Showing posts with label Joshua Wong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joshua Wong. Show all posts

Sunday, November 17, 2019

I Am Worried For Hong Kong

I am worried about Hong Kong. This is too much violence. The solution is dialogue. The solution is Carrie Lam inviting the protest leaders to sit down and talk.

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Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Hong Kong: The Situation Escalates

After Xi Jinping recently met with Carrie Lam, he drew a line in the sand. He stands with Carrie Lam as Carrie Lam makes it sound like Hong Kong is a problem for the Hong Kong Police to handle. The more enlightened position would be that this is a political problem with a political solution, not a police solution.

And the situation keeps escalating. Every line that the Hong Kong Police crosses seems to add fuel to the fire. The hurricane keeps gathering momentum.

It is unwise of Xi Jinping and Carrie Lam to not seek a rapid political solution.



I have a feeling Hong Kong might be moving towards a general strike. So far it has been young people and students. Now the general population might step in and shut the city down.

The Chinese economic miracle would not have been possible without Hong Kong. China should not try to kill the hen that lays the golden egg.

All Hong Kong is asking for is one country, two systems. They were promised that by Deng Xiaoping.

Xi Jinping is trying to pass the buck. And this buck can not be passed.


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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Hong Kong: Endgame Scenarios

Endgame 1: The Protestors Get Tired

One weekend they simply don't show up. Because they got tired. I don't see this happening. If anything, like a hurricane in the Bahamas, this thing seems to only gather further momentum.

Endgame 2: Beijing Sends In The Force

The PLA crosses the border and marches in. I don't see this happening. Beijing is smart enough to realize it will face major international sanctions. The tariffs that only the US has imposed, many major countries will impose. This act should be the least palatable to Beijing. This route chosen leads to a collapse of the communist party inside China because it starts a chain reaction.

Endgame 3: Inaction

Which is what is happening right now. Carrie Lam will not move the needle. Beijing will not move the needle. They basically hope for endgame 1, even though they do not so spell it out.

Endgame 4: The Protestors Get Better Organized, Locally As Well As Globally

Unless they want to also play the tire you out game, the protestors have no choice but to get better organized. Join this or that political party in the millions. Have elected leadership. Hold regular meetings. Pass resolutions after debate and discussion. Organize globally. Although the movement has been local to Hong Kong, it is only a matter of time before some questions will arise. Why are your demands good only for Hong Kong? What about the rest of China? In China, there might be fear. But what about the global Chinese diaspora? Why are you not winning the debate among the global Chinese diaspora? An interesting part of this development will be that the protest leaders will have to face the fact that they don't necessarily want a copycat political system to what America has. The political and economic system in the US is right now undergoing serious internal questioning. But unless the movement is capable of that debate and discussion, it is not a mature movement.

This last option seems to be the only available option.

Hurricane Hong Kong, will you hit Alabama?


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Carrie Lam Should Invite Protest Leaders For Talks

It is not realistic to think Xi Jinping will sit down for talks with the protest leaders. That might actually be a violation of one country, two systems. And I am not sure Beijing has instructed Carrie Lam to not talk to the protestors. I don't think she consulted Beijing before she decided on the mask ban, which was not a wise move.

Hong Kong Police is already doing the best it can. It is irresponsible of Carrie Lam to push it all onto a Hong Kong Police that used to be known as "Asia's Finest," but now has taken a beating in reputation. Hong Kong Police now has a major image problem.

The threats of "emergency powers," and "military crackdown" are empty and should not be issued, otherwise that will lead to a further erosion of her credibility and authority, worse than the one after the "mask ban."

The most important demand has already been met. Some of the demands can be negotiated. For example, three of the demands are about police conduct. A compromise position would be that the 2,000 plus who have been arrested are released, and although there is an investigation, it is more in the spirit of truth and reconciliation, not intended for punitive purposes. As to whether what has happened is "riot" or "protest," well for that you have free speech. You debate that part as much as you want.

The final demand is tricky. Carrie Lam could say, it is not in my power to accept or reject that demand. And so I can't discuss it. And that would be a fair thing to do. She truly does not have the power to accept the fifth demand.

The onus is on Carrie Lam as the Chief Executive of Hong Kong. She should simply invite the protest leaders for talks.




Hong Kong: Carrie Lam hints at further measures to suppress protests Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam has hinted at further measures to suppress the increasingly violent protests in the financial hub ahead of her annual policy speech, which will launch economic but not political measures in an attempt to douse widespread discontent....... the increasingly violent acts in recent weeks, which has seen activists hurling dozens of petrol bombs at police while others trashed metro stations as well as shops and banks seen as pro-Beijing. A home-made bomb was remotely detonated as a police car drove past on Sunday night and an officer also had his neck slashed by a protester. ........

