Showing posts with label Beijing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Beijing. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Hong Kong: Endgame Scenarios

Endgame 1: The Protestors Get Tired

One weekend they simply don't show up. Because they got tired. I don't see this happening. If anything, like a hurricane in the Bahamas, this thing seems to only gather further momentum.

Endgame 2: Beijing Sends In The Force

The PLA crosses the border and marches in. I don't see this happening. Beijing is smart enough to realize it will face major international sanctions. The tariffs that only the US has imposed, many major countries will impose. This act should be the least palatable to Beijing. This route chosen leads to a collapse of the communist party inside China because it starts a chain reaction.

Endgame 3: Inaction

Which is what is happening right now. Carrie Lam will not move the needle. Beijing will not move the needle. They basically hope for endgame 1, even though they do not so spell it out.

Endgame 4: The Protestors Get Better Organized, Locally As Well As Globally

Unless they want to also play the tire you out game, the protestors have no choice but to get better organized. Join this or that political party in the millions. Have elected leadership. Hold regular meetings. Pass resolutions after debate and discussion. Organize globally. Although the movement has been local to Hong Kong, it is only a matter of time before some questions will arise. Why are your demands good only for Hong Kong? What about the rest of China? In China, there might be fear. But what about the global Chinese diaspora? Why are you not winning the debate among the global Chinese diaspora? An interesting part of this development will be that the protest leaders will have to face the fact that they don't necessarily want a copycat political system to what America has. The political and economic system in the US is right now undergoing serious internal questioning. But unless the movement is capable of that debate and discussion, it is not a mature movement.

This last option seems to be the only available option.

Hurricane Hong Kong, will you hit Alabama?


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Carrie Lam Should Invite Protest Leaders For Talks

It is not realistic to think Xi Jinping will sit down for talks with the protest leaders. That might actually be a violation of one country, two systems. And I am not sure Beijing has instructed Carrie Lam to not talk to the protestors. I don't think she consulted Beijing before she decided on the mask ban, which was not a wise move.

Hong Kong Police is already doing the best it can. It is irresponsible of Carrie Lam to push it all onto a Hong Kong Police that used to be known as "Asia's Finest," but now has taken a beating in reputation. Hong Kong Police now has a major image problem.

The threats of "emergency powers," and "military crackdown" are empty and should not be issued, otherwise that will lead to a further erosion of her credibility and authority, worse than the one after the "mask ban."

The most important demand has already been met. Some of the demands can be negotiated. For example, three of the demands are about police conduct. A compromise position would be that the 2,000 plus who have been arrested are released, and although there is an investigation, it is more in the spirit of truth and reconciliation, not intended for punitive purposes. As to whether what has happened is "riot" or "protest," well for that you have free speech. You debate that part as much as you want.

The final demand is tricky. Carrie Lam could say, it is not in my power to accept or reject that demand. And so I can't discuss it. And that would be a fair thing to do. She truly does not have the power to accept the fifth demand.

The onus is on Carrie Lam as the Chief Executive of Hong Kong. She should simply invite the protest leaders for talks.




Hong Kong: Carrie Lam hints at further measures to suppress protests Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam has hinted at further measures to suppress the increasingly violent protests in the financial hub ahead of her annual policy speech, which will launch economic but not political measures in an attempt to douse widespread discontent....... the increasingly violent acts in recent weeks, which has seen activists hurling dozens of petrol bombs at police while others trashed metro stations as well as shops and banks seen as pro-Beijing. A home-made bomb was remotely detonated as a police car drove past on Sunday night and an officer also had his neck slashed by a protester. ........

Chinese president, Xi Jinping, warned during his trip to Nepal on Sunday that “anyone attempting to split China in any part of the country will end in crushed bodies and shattered bones”

....... the increasingly severe police beatings of protesters, media and bystanders in recent months have caused sweeping resentment. Ordinary people yell obscenities when riot police officers are seen on the streets........ Lam said her annual policy address, scheduled for Wednesday when the legislature resumes sessions, would launch economic measures to ease the land and housing situation. Mainland Chinese officials have repeatedly said unaffordable housing and employment issues are the “root cause” of Hong Kong’s social unrest, although political scientists say economic sweeteners alone will not solve the city’s political crisis........ She condemned the violent attacks on mainland Chinese businesses, shops seen as pro-Beijing, and pro-government politicians’ offices. “To say these were to fight for freedom and democracy could not be further from the truth,” she said. ....... she said her government remained committed to holding district council elections as scheduled on 24 November, despite the unstable social situation........ the Communist party mouthpiece Xinhua news agency said “Hong Kong has slipped into a dangerous abyss and a critical moment” and urged the business sector and civil servants to shun political neutrality, show their support for the police and refrain from “condoning the rioters” for ruining the city’s prosperity.

