu’s vision is to convert a largely agrarian state into a future-focussed, technology driven economy in tune with the needs of the 21st century. ....... he is talking specifically about big data, which lies at the heart of governance in the state. “If one has the right historical and current data, one can predict and execute things much better for individuals and the community because outcomes will be closer to expectations,’’ he says. ...... Real Time Governance Society monitoring centre housed in building No. 1 of the government secretariat in Amaravati. The monitoring centre is straight out of a Hollywood sci-fi film. On one side are giant screens, or dashboards, with constantly flashing images, videos, and data monitored by a few dozen people. These dashboards provide real-time data on the status of government welfare schemes and important government projects; road traffic; deaths, marriages and births in households; first information reports filed at various police stations; and even files signed by officials and ministers. Similar centres are present across the state. ......... “We have linked all the 240 government schemes across 30 departments and created 560,000 combinations, which help us resolve issues and grievances of people on a real-time basis. It is our way of breaking down the silos of various departments and bringing everyone together on the basis of data” ....... On March 1 the government had full data on its 44.9 million citizens across 123 parameters; it had 2,000 video cameras tracking vehicles and traffic violations, 2,000 government officials conversing with 3 million people in the state to solve their grievances and issues. Babu says the government has got 18 million complaints over the past four years. .......... the tech-savvy Naidu ...... Naidu wants the 217 sq. km. Amaravati to set the standards for smart cities in India—a truly global city that will draw top global firms to set up base there. Roads and water supply will be like in Amsterdam; power supply as in Germany and the U.S.; and the “green-blue” city—called so for the 51% green cover and 10% water bodies it will boast—will have storm water management matching that in the U.K. and Malaysia. ........ To overcome the challenge of land acquisition for building Amaravati, the state went in for land pooling. Farmers who gave up their land were offered a 10-year annuity package. “We have made farmers shareholders in the development process in the new capital, without evicting them from their habitations,” says Naidu. The annuity amount will not only increase 10% every year, but farmers will also get back a part—nearly one-third—of the developed land, which they can sell in the next 10 years.......Within two-and-a-half years, land which was selling at ₹10 lakh an acre has begun to fetch ₹2 crore. “So if the farmer decides to sell the developed plot, he can make a lot of money...... “Today 20% to 30% of all mobile phones are being manufactured in AP, I want it to go up to 50% to 60%,” says Naidu. Reliance Industries has announced an electronics park for making mobiles and televisions in Tirupati; electronics manufacturers Foxconn, and TCL Corporation, too, have plans to invest there....... Further south from the banks of the Krishna river are 13 urban plazas, signifying the 13 districts in the state. Means of transport in the city will run on electricity. There will be water-taxis, dedicated tracks for cyclists and well-shaded pavements, encouraging people to walk. The green pockets in the city are modelled on New York’s Central Park and Lutyens’ Delhi....... Amaravati is expected to be built by 2025 and the AP Capital Region, which comprises parts of Guntur, Vijayawada, and Tenali, by 2028.



Chandrababu Naidu Claims Modi Won't Become PM, Asserts Four Surveys Reveal TDP Victory predicted that Modi will never become Prime Minister again ..... He added that a Congress-led coalition is to form the government in the centre.



Mamata Banerjee will play key role, says Chandrababu Naidu On Ms. Banerjee’s request, Mr. Naidu addressed the crowd in Telugu to loud cheers. ...... Kharagpur, which houses the oldest IIT in the country and serves as important hub of South Eastern Railways, has a Telugu population of about 30% 




In a scenario where the BJP-led NDA ends up with 220-230 seats, the Congress-led UPA hovers around 140-150 seats, and the rest of the parties collectively bag about 270-280 seats, it might make sense for that Federal Front to get the pick for Prime Minister, and in that crowd Chandrababu Naidu might be the most capable candidate. That he is not in the running makes it even more attractive. A Federal Front with outside support from the Congress-led UPA might be stable enough.

There seems to be a growing chorus that these are the kinds of numbers India might be looking at. The truth is nobody knows.

Naidu Prime Minister, Mayawati Defense Minister.

In case there is a fractured mandate, many member parties of the NDA and the UPA might ditch those alliances.

But should the NDA end up with something like 230, it will be in a fairly good position to make a mad dash for a few big regional parties like Naveen Patnayak in Orissa, perhaps even Mayawati. Maybe Mayawati wants to become Deputy Prime Minister. Heck, it might even rope in a once NDA partner Chandrababu Naidu, who is focused on staying Chief Minister.





