बुश का बघदाद (२)

बुश का बघदाद

अमरिका पर बिन लादेन ने बाद में हमला किया। उससे पहले हमला बोला बुश ने। Record Surplus को Record Deficit बना दिया। इतना बड़ा टैक्स कट किया कि देश सीधे मुह के बल जा के गिर पड़ी।

जनता मुर्ख। उसने वैसा ही मैंडेट माँगा था। जनता ने दे दिया। अमेरिका के गरीब जनता को social issues पर इस तरह डिवाइड कर दिए हैं ये नियमित अपने अहित में वोट देते रहते हैं।

९/११ हुवा। तो अफ़ग़ानिस्तान पर वार करो। कि पर्ल हार्बर पर अटैक किया जापान ने और तुम ने अटैक कर दिया इंडोनेशिया? Looking Tokyo Going London? अभी भी ४०% अमेरिकी कहते हैं ९/११ किया सद्दाम ने। ४०% वो वही हैं जो नक़्शे पर प्रशांत महासागर नहीं ढूँढ सकते। २०-३०% अमरीकी कहते हैं ओबामा मुसलमान है।

कितने लोग मरे वो भी हिसाब करो लेकिन ओ अलग करो। इस ब्लॉग पोस्ट में सिर्फ पैसा की बात करते हैं। एक से १० लाख के बीच लोग मरे सब मिला के। युद्ध के कारण जो सिविल वॉर हो गया उसके मृतक भी तो गिनोगे। जितने अमरिकी ९/११ में मरे उससे जयादा इराक में।

युद्ध का बिल बुश का तीन ट्रिलियन डॉलर। वो इतना ज्यादा पैसा है लोग सोंचना ही छोड़ देते हैं। कहीं १०० डॉलर पॉकेटमारी होती है तो पुलिस बुलाओ। एक लाख डॉलर का फ्रॉड होता है तो पुलिस बुलाओ केस करो। मिलियन डॉलर करप्शन को लफड़ा हो जाता है। लेकिन तीन ट्रिलियन। उसको तो छोड़ दो।

ट्रिलियन से नीचे का तो गप्प ही नहीं है बुश काल में। पहले तो एक ट्रिलियन सबसे धनाढ्य लोगो को बाँट दिया। बाँट ही दिया। लो, मुफ्त का पैसा। मेरे बाप की कमाई। तीन ट्रिलियन युद्ध में खर्च। MasterCard swipe करो। खर्चा कौन भरेगा? चीन किस कामके? वॉल स्ट्रीट पर ट्रिलियन डॉलर का फ्रॉड। तो अर्थतंत्र जब तास के घर के माफिक गिरा ........ बिन लादेन ने तो सिर्फ वर्ल्ड ट्रेड सेंटर गिराया। बुश ने पुरे अर्थतंत्र को ही गिरा दिया। अर्थतंत्र कोलॅप्स हुवा तो १३ ट्रिलियन डॉलर ऐसे गायब हुवा जैसे पीसी सरकार ने आ के गायब कर दिया हो। सफाचट। Wiped out, gone forever.

यार, किसी की भी ब्रेकिंग पॉइंट होती है। अमेरिकी अर्थतंत्र का भी था, वैज्ञानिक बुश ने पता लगा के छोड़ा।

अमेरिकी सरकार का एक साल का बजेट होता है तीन ट्रिलियन। यानि कि बहुत बड़ा अमाउंट है जिसकी मैं बात कर रहा।
अभी कहानी ख़त्म नहीं हुवी। तो स्टिमुलस कह के ७०० बिलियन खर्चे करने पड़े। करना चाहिए तीन ट्रिलियन लेकिन बुश के पार्टी ने होने नहीं दिया। तो देशको monetary स्टिमुलस के रास्ते जाने पड़े। उसका मतलब प्रिंटिंग प्रेस चालु करो और पैसा छापो। Basically पैसा छापो और बड़े बड़े बैंक को मुफ्त में दे दो। जीरो इंटरेस्ट रेट पर। सब तरफ बुश के दोस्त ही दोस्त।

