Meanwhile In Syria

Bashar Al Assad has been bombing Syria like it were Vietnam. And he called other leaders in the region "half men" for not following in his footsteps. This dude is brutal.

Syria is a complex situation, for sure.

Assad's point was, if you get rid of me, you don't get Switzerland, you get, well, Libya, you get ISIS. The dude has internalized Islamophobia better than many white racists. Muslims just don't know how to govern themselves. That is the suggestion. I don't buy that one minute. Muslims are human beings.

Libya was a complex situation too. It is not like one day Barack Obama woke up and decided he wants Gaddafi out. Libya started seeing mass protests. And Gaddafi was on the verge of committing genocide. He was pretty vocal in his intended response. To do nothing would have been gravely wrong. But to go in also has not been picture perfect. Libya has fractured in the aftermath. After Gaddafi was out, the West disengaged. That was a mistake. The hard political work was not even attempted. Talking is much harder than shooting.

How do you engineer peace? Do you convince a people to not get out into the streets? That is clearly not an option. Do you convince a dictator to not retaliate? That is not an option either. What do you do? Do you sit idly by? That is not an option.

It is a dynamic, fluid situation.

The path to peace is to get all stakeholders, internal as well as external, around a table. That also is not an easy option. Warring parties often use peace talks as opportunities to change facts on the ground.

I hope and pray for peace in both Yemen and Syria. The path to peace is a political path. You get all stakeholders talking. Some headway is being made in Yemen. That same headway is not being made in Syria. Because Assad's stance is my way or highway. That leaves little room for talks.

Syria is a complex situation with many layers. The top layer, of course, is the US-Russia tension. Syria allows Russia to prove a point, that maybe it never lost the Cold War. Then there is the regional cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Then there is the central Assad factor. The dude is second generation. His father was president for decades. Then he took over. He is masterfully exploiting the two cold wars. There is the opposition. And there is ISIS. They are all angling for control. Assad is winning. His victory is near complete. But then very recently he opened a new front. A part of Syria became Vietnam all over again.

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A baby is cradled through swirls of desert dust after violence forced families to flee Deir-ez-Zor, eastern Syria in January 2019. This year, children living in countries at war have been killed, maimed, raped, recruited to fight, and used as human shields. In the first half of 2019, the UN confirmed 10,000 grave violations against children, making it the bloodiest six months since records began. For every act of violence against children that creates headlines and cries of outrage, there are many more that go unreported. This cannot be the new normal. Attacks on children must stop. #NotATarget #ChildrenUnderAttack © UNICEF/UN0277722/Souleiman

A post shared by UNICEF (@unicef) on Dec 30, 2019 at 8:45am PST

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Are the US and Iran heading for a confrontation on Iraqi soil? As Washington and Tehran are locked in various political and military confrontations in the region, especially in the Gulf and Yemen, Friday's attack, allegedly by Kataib Hezbollah, could be viewed as an Iranian attempt to respond to mounting political and economic pressure brought by the US ...... Iran, however, claims mass protests were instigated and supported by the US in order to undermine its presence and interests in Iraq.......Iraqi security forces stand accused of killing about 500 people since the start of the movement months ago.
The World's Worst Game Of Risk Is Playing Out In Syria

Assad Is Now Syria’s Best-Case Scenario The ruthless Syrian dictator is guilty of countless war crimes—and regrettably represents his country’s least bad remaining option. .... U.S. policy toward Syria has been a failure for years, and the American strategy—if that word is even appropriate—was rife with contradictions and unlikely to produce a significantly better outcome no matter how long the United States stayed ...... As depressing as it is to write this sentence, the best course of action today is for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to regain control over northern Syria.

Assad is a war criminal whose forces killed more than half a million of his compatriots and produced several million refugees.

In a perfect world, he would be on trial at The Hague instead of ruling in Damascus. But we do not live in a perfect world, and the question we face today is how to make the best of a horrible situation.

