Bill Clinton Took Three Years

The guy who gave America its longest peacetime economic expansion took three years to show he was up to something. 1993 was dud, 1994 was dud, 1995 was a dud. But US in 1992 is not India in 2014. The US was already a First World Country at the time. There was no fundamental infrastructure to build. The Indian democracy is so much more complex, one of the smartest Americans ever to become ambassador to India simply referred to it as "the imponderables of Indian politics," JFK's John Kenneth Galbraith.

Narendra Modi has been doing excellent work. At a fundamental level. The GST bill alone will give India another two points in terms of growth. And with everything else he has been doing, I see the economy going past a 10% growth rate before he has to go to the people again in 2019. If the growth rate is past 10%, he will see re-election. I have no doubts in my mind. Right now I don't see how the growth rate will not go past 10%. It has to. He has been doing excellent work. But India is such a big country, so complex, so democratic, the work will take some time to show visible bounce. The challenge is not to get it past 10%, the challenge is to keep it past 10% for 30 years. Modi doing 20 years would make sense.

I will give the guy two more years before I start judging him. People who can't see the people gave him a five year mandate last year don't know the ABC of politics. Bihari voters are smart. They had zero doubts about whether Modi was going to shift from Delhi to Patna. So they picked the guy who is the best man for the job. Nitish Kumar is every bit as skillful a politician.

Bill Clinton is not a good comparison for Narendra Modi. Clinton had it easy by Modi's standards. A more appropriate comparison would be Deng Xiaoping. Deng took much longer, and his work really started showing visible results only after he was dead and gone. At least Indians don't need to wait that long. 2019 will have been long enough for Modi.

The BJP is slated to lose almost all, quite possibly all, state elections next year. And that is nothing to do with Modi. That is to do with state dynamics in each case. The media should take lessons in democracy from the sophisticated Bihari voters who seem to know the difference between a national election and a state election.

The only time Modi matters again at the booth is in 2019.

Narendra Modi: The Limits of a Political Rock Star
After a soaring 2014, this was the year the Indian prime minister and the BJP fell to earth.

If 2014 was the year that saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity soar to an all-time high, events in 2015 underscored rising voter disillusionment. While Modi is still India’s most popular political leader, his government’s disappointing performance over the past year has impacted the electoral fortunes of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Eighteen months after the BJP’s spectacular victory, Modi and the BJP no longer appear invincible....... Two important reform bills – one to streamline India’s federal and state sales tax and the other to facilitate land acquisition – hang in limbo. The government has blamed opposition obstructionism in parliament for blocking the legislation. But it has only itself to blame. Not only did it subject the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government (2004-2014) to similar obstructionism, it has also arrogantly attempted at pushing legislation down the opposition’s throat. ...... the party was routed in the Bihar assembly election........ Close on the heels of that crushing defeat was a setback in elections to local bodies in Gujarat. Here the BJP lost control over rural bodies and the iron-grip it once enjoyed over municipalities weakened. This setback was all the more painful for the party as Gujarat has been its impregnable fortress, with the party having won every election in the state since 2000. Importantly, this is Modi’s home state. ........ and another to provide a bank account for every household to end “financial untouchability.” ........ Economist Rajiv Kumar exulted over India finally having “a ‘real’ prime minister with his hand firmly on the steering wheel.” Modi’s “leading from the front and laying down the behavioral norms, targets and programs, has shored up sagging morale and ostensibly brought new purpose to the government machinery,” he said. ....... Modi’s decisive image stems from the fact that he makes decisions quickly and that is because he makes them on his own, a retired bureaucrat based in Delhi said, adding that Modi is the undisputed boss of the government and the BJP. All decisions related to policy and programs are made by him. Rarely are his ministers consulted or even kept in the loop. Meetings with ministers and BJP parliamentarians are monologues with Modi doing all the talking. Nobody disagrees with him. Or rather they don’t dare air their differences with him. ..... Critics like historian Ramachandra Guha have described the Modi government as “anti-intellectual,” having “absolute contempt for scholars, literature and the arts. It is not contribution to the field but proximity to the Sangh Parivar, a family of Hindu right-wing organizations of which the BJP is a part, that determines appointments to key posts. ....... Most alarming is the Modi government’s failure or rather reluctance to address mounting communal violence being unleashed by members of the Parivar. Churches have been attacked and violence against Muslims has increased. .......

