Tuesday, March 22, 2022

This Time The Russian Transition Should Be Done Right

It was Boris Yeltsin who toppled the Soviet Union, the man with a lot of bravado but no plan. It was also Boris Yeltsin who gave Russia Putin. Russia never had a chance. The collapse was too much. The ordinary Russians never got to make good on the promise. The Soviet Communist Party went away but the KGB took over. There was the collapse, but no buildup.

Russia is and will be a major world power no matter which way you look at it. And to think Russia and China had similar size economies only 30 years ago.

When Putin loses his war in Ukraine, and the Russian people take to the streets to topple the Putin regime, Russia should embrace democracy anew. Russia should be a bigger version of Ukraine.

The democracy in Russia will not be a photocopy of anything anywhere else. No two democracies are alike. Culture and history come into play. Events shape the political process.

I would hope Russia would install robust federalism. It is a large country with many nationalities.

I hope there is a major redistribution of wealth. The Soviet Union collapsed, and what was owned by the state was handed over to key individuals.

It is very important a new Russia works with the US to get rid of more than 90% of the world's nuclear weapons before 2030. That is unfinished business from the Cold War era.

I do think it is healthy for a country to stand up to the US and the West. Imagine a US where there is a Republican Party but no Democratic Party. That would be an unbalance.

A fully democratic, federal Russia will have a sphere of influence. Its very size makes that a given. But that Russia will enhance its influence by respecting the sovereignty of its neighbors.

I hope a democratic Russia puts the country on a path to double digit growth rates. Russia has strong defense, cyber, education, and space industries. It has a lot of natural resources. It can hope to diversify.

And I think it will be a good thing if that Russia is a critique of US policy and actions in the global arena. That would be a welcome counterbalance to have.

But this war in Ukraine is insane.

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