Quantitative Easing

Quantitative easing is distinguished from standard central banking monetary policies, which are usually enacted by buying or selling government bonds on the open market to reach a desired target for the interbank interest rate. However, if a recession or depression continues even when a central bank has lowered interest rates to nearly zero, the central bank can no longer lower interest rates. The central bank may then implement a set of tactics known as quantitative easing. This policy is often considered a last resort to stimulate the economy. ...... A central bank enacts quantitative easing by purchasing—without reference to the interest rate—a set quantity of bonds or other financial assets on financial markets from private financial institutions...... Quantitative easing, and monetary policy in general, can only be carried out if the central bank controls the currency used in the country. The central banks of countries in the Eurozone, for example, cannot unilaterally expand their money supply and thus cannot employ quantitative easing. They must instead rely on the European Central Bank (ECB) to enact monetary policy.

How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End

The U.S. government’s response to the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession included some of the most aggressive fiscal and monetary policies in history. The response was multifaceted and bipartisan, involving the Federal Reserve, Congress, and two administrations. Yet almost every one of these policy initiatives remain controversial to this day, with critics calling them misguided, ineffective or both. The debate over these policies is crucial because, with the economy still weak, more government support may be needed, as seen recently in both the extension of unemployment benefits and the Fed’s consideration of further easing. ....... without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation. ...... When we divide these effects into two components—one attributable to the fiscal stimulus and the other attributable to financial-market policies such as the TARP, the bank stress tests and the Fed’s quantitative easing—we estimate that the latter was substantially more powerful than the former.

बुश का बघदाद

MasterCard Classic (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

बुश जब बघदाद आया तो सबसे पहले क्या काम किया कि ट्रांसफार्मर उड़ाओ, पानी टंकी उड़ाओ। सद्दाम कहीं भी छुपा हो सकता है। अजीब आदमी है। ये नहीं सोंचा लोग पानी पीते होंगे। मरुभूमि इलाका। तबतो सद्दाम ने पानी टंकी लगवायी होगी। कि पानी टंकी लगा दो नहीं तो लोग बगावत कर देंगे। प्रेस्टीज इशू है। अगर लोग बगावत कर देते हैं तो फिर ये जो इमेज है कि सद्दाम डिक्टेटर है वो तो गयी काम से। तो बुश ने उड़ा दिया। सबसे पहले। उसको कोई परवाह नहीं कि बगावत हो सकती है।

बुलडोज़र लगाने में टाइम लगता है क्या? दो चार रोज में युद्ध ख़त्म। तो फिर तुरंत उन्ही ट्रांसफार्मर और पानी टंकी के लिए अपने करीबी दोस्तों को मेगा बिलियन का बिना कम्पटीशन का कॉन्ट्रैक्ट दे दिया। देश लिबरेट कर दिया अब लगा दो ट्रांसफार्मर, लगा दो पानी टंकी। इराकी भी क्या याद करेंगे। 

राजनीति में एक पुराना नियम है: Follow The Money. अगर आपको राजनीति समझ नहीं आती और समझना हो तो ये फोर्मुला लगा दो बहुत राजनीति आपको समझ में आ जाएगी। 

कुछ हैं conspiracy theorists वेबसाइट बगैरह बना के बैठे हैं कहते हैं ९/११ बुश ने किया, it was an inside job ---- अजीब लोग हैं। बिन लादेन को इस बात का इतना बुरा लगता था वो कभी क्रेडिट लेने से नहीं चुकता था। वीडियो निकालता था कि ईद मुबारक और अंत में जाते जाते ९ दो ११ के बारें थोड़ा हिंट दे देता था। फिर से अटैक की तयारी करो या ऐसा कुछ। ताकि अगर कोई गलतफहमी हो तो दुर हो जाए। 

९/११ बुश ने नहीं किया। बिन लादेन ने किया। लेकिन जिसको हम आप और ओबामा Great Recession कहते हैं और जिसे बुश और उनके दोस्त लोग Grand Recession कहते हैं --- वो लेकिन inside job था ---- fully documented. 