Those inciting communal hatred are not fringe elements but governors, union ministers, chief ministers, parliamentarians – all belonging to the BJP or subscribing to its Hindutva ideology. Their hateful speeches are made in the chambers of the Lok Sabha, in front of television cameras, and at public rallies. Yet they have gone unchecked.

.... Modi’s grand plans for the economy. .... his party’s electoral debacles signal that the Indian voter cannot be taken for granted. The “rock-star” receptions that the Parivar organized for Modi during his visits abroad may have impressed his die-hard fans at home and his cheerleaders among the Indian diaspora, but for millions of voters, mere pledges aren’t enough. ..... Political commentator Shekhar Gupta says that he needs to get out of campaign mode and get down to “calmer, old-fashioned governance.”

४% १०% १५%

English: Map of Africa indicating Gross Domestic Product per capita. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

World map showing GDP real growth rates for 2010. CIA world factbook estimateshttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2003rank.html as of Januay 2011. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

World map showing countries by nominal GDP per capita in 2008, IMF estimates as of April 2009. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

अमरिका ब्रिटेन जैसे देशो ने कभी १०% किया ही नहीं। वो तो ४-५ करते रहे, वही की दशकों शताब्दियों तक किया। Slow and steady wins the race.

४% से आपको doubling करने में अठारह साल लग जाएंगे। १०% से ७ साल और १५% से ५ साल। अब जरा हिसाब करो। कुछ मैंने यहाँ किया है। तो आज के भारत में ५% is failure rate ---- F for Five, F for Failure. जब कि आजादी के बाद ४० साल भारत ने ३% किया --- दुनिया में मजाक उड़ाया जाता था -- Hindu rate of growth कह कह के।

चीन ने जब १०% किया तो बहुतों ने कहा वे झुठ बोल रहे हैं ---- हम गोरों ने तो ५% से ज्यादा कभी किया नहीं, ये चीन के बन्दर ये तो जन्म से ही inferior लोग ये हमारे से ज्यादा कैसे कर सकते हैं?

वैसे डेंग श्याओ पिंग कोइ बहुत तीसमारखा नहीं था। साधारण सा आदमी था। लेकिन उसके पास common sense था, व्यवहारिक आदमी था, और वो इतना समझता था कि मेरे से भले अच्छाई हो ना हो मैं अपने से बुराई ना होने दुं। उसके उस attitude से सरकार के बीचमें आ जाने की बात कम होती गयी। उसने शुरू में एक ही तरकीब लगाई -- उसने कहा सबसे पहले सब जगह रेल की पटरी बिछाओ। बस इतना। भारत के तो कोने कोने में रेल की पटरी पहले से ही है और था --- चीन में नहीं था। तो डेंग श्याओ पिंग को शुरू में बहुत ज्यादा समझ नहीं थी लेकिन इतना जरूर था कि रेल चाहिए तब ही देश प्रगति करेगा। डेंग श्याओ पिंग से ज्यादा समझ और ज्यादा जानकारी तो भारत के प्रत्येक मुख्य मंत्री के पास है। जो जानकारी नहीं हो वो इंटरनेट से ले सकते हैं --- डेंग श्याओ पिंग के पास कौन सा इंटरनेट था?