Chinese president, Xi Jinping, warned during his trip to Nepal on Sunday that “anyone attempting to split China in any part of the country will end in crushed bodies and shattered bones”

....... the increasingly severe police beatings of protesters, media and bystanders in recent months have caused sweeping resentment. Ordinary people yell obscenities when riot police officers are seen on the streets........ Lam said her annual policy address, scheduled for Wednesday when the legislature resumes sessions, would launch economic measures to ease the land and housing situation. Mainland Chinese officials have repeatedly said unaffordable housing and employment issues are the “root cause” of Hong Kong’s social unrest, although political scientists say economic sweeteners alone will not solve the city’s political crisis........ She condemned the violent attacks on mainland Chinese businesses, shops seen as pro-Beijing, and pro-government politicians’ offices. “To say these were to fight for freedom and democracy could not be further from the truth,” she said. ....... she said her government remained committed to holding district council elections as scheduled on 24 November, despite the unstable social situation........ the Communist party mouthpiece Xinhua news agency said “Hong Kong has slipped into a dangerous abyss and a critical moment” and urged the business sector and civil servants to shun political neutrality, show their support for the police and refrain from “condoning the rioters” for ruining the city’s prosperity.

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam says she expects police to submit full report to coroner on death of 15-year-old girl, that has triggered violence and conspiracy theories The chief executive also said more than 10 police officers were injured, as the force came under attack from hard-core protesters over the weekend.

US senator Ted Cruz accuses Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam of cancelling meeting with him out of ‘weakness’ and ‘fear’ of anti-government protesters Ted Cruz said he had been looking forward to talks with chief executive but was told when he landed in the city that the meeting had been cancelled ....... Republican senator also said he had met ‘non-violent protest leaders’ and impressed upon them the need to shun violence .......

“Prior to the meeting being cancelled, Ms Lam’s office asked that I agree to keep everything said in the meeting secret and not inform the press of anything she had to say,” Cruz said.

......... Cruz’s anti-Beijing campaign has seen him introduce a bill to amend the US-Hong Kong Policy Act, which would require the State Department to certify the city’s autonomy if it is to continue enjoying special trade and economic benefits under the existing arrangement....... Cruz and other China hawks in the US Congress are also pushing for the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which would require Washington to assess whether the city should still be afforded its special status in light of political developments........ A couple of protesters were at Hong Kong’s airport to greet him upon arrival and thank him for his support for their cause – they had reportedly bought flight tickets so they would be allowed into the terminal building, which is off-limits to protesters after the chaos they caused during previous demonstrations at the arrival and departure halls. ....... “I recognise that some of the protests have turned violent. There is considerable concern that the protests are being infiltrated by agents of the Chinese government precisely to cause that violence, to turn the protests violent. I don’t know if that is happening or not; I can tell you the protest leaders with whom I spoke today believe it is happening,” he said. ......

“What I have encouraged the protest leaders with whom I have spoken is to embrace non-violent protest, to follow the tradition of Gandhi in India and Dr Martin Luther King in the United States

........ “That can be difficult to carry out, it can be particularly difficult in the face of violent oppression by government forces, of police beatings and shootings.” ....... “There is a reason the Communist Party in China wants the Hong Kong protests to turn violent because the Chinese Communist Party very much wants to characterise these protests as violent acts of terrorism rather than democracy protesters standing up for human rights,” he said. ..... “But my strong encouragement to the protesters here in Hong Kong is resist the urge to respond to brutality in like kind, but instead stand with dignity.”

‘Not feasible to relaunch a debate on universal suffrage now,’ Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam tells EU, according to internal report Chief executive said she expected a heavy defeat for pro-establishment camp in upcoming district council elections....... Lam reportedly said this year’s policy address will be focused on land and housing, and ‘reiterating confidence in one country, two systems’ ....... it was not feasible to relaunch a debate on universal suffrage now, as that would require constitutional steps by the National People’s Congress and society was too polarised ....... Lam reportedly stated there was nothing to be gained by opening a discussion on something that could not be delivered at present. Universal suffrage is one of five core demands of anti-government protesters......... The chief executive, who “seemed to be in an upbeat mood”, said she had every intention of ensuring the district council elections, scheduled for November 24, would proceed as planned. But she noted it was “up to protesters”......

she said “you can’t negotiate with the mob”

....... “She asserted that the unrest had now descended into ‘sheer and blatant violence’. It was no longer possible to envisage an end to violence being secured by meeting any of the four demands of protesters, given the activity of hard-core elements – who may have ‘organisations behind them’,” the report read........ Lam stood by the new anti-mask law, which took effect on October 5, arguing it had contributed to a decrease in protest numbers and in the use of petrol bombs. She added that at the moment there was no plan to enact further emergency powers.........Thousands of protesters have defied the ban and more than 70 people have been detained over the new law...... Lam did not share a possible time frame for future dialogues with the public, in spite of having confirmed that large-scale encounters were still planned, as smaller group meetings were continuing. While Lam emphasised her determination to “‘put Hong Kong back in business’”
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Sunday, October 13, 2019

Gangster Words Spoken By Xi Jinping: Shattered Bones

These words are gangster. I am surprised they are coming out of the mouth of a president in this day and age. Shattered bones?