अमेरिका का अपना पैसा तो था नहीं। चीन से उधार में लो और इराक में खर्चा करो। बुश ने क्रेडिट कार्ड स्वाइप कर के युद्ध किया। Paid for by MasterCard. ..... कहते हैं There are somethings money can't buy, for everything else there is MasterCard. तो बघदाद का पानी टंकी बगैरह वो MasterCard केटेगरी के थे। 

अगर आप के देश का बजेट हो १०० बिलियन और आप ३३ बिलियन युद्ध में होम दो तो क्या होगा? उसी हिसाब से अगर आप के देश का बजेट हो तीन ट्रिलियन तो? 

नेपाली में कहते हैं भ्वांग। मैथिलि में कहते हैं भुम। हिंदी में क्या कहते हैं? 

तो ये सबके सामने हो रहा था तो वाल स्ट्रीट वालो ने फोटोकॉपी मार दिया। घर गिरबी रख के लोग लोन लेते हैं। लेकिन एक ही घर पर चार बार पाँच बार लोन लो तो क्या होगा? घर बैंक का है आप का अभी हुवा भी नहीं लेकिन आप ने लोन निकाल लिया। बैंक ने वैसे ढेर सारे घरो का बनडलिंग कर दिया और किसी दूसरे बैंक को होलसेल में बेच दिया। वैसे ही दो चार राउंड हो गया। उसको कहा गया innovation ---- यानि कि हम financial instruments बना रहे हैं। सब लोग अपना मंथली पेमेंट करते रहे तब तक पता नहीं चलता। लेकिन कुछ लोग ऐसे निकले घर खरीदने के स्थिति में नहीं थे फिर भी डाउन पेमेंट कर चुके थे। पियर प्रेशर। नौकरी चली गयी। मंथली पेमेंट बंद। पैसा रहेगा तब न दिजिएगा। आप बुश हैं जो चीन से उधार लोगे। 

तो पुरा घर तास के पत्ते के घर के तरह गिर गया ----- now THAT was an inside job. वो बिन लादेन ने नहीं किया। हालांकि वो क्रेडिट लेना चाहता था। उसका था कि अमेरिका को ऐसे युद्ध में घिंचो कि वो afford ना कर सके। 

Great Recession में कितने ट्रिलियन डॉलर ध्वस्त हो गए अभी तक हिसाब हो रहा है। बहुत मिडिल क्लास और लोअर मिडिल क्लास अमेरिकी का पेंशन गायब गया। उनकी क्या होगी वो तो जब वो रिटायर होंगे तब पता चलेगा। 

अमेरिका में भी बहुत घपला है।

चिनिया कहते हैं non-interference ----- वो लेकिन कह रहे हैं युद्ध बहुत खर्चिला होता है अच्छा बिजनेस नहीं। युद्ध से अच्छा बिजनेस हैं लोगों को लोन दो, विशेष कर के उन्हें जो युद्ध करना चाहते हैं।

टेक्सास में काऊबॉय कल्चर है।

Boots On The Ground?

If ISIS is going to target "soft" targets anywhere and everywhere, I think the western powers might be forced to think in terms of boots on the ground. We might be about to enter a bloody, violent, expensive phase of the War On Terror. There is obviously no easy way out. Bush II stands validated a little.

If the Taliban in power in Afghanistan is a no no, why is ISIS in power anywhere an option, right? ISIS commands a territory, it commands major revenue streams. It has a global reach the likes of which the Taliban or the Al Qaeda never did. And its intentions are clear and apocalyptic.

But even the boots on the ground idea could come with major aerial moves. It does not have to be a major operation like Bush II going into Iraq. I don't know. I am no military expert.