अभी सारे दुनिया का GDP है ७७ ट्रिलियन ----- मैं भारत को २५६ ट्रिलियन तक पहुँचाने की बात कर रहा हुँ।

४% १०% १५%  ----- बहुत फर्क पड़ता है double digit growth rate से। सिर्फ GDP मत देखो, जनसंख्या भी देखो। मुख्य बात देखनी होती है Per Capita Income. नहीं तो गर्व करोगे कि अरे हम तो ब्रिटेन के लगभग बराबर हैं -- और वहाँ है कि लोग भुखे मर रहे हैं।

Bihar best performing state in terms of growth rate: Survey
India growing faster than China is like saying Bihar's growth quicker than Gujarat

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the GDP growth forecast for the current financial year a few days back. It expects the Indian economy to grow by 7.4 percent during the course of the year......This is significantly higher than the GDP growth of 5.5 percent forecast by the RBI. The ministry has moved on to a new method of calculating the GDP, which has led to this massive jump. In fact, in late January, the GDP growth for the last financial year (2013-2014) was revised to 6.9 percent using this new method. The GDP growth as per the old method had been at 5 percent. ...... India's GDP last year was $1.87 trillion. On this base it is expected to grow by 7.4 percent. China's GDP last year was almost five times larger at $9.24 trillion. So China has a significant larger GDP than that of India. Even if the Chinese GDP grows by 1.5 percent it would be adding as much to economic output as India would at 7.4 percent..... Only four times between 1980 and 2013, has the Indian GDP growth been faster than that of China. .... in 17 years during the period under consideration the Chinese economy has seen double digit growth rates. On the other hand the Indian economy has grown by greater than 10 percent only once since 1980. This was in 2010 when it grew by 10.3 percent. The Chinese managed to beat us even then by growing by 10.4 percent. ......... The gross state domestic product for Gujarat in 2012-13 (the latest data that is available and at 2004-05 constant prices) was at Rs 4,27,219 crore. It had grown at a rate of 7.96 percent in comparison to 2011-12. .. Now compare this to Bihar, where the gross state domestic product had grown by 10.73 percent in 2012-13, which was higher than the GDP growth rate of Gujarat. In fact, between 2006-07 and 2012-13, the economic growth rate of Bihar was higher than that of Gujarat, on five out of the total seven occasions......But the question is on what base? In 2012-2013, the gross state domestic product of Bihar stood at Rs 1,58,971 crore. As mentioned earlier the gross state domestic product of Gujarat was at Rs 4,27,219 crore or nearly 2.7 times. It is important to further point out that Gujarat has a population of 6.27 crore people and the population of Bihar is 9.9 crore. Hence, Bihar has been sharing a significantly lower GDP with a larger number of people. .... Like Bihar's economy has a long way to catch up to that of Gujarat, the same stands true of India's economy when compared to that of China.

Bihar best performing state in terms of growth rate: Survey

The survey also states that in terms of poverty estimates Bihar, which had the highest poverty headcount ratio (HCR) in 2004-05 moved to first place in 2011-12 with the HCR at 33.7 per cent relegating Odisha to second place.

Bihar records 11.95% growth, highest among states

Despite global economic slowdown and sagging domestic demand, Bihar has managed to record 11.95% annual growth rate, the highest among all the states, during the 11th Plan period. ..... But the state's per capita income of Rs 25,653 at current prices is still far behind the national average of Rs 60,972 in 2011-12. "Our gross state domestic product (GSDP) at 2004-05 prices is Rs 1.52 lakh crore which is estimated to rise to Rs 2.53 lakh crore at current prices in 2011-12," Modi said. ..... The problem of low income in Bihar is accentuated by considerable disparity across the districts in terms of their per capita income. In 2009-10, Patna, with per capita income of Rs 55,539, Munger with Rs18,669 and Bhagalpur with Rs14,396 have been the most prosperous districts whereas Sheohar has Rs 5,552, Madhepura (Rs 7.161) and Supaul (Rs 7,213) remained at the bottom. ...... Modi said the state government had an outstanding debt of Rs 44,475 crore in 2007-08, which is 39% of its GSDP. By 2011-12, it declined substantially to 24% even though the outstanding debt increased to Rs 60,551 crore. Incidentally, it was 53% in 2001-02. ..... growth in the state's own tax revenue, increasing from Rs 5,086 crore in 2007-08 to Rs 12,612 crore in 2011-12. The non-tax revenue has jumped from Rs 526 crore to Rs 890 crore during the same period. "The state's own tax revenue has increased to 4.99% of the GSDP," said principal finance secretary Rameshwar Singh. ....... "The image of Bihar has undergone a change in recent years, thanks to high growth rate of its economy and accompanying developments in social sectors. This was made possible primarily through the efforts of the state government which utilized its limited resources in a prudent manner," said Modi. ..... In agriculture sector, the production of cereals in 2011-12 was 172 lakh tonnes, compared to 104 lakh tonnes in previous fiscal. The production of rice increased to a new high of 8.2 million tonnes against 3.1 million tonnes in 2010-11. The use of 'Sri' technique was an important factor in the bumper rice production.