Concern over rise in dark tourism in Syria as war enters ninth year a handful of tour companies and travel bloggers catering to English-language customers have started running bespoke trips to the country to “mingle with locals while also passing destroyed villages”, visit archeological sites “shrouded in a coat of destruction” and “experience the famous cosmopolitan nightlife that has returned to the centre of Damascus”.......

At least 500,000 people have been killed in the war and more than half Syria’s pre-war population of 22 million people have fled their homes.

...... hardcore adventure tourist interest in a country that has been off limits for nearly a decade is growing ..... Visiting places associated with death and tragedy is generally referred to as dark tourism. Holidaying in countries still technically at war, however, is a relatively new phenomenon, fuelled by social media influencers on a quest to conquer forbidden destinations or tick off all 195 countries in the world. ..... At least one offering, from the China-based Young Pioneer Tours, ventures as far north as Aleppo, which was wrested back from the Syrian opposition in 2016 after a four-year battle. More than half the city is still in ruins. ..... Bakri al-Obeid ran a small tourism company in Damascus before Syria’s uprising began in 2011. He left his hometown of Aleppo when the city fell three years ago and now lives in Idlib, which is pounded daily by Syrian and Russian airstrikes. ....... “What the tourism companies are doing now has just one goal: normalisation with the regime. They are doing this to show the world that Syria is safe and fine and the war is over,” he said......“[These trips] whitewash the regime and let the world forget the atrocities committed against Syrians. It’s really depressing and painful to see tourists coming to your country from overseas when your house is confiscated by the regime and you can never go back home.”

Syria's Assad says Kurdish controlled northeast Syria must return to state authority What Trump Actually Gets Right About Syria His incompetent and hasty withdrawal is shameful and harms American interests. But it lays bare some uncomfortable truths.....

U.S. policy in Syria has been unclear, confused and unrealistic for nearly a decade—a never-ending mission impossible without realistic goals or the means to achieve them.

..... Not since Barack Obama’s red line on the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons turned pink, have we seen as severe a reaction to a foreign policy move. ...... The territory the SDF controlled was roughly the size of West Virginia and it is sandwiched between a deeply suspicious Turkey and an Assad regime equally resolved to bring all of Syria under its control. ....... Russian President Vladimir Putin did what the Obama and Trump administrations would not—intervene in the Syrian civil war. Instead of fighting that war by proxy, Putin and his generals stepped in with air power, boots on the ground, and unexpected skill, determination—and yes, unspeakable brutality—and changed the course of the civil war. Putin saved Assad and by doing so reemerged as a major power broker in the Middle East. Putin won the Syrian civil war, and he deserves its spoils....... And what spoils they are—a war-torn society, a ruined economy, bombed-out cities, and millions of refugees..... the idea that Putin’s Syria gambit will allow him to take over the Middle East is just silly. Frankly, he can’t do much worse than three U.S. presidents have done since the Iraq invasion ......

It has been apparent for some time, except for those in denial, that Assad isn’t going anywhere—Russia and Iran have assured that.

...... Whether Assad will be able to establish control over the entire country is not the point: He controls the capital, Syria’s major cities, airports and seaports....... He’s likely to remain something of an international pariah with few willing to fund the billions required to reconstruct the country. ...... the ability of ISIS and its affiliates to wreak further havoc in Syria and Iraq and carry out terror attacks in the region and in Europe is unquestionable ....... Since 9/11, America has spent $2.8 trillion on homeland security. If at this point America is a sitting duck for ISIS, a ton of taxpayer money has been wasted. ...... the U.N., U.S., the EU and Arab states with deep pockets should substantially increase funding to meet humanitarian needs in Syria...... Neither Congress nor the American public has the appetite to commit American blood and treasure in Syria. Iran, Turkey, Russia and the Assad regime are prepared to make these sacrifices and Syria is a much higher priority for them than it is for the United States............

Trump has made the Syrian story much more tragic by deciding, in the most inept way possible, to cut and run.

..... Israel has managed to constrain Iran’s more expansionist designs in Syria, and Russian and Iranian goals do not always coincide......

