. Russian economy in 'shock' from unprecedented economic war - Kremlin an "absolutely unprecedented" economic war being waged against Moscow.......... "Our economy is experiencing a shock impact now and there are negative consequences, they will be minimised," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call. ........ He described the situation as turbulent, but said that measures to calm and stabilise it were already being taken.
. Kremlin tells United States to await response to "economic war" . The Kremlin accused the United States on Wednesday of declaring an economic war on Russia that was sowing mayhem through energy markets, and put Washington on notice it was considering its response to a ban on Russian oil and energy. ..... Russia's economy is facing the gravest crisis since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union after the West imposed heavy sanctions on almost the entire Russian financial and corporate system following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. ........ The West's attempt to cut off Russia - one of the world's biggest exporters of oil, gas and metals - has hit commodity markets and raised the spectre of spiralling inflation across the world....... Asked about the Kremlin's comments, White House deputy national security adviser Daleep Singh said: "This is brutal and needless war of aggression. We've said all along, if the aggression escalates, so will the costs." ........ Russia said on Monday that oil prices could shoot up to over $300 per barrel if the United States and European Union banned imports of crude from Russia. Brent hit $139 on Monday, its highest since 2008. ...... Russia says Europe consumes about 500 million tonnes of oil a year. Russia supplies around 30% of that, or 150 million tonnes, as well as 80 million tonnes of petrochemicals. ....... "The situation demands a rather deep analysis - those decisions announced by President Biden," Peskov said. "If you are asking me what Russia is going to do - Russia is going to do what is necessary to defend its interests." "The United States definitely has declared economic war against Russia and is waging this war," he said.
. Russia’s Other Contest With the West: Economic Endurance Which side can maintain domestic support as the war costs regular citizens could also determine the outcome in Ukraine......... The severity of Western measures has far exceeded expectations, not only devastating Russia’s economy but also isolating its citizens from travel and even from Western brands. .......... Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s president, had prepared Russia for sanctions like those imposed after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, as if daring Western countries to cut off their citizens from Russian trade and see who blinked first. .......... Now, both sides face a test of their ability to maintain domestic support for a standoff whose costs will be borne by regular citizens. ......... The economic balance favors the West in the extreme. One study estimated that
a full trade war would curb the combined gross domestic product of Western countries by 0.17 percent, but Russia’s by a devastating 9.7 percent
......... Public opinion may also advantage the West, where surveys find wide support for harsh measures against Russia, whereas Mr. Putin dare not even acknowledge the war’s extent for fear of triggering more protests........ Still, Western leaders must maintain unity across 20-plus fractious democracies, persuading citizens from Canada to Bulgaria that spiking energy prices — which may be just the start of the economic shocks — are worth the sacrifice. .......... Mr. Putin, meanwhile, must maintain his grip on both Russia’s public and the network of political power brokers who back him. If their tolerance of the war’s rapidly rising toll slips before Western resolve does, it could imperil not just his war, but his very hold on power. .......... In polls, Europeans across the continent express a moral imperative to punish Russia’s invasion, as well as a belief that Russia now poses a direct threat to their countries. ......... In Germany — the European Union’s largest economy and often its decider on Russia matters — only 38 percent supported increasing military spending as of September, now it is up to 69 percent. ....... leaders like Olaf Scholz of Germany and Emmanuel Macron of France are seeing their approval ratings surge as they rally against Russia. Far from playing down the costs to everyday citizens, some emphasize it as a point of pride. ........ Biden is under countervailing pressure from Republicans and voters alike to simultaneously stand up to Russia while keeping down gas prices ....... Germany imports more than half of its gas from Russia, as does Austria. Some Eastern European countries run on nearly 100 percent Russian gas. ........ Europe’s West gets most of its gas elsewhere, such as from Norway and Algeria. Still, as Russia is cut off from buyers, fossil fuels will become scarcer and therefore costlier worldwide. Some Germans’ energy bills are already projected to increase by two-thirds this year. ........ To ease the burden, European governments are putting in place sweeping energy subsidies, worth 15.5 billion euros, or about $17 billion, in France, €5.5 billion in Italy, €2 billion in Poland, €1.7 billion in Austria, and so on. Many target low-income households. ....... But there may be a timer on Western resilience. Unless European countries radically re-engineer their infrastructure for importing gas or take on perhaps the fastest shift to renewable energy in history — both considered technically feasible but costly — they could potentially run out of fuel next winter. ........ Russia also exports much of the world’s copper and other industrial materials. ........The West’s greatest ally in maintaining unity may be Mr. Putin himself.
By massing forces on NATO’s borders and producing shocking images of destruction in Ukraine, he has given Europeans something to rally against, distracting from their disagreements, for now. ........ has accelerated a kind of authoritarian feedback loop in Russia, with tightening repression feeding popular discontent ......... Putin belongs to a particular club of authoritarians — individual strongmen, rather than military or party dictatorships — for whom popular support is a secondary concern. ...... such leaders draw their power from the backing of political elites, like the heads of security agencies or state industries ....... Authoritarian elites, garrisoned behind vast personal wealth, can more easily endure the economic hardship that will be borne by regular Russians. They also tend to give