Should the BJP-led NDA end up with something like 220, that would create a scenario where some non-BJP person could rise to the helm. And the best way to elect that person is to follow the simple democratic process. All the MPs would form a pool. And that pool of MPs would engage in two rounds of votes. The highest two vote-getters would go into a second round. And the one who garners a majority of votes would naturally be the leader. That person could be from a party with only 20 MPs. Why not?

The most qualified person would be Naidu. Somebody like Rahul Gandhi would be best as Convenor of the coalition: UPA-4. On this side of the aisle, Naidu is best positioned to give India a double-digit growth rate.








Chandrababu Naidu Reinforces Opposition Unity With Meets in Bengal, Delhi
Opposition meeting likely to be held by Chandrababu Naidu and Rahul Gandhi on May 21

Hypothetical Scenario
Election Results
BJP-led NDA: 220
Congress-led UPA: 140
Non-BJP, non-Congress: 185

The last two come together to form UPA-4. Pool of MPs: 325.

Election for Parliamentary Leader:
First round of votes: Rahul Gandhi: 140 votes, Chandrababu Naidu: 185 votes.
Rahul Gandhi: Convenor of UPA-4
Chandrababu Naidu: Prime Minister of India



Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee can not see eye to eye. But Naidu can talk to both.



The problem is in the process. Instead of a few leaders saying we will sit together and decide, the steps have to be (1) form the coalition, (2) pool together all MPs of the coalition, and (3) organize an election for parliamentary leader for the coalition with every MP in the pool voting.

Chandrababu Naidu interview: Tried my best to connect Telangana and AP
KCR succeeds where Chandrababu Naidu failed
N Chandrababu Naidu fumes at TD leaders for skipping meets
TDP tech advisor is whistle-blower, not thief: Chandrababu Naidu hits back at EC's charge
Kingmaker sweepstakes: Naidu outfoxes KCR Praising the Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief as a “Bengal tigress”, Naidu claimed she “would act as a kingmaker in the formation of the next government” at the Centre. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief also announced a meeting of 22 Opposition parties in Delhi, likely on May 23 to discuss government formation....... midway through the Lok Sabha elections and amidst speculation of BJP not faring as well at the hustings, KCR started distancing from it while trying to cosy up to regional, secular parties.
Jagan’s padayatra to connect with the people and the TDP government’s struggle to implement farm loan waivers are reminiscent of the 2004 political scenario.
‘Chandrababu Naidu may merge TDP with Congress’
‘Country will get a new PM, under Mamata Banerjee’s leadership’ says Chandrababu Naidu
Will Naidu merge TDP with Congress?
Afraid, nervous Modi speaks his mother tongue: Hatred
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Wednesday, May 08, 2019

India 2019: The Suspense

If the BJP-led alliance is at 250 or above, it might be able to still cobble together a majority by pulling in a few parties. But if the tally is closer to 200, that opens up the distinct possibility of the emergence of a new Prime Minister. As to who that new face will be is not at all clear.

The total number of seats is 545. That puts the halfway mark at 273. There are three camps: the BJP-led alliance, the Congress-led alliance, and the unaffiliated, sometimes known as the Federal Front. It is possible the unaffiliated could emerge as the second largest block after the Congress-led alliance and seek the outside support of the Congress-led alliance. As in, the BJP-led alliance could emerge the largest but not the majority block and still have to sit out.

Or Modi could easily hit 300. It is hard to tell.

NDA: 250-300, UPA: 80-120, FF: 160-200. If the Federal Front crosses 200, it might as well claim the top job.

On election results, it is best to keep an open mind One of the great charms of Indian democracy is the power of the silent voters ....... When the counting began for the 2014 election, there was very little expectation that some four hours later India would be witnessing a clear Narendra Modi victory, an event that was subsequently to be described as a ‘wave’. As Prannoy Roy has written in a recent book, even the outcome of the tsunami election of 1984 was largely unanticipated by the pundits........ the larger suspense will persist till the morning of May 23. ....... particularly true of rural women whose voting preferences are often not robustly factored in....... In the Delhi assembly election of 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party made its electoral debut. Its campaign was enthusiastic but not very organized. That was evident on polling day when the AAP’s patchy presence contrasted with the organized approach of both the Congress and the BJP. Yet, AAP performed spectacularly and came within a whisker of upstaging the BJP as the single largest party.......... Modi’s meetings in West Bengal for example have been hugely attended. The numbers attending are also far in excess of what the BJP’s weak organizational apparatus in the state can mobilize. Indeed, the success of these meetings has forced the West Bengal chief minister to organize many more public meetings than she originally planned. In places where the crowds have not matched her expectations, she has followed the meetings with a padayatra....... the raw human emotion of an election is never captured by surveys and exit polls. This is why it is best to approach the morning of May 23 with an open mind.

