Showing posts with label Janata Dal (United). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Janata Dal (United). Show all posts

Thursday, January 09, 2020

Modi's Self-Destructive Behavior

Modi traveled the world. It felt like he was always on a plane to somewhere. When he landed in Delhi, it was for a few days of rest before he took off again. He held monstrous rallies of Indians around the world. Donald Trump never held a bigger rally inside the United States. And all that exposure added to India's soft power. Modi became the most popular politician in the world. After long decades India again had one party that could get a majority in the parliament on its own. Ideology aside, that means some stability. He even took action on Ease Of Doing Business, and India rose up in the ranks. FDI was on the uptick.

I have tried very hard to see the good in Modi. His rise from his humble background to the top office in India is noteworthy. I bought into what I thought was his laser focus on development issues when he ran in 2014. I do think he is personally incorruptible. But then that was also true of his predecessor, Dr. Manmohan Singh. Singh was never accused of having taken any bribes. Personally, he was not. His cabinet was another story. In Modi's case, he seems to have an iron grip on his cabinet, and the anti-corruption aura extends beyond him.

The jury is still out on demonetization. And the implementation of the GST (Goods and Services Tax) has seen much criticism. Done right, that was supposed to unify the Indian market. I don't have enough data on what actually happened.

Even before he made his Kashmir move, I am on record at this very blog saying the key to peace between India and Pakistan is to have two Kashmirs, just like there are two Punjabs. There is a Punjab in India. There is a Punjab in Pakistan. Turn the Line Of Control (LOC) into the permanent border and open up trade. So, obviously, I am not opposed to the idea of turning Kashmir into just another state in India. But I say, what a lost opportunity. If this move would have been made after summit meetings between Imran Khan and Narendra Modi, the region would have seen peace instead of the turmoil we are now seeing.

Article 370 I don't want to comment on too much. What did bother me a lot was that Kashmir was turned into an open-air prison in the aftermath. I was in disbelief.

And now this. India is convulsing. The country has been shaken to its roots. The citizenship amendment act is poorly worded, harshly implemented. And the entire world is watching. All the soft power Modi earned for India through his years of travels has evaporated, and it will show in the FDI numbers. And the tanking economy is not helping either. Modi has already had a very bad year politically. He has lost state after state. He lost Maharashtra where he lost his biggest and oldest ally, the Shiv Sena. I think that is what he is looking at in 2024. The non-BJP parties will come together to throw up a non-Congress prime minister.

Just like Kashmir done right would have given South Asia lasting peace and a major regional trade boost, granting citizenship to refugees is how a large, generous democracy enhances its soft power around the world. How about starting with the Rohingya! They just might be the most talked-about refugees in the world right now.

Modi and his team have been proving his critics right. Imran Khan has been shouting like a mad man accusing the BJP and the RSS of 1930s style fascism. And to Imran Modi gives the citizenship amendment act and the national registry of citizens. That is straight from the Nazi party book in the 1930s. The Nazis also sought to "protect" German minorities in neighboring countries. They also put together a "national registry of citizens."

Modi has squandered his impressive electoral mandate. It is all downhill from here for Modi, especially since there seems to be no hint of course correction.

I hope Prashant Kishor is the next Prime Minister of India.

The ABC (Anti BJP Coalition) already has 62% of the votes in the country, it just needs a proper organizational structure. By joining the coalition, a party agrees to one post one candidate at all levels, and it agrees to the decisions of a steering committee in which each party's strength is the number of MPs it has. There is no lack of money, there is no lack of votes, there is no lack of vision, there is no lack of strategy. Only this structure is missing. Sonia Gandhi can be Convenor.