Syria is a complicated place that offers no one an unqualified win. Instead, it is a land where the majority of Syrians pay a terrible price at the hands of external powers and a minority brutal government determined to survive at any price.

It will remain a money pit where plans for peace, good governance and stability go to die.

Meanwhile In #Syria https://t.co/ll3Z65R9cT #Syrians #russia #Iran #iraq #UnitedStates #DonaldTrump #Assad #CivilWar #WarCrimes #middleeast #Peace #War #isis #Kurds #Turkey #Erdogan

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) December 31, 2019

America Does Not Want Another Vietnam

Português do Brasil: O presidente Lula recebe o presidente da República Árabe Síria, Bashar al-Assad, no Itamaraty. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If the War On Terror is like the Cold War, which I have maintained it is since 9/11, will this war also see a Vietnam? ISIS sure wants one. Their central mission is to get enemy troops on the ground. But giving in would be a mistake. And that is where I find myself agreeing with President Obama. Troops on the ground are always a tricky operation, even when fighting a traditional state.

But there is no wishing ISIS away. And it is not a force that can be contained. They have to engage in far flung acts of terror to stay alive as an organization. They can not stay in their territory. If they did, they would die out.

Vietnam was an open-ended ground operation that ended very very badly and lasted way too long. Luckily, there are better options available. But the goal does have to be to deny ISIS territory. Working with Russia for an Assad-less Syrian transition might be one way. Smart, sustained aerial strikes might be another.

But this is a global fight. Better intelligence sharing among the democracies of the world would go a long way.

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The Paris Attack Builds Political Pressure For A Direct Attack On ISIS

There was no way America could not have attacked Afghanistan after 9/11. An attack like 9/11 builds so much pressure. The Paris attacks are not 9/11 size, but they are still big, and such a frontal assault on the French capital city.

I believe Arabs have genuine grievances, foremost among them being that most of them are ruled by dictators. But ISIS is dictatorship and primitiveness all in one. The ISIS is no solution to Arab grievances.

This was not just an attack on Paris. These attacks have been targeted at the gathering that will be the Paris climate talks.

World leaders will now find it hard not to build a coalition to go after ISIS. A direct, sustained aerial assault on ISIS territory perhaps is now imminent.

The Al Qaeda has never had its own country. Afghanistan under Taliban rule was a host country. It was a parasite situation. Al Qaeda was mobile. ISIS has a territory it directly rules. It generates massive revenue. It is not a country though. It is not seeking a seat at the UN. It is a deformity passing for a state.

ISIS is atrocious to the population it rules. And that should have been reason enough to go after it. Previously I have called ISIS Rwanda in the making. If they can't keep expanding, they will turn upon themselves, like a cult.

Driving ISIS out of its territory would liberate people.

I don't believe in violence, but ISIS is so evil, there seems to be no other choice. Society permits lawful police action against evil members. Humanity has an obligation to use force against ISIS and take war to its territory.

Boots on the ground is always a tricky proposition. But aerial assaults can be decisive, and might pave the way for boots on the ground. To clean up, and to set up a proper, democratic, modern state.

Use of force is sometimes necessary, and the only way to combat evil.

If Assad has to go, Assad has to go. It could be a package deal. Syria deserves democracy as much as anyone else.

But the military assault can not be open ended. It has to be precise and time bound. You don't "liberate" and then clean up ground just for chaos. There has to be a clear plan involving local populations. Syria left to fester gives you ISIS. ISIS left to fester gives you Paris.

Russia's Ego Is Geopolitical

English: President Bashar al-Assad of Syria . Original background. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Russia is such a huge country geographically, never mind it has fewer people than Pakistan, never mind its economy is smaller than India's, but the largest country in the world, geographically speaking, feels the need to prove it is a military superpower on par with the United States. China, on the other hand, has no qualms that its global prestige can not exceed its economic might, and so stays economy focused. A large population can make you do that. Grow or get challenged, from inside. There is also a hunger among ordinary Russians for someone like Putin, someone who will make them feel like the superpower they were.