I worry for Hong Kong. I do. No, I don't fear a military crackdown. But what is already happening is bad enough.

Let me explain the military crackdown part. This is not me saying what should happen. This is not me being an advocate. This is me talking like a political scientist, or analyst, or student of political science, or simply a blogger. Should Beijing go for military action in Hong Kong, that will start a chain reaction that will lead to a collapse of the communist party inside China. The tariffs that only the US has imposed all major countries will impose. That will give China its first recession in decades. There will be sudden mass unemployment and subsequent mass unrests. There is no police, no intelligence service, no surveillance camera, no facial recognition software, no tank, no gas canister that will save the regime beyond a certain point. And that is sad because it is unnecessary.

The Soviet collapse lead to a major contraction of the Russian economy. It led to the rise of the mafia. Living standards fell across the board. By population Russia is like a small province of China. The same level of instability will be too much if it happens inside of China. Too much for China, too much for the world.

I wish the protests were completely non-violent. But then I also wish the Hong Kong Police followed their own guidelines and did not engage in uniformed as well as ununiformed vigilantism.

But the onus is on Carrie Lam and Xi Jinping. They have the power to decide that they will simply sit down with the leaders of the movement and negotiate on their five demands. The five demands stay within the one country two systems paradigm. What seems to be the problem?

A Marxist is supposed to be a scientist who faces data. The data is out in the streets of Hong Kong. This is a golden opportunity for Xi Jinping to give China its third revolution of political reforms.





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Friday, October 04, 2019

Hong Kong: The Mask Ban Can Not Be Implemented

It is not possible to implement the mask ban that Carrie Lam has just imposed upon Hong Kong. And thus this will lead to further erosion of credibility for the Hong Kong leadership. This is a bad political move. There is no police solution to the situation. There is only a political solution.

Enhanced repression will downgrade Hong Kong as a business destination.





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Hong Kong: Downturn?



Looks like Beijing had decided to up the ante on repression. Now the Hong Kong Police are firing bullets. One person has already died. This is a volatile situation. This is a route that either leads to Beijing losing, or winning and still losing. Maybe Donald Trump is not the only leader who looks backward. Xi Jinping also talks of past events. It is sad that a political solution is not being sought.

How do you expect the face mask ban to be implemented?

It Is Time for the United States to Stand Up to China in Hong Kong Tweets aren’t enough. Washington must make clear that it expects Beijing to live up to its commitments—and it will respond when China does not. ........ As the Chinese Communist Party commemorates 70 years of the People’s Republic of China by parading its military hardware in Beijing, the people of Hong Kong are struggling for their rights. For months, the world has watched as protesters in Hong Kong stood bravely in the face of police and state violence. They deserve our support......... What is happening in Hong Kong illustrates the challenge posed by China and the limitations of the United States’ current approach. In many cases, the United States will need to cooperate with China—for example, on climate change—but it must also stand firm when its interests and values are threatened.

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Raising The Stakes On Non Political Solution In Hong Kong



Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam invokes emergency powers, announces face mask ban

Beijing and Carrie Lam are obviously nowhere near looking at the other four demands. They seem to think there is a police soltion to the whole situation. They want to tire out the protestors. They want to wait it out.

Your opponent will do what your opponent will do. But you have to chalk out your own strategy.

Leaderless is not a movement. Disorganized is not a movement. It bothers me that the Hong Kong protestors choose not to be politically organized.

The mask is a human reaction to the surveillance cameras. People don't want Big Brother to know where they are all the time. That invasion of privacy is so total. This is a global issue.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019

Hong Kong Protests Need Political Leadership

At it happened: more than 100 arrests after march descends into violence and chaos on Hong Kong Island Online group Stand With Hong Kong has called on people to march on Sunday. It said people in at least 72 cities in more than 20 countries would demonstrate against totalitarianism over the weekend, in support of Hong Kong. .......



Having political leadership does not mean a top-down arrangement. It could mean two million Hong Kongers rapidly joining one political party or another and those parties holding internal elections to create leaders at all levels, from local to central. It definitely means party members getting together, discussing issues in person, and voting. It means the parties coming together to form a coalition. The party leaders could be the members of a council that oversees the movement with active near real-time feedback and negotiates with the authorities from Hong Kong to Beijing, and puts out periodic statements as necessary, not only externally but also internally. For example, it is important to say, let's not engage in violence and vandalism. That takes away our moral authority.



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Saturday, September 28, 2019

Hong Kong: The Protest Looking For A Safe Landing?

Of course, I can’t say that in five years later Hong Kong will have free elections suddenly, and that [a member of] the pro-democracy camp can be the leader of Hong Kong. But at least freedom from fear is what we hope for.
--- Joshua Wong, Hong Kong democracy leader

Look at what the most visible face of the movement is saying. The guy is already resigned to the fact that the fifth demand will not be met. And that posture matters.



A Criticism Of The Hong Kong Protestors
I Worry For The Hong Kong Protestors
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication

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