India: Democracy Itself Is At Stake
India At A Turning Point
Arundhati Roy On India
Indian Citizenship Bill Protests: The Distrust Is Wide And Deep
India Citizenship Bill Debate (2)
India Citizenship Bill Debate
Biometric ID And Citizenship Solutions
India's Contentious Citizenship Amendment Bill
Has India Gone Crazy?
Step By Step To Solving The Big Problems
History In Fast Forward Motion Right Now
Kashmir Deserves Normalcy
News: Modi, Trump, Andrew Yang, Iran, Kamala Harris
Indian Democracy: Maharashtra Edition
India's Massive Unemployment Problem: China Actually Knows
Formula For Peace Between Israel And Palestine
The Stupidity Of The Ayodhya Dispute
Saudi-Iran: Imran Is The Only One Who Can
Can't Stop Water To Pakistan
New Capitalism Is Techno Capitalism, Hello Marc
The Nation State In Peril
Imran's Peace Gamble In Afghanistan
South Asians Working In The Gulf

I think something like this is possible for 2024.

2024: Possible Lok Sabha Composition

BJP: 150

Anti-BJP Coalition (ABC):
Congress: 60
JD (U): 50 (25 in Bihar, 25 outside Bihar)
Trianmool Congress: 40
Shiv Sena: 20
LJP (Paswan): 6
RJD: 10
AIADMK: 20
DMK: 15
YSR Congress: 20
BJD: 20
BSP: 30
SP: 30
NCP: 10
CPI (M): 10
TRS: 10
TDP: 5
AAP: 4
Total: 360
Others: 33

























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Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Indian Citizenship Bill Protests: The Distrust Is Wide And Deep

Has India's Narendra Modi gone too far with controversial new citizenship law? Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian government has stripped the country's only Muslim-majority state of autonomy and rolled out a citizenship check in the northeastern state of Assam that effectively left nearly 2 million people stateless, many of them Muslims. ........ And when Modi backed the passage of a controversial new citizenship law, which prioritizes immigrants from three Muslim-majority countries of virtually every religious stripe over Islam, protests broke out across India. ........ To Modi's critics, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) -- which fast-tracks applications for immigrants, including Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians who arrived in India before 2015 -- has become

the most brazen example of a Hindu nationalist agenda aimed at marginalizing Indian Muslims

. ...... Since the law passed through both houses of Parliament last week, demonstrations have swept university campuses in at least nine states. Protesters have taken to the streets across Assam and Tripura over fears that large numbers of Hindus, who migrated to the region in the past few decades, will now be able to get their citizenship fast-tracked. Many there fear it will dramatically recast the religious and ethnic makeup of the northeastern states -- home to 200 distinct indigenous groups. .......

critics are worried it might pave the way for nationwide citizenship tests, stripping the rights of Muslims who have lived in India for generations but cannot prove their family's lineage -- turning countless people stateless.

........ Home Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly said that the government will roll out a national citizenship registry. ...... Modi tried to reassure the public on Monday, saying on Twitter that the new law "does not affect any citizen of India of any religion." And that "no Indian has anything to worry" about....... But when a citizenship registry took place in Assam earlier this year it left 1.9 million people off a list of Indian citizens. The government said at the time that no one would be declared a foreigner if they are not on the list, but that failed to temper concerns........ What is at stake is "the future of liberal democracy in India," Vaishnav said. "And it looks like a side, which has been asleep or at least silent, has really woken up and made sure that their voices are being heard." ...... The protests are sure to have caught Modi -- who has developed a reputation for being a Teflon premier -- somewhat off guard. ..... As protests roiled the country over the weekend, the government shut down the internet in several affected states in a bid to maintain law and order........ in spite of mounting grievances, analysts think it is unlikely that the BJP will scrap the law. "Modi still remains, head and shoulders, the most popular politician in India" ......

India lacks a foreplan for what comes next. Its detention centers do not have the capacity needed to house "millions of people that could potentially be caught up," if a nationwide citizenship check is rolled out

...... there appears to be no existing talks with neighboring countries, like Bangladesh, on the issue of deportation ....... "Are you going to see large numbers of Muslims detained or lose their citizenship? It is a game of wait and see."