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam says she expects police to submit full report to coroner on death of 15-year-old girl, that has triggered violence and conspiracy theories The chief executive also said more than 10 police officers were injured, as the force came under attack from hard-core protesters over the weekend.

US senator Ted Cruz accuses Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam of cancelling meeting with him out of ‘weakness’ and ‘fear’ of anti-government protesters Ted Cruz said he had been looking forward to talks with chief executive but was told when he landed in the city that the meeting had been cancelled ....... Republican senator also said he had met ‘non-violent protest leaders’ and impressed upon them the need to shun violence .......

“Prior to the meeting being cancelled, Ms Lam’s office asked that I agree to keep everything said in the meeting secret and not inform the press of anything she had to say,” Cruz said.

......... Cruz’s anti-Beijing campaign has seen him introduce a bill to amend the US-Hong Kong Policy Act, which would require the State Department to certify the city’s autonomy if it is to continue enjoying special trade and economic benefits under the existing arrangement....... Cruz and other China hawks in the US Congress are also pushing for the bipartisan Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which would require Washington to assess whether the city should still be afforded its special status in light of political developments........ A couple of protesters were at Hong Kong’s airport to greet him upon arrival and thank him for his support for their cause – they had reportedly bought flight tickets so they would be allowed into the terminal building, which is off-limits to protesters after the chaos they caused during previous demonstrations at the arrival and departure halls. ....... “I recognise that some of the protests have turned violent. There is considerable concern that the protests are being infiltrated by agents of the Chinese government precisely to cause that violence, to turn the protests violent. I don’t know if that is happening or not; I can tell you the protest leaders with whom I spoke today believe it is happening,” he said. ......

“What I have encouraged the protest leaders with whom I have spoken is to embrace non-violent protest, to follow the tradition of Gandhi in India and Dr Martin Luther King in the United States

........ “That can be difficult to carry out, it can be particularly difficult in the face of violent oppression by government forces, of police beatings and shootings.” ....... “There is a reason the Communist Party in China wants the Hong Kong protests to turn violent because the Chinese Communist Party very much wants to characterise these protests as violent acts of terrorism rather than democracy protesters standing up for human rights,” he said. ..... “But my strong encouragement to the protesters here in Hong Kong is resist the urge to respond to brutality in like kind, but instead stand with dignity.”

‘Not feasible to relaunch a debate on universal suffrage now,’ Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam tells EU, according to internal report Chief executive said she expected a heavy defeat for pro-establishment camp in upcoming district council elections....... Lam reportedly said this year’s policy address will be focused on land and housing, and ‘reiterating confidence in one country, two systems’ ....... it was not feasible to relaunch a debate on universal suffrage now, as that would require constitutional steps by the National People’s Congress and society was too polarised ....... Lam reportedly stated there was nothing to be gained by opening a discussion on something that could not be delivered at present. Universal suffrage is one of five core demands of anti-government protesters......... The chief executive, who “seemed to be in an upbeat mood”, said she had every intention of ensuring the district council elections, scheduled for November 24, would proceed as planned. But she noted it was “up to protesters”......

she said “you can’t negotiate with the mob”

....... “She asserted that the unrest had now descended into ‘sheer and blatant violence’. It was no longer possible to envisage an end to violence being secured by meeting any of the four demands of protesters, given the activity of hard-core elements – who may have ‘organisations behind them’,” the report read........ Lam stood by the new anti-mask law, which took effect on October 5, arguing it had contributed to a decrease in protest numbers and in the use of petrol bombs. She added that at the moment there was no plan to enact further emergency powers.........Thousands of protesters have defied the ban and more than 70 people have been detained over the new law...... Lam did not share a possible time frame for future dialogues with the public, in spite of having confirmed that large-scale encounters were still planned, as smaller group meetings were continuing. While Lam emphasised her determination to “‘put Hong Kong back in business’”
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Sunday, October 13, 2019

Gangster Words Spoken By Xi Jinping: Shattered Bones

These words are gangster. I am surprised they are coming out of the mouth of a president in this day and age. Shattered bones?