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A Comprehensive War

In the book, Blair writes that he hoped that George W. Bush would win a second term as President of the United States in 2004. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Russia is unfinished business. Just like George W Bush prematurely declared Mission Accomplished after a few days of airstrikes in Iraq, it can be argued Bush Sr. did the same thing when the Soviet Union collapsed. It was a tectonic milestone, no doubt, but unless Russia becomes a democracy, it will keep causing trouble.

Suddenly there are two broad fronts. There is Russia. And there is ISIS, which is in a stronger shape than the Al Qaeda ever was, with the same ill intentions to match. It would not flinch to unleash a biological attack somewhere, it would detonate a dirty bomb if it could. The dangers are grave. Obama might have similarly prematurely declared the death of Al Qaeda with the death of Bin Laden.

I happen to think the top idea here is what Google has. Beam internet from the skies and flood the earth with cheap Android phones. Google already has the prototype. I think the US government should massively scale it. If Google is thinking one billion, the US government should pump in 100 billion into the same effort. That would go a long way to the spread of democracy.

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Go Vote For Mitt Romney

If you think eight years of George W Bush were better than eight years of Bill Clinton, then go vote for Mitt Romney. The choice is clear. I would not want to mislead you.

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Bill Clinton Has Been Super

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Bill Clinton Has Been Super

At some level this campaign is a choice between eight years of Bill Clinton and eight years of George W Bush. Those two double terms best exemplify what the two competing governing philosophies are all about. Bill Clinton's presidency was good for the poor, good for the middle class, and good for the wealthy.

Bill Clinton will go down in history as a great former president for his foundation work and for what he has been doing for Barack Obama this year. He has been a great help.

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Karl Rove Is Riding The Gallup Horse
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Barack Obama's Greatness

Jonathan Chait is making tremendous sense.

The Case for Obama: Why He Is a Great President. Yes, Great.

I supported Obama because I judged him to have a keen analytical mind, grasping both the possibilities and the limits of activist government, and possessed of excellent communicative talents. I thought he would nudge government policy in an incrementally better direction. I consider his presidency an overwhelming success. ........ Obama’s résumé of accomplishments is broad and deep, running the gamut from economic to social to foreign policy. The general thrust of his reforms, especially in economic policy, has been a combination of politically radical and ideologically moderate. The combination has confused liberals into thinking of Obamaism as a series of sad half-measures, and conservatives to deem it socialism, but the truth is neither. Obama’s agenda has generally hewed to the consensus of mainstream economists and policy experts. What makes the agenda radical is that, historically, vast realms of policy had been shaped by special interests for their own benefit. Plans to rationalize those things, to write laws that make sense, molder on think-tank shelves for years, even generations. They are often boring. But then Obama, in a frenetic burst of activity, made many of them happen all at once. .......... It is noteworthy that four of the best decisions that Obama made during his presidency ran against the advice of much of his own administration. ....... On Libya, Obama’s staff presented him with options either to posture ineffectually or do nothing; he alone forced them to draw up an option that would prevent a massacre. And Obama overruled some cautious advisers and decided to kill Osama bin Laden. ............ The latter three decisions are all highly popular now, but all of them carried the risk of inflicting a mortal political wound, like Bill Clinton’s health-care failure and Jimmy Carter’s attempted raid into Iran. (George W. Bush, presented with a similar option, did not strike bin Laden.) In making these calls, Obama displayed judgment and nerve. ............. the pervasive disillusionment felt by Obama’s supporters. It is a sentiment that has shadowed every Democratic president since Franklin Roosevelt, and even Roosevelt provoked long bouts of agony and disillusionment among his supporters. ..... Obama can boast a record of accomplishment that bests any president since Roosevelt, and has fewer demerits on his record than any of them, including Roosevelt. The only president that comes close in gross positive accomplishment is Lyndon Johnson, whose successes were overwhelmed by his failures to such a degree that he abandoned his reelection campaign. ........ September 14, 2008, when the U.S. financial system imploded. ... Obama managed to stabilize the financial system and, through the stimulus, avert a total collapse in consumer demand. ...... Voters reward or punish incumbents based on the weather or the success of local sports teams. ...... In 2004, Romney dismissed any attempt to blame George W. Bush for the decline of jobs under his watch as “poppycock.” ....... the Republicans' leadership in Congress grasped early on that its path to returning to power required Obama to fail, and that they could help bring this about by denying his initiatives any support ......... What can be said without equivocation is that Obama has proven himself morally, intellectually, temperamentally, and strategically. In my lifetime, or my parents’, he is easily the best president.