India is fundamentally a secular, diverse country. Modi spent years cultivating the image of a Vikash Purush ("Development Man") before he ran for Prime Minister in 2014. His famous slogan is, Sab Ka Saath Sab Ka Vikas ("Development For All").

India is the largest remittance economy in the world, and it draws sustenance from the Gulf countries only a few hours away. And, of course, India is the second largest Muslim country in the world by population. At some level, partition was never possible, and it never happened.

Modi came in promising double-digit growth rates, but his second term has been marked by one anti-Muslim step after another. It might be okay to turn Kashmir into just another Indian state, but turning Kashmir into an open-air prison is a no-no. Indians are so into free speech, they argue when they are out shopping for vegetables. They haggle over price.

Before the amended citizenship bill came along, already close to two million Muslims in Assam had been declared stateless. So the new bill is making people feel like that number will go from two million to 20 million. That will make Syria look like the Bahamas. Xi with his Xinjiang will have nothing on Modi. Assurances to the contrary are falling on deaf ears.

I think a fundamental political realignment is on its way. And Maharashtra shows the way. Recently the Shiv Sena ditched Modi's BJP, and the Shiv Sena has been the BJP's staunchest ally over the decades. The pendulum has started to swing in the other direction. At this rate the next election slated for 2024 might see the BJP emerge as the largest but a minority party, with the second-largest, the Congress, propping the leader of a smaller party for Prime Minister. That might as well be Mamata Banerjee. That could be Prashant Kishor. The kingmaker should become king.

Too much political organizing, too much efficiency, Amit Shah style, can also be a bad thing if it stifles debate. It can lead to democratic erosion. The famously chaotic Congress party might be in luck now.

The Vikash Purush is now being seen as the Social Vinash Purush, a destructive force. Dominoes will start to fall much before 2024. Maharashtra might be the first of many to come. This could be Modi's last term, and I don't see Amit Shah ever becoming Prime Minister.

Prashant Kishor should take his party, the JD(U), to at least six states. He has the option to become the Indian Macron.

India Citizenship Bill Debate (2)
India Citizenship Bill Debate
Biometric ID And Citizenship Solutions
India's Contentious Citizenship Amendment Bill
2019 Photos
Has India Gone Crazy?















NRC demonetisation of citizenship, says Prashant Kishor A day after he said Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is against a nationwide NRC, senior JD (U) leader Prashant Kishor on Sunday said the idea of a nationwide NRC is equivalent to “demonetisation of citizenship” which is “invalid” until proved. The state BJP responded by saying NRC was its “future agenda” and there was no need for alliance partner JD (U) to engage in any propaganda over it. ........... The JD(U) leader, who had criticised his party for supporting the Citizenship Amendment Bill in Parliament, met Nitish on Sunday to sort out differences and came out with the party’s new stand — “NRC with CAB is dangerous and discriminatory”.

Sharad Pawar: Country needs alternative to BJP that stays in India Responding to a query of reporters in Nagpur on whether an anti-BJP coalition was in the making at the national level, the NCP president said, "There are some indications that anti-BJP sentiments are on the rise in some parts of the country." ...... Rahul Gandhi on Tuesday said he had met South Korea Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon during a visit to the country. His visit to South Korea came amid widespread protests over the amended citizenship law in various parts of India. ....... “It was expected that the unrest would remain confined to certain states.” ........ He said that contrary to the BJP’s expectation that the new law would be welcomed in certain states, it was being opposed in the party-ruled Assam too.

Jamia unrest: Priyanka, Prashant Kishor attack Centre
Citizenship Amendment Act dangerous if it goes along with NRC: Prashant Kishor
Arvind Kejriwal ropes in Prashant Kishor for Delhi Assembly elections

Nitish Kumar says no to Prashant Kishor's offer to resign Prashant Kishor has differences with Nitish Kumar supporting CAA. JD(U) Vice-President Prashant Kishore had also expressed his displeasure through a tweet and appealed to Nitish Kumar to not support the Citizenship Amendment Bill in the Rajya Sabha. But the JD(U) supported the Bill in both Houses of Parliament....... On Wednesday, Kishor had tweeted the legislation could turn into a lethal combo (with NRC) to systematically discriminate and even prosecute people based on religion.