I worry for Hong Kong. I do. No, I don't fear a military crackdown. But what is already happening is bad enough.

Let me explain the military crackdown part. This is not me saying what should happen. This is not me being an advocate. This is me talking like a political scientist, or analyst, or student of political science, or simply a blogger. Should Beijing go for military action in Hong Kong, that will start a chain reaction that will lead to a collapse of the communist party inside China. The tariffs that only the US has imposed all major countries will impose. That will give China its first recession in decades. There will be sudden mass unemployment and subsequent mass unrests. There is no police, no intelligence service, no surveillance camera, no facial recognition software, no tank, no gas canister that will save the regime beyond a certain point. And that is sad because it is unnecessary.

The Soviet collapse lead to a major contraction of the Russian economy. It led to the rise of the mafia. Living standards fell across the board. By population Russia is like a small province of China. The same level of instability will be too much if it happens inside of China. Too much for China, too much for the world.

I wish the protests were completely non-violent. But then I also wish the Hong Kong Police followed their own guidelines and did not engage in uniformed as well as ununiformed vigilantism.

But the onus is on Carrie Lam and Xi Jinping. They have the power to decide that they will simply sit down with the leaders of the movement and negotiate on their five demands. The five demands stay within the one country two systems paradigm. What seems to be the problem?

A Marxist is supposed to be a scientist who faces data. The data is out in the streets of Hong Kong. This is a golden opportunity for Xi Jinping to give China its third revolution of political reforms.





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Friday, October 04, 2019

Raising The Stakes On Non Political Solution In Hong Kong



Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam invokes emergency powers, announces face mask ban

Beijing and Carrie Lam are obviously nowhere near looking at the other four demands. They seem to think there is a police soltion to the whole situation. They want to tire out the protestors. They want to wait it out.

Your opponent will do what your opponent will do. But you have to chalk out your own strategy.

Leaderless is not a movement. Disorganized is not a movement. It bothers me that the Hong Kong protestors choose not to be politically organized.

The mask is a human reaction to the surveillance cameras. People don't want Big Brother to know where they are all the time. That invasion of privacy is so total. This is a global issue.
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Friday, September 27, 2019

New Beijing Airport

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A Criticism Of The Hong Kong Protestors

I attempt a criticism of the Hong Kong protestors because they are fighting for democracy, and it is a democratic act to criticize. I hope this is considered constructive criticism.

First of all, let me make it clear. Mahatma Gandhi said at one point, if it is a choice between protesting injustice violently and nonviolently, I'd prefer you protest nonviolently. But if it is a choice between protesting violently and not protesting at all, I'd prefer you protest. What are a few blocked roads or burnt railings between friends!

But having said that, I'd like to emphasize, if there are even only a few acts of vandalism, a few acts of property damage, a few acts of violence, that shows the movement lacks internal discipline of the highest degree. That internal discipline is what gives you moral authority.

It does not matter what the police do. The Hong Kong police have crossed the line a few times, true. The Hong Kong police protected vigilantes have crossed the line many times, true. But if you respond in kind, you lose some of your moral authority. The right political thing to do is to not react, to maintain internal discipline. And to create and maintain that internal discipline, you need internal political organization, internal dialogue.

"If we burn, you burn" is not a political program. I have been hearing more and more of that lately. That line of thought has to be consciously abandoned. Beijing is trying hard to tell the world, this is like the yellow vest protests in France or the forest fires in California. It will burn and die out on its own.

Unless the Hong Kong protest movement makes the extra effort towards that internal discipline and away from the "if we burn you burn" mantra, the movement might break all records in terms of how long it might last, but it might not see the success it seeks.

That is one thing I have to say about the method.

Another thing is dialogue. The Hong Kong protest movement needs to engage Carrie Lam and Beijing in an intense dialogue. Beijing has put out comment after comment on the protests in the global media. Those comments have gone unanswered. They need to be answered. Every such utterance needs to be answered.

You can not be fighting for democracy and say, Carrie Lam, we don't want to talk to you. Dialogue is basic to democracy.

Why do you want to talk to Carrie Lam?

The top of the five demands has already been met. The final demand, that of a directly elected Chief Executive, and a fully directly elected legislature is most important to me.

But there is room for compromise on some of the other demands. I agree that all protesters who have been detained should be released and their charges dropped. But when you ask for an independent inquiry of the police behavior, one has to ask, to what end? So the police officers might face disciplinary action? The room for compromise is to forgive and be forgiven.