No NDA-Pappu Yadav alliance in Bihar: Min

The minister further said that the growth rate of Bihar had declined from

16%

to 8% ever since the BJP walked out of Nitish government two years back. "Jungle Raj is returned. Nitish is indulging in lies to mislead the Bihar people," he said adding that BJP had a number of able leaders from which a CM would be elected after the results of Bihar polls," he said.

Economy of Bihar

As of 2012, agriculture accounts for 22%, industry 5% and service 73% of the economy of the state ..... Bihar has the lowest GDP per capita in India but there are pockets of higher per capita income like the southern half of the state and its capital city, Patna, had per capita income greater than that of Bangalore or Hyderabad in 2008 .... $59.4 billion nominal GDP .... in June 2009, the World Bank reported that Patna was the second best city in India to start a business, after Delhi ...... in January 2010, the Indian government's Central Statistics Organisation reported that in the five-year period between 2004–2005 and 2008–09, Bihar's GDP grew by 11.03%, which made Bihar the second fastest growing economy in India during that 5 year period, just behind Gujarat's growth of 11.05%

World Bank lauds Bihar's high growth rate

Bihar clocked highest growth rate of 16.71 per cent during 2011-12

, as per Economic Survey presented in Parliament today. Bihar's growth rate was followed by Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra during the period ...... Kumar told the World Bank official that the state had earlier planned to link villages with a population of 500 and more with metallic road but now under Mukhyamantri Gram Sadak Yojna, village and localities with a population of 250 have been provided all weather metallic roads. ....... The CM said there are 8,400 panchayats in Bihar out of which in 250 places Panchayat building has been done with assistance from the World Bank.

At 11.44%, Bihar is India's fastest growing state

Among the 18 states and Union Territories of which data is available, Bihar recorded the highest State Gross Domestic Product (SGDP) in a year when the global financial meltdown pulled down country's economic growth rate to 6.7 per cent from 9 per cent...... Bihar even set a record of sorts during 2006-07 by clocking a 22 per cent SGDP, an indicator of the economic activity in the state. .... Commenting on the GDP numbers of Bihar's Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar Modi had said on Sunday that "Bihar is the new miracle economy of the country." ...... Modi had said in a statement that the state witnessed 5.15 per cent negative growth during 2003-04, under the rule of RJD, when Rabri Devi was the chief minister, adding this high growth had been achieved under the regime of Nitish Kumar who took over the reins on November 25, 2005, he said. ...... The achievement has proved beyond doubt that good governance could work miracles even for a most backward state like Bihar, he had added. ....... Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar said in Patna that sweeping economic reforms undertaken by his government and increased agricultural production have enabled the state to achieve a growth rate of 11.03 per cent during the period between 2004-05 and 2008-09 .......... "Improved law and order situation has attracted industrialists to invest in the state contributing to its economic growth," Kumar told reporters at his Janata Darbar. ....... Bihar was the fastest growing state with a cool 11.03 per cent GDP during the period between 2004-05 and 2008-09, a tad below Gujarat with 11.05 per cent. ...... Seeking Central help to further the development of the state, Kumar said if special category status is granted to the state, Bihar will do wonders as several entrepreneurs come to the state to avail of tax concession under this. ...... The Centre should immediately clear Rs 14,880-crore (Rs 148.80 billion) special package sought by the state for infrastructure development in the five districts ravaged by the Kosi deluge in 2008, the chief minister said. ...... Referring to the opposition's tirade for on the economic status of the state, Kumar said even Nobel laureate Amartya Sen showered praised his development works. ..... The Bihar chief minister said the Centre should compensate the money spent for the flood relief in 2007...... Accusing the Centre of creating hurdles in the state's endeavour for industrial development, Kumar said the Centre was sitting over for the past two years on the amended bill on the Bihar Sugarcane (Purchase and Supply) Regulation Act of 1981 to produce ethanol from sugar cane........He said the Bill was sent to the Centre in April 2007, but the state is yet to get response till date, blocking several investment proposals in the sugarcane sector........"I am hopeful that the Centre will react positively to state's demands and a petition with 1 crore (10 million) signatures will be submitted soon demanding special category status to Bihar," he said.