BJP banks on Bengal Ground reports from three rounds of polling indicate that the party could lose a chunk of the seats it had won in 2014 ...... “We could lose around 50 seats we had won in 2014 in states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Bihar and Jharkhand. However, we are confident of springing a surprise in Bengal, Odisha and also in the Northeast to an extent to offset the losses,” one of the BJP leaders monitoring the party’s election war room in Delhi said...... “We are banking heavily on Bengal and Odisha. If we falter in these states, our tally will come down substantially,” another BJP leader said. “It would be very difficult for us to come close to the majority mark if the showing is not good in Bengal and Odisha,” the leader added....... “Our feedback shows there is a high chance of us winning between 10-15 seats in Bengal and anything between 5-10 seats in Odisha,” a BJP leader said....... The most serious losses are being feared in Uttar Pradesh, owing to the formidable BSP-SP-RLD alliance. ....The BJP has received reports of losses in Maharashtra owing to acute agrarian distress and the Congress-NCP alliance.

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Tuesday, May 07, 2019

India 2019: Some Projections

Scenario 1: The BJP led alliance falls short of the halfway mark and quickly pulls in a few regional parties to form a majority. This was the talk of the town yesterday.

Scenario 2: The BJP improves on its tally from 2014. This might not be likely.

Scenario 3: The BJP does less well than in 2014 but still manages to cross the majority mark and forms another government for five years.

Scenario 4: The arithmetic is tri-polar: the BJP led alliance, the Congress-led alliance which is much smaller, and the non-BJP, non-Congress Federal Front alliance which asks the Congress for outside support to form a government.

Right now scenario one seems to be in the air. People are talking about it. But nobody knows for sure.

Somebody like the Orissa chief minister Patnayak might be willing to support the BJP led alliance in the case the need arises.




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Monday, July 27, 2015

18% Growth Rate For Bihar?





That is mind blowing. An 18% growth rate is mind blowing. कौन से घाट का पानी पीते हैं नीतिश? उस पानी को bottling करो।

अमरिका बेलायत ने कभी ४-५% से ज्यादा किया नहीं। वही है कि दशकों तक ४-५% करते रहो तो बहुत हो जाता है। तो जब चीन ने १०% करना शुरू किया तो पहला रिएक्शन था, "चीनके बन्दर, हम ने तो कभी ५% से ज्यादा किया नहीं और ये कह रहे हैं हम १०% कर रहे हैं? जरूर झुठ बोल रहे होंगे।"

१८% ---- ये तो बौखला देने वाली नम्बर है।

लालु ने जब रेलवे में बम्पर मुनाफा दिखाया तो लोग बौखला गए थे, पश्चिमी देश के लोग कहने लगे, "ये कौन सा मॉडल है? हमारे किताबों में कहीं है ही नहीं।" कि इतना बड़ा फ़ौज है भारतीय रेलवे के पास। कमसेकम ३ लाख लोग तो काम कर ही रहे होंगे भारतीय रेलवे के लिए। वर्षों से, दशकों से पश्चिमी देश के लोग रिपोर्ट पर रिपोर्ट लिख रहे थे, सुझाव दे रहे थे, कि भारतीय रेलवे को मुनाफे में ले जाना है तो कंटनी छंटनी करो। Downsizing करो। लोगों को नौकरी से दफा करो। तो लालु ने वैसा कुछ किया नहीं, "I am a man of the people" कहते रह गए। तो किसी को कोइ होप नहीं था कि कुछ होगा। लालु मजाकिया आदमी, लोगों को इंटरटेन करते रहेंगे --- कुछ ऐसा expectation था। लेकिन लालु ने बम्पर मुनाफा दिखा दिया। सबको आश्चर्य हुवा। उसके बाद ममता आयी, तो फिर से भारतीय रेलवे घाटे में चला गया।

अभी भी लोग ठीक से समझ नहीं पा रहे हैं, आखिर लालु ने किया तो किया क्या? आंकड़े तो हैं। क्या किया वो तो है। सबके सामने है। लेकिन कैसे किया? लोग फोर्मुला अभी तक ढूँढ रहे हैं, मिल नहीं रहा है। और लालु है कि बता नहीं रहे हैं।

और ये नीतिश का १८% ---- मेरा तो शर चकरा गया ---- आखिर कैसे? कैसे हुवा? कैसे किया आपने?

