Tuesday, October 04, 2022

Possibility For Peace

If Russia were to withdraw all its forces from Ukrainian territories - and yes, that includes Crimea - then peace moves can be made. But is there anyone on earth who is capable of homing in that point to Putin? The four recently "annexed" regions and Crimea could be demilitarized and referendums held in each territory under international supervision. This is Scotland style democracy, and if Ukraine is a democracy it should not be afraid of this proppsal.

The missing piece is that noone seems to be attempting this. Xi Jinping, Modi, Erdogan, Macron, Olaf should all be pushing for this. If you push this proposal hard, and Putin does not accept, then he still loses politically.

The talk of nuclear armageddon is adults on both sides having turned this into a video game. The political conversation is missing. War hardware is ruling the day on both sides. If you do this, I will do that. If I do that, I think you might do this.

There is no such thing called a limited nuclear strike. Right now there is time to think, ponder, discuss, elaborate, communicate. The very first nuclear strike puts the world on a one way escalator.

There is a slim chance that as Putin escalates his rhetoric, some on his side might depose him. But that talk is no strategy. It is more like fantasy. A legitimate strategy is one where all possible global players actively weigh in on the situation.

If all Russian forces were to withdraw and get out of Ukrainian territory, that would deal a body blow to the Putin regime inside Russia. A Saddam regime necessarily needs to enter Kuwait to maintain internal cohesion.

Using every possible channel, private and public, to make the offer of globally supervised referendums should the Russian forces withdraw will not require a cessation of Ukrainian military efforts. If Putin does not accept, that will legitimize Ukrainian military efforts. But the effort for peace has to be ceaselessly made. Right now there is time. After the first nuclear strike, which would be a suicidal move for Putin, there will be much less time. But a suicidal maniac could do much damage before dying. Hoping for a breakdown in the Russian chain of command and orders for nuclear strike being disobeyed is not a sound strategy.

For all the decades that the planet has had nucler weapons, this is as close to an all out nuclear war as the world has ever been. Compared to this threat, a rise in food and oil prices or even a cold winter are small potatoes. For much of its existence, Europe has not had heating oil and gas. Nuclear radiation is another matter.

Xi Jinping, Modi, Erdogan, Macron, Olaf, Merkel, Blair, Clinton, Obama should not wait for inviations from either side. They should all actively engage both sides.

Europe is not neutral. China is not. Turkey is too small a country. The Russian-Indian friendship has a long history. Bollywood is big in Russia. Putin and Modi have a genuine rapport. Modi is best positioned to take the lead. If you want veto power, make peace happen. Earn it. Actively wage peace. You have to have a concrete proposal before you talk to either party.

Deescalation is an acute need of the hour.

It is possible minority Russians living inside Ukraine face discrimination, but that political problem has only a peaceful political solution. Minorities inside Russia face the same problem. Nuclear war is no solution.

Even if the referendum results might go in Ukraine's favor, Kyiv should at the outset guarantee political safety nets to protect the rights of Russian minorities.

If hate had a nuclear button solution, then hate would be as easy to solve as the energy crisis. But that is not so. You don't add super hate to hate. Don't try to douse a campfire with a forest fire. Tone it down.

The peace proposal would involve Putin paying for a rebuilding of the damage done. And an impartial look into war crimes allegations.



India's Modi says ready to contribute to peace efforts in Ukraine India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that his country is ready to contribute to peace efforts in the ongoing conflict with Russia that has raged for seven months. "He expressed his firm conviction that there can be no military solution to the conflict and conveyed India's readiness to contribute to any peace efforts," the Indian prime minister's office said in a statement after a telephone conversation between Modi and Zelenskiy.

Kremlin welcomes Elon Musk proposal for Ukraine settlement denounced by Kyiv The Kremlin praised Tesla boss Elon Musk on Tuesday for suggesting a possible peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, after Kyiv rebuked Musk for proposing terms it views as rewarding Russia. ........ "It is very positive that somebody like Elon Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of this situation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in a conference call. "Compared to many professional diplomats, Musk is still searching for ways to achieve peace. And achieving peace without fulfilling Russia's conditions is absolutely impossible," he added. ........ In a Twitter poll posted on Monday, the Tesla boss proposed Ukraine permanently cede Crimea to Russia, that new referendums be held under U.N. auspices to determine the fate of Russian-controlled territory, and that Ukraine agree to neutrality. Kyiv says it will never agree to cede land taken by force, and lawful referendums cannot be held in occupied territory where many people have been killed or driven out. After Vladimir Putin announced the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces last week, Kyiv said it was applying to join NATO, and would not negotiate with Russia as long as Putin is president.

Will Russia use nuclear weapons? Putin's warnings explained By claiming 18% of Ukraine as part of Russia, the room for nuclear threats increases as Putin could cast any attack on these territories as an attack on Russia itself. ....... Russia's nuclear doctrine allows for a nuclear strike after "aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened". ....... "He is bluffing right now," said Yuri Fyodorov, a military analyst based in Prague. "But what will happen in a week or a month from now is difficult to say - when he understands the war is lost." ....... Burns, though, said U.S. intelligence had no "practical evidence" that Putin was moving towards using tactical nuclear weapons imminently. ........ Although Russia has specialised nuclear forces trained to fight in such an apocalyptic battlefield, it is unclear how its army of regular troops, mercenaries, drafted reservists and local militias would cope. ...... U.S. President Joe Biden's option would include a non-military response, responding with another nuclear strike that would risk escalation, and responding with a conventional attack that could involve Washington in a direct war with Moscow. ........ Retired General and former CIA chief David Petraeus said that if Moscow used nuclear weapons, then the United States and its NATO allies would destroy Russian troops and equipment in Ukraine - and sink its entire Black Sea fleet. ........

both Moscow and Washington have enough firepower to destroy the world many times over.

........ The U.S. tactical nuclear weapons have adjustable yields of 0.3 to 170 kilotons (the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima was equivalent to about 15 kilotons of dynamite).

Switzerland has 'systemic' racism issues, UN experts say Switzerland has a serious systemic problem with racism against people of African descent, according to a report presented to the U.N. Human Rights Council on Monday, giving a broad range of examples from police brutality to a children's game. ......... "The ubiquity and impunity of this misconduct indicates a serious systemic problem exists," it said. ....... Switzerland's ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva broadly accepted the findings in comments to the council, although questioned the experts' use of a limited number of examples to draw wider conclusions. Landlocked Switzerland was never a colonial power but its banks, traders and municipalities invested heavily and benefited from the transatlantic triangular trade, the report said. ........ It noted efforts to raise public awareness about aspects of Swiss history, such as a petition and debate around the removal of the statue of a banker whose fortune relied on exploitation of enslaved Africans, in the canton of Neuchatel. However, others remained valorised such as Louis Agassiz, an advocate of scientific racism, who has an Alpine peak named after him.

Swiss playground games persist such as "Who is afraid of the Black man?", which have a racially discriminatory effect, the experts said.



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