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China: A Complex Picture

• A black guy is in the White House occupying the most powerful political office on the planet and can still be at the receiving end of racism. What is the solution to that? The only way the African Americans are lo longer a sorry lot in America is if Africa does the China thing. Africa needs to become an economic powerhouse. Africa needs to attempt a political, economic union, or at least a free trade area. 
• China has lifted more people out of poverty than any power in history. I would want India and Africa to emulate that. 
• China grew at double digit growth rates for 30 years. That is mind blowing. I want to know how. I want to learn. 
• China has campaign finance reform. America needs campaign finance reform. 

• The only way China can now go back to double digit growth rates is if it engages in fundamental political reform. China still is only one fourth the size of America measured by per capita income. It needs to grow at double digit rates for another 20 years before it relaxes a bit. 
• The only way China can truly integrate Taiwan and Tibet is if it goes federal. 
• You can not dream up the industries of tomorrow if you do not celebrate free speech. It is only a matter of time before the Internet is beamed down from the skies, and then your virtual Great Wall will fall like a house of cards. 
• Don't exacerbate ethnic tensions in places like Sri Lanka and Burma, or India will come after you with everything it's got. 
• If the Dalai Lama wants to visit Tibet, he should be allowed to visit Tibet. Anyone or any power who thinks otherwise is wrong in the head. 

• China engaging in fundamental political reform paves the way for China becoming a true global power. 
• China could lead the way on things like boundless clean energy and global bullet trains. But only political reforms will give it an image makeover to make big moves possible. 
• True leaders are not bullies. 

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The Economist's Coverage Of Modi Anniversary: Poor

English: 1937 Deng Xiaoping in NRA uniform. 1937年，任八路军总部政治部副主任的邓小平。 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bill Clinton ended up giving America the longest peacetime economic expansion in history. Were people able to see that coming in year 1? In year 2? In year 3? No. Some things take time.

Frankly, part of The Economist's coverage is patronizing. Perhaps the London newspaper has a colonial hangover.

Look, I was not even rooting for Modi in the 2014 election, and you can check this blog's archives. Although I did not blame him for the 2002 riots (got to respect the Supreme Court) and I liked his work as Gujrat Chief Minister a lot. I came to him late. But I have come to him strong.

This guy is Deng Xiaoping. Manmohan Singh started economic reforms in India. But he did not have the political skills or stature that Modi has.

This guy's hero is Lee Kuan Yew, and for good reason.

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Modi: The Politician I Read Most About

Deng Xiaoping (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, being escorted by United States Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld through an honour cordon and into the Pentagon. They met to discuss bilateral security issues including the war on terrorism: see DefenseLINK news photos. US Department of Defense (). Retrieved on . (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Narendra Modi has become the politician I read most about these days. Deep inside it is my suspicion that he might be India's Lee Kuan Yew, that he might be India's Deng Xiaoping. I need Modi to give India double digit growth rates, year in, year out, no dips, no recessions. Double digit is not eight per cent, not nine per cent. Double digit is 10% or more.

Culturally speaking I am an Indian. I am an Indian who grew up in Nepal. And I want Modi to succeed. I like his laser focus on the economy. I like his no nonsense attitude of management. I like his decisiveness.

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