A good outcome of a direct dialogue with Carrie Lam will also be to get her to say that it is simply not in her powers to meet the final demand. It is above her paygrade level. And that is true.

So, she has met one demand. I think she can meet another, that of releasing the 1,000 plus protestors that have been detained. But the protest movement has to be willing to compromise on two others. And the final demand has to be taken to Beijing. How do you do that?

There is a protest path. And there is a dialogue path.

If you only partially shut the city, you might have to do it a long time. But if you shut the city down 100%, the movement might win in a few short weeks. But the risk is those tanks in Shenzen might roll.

The dialogue path is, is Beijing even talking? It is not even at the table. Beijing big, Hong Kong tiny. That is the Beijing thinking. You already have Carrie Lam. That is what they say.

Creating a credible threat to independence might be the only way to get Beijing to budge. That is one thing Beijing does care about. On the other hand, if you can not build that credible threat, you perhaps should be willing to compromise.

Carrie Lam was basically appointed by Beijing. That makes an administrator. I hear a few years ago Beijing offered an arrangement whereby it would offer two candidates and Hong Kongers will get to pick one through direct vote. I wish that is how they elected the president of China every five years. The CCP offered two candidates to the billion-plus Chinese.

A compromise position between what Beijing was willing to give a few years ago and what Hong Kong wants today might be, okay, so Beijing gets to offer two candidates, but Hong Kong will also offer two candidates. There would at first be a primary. And the top two vote-getters will go into the final round. And the four candidates would contest.

Even that Beijing might not go for. But the beauty of being in constant dialogue mode is you force them to take positions. Dialogue is not just sitting across the table, or Xi Jinping giving one of you a call. Dialogue is already happening. Beijing has been issuing statement after statement. The movement has not been responding.

That is a political slam dunk for Beijing.

For example, when Joshua Wong showed up in Berlin, Beijing said, the west can not solve its own problems, how is it going to solve your problems? What did Joshua Wong say in response? Crickets.



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Monday, September 23, 2019

Hong Kong: The Power Lies In Non-Violence

Even when the Hong Kong Police might engage in police brutality, even when Beijing might see fit to encourage vigilantism, it makes sense for the Hong Kong protestors to stick to non-violence. Do not damage property. Do not engage in violence.

The movement is being called leaderless. But there is as much order and organization to the movement as there is in a crowdfunding campaign on Kickstarter. There is purpose. There is defiance. There is thought. There is discussion. There is mission. There is action.

Hong Kong leads. I don't see Hong Kong clamoring for what others have but they don't. I see Hong Kong leading. I see Hong Kong demanding for what other big cities don't have either. Hong Kong leads New York. Hong Kong leads DC. Maybe this is how Washington DC will gain statehood and due representation. Maybe this is how residents of New York City will gain voting rights. 40% of New Yorkers do not get to vote in the city elections.

Hong Kong leads the way.

Bu the method is important. Non-violence is the only good option. Not because the Hong Kong protestors are weak, but because that is how they keep their moral high ground.

The entire world is watching in real time.

The Hong Kong protests should become better organized politically. There is need for political conversations. Options have to be explored. If a near total shutdown of the city is not working, maybe a total shutdown has to be attempted. Because the current protests can not go on forever.

And the nuclear option is organizing for independence. I hope things don't go that far. But Beijing might not budge otherwise.

It is best that the five demands are met and one country, two systems is maintained. That is what is best for Hong Kong. That is what is best for the Chinese mainland, and the cause of democracy there.

But organizing for independence will take greater political sophistication. Millions of Hong Kongers will have to become active members of political parties. Leaders will have to emerge. Political strategies will have to be discussed.

Organizing protests does require conversations and strategies. But organizing for independence is a whole another level. Right now that political organization is lacking. Unless Beijing feels it might lose Hong Kong altogether, it might not budge. So that threat has to be created.

The world stands by Hong Kong. If Beijing attempts military action in Hong Kong, the world will shut down the Chinese economy. Chinese exports will come down dramatically. Beijing knows that to be the case. And so a credible threat for independence has to be created. That is the only way Beijing will come around to accepting the five demands. Hong Kong deserves nothing less.

The police have to be investigated. Only an independent commission could do that. The Chief Executive of Hong Kong has to be directly elected. It is going to be one of the leaders of the movement. All members of the Hong Kong Legislature need to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. A vast majority of them are going to be those who are currently part of the movement.