Geopolitics is very real. All large countries have spheres of influence, just like Jupiter's gravity is felt on its moons. Russia's geopolitical pull will still hold to be true should some day Russia become a democracy in the western sense of the word.

Russia is a big country: deal with it.

Russian Military Uses Syria as Proving Ground, and West Takes Notice

a public demonstration of new weaponry, tactics and strategy. ..... The strikes have involved aircraft never before tested in combat ..... a ship-based cruise missile fired more than 900 miles from the Caspian Sea, which, according to some analysts, surpasses the American equivalent in technological capability. ...... might soon back an Iranian-led offensive that appeared to be forming in the northern province of Aleppo ......

months of meticulous planning behind Russia’s first military campaign outside former Soviet borders since the dissolution of the Soviet Union

..... a little-noticed — and still incomplete — modernization that has been underway in Russia for several years, despite strains on the country’s budget......

Putin had overseen the most rapid transformation of the country’s armed forces since the 1930s.

..... Russia’s fighter jets are, for now at least, conducting nearly as many strikes in a typical day against rebel troops opposing the government of President Bashar al-Assad as the American-led coalition targeting the Islamic State has been carrying out each month this year....... an increasingly confrontational and defiant Russia under Mr. Putin ...... the operation could be intended to send a message to the United States and the West about the restoration of the country’s military prowess and global reach after decades of post-Soviet decay. ....... we are going to school on what the Russian military is capable of today.” ....... Russian military spending .. has surged to its highest level in a quarter-century, reaching $81 billion, or 4.2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product ...... Moscow’s largest deployment to the Middle East since the Soviet Union deployed in Egypt in the 1970s. ....... their ability to move a lot of stuff real far, real fast ...... Russia is not only bringing some of its most advanced hardware to the fight, it has also deployed large field kitchens and even dancers and singers to entertain the troops — all signs that Moscow is settling in for the long haul ...... American officials say Russia has closely coordinated with its allies to plan its current fight. .......... the Russians are already harvesting lessons from the campaign to apply to their other military operations .....

“Russia is using their incursion into Syria as an operational proving ground.”

Putin Says U.S. Fails to Cooperate in Syria

suggesting that they had “mush for brains.” ..... widespread accusations in the West that Russian warplanes were targeting practically every group opposed to the Syrian government except the Islamic State ...... “Recently, we have offered the Americans: ‘Give us objects that we shouldn’t target.’ Again, no answer,” he said. “It seems to me that some of our partners have mush for brains.” ...... Aside from propping up Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, Russia’s staunchest regional ally, the Russian government is believed to be motivated by the idea of ending its international isolation stemming from the Ukraine crisis. It also wants to be treated as an equal partner by the West in addressing the intractable problems facing Syria, which include the spread of the Islamic State extremist group and the need to shape a political transition to end the civil war that has killed at least 250,000 people and displaced millions. ........ For more than four years, the government has held central Damascus while shelling the poorer towns ringing the city, where many residents were among the first to rebel against Mr. Assad. ....... a call by Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, the Nusra Front, for revenge attacks against Russia. ...... urged jihadists from the Caucasus to kill one Russian for every Syrian who had died. ...... He said the horrors to be visited on the Russians would overwhelm the memories of what happened to them in Afghanistan in the 1980s. ..... Jambulat Umarov, the foreign and information minister for Chechnya, also in the Caucasus, called the group “obsolete” and bragged that his region of Russia was the only place in the world that had gained the upper hand against Islamic militants....... Both Russia and the United States have said that the Islamic State is the target of their attacks in Syria. Russia also maintains that removing Mr. Assad now will bring chaos, a position that the West and regional states reject.