ये दोनों बिहार के जादुगर। हात की सफाइ मारते रहते हैं।

अगर बिहार १८% कर सकती है तो बाँकी भारत को १५% तो करना ही होगा। थोड़ा आप लोग भी तो करो।

 

Bihar has developed in last one decade: Nitish
the state recorded a growth rate of

17.99 percent

at current price during 2014-14. In 2004-05, the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) was Rs.77,781.16 crore, which increased in 2014-15 to Rs.402,282 crore. ..... The plan expenditure was Rs.3,124.32 crore in 2004-05, which increased to Rs.43,931.61 crore,an average increase of 31.95 percent. ...... In the education sector, children in the age group of 6 -14 years were brought to school. "There were 12 percent children out of school in 2005 which now has been reduced to 1.72 percent," Nitish Kumar said. ...... He said 40 lakh children studying in class 9 received money for buying cycles. ..... Nitish Kumar said the vaccination under regular immunization was 18.6 percent in 2005, which now had increased to 78 percent. This figure is higher than the national average. ...... "The state government has constructed 66,508 km major and rural roads in the last decade. Similarly, 5,431 major bridges were constructed to improve connectivity." ....... The per capita consumption of electricity in the state increased from 70 kWh in 2005 to 203 kWh in 2015. ...... "In November 2005, average availability of power was 6 to 8 hours in the urban areas and 2 to 3 hours in rural area. But in 2015, the average availability of power in urban area is 22 to 24 hours and 15 to 16 hours in rural areas," Nitish Kumar said.


Bihar’s development record under Nitish Kumar
Kumar seems to have maintained his good track record in his second term. Bihar’s performance on many socio-economic indicators after 2005, when Kumar took over, is not only better than its own performance in the previous decade, but also of comparable states or the national average. Among the states we have taken for comparison with Bihar are Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.......... Bihar’s economic growth has been impressive under Kumar’s tenure. The average annual growth of Bihar’s economic output was the highest among selected states. Its performance in agriculture was second only to Madhya Pradesh......... Writing before the 2010 assembly elections, economist Swaminathan Aiyar attributed the economic turnaround of Bihar to improved law and order situation under Kumar. A look at the National Crime Records Bureau data shows significant reduction in crimes such as dacoity and robbery under Kumar’s tenure. ....... Bihar’s high growth can be mainly attributed to the fact that it started on a lower base. ...... Bihar has cut leakages from the public distribution system, which came down from 75-90% during the 2000s to less than 25% in 2011-12. ....... Bihar has also witnessed the second highest reduction in poverty among these states. ..... Reviving public health facilities was another of Kumar’s priorities. Although the share of health and education spending as a share of the gross state domestic product came down from 6.3% to 4.7% between 2005-06 and 2013-14, in absolute terms, there was a more than three-fold increase. The spending also appears to have been done more efficiently. ..... Bihar has managed to bring down infant mortality rates (IMR) at a faster pace than the national average. IMR is the number of dead children under one year per 1,000 live births. Although the state’s IMR is still higher than all-India levels, the gap reduced after Kumar took over. ...... One of the most popular schemes Kumar started was giving bicycles to school-going girls. This and several such efforts seem to have paid dividends in the education sector as Bihar recorded the highest improvement in retention rates among this group of states. Retention rates are defined as a percentage of students who manage to reach grade V after having enrolled in grade I. ...... Despite this progress, Bihar remains among the poorest states in terms of per capita income. Its rank in social development is close to the bottom. ..... BJP, his main opposition, is also claiming credit for the same. After all, JD(U) and BJP were in an alliance from 2005 to 2013, when Kumar walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) opposing Narendra Modi’s prime ministerial candidature. The NDA swept the 2014 elections when Kumar and Yadav were not together.