That is the way forward. The earlier Beijing makes peace with that, the better.

One country, two systems. Really.





Young Progressives Making Mistakes
Capitalism's Own Propaganda Machine
How Will Democracy Come To The Arab Countries?
Kashmir: Not Normal Yet
Trying To Understand Hong Kong And China
News: Hong Kong, Kashmir, Vigilantism, Curfew, Terrorism, Diaspora
Hong Kong, Non Violence Works
Globalization 4.0
News: Hong Kong, Vancouver, Diaspora Nationalism
News: Hong Kong, October 1, Protest Slang, Mental Conditioning
Xi Jinping Should Act
The Asymmetry Between Beijing And Hong Kong Is On Hong Kong's Side
Defiant Hong Kong
Microsft, Huawei, Trump, 5G
The Two Wangs
Hong Kong: Antennae Problem?
Hong Kong: No Police Solution, No Military Solution, Only A Political Solution
Hong Kong: Let The Dragon Grow Up
Navigating The Hong Kong Protests

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Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Hong Kong, Non Violence Works

The Hong Kong protests are in their fourth month. That is a long time. That is a testimony to how utterly unresponsive the authorities in Hong Kong and Beijing are to the ordinary people in Hong Kong. That just proves the point, that the entire Hong Kong legislature and the Hong Kong Chief Executive need to be directly elected by the people of Hong Kong.

One of the five demands has been met. If that demand had been met on day one, or during the first week, that would have been that. But now one is not enough. All five demands have to be met.

Time is on the side of the protestors. Beijing can not afford to drag this on indefinitely. But the protestors must be organized enough to be able to say we do not engage in violence, we do not engage in property damage. Not only does non-violence work, but that is also the only thing that will work.

The five demands are clear. The protestors do have the option to shut down the city completely. If a near-total shutdown is not working, perhaps a total shutdown will.

The protest movement can not degenerate into mob behavior. That will show a lack of political organization, lack of political strategy, lack of leadership.

Since no good police and military options are available, the authorities in Beijing and Hong Kong might be tempted to engage in vigilantism. They might organize and fund small groups of violence-prone people to do their dirty work for them. An incident here, an incident there. They already have done that a few times. That is no solution. The authorities must recognize there is no physical solution to this. There is only a political solution. The political dialogue must be initiated. Small groups of people not wearing uniform doing the dirty work for them is not the way out. That will only bring confusion and chaos.

Both sides must refrain from violence.

In making conscious efforts to not engage in violence, you take the movement to new heights.

Hong Kong protests: man seriously hurt after attack by anti-government demonstrators as street fights between rival groups erupt People trade blows and verbal abuse, with outbreaks of violence occurring mainly in the North Point and Fortress Hill area...... Ugliest incident involved unarmed man being attacked by a mob of black-clad masked protesters .........















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Saturday, September 14, 2019

Hong Kong: Antennae Problem?



Hong Kong’s extradition law mess: don’t blame Beijing, blame naive Carrie Lam In underestimating the pushback from Hongkongers from all walks of life, the chief executive has shown a lack of political antennae ..... She could have avoided much of this quagmire had her government not bypassed proper procedures and, instead, consulted the public ...... Blaming “foreign forces” for causing havoc in Hong Kong has always been the official mainland media’s default position but the Hong Kong government’s current crisis is largely of its own making. ....... no matter how the crisis ends, no one is a winner and Hong Kong as a whole loses – its reputation, the independence of its judiciary and the confidence of the international community in its status as a leading financial centre. ....... There has been intense speculation in Hong Kong and elsewhere that Lam pushed for the law at the request of Beijing. She herself strongly denied this and said she had not received any instruction from Beijing and the bill was not initiated by the central government. ....... This is probably true. .......... would also make it much easier for the central government to hunt down and extradite businessmen and corrupt officials who often hole up in Hong Kong after they fall foul of the mainland authorities......... the extraordinary pushback from Hong Kong people from all walks of life, particularly from the usually docile but powerful business community in the city, over their

deeply held fears and concerns about the lack of rule of law on the mainland.