U.S. Weaponry Is Turning Syria Into Proxy War With Russia

Insurgent commanders say that since Russia began air attacks in support of the Syrian government, they are receiving for the first time bountiful supplies of powerful American-made antitank missiles. ...... the Syrian conflict is edging closer to an all-out proxy war between the United States and Russia. ..... The increased levels of support have raised morale on both sides of the conflict, broadening war aims and hardening political positions, making a diplomatic settlement all the more unlikely. ..... Spirits are rising on the government side as well. Weapons and morale are “at a new level,” said an official with the newly revived alliance of Russia, Iran and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah that is fighting on the behalf of Damascus. ..... the alliance is seeking something closer to victory. The aim now is to retake Syrian land that had been given up for lost, take the ouster of Mr. Assad off the table for good and reach a far more advantageous political solution after establishing “new facts on the ground.” ...... One official with a rebel group that is fighting in Hama called the supply “carte blanche.” “We can get as much as we need and whenever we need them,” he said ...... “By bombing us, Russia is bombing the 13 ‘Friends of Syria’ countries,” he said, referring to the group of the United States and its allies that called for the ouster of Mr. Assad after his crackdown on political protests in 2011. ..... Russian attack helicopters swoop low over fields, seemingly close enough to touch, then veer upward to unleash barrages of rockets, flares and heavy machine-gun fire. Explosions pepper distant villages, with smoke rising over clusters of houses as narrators declare progress against

“terrorists.”

....... Both Russia and the United States have declared they are fighting the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, but the two global powers support opposite sides in the battle between Mr. Assad and the Syrians who rebelled against his rule.

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The Russia Idea On Syria Has To Be Carried Out Through The UN

English: Flag of Syria, from 1932-58 and 1961-63. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If war can be avoided, that is a good thing, but the proposal that has been making the rounds has to take the form of a UN Security Council resolution. What Syria will do has to be clear. What punishment will be meted out should Syria backtrack should also be clear in the resolution.

Some good will come out of the exercise. One, war will be avoided. Two, the UN will gain currency. Three, this will hopefully lead to a ceasefire in Syria and a political solution to the grave crisis in that country.

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Kerry's Proposal Is A Good One

English: SOCHI. With President of Syria Bashar al-Assad. Русский: СОЧИ, БОЧАРОВ РУЧЕЙ. С Президентом Сирии Башаром Асадом. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If Syria hands over all its chemical weapons, that can be a nice way out of the current quagmire. Wars are always ugly. There is no such thing called a surgical war. But pressure has to be maintained, and preparations have to be made.

Other than the weapon, a few good things about the move would be that one, maybe Assad will agree to a ceasefire and a political solution, and two, it is a good thing that Russia and the US are cooperating.

The tech community feels differently about Snowden than does DC. The nation state is in a clash with the Internet. The Internet has a libertarian bent to it. So the Russia-Snowden affair is not all that black and white.

If Assad will agree to hand over his chemical weapons, maybe Assad will also agree to a political solution that will start with an all round ceasefire to bring the mindless killings to an end. But then the roadmap has to lead to elections to a constituent assembly, to start with a caretaker interim government. Or am I asking too much?

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Syria: The Most Important Move Is Still Political

Barack Obama can strike if he wants to, and he does want to strike. He could rain 100 million dollars worth of missiles, or he could rain two billion dollars worth of missiles. He has leeway to decide. There will be no American troops on the ground. None are needed.

But the biggest challenge is not all that. That part is done. The biggest challenge is political and it has to do with the Syrian opposition.

The Obama administration has to make a clear case to the Syrian opposition in exile. They have to get their act together. That means cobbling together a united opposition. That means agreeing to an interim president in waiting. Who is that candidate? That means agreeing to elections to a constituent assembly within a year of Assad getting toppled. That means only inviting those groups into the coalition that will agree to lay down their arms once Assad is out.

The transition will have to be smooth. The post-Assad regime ironically will have to secure all the chemical weapons as the first order of business, that and any other weapons of mass destruction.

Unless the Syrian opposition is willing to all this political homework, the Obama administration should attempt only a limited strike, enough to punish Assad but not enough to hand over Syria to the Al Qaeda. The Obama administration has to do all it can - and there is much it can do - to push the Syrian opposition to do all the necessary political homework. Why strike if you are not going to get rid of Assad? We are not attempting a fireworks display.

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