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Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Kunming Kolkata



China seeks rail link between Kunming and Kolkata
to revive the ancient silk route, traversing through Myanmar and Bangladesh. ..... the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) multi-model corridor project initiated by China. ..... The 2800 kilometer rail route could be a critical component for the BCIM corridor that seeks cross border trade and flow of people. .... China has pledged $40 billion for the silk route, having a trade potential of $132 billion. ..... Kunming, capital of Southwest China's Yunnan province ..... "We are glad to know that after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office, the look east policy has substantially moved ahead.
New Silk Route? China plans Kunming-Kolkata railway link
The proposed 3,000 km rail corridor ..... The rail corridor will pass through Mandalay in Myanmar and the Bangladeshi cities of Chittagong and Dhaka before entering West Bengal and ending in Kolkata. The economic corridor project, along the old southern Silk Route, envisages the building of transport, energy and telecommunication networks.
China seeks high-speed rail link between Kunming and Kolkata to revive ancient silk route
funding from multilateral bodies such as Asian Development Bank. ...... Talking about the entertainment sector in particular, he favoured screening of more and more Indian films in Chinese theaters and joint collaboration in movie making. ..... The recent release of Aamir Khan starer PK has been a hit in China, Ming, who plans to catch the movie soon, said.
Faster than China? India's road, rail drive could lay doubts to rest
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reformist, but hard-up government has begun a splurge on road and rail building that analysts say could remove doubts over whether economic growth in India really is overtaking China.


China: A Complex Picture
The State And Its Several Forms
Friends Of Hillary: On Both Sides?
Rohingya: India's Responsibility
All Of Bihar Is One Big City
Bihar@2025
India: A 15% Growth Rate Is Possible
Tough, Challenging Roles For Amitabh
Amitabh Should Do A Movie With Anushka
The Tamils Of Sri Lanka And Me

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Friday, May 29, 2015

Mamata's Impressive Move

The rest of India should copy this.

West Bengal to install sanitary pad vending machines

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Monday, July 14, 2014

Nitish, Laloo, Mayawati, Mulayam, Mamata, Left Coming Together

It is precisely the spectacular victory of the Modi-led BJP that has prepared grounds for the coming together of forces that did not see eye to eye for a long time, such is the emergent political arithmetic. Nitish and Laloo will come together in Bihar. Congress and the Left will join that bandwagon. Mayawati and Mulayam show no signs of seeing the writing on the wall. Mamata is strong on her own, but is observant of the fact that the BJP has displaced the Left as the principle local opposition.

Uttar Pradesh might be the trickiest. Right now the BJP is positioned to form the next state government. But the Bihar state elections will be held before the Uttar Pradesh state elections. And so UP has more time on its hands.

Nitish is obviously not finished yet.




Patnaik in Orissa and Jayalalita are already in good shape as it is.




Uttar Pradesh is the trickiest because Mulayam and Mayawati do not have what Nitish does, which is the development mantra. And without the development mantra you can't beat Modi just with alliance making.

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Friday, June 20, 2014

Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh small
Uttar Pradesh small (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The BJP's spectacular victory in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and its dramatic rise in West Bengal to become the second largest party also makes room for anti-BJP alliances among former arc rivals. For example, Laoo and Nitish in Bihar. Mayawati and Mulayam in Uttar Pradesh. Mamata and the Left in West Bengal.

A Nitish-Laloo-Congress alliance in Bihar would rout the BJP in Bihar in the 2015 elections.

Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav to extend Rajya Sabha friendship to state polls
Believe it or not! BJP turns unifier for Mamata Banerjee and Left too

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Saturday, June 07, 2014

The Federal Front Is A Great Idea

English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Baner...
English: Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee attends a news conference in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata September 7, 2008. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)


If and when Modi's time is up, it will be someone from the Federal Front who will take over. That is what I foresee. And so step one perhaps is a Federal Front leading the opposition.

AIADMK 37
Trinamool Congress 34
Biju Janata Dal 20

That alone is 91.

Telangana Rashtra Samiti 11

That takes it past 100, which is double whatever the Congress can muster.

Credit goes to Mamata for coining the term.

There is a real role in the Upper House for this Front.

The BJP grew almost entirely at the expense of the Congress. The BJP did not eat much into the votes of the non-Congress, non-BJP parties which together get as many votes as the Congress and the BJP combined. That is grounds for a pre-poll formal, structured alliance.

You broker peace between Mulayam and Mayawati and you get Uttar Pradesh, you broker peace between Nitish and Laloo and you get Bihar. Delhi goes to whoever gets the Hindi heartland.

But right now my bet is the BJP will also form the state government in Uttar Pradesh in a few years. Bihar, I don't know. I don't know what Nitish has on his mind. I think he would like to fight solo and sweep Bihar like his colleagues Mamata, Jayalalita and Patnaik.

Regional parties may form ‘federal front’, isolate Congress in Parliament

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