..... Trained as a career civil servant, Lam, along with senior officials in her cabinet, seems to lack political sophistication and acute political antennae. ....... In the name of urgency, the government bypassed the proper procedures and process and failed to allow public consultation over the proposed law. In contrast, some cynics pointed out that in April, the government launched a three-month consultation on how to better protect animals and ensure owners will have their dogs and cats fed, cared for and given adequate medical attention....... With Taiwan’s presidential election cycle already heating up, both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and a potential opposition candidate – the electronics tycoon Terry Gou – have both used Hong Kong’s mass protests as proof that the mainland’s “one country, two systems” formula has failed. ....... Beijing has expressed full support for Lam’s efforts and so long as the pro-government legislators, who command a majority in the local legislature, stay united, the bill has a high chance of passing.



Xi Jinping’s speech shows China’s Communist Party is still haunted by the fall of the Soviet Union Xi’s warning of the long struggle ahead between socialism and capitalism is being circulated as the People’s Republic reaches its 70th anniversary – a mark the USSR never reached ....... Chinese leaders’ speeches to their inner circles, particularly those on sensitive issues, are always guarded with the utmost secrecy. ....... Citing Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Xi said socialism would triumph over capitalism but cited Deng Xiaoping as saying that it would be a long historical process, which would probably take

several dozens of generations

...... He warned that the collapse of the Soviet Union served as a painful lesson for the party. ..... he floated a new narrative to bolster the legitimacy of the party by arguing that one could not use the period following reform and opening up to negate the period before it, nor vice versa. ....... he recognised that Western developed countries would maintain long-term economic, technological, and military advantages and China must be fully prepared for the two systems – socialism in its primary stage and a more advanced capitalism – to cooperate and struggle for a long time to come. ........ As China must learn and borrow from capitalism, it must face the reality that people would compare the strong points of Western developed countries with the shortcomings of China’s socialist development and be critical, Xi said...... Xi’s speech was previously circulated only among party officials with county level ranking and above....... its leaders are still smarting from the collapse of the then 69-year-old Soviet Union in 1991.



China’s media companies are failing at home, failing abroad and failing Xi Jinping China is spending billions in an effort to tell its stories to the world ........ The explosion, which occurred shortly before 3pm on March 21, initially killed 62 people and injured 640 others, but failed to make it to the front page of the People’s Daily the very next day – or any other page for that matter, the last time I checked. The death toll now stands at 78 and is expected to rise. ...... At a time when the official media is at full throttle in worshipping Xi, any news about the president takes pride of place on the front page while any other item, no matter how newsworthy, must give way......... on March 22, Xi, in an answer to a question from Roberto Fico, president of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, about his feelings as the Chinese president, said that he would be selfless and determined to devote himself to serving the Chinese people. .......

the inherent nature of China’s propaganda machine determines that its primary target audience is the Chinese leaders and officials at various levels of the government

– not least because they control the budgets and careers of Chinese state media workers. So long as officials are happy with the coverage, the job is done........ Chinese propaganda officials, who are not accountable to their own media, have little idea of how to engage overseas journalists and respond tactfully to their criticisms. Previously, when their campaign to shape China’s image was largely defensive, they simply ignored criticisms or seethed with anger behind closed doors. ....... Now as the Chinese leadership makes no bones about its ambitions for world leadership, propaganda officials are more forthright about criticism in the overseas media but in a much less tactful way ....... either out of ignorance or arrogance, they thought they knew what the foreign audience wanted to hear and read about China, but in fact they did not. So their products are often found wanting, reeking of nothing but propaganda...... in the parlance of cynical journalists at the state media, they often liken their filing of stories to “sending things into the sky” – showing they have done their job.



Chinese must live with a dead Baidu, as Google’s return looks doomed

China’s sophisticated internet censorship regime has blocked numerous overseas websites, including the South China Morning Post

, and search engines and social media platforms including Google, Twitter and YouTube........ there is a widespread perception that the Great Firewall could be one of the few red lines on which China is unlikely to budge....... China’s digital barriers are facing increasing pressure from within as Chinese businesses, academics, and intellectuals have been increasingly vocal about the negative impact of the Great Firewall on the country’s economy, academic research, technological innovation, and its competitiveness in attracting overseas companies and talents.......

Baidu, long a source of bitter complaints and frustration among Chinese internet users for its poor quality search results

and questionable advertising practices, was the target of renewed public anger in January......... Google’s exit from China in 2010, triggered by China’s increasing online censorship, has further cemented Baidu’s lead. Before its exit, Google commanded about 30 per cent of China’s market share, trailing Baidu but providing healthy competition and a far better alternative for Chinese internet users seeking high quality search results........

as Baidu’s quality of service has declined rapidly over the past few years, the public clamour for Google’s return has become louder.