The Case Against Romney: At Heart, He’s a Delusional One-Percenter

The different iterations of his career differ so wildly, yet comport so perfectly with his political ambitions of the moment, that it is simply impossible to separate his panders from his actual beliefs, the means from the ends. ....... what Romney believes in above all is himself ...... when his campaign appeared hopeless, Romney approaches politics like a business deal: “Just do and say what you need to do to get the deal done, and then when it’s done, do what you know actually needs to be done to make the company a success.” ...... Romney truly believes in his own abilities ... He is a highly intelligent, accomplished individual. ...... that, once in office, he will craft sensible and data-driven, and perhaps even bipartisan, solutions to our problems — surely accounts for his political resurrection ....... a vote for Romney is a vote for his party ..... The party has almost no capacity to respond to the conditions and problems that actually exist in the world. ...... In the face of a consensus for short-term fiscal stimulus, they have turned back to ancient Austrian doctrines and urged immediate spending cuts. In the face of rising global temperatures and a hardening scientific consensus on the role of carbon emissions, their energy plan is to dig up and burn every last molecule of coal and oil as rapidly as possible. ....... Ryan’s frequently proclaimed belief that society is divided between “makers” and “takers.” It also informed Romney’s infamous diatribe against the lazy, freeloading 47 percenters. It is a grotesque, cruel, and disqualifying ethical framework for governing. ...... Both his fealty to his party and his belief in his own abilities point in the same direction: the entitlement of the superrich to govern the country.

Romney’s Nevada Bluff

Obama’s lead in the electoral college is persistent, but rests on very narrow advantages. ...... the polls miss the impact both of Reid’s turnout operation and the strength of the Latino vote. (Most polls don’t ask questions in Spanish, and thus miss the Spanish-speaking vote, which is expanding in size.) ...... their leaks about internal polling and the electoral map are a cultivated plan to project a false optimism.

Romney Says He’s Winning — It’s a Bluff

Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. .... Last week, for instance, Romney’s campaign blared out the news that it was pulling resources out of North Carolina. The battleground was shifting! Romney on the offensive! On closer inspection, it turned out that Romney was shifting exactly one staffer. ....... 2000 .. Bush even spent the final days stumping in California, supposedly because he was so sure of victory he wanted an icing-on-the-cake win in a deep blue state. ........ Adding to his base of uncontested states, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin would give Obama 271 electoral votes. According to the current polling averages compiled at fivethirtyeight.com, Obama leads Nevada by 3.5 percent, Ohio by 2.9 percent, and Wisconsin by 4 percent. Should any of those fail, Virginia and Colorado are nearly dead even. ....... he is leading, his lead is not declining, and the widespread perception that Romney is pulling ahead is Romney’s campaign suckering the press corps with a confidence game.

A Zombie Is a Slave Forever

For the slave under French rule in Haiti — then Saint-Domingue — in the 17th and 18th centuries, life was brutal: hunger, extreme overwork and cruel discipline were the rule. Slaves often could not consume enough calories to allow for normal rates of reproduction; what children they did have might easily starve.

Gov. Christie: Obama has been 'outstanding'

Republican Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey normally isn't effusive about President Obama. .... The two politicians will tour storm damage together on Wednesday afternoon..... Obama will join Christie to talk to New Jersey residents affected by the superstorm and to thank first responders.

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