Back With a Bang? Crafted by Prashant Kishor, How a Single Strategy Helped Mamata Regain Ground Ahead of Bypoll Test Since Kishor launched 'Didi Ke Bolo' on July 29, the TMC has not only managed to recapture several municipalities that had shifted to the BJP but also win the confidence of strong ground-level leaders to rejoin the party........ the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made massive gains in West Bengal, winning 18 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats, up from just two in 2014. After that, her party lost seven municipalities to the BJP, as a majority of them switched over to the saffron outfit....... While the TMC was on the back foot, Banerjee, the West Bengal chief minister, had secretly picked political strategist Prashant Kishor on June 6 to get the party on track ....... After 54 days of Kishor's appointment, the outreach programme Didi Ke Bolo (Tell Didi) was launched on July 29, and in a span of nearly 180 days the TMC has not only managed to recapture all the seven municipalities which went to the BJP (due to a switchover) but also win the confidence of strong ground level leaders to rejoin the TMC........ His first major campaign was in 2011 when he secured the victory of Narendra Modi in Gujarat for a third term as chief minister. The 42-year-old trained in public health and worked with the United Nations for several years before entering the Indian political scene.......... He came under the spotlight when he helped Modi and the BJP win the 2014 general elections with innovative canvassing techniques: the chai pe charcha (talks over tea) campaign, 3D rallies, conclaves and social media programmes. Since then, Kishor has aided in electing to power JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Congress's Amarinder Singh in Punjab and the YSRCP's YS Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh. ........ As per the TMC’s internal assessment, more than 2,000 strong leaders – who actually have the capability to turn the tables – have come back to the Trinamool in the last six months. Most of them are booth leaders, having a great connect at the grassroots level.......... On November 7, Mamata Banerjee personally assessed the impact of Prashant Kishor’s ‘Didi Ke Bolo’ campaign in Bengal. The review meeting was held at Trinamool Bhawan in North Panchanna Gram where all the party leaders including MLAs, MPs and district presidents were asked to be present. The campaign provides a platform to the people to directly lodge complaints with the chief minister. Anyone can reach out to her by calling ‘9137091370’ or by logging onto www.didikebolbo.com, with their suggestions and problems....... more than 30 lakh people have made calls, expressing their suggestions and grievances. Banerjee was impressed with the impact on the ground level...... More than 250 party workers are engaged round the clock not only to ensure each and every grievance/suggestion reaches the chief minister but also list them in various trackers and buckets for swift resolution. As suggested by Kishor, there are separate buckets for all the government schemes for people and multiple trackers for each to keep an eye on how many issues have been resolved and the time taken.



2024: Possible Lok Sabha Composition

BJP: 150

Anti-BJP Coalition (ABC):
Congress: 60
JD (U): 50 (25 in Bihar, 25 outside Bihar)
Trianmool Congress: 40
Shiv Sena: 20
LJP (Paswan): 6
RJD: 10
AIADMK: 20
DMK: 15
YSR Congress: 20
BJD: 20
BSP: 30
SP: 30
NCP: 10
CPI (M): 10
TRS: 10
TDP: 5
AAP: 4
Total: 360
Others: 33


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Thursday, October 22, 2015

बिहार ने देश को PM दिया, अब लग रहा है Opposition Leader भी देगा

उड़ती चिड़िया को हल्दी लगाती है बिहारका वोटर 
-- श्री लालु प्रसाद जादव 



Mid-campaign blues for BJP
The Prime Minister's campaign outings in Bihar are given a break, then rescheduled. The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah monopoly on billboards ends and a cast of local leaders is mounted on hoardings to sell Brand BJP. After weeks of being left to their devices, allies are suddenly called on board for consultations....... If there is a palpable mid-campaign flutter in the BJP backrooms, there may be good reason for it. Key strategies employed by the party have either not worked or backfired.... BJP strategists privately admit the Yadav consolidation behind Lalu in this election is far greater than during the 2014 Lok Sabha election........ RSS boss Mohan Bhagwat may only have added to the growing ranks behind Nitish and Lalu by his repeated calls for reviewing reservations for the underprivileged....... more than half its tickets have gone to upper castes, who form the core base of the party. It has not been able to credibly fight off speculation that it should it win, it will return Bihar to "upper caste raj" after a quarter century. ...... To Bihar's empowered, and majority, Mandal classes, that is not a palatable prospect. If they are hearing Lalu's " amir-garib, adga-pichhda" call, and rallying around, it is a sign they are not willing to give up their power stakes. ...... The BJP tried, with fair determination, to counter the Bhagwat effect with beef. For a period, three senior partymen - Sushil Modi, Giriraj Singh and Dharmendra Pradhan - were tweeting daily and energetically on cow and cow consumption, as if it had become their chief issue. ......

In an uncharacteristic - and desperate - departure from form and image, Sushil Modi even dared Lalu to drink cow-urine in public to prove his love for the bovine classes.

..... after having been showcased a fortnight or so, beef is off the forefront of the BJP's Bihar agenda. The beef spike was among the things that belied the BJP's claim it was contesting the election solely on development. It was also a clue that the party was lost for a clear strategy in Bihar. ...... The Modi wave of 2014 had arched over the many complex caste equations of Bihar. But this is not 2014 redux. To try and enact a repeat of the 2014 Modi-centric poll too may not be working. ...... Unlike the discredited UPA, Nitish is a strong incumbent even after two terms in office, and rides a pro-incumbency sentiment for work done during his years in office. ...... Between Nitish, Lalu and the Congress, the Mahagathbandhan could also ensure minimal rupture of the Muslim vote .......

Modi continues to gather huge crowds but he isn't creating ripples..... but Modi isn't a candidate in this election. And he hasn't made it clear to Biharis who his candidate is.

Lies and half-truths: How Nitish outsmarted RSS, BJP in their own game in Bihar
Politics, like war, is an art of deception. Disinformation and rumours are essential in the arsenal that political parties build to demolish rivals. The RSS-BJP may have earned a formidable reputation, or notoriety, at least in general perception, for deploying falsehoods and half-truths to create a smokescreen to attain political goals, but in Bihar it appears to have met more than a match in Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav....... There is little doubt that Nitish Kumar has been resorting to convenient half-truths to deepen the fault-line that exists between Narendra Modi and Sushil Modi. Nitish, who was associated with the BJP for over 17 years, is quite aware of the frictions within various groups of the party. There is little doubt that Sushil Modi fully endorsed the idea of keeping Narendra Modi away from the campaign in Bihar elections to avoid consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of Lalu Yadav. But Sushil was not alone as he found unqualified support from the central leadership. LK Advani, Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley found merit in the logic of “keeping away Narendra Modi from Bihar” and deliberately excluded him from the campaign till 2010........ in those days, Sushil Modi was seen as an extension of Nitish Kumar. And there are several instances to prove that till Nitish parted his company with the BJP, he enjoyed unflinching loyalty of Sushil Modi as deputy chief minister. This was evident when Narendra Modi, after winning 2012 assembly election, walked into a meeting of the national development council (NDC) and was greeted by central ministers and all chief ministers except Nitish Kumar at Vigyan Bhavan. Sushil Modi who accompanied Nitish Kumar at the NDC also chose to ignore Narendra Modi and avoided greeting him. The apparent reason for Sushil Modi’s insouciance was his belief that it would be too difficult for the Gujarat strongman to emerge at the national scene given the perception of him being a polarising personality....... As the Bihar battle appears to be in full gear, Nitish Kumar has been strategically washing off his own intransigence towards Narendra Modi by pinning the blame on Sushil Modi. The move is clearly aimed at driving his adversaries in disarray by sowing seeds of doubts within the enemy’s camp. In Bihar election, Nitish Kumar and his team successfully created many smokescreens to cover up their real political objectives.

More recently the JD (U)-RJD successfully spread the rumours that Narendra Modi’s rallies were called off in various places in view of the imminent defeat

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Friday, July 10, 2015

How Nitish Lost Momentum

The Next Chief Minister Of Bihar?
Sushil Modi
Janakpur Patna Kolkata Industrial Corridor
Sushil Modi In Janakpurdham
Advantage Sushil Modi
सुशील मोदी क्या कह रहे हैं?
बिहार के उभरते चेहरे
Bihar Is Now 55-45

English: Bihar Districts
English: Bihar Districts (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Upto coining the phrase Bihar@2025, he had it. Laloo had just come around. And his momentum was reflected in the in-fighting that had started in the BJP camp.

But then. Nitish has made no effort to elaborate on Bihar@2025. What is it? What is the roadmap? What is the vision? Just one word will not do. He might have organized a conclave, called in top minds in Bihar to pontificate. वैसे ही announce कर के छोड़ दिया। पुल का उदघाटन कर दिया, पुल बनाया नहीं।

Also, Laloo has gone to his old ways by haggling on what seats he should get. He wants to get most of the Yadav-Muslim seats. Whereas a good point to start would have been to let Nitish have 100 of the 112 seats he already has in his dicky.

Right now it is advantage BJP: 55-45.

The biggest mistake Nitish made was he took Advani's bait. When Advani warned of a possible "emergency," Nitish plunged head in and took a bite. That act is not Bihar@2025. A Bihar@2025 vision statement is one that makes peace with Narendra Modi being at the helm in Delhi, not because he is the better candidate, that is irrelevant, but because he is the choice of the people of Bihar. लोकतंत्र का मैंडेट है। जनता जनार्दन होती है। अगर आज नरेन्द्र मोदी दिल्ली में बैठे हैं तो बिहारियों का सबसे बड़ा योगदान है। उत्तर प्रदेश was a low hanging fruit, Bihar was the real battle in 2014.

It is like this. Laloo was doing excellent as Railway Minister but he had very few MPs. That is when he started saying how he wants to be PM and all. And Rahul Gandhi got rid of him. You don't become PM with 10 MPs, or 20. You have to self-assess, or Rahul is going to do it for you.

अभी नीतिश opposition लीडर बनने के रास्ते पर चल रहे हैं। सुमो का पलड़ा भारी पड़ गया है।



Grand coalition in Bihar has failed, says BJP
He said that JD(U) leader and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s slogan, “Barta Bihar, fir ayenge Nitish”, will now turn into “Darta bihar, ab nahin Nitish”.
Janata Parivar a Damp Squib: Amit Shah After BJP's Win in Bihar Legislative Council Elections
Mr Shah said, "The countdown to BJP's victory in Bihar has started today. The BJP-led NDA has won 13 out of 24 seats while it earlier held only five seats. There was a lot of hype around Janata Parivar in Bihar but people have proved that it is a damp squib."
BJP Deals Blow to Nitish-Lalu in Legislative Council Elections Months Ahead of Bihar Polls
As the BJP celebrated, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar said, "This was not an election where the common people vote. It was a council election. If the BJP wants to be so happy about it, let them be. They anyway like to live in this fantasy world." ..... "This is not a semi-final to the assembly elections," said a spokesperson of his Janata Dal United. ..... Elected members of the assembly and local bodies like panchayats vote in the legislative council elections. ...... The JDU, which has won five of the alliance's 10 seats, reportedly assesses that Lalu Yadav, who has won four, has not been successful in transferring his votes to the alliance. That will be nagging worry as the assembly elections approach.

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