....... China’s academics and businessmen alike have argued the country’s severe restrictions on cross-border data flows – including slow cross-border internet speed and the inability to access global online tools like Google – have damaged China’s competitiveness and innovation. ..... Back in March 2017,

Luo Fuhe

, a prominent academic and a vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the country’s top consultative body, caused quite a stir by publicly releasing a proposal urging the Chinese government to ease internet restrictions to enable faster access to overseas news and academic websites and search engines.........

Anyone who has tried to search for English-language information on Baidu should know how lousy its service is.

........ AmCham China, which represents American businesses in the country, said more than 90 per cent of respondents felt slow cross-border internet speeds and the blocking of online resources harmed their competitiveness as well as their operations. ........ the US media suggesting that Google was planning a return to China and had been working on a censored version of its search engine, code-named Dragonfly..... even a filtered version of Google would be much better than Baidu.

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Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Hong Kong Problem: Unholy Alliance Of Capitalists And Communists



I don't know the details. So forgive if I get something wrong. I will stand corrected. But it is my understanding that something like half the Hong Kong legislature is not directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. These are business people, rich people, tycoons, industrialists, billionaires, real estate moguls, who enter the legislature through some kind of a back door that they negotiated in 1997 when Britain left. And these unelected people are the most reliable supporters of Beijing in Hong Kong. Go figure. It is like, there is a patch of no man's land somewhere in Latin America where Islamist terrorists and white nationalist terrorists both go to get trained.

And Carrie Lam is obviously not elected by the people of Hong Kong or she would have accepted the demands on day one. She is appointed by Beijing. That is ridiculous. That is not my idea of one country, two systems.

All members of the Hong Kong legislature need to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. The Chief Executive of Hong Kong needs to be directly elected by Hong Kong citizens. That would be an affirmation of one country, two systems.

2047 is a deadline. That is when all of China becomes like Hong Kong. Hong Kong does not become like China.


Carrie Lam, What Took You So Long?
Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam
Hong Kong Chief Executive Can't Choose To Quit
Steve Bannon, Hong Kong, 1989, And The CCP
Hong Kong Protests: The World Should Not Watch A Possible Massacre
Why Hong Kong Needs A Directly Elected Chief Executive
The Hong Kong Protest Lacks Political Sophistication
Hong Kong: The Shenzen Angle
Could Andrew Yang Become President?

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Tuesday, September 03, 2019

Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam

I am trying to understand what might be going on.

Xi Jinping is the only one who can decide. But he is acting above the fray. And the way the system is designed, people who report to him are trying their best to make him look like the tough guy he is supposed to be.

That works if all you have to do is wait. In a few weeks, the whole thing will fizzle out.

Well, it has been more than a few months, and the whole thing is only gathering more momentum.

The political system in China is not designed to respond to what has been happening in Hong Kong. What has been happening is under the full glare of global media, old and social. The whole thing is being webcast live. The Chinese communists don't know how to respond.

Hong Kong is a bigger threat than Donald Trump and the trade war. It is like Beijing is having to fight two wars at once, neither of which is military. A military war would be relatively easy. This is a phantom war.

The system is inflexible. Formally withdraw the extradition bill and the whole thing might go away. But they can't even do that. The system is that inflexible. It will break, but it will not bend. The folks in Beijing are naive in thinking the breaking point is far. Objects in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear.

How might this whole thing play out?

One fine morning the protesters wake up and realize they don't want to do this anymore. This is what Beijing is counting on. This is the least likely scenario.

The other extreme is Beijing sends in troops. This would be the stupidest move on their part. That will end communist rule inside China, guaranteed. The CCP will not celebrate a new year.

The moderate scenario is where Beijing starts by accepting the key demand. Or it even accepts all five demands and claims it a victory for one country, two systems. But this makes too much sense. If they were to do this, they would have done it already. The political system in China runs like a rhinoceros. It does not know zigzag.

I feel like Beijing might have already entered a no-win phase in this situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Although I can't be too sure. And I have not been reading enough on the details.

We will know when the dam starts to break. It might be in the form of one arrest too many, one beating too many by the Hong Kong police. Or support protests in the other cities of the world. Or the protesters managing a complete shutdown of everything in Hong Kong, the airport, the stock exchange, everything.

While Beijing moves towards October 1 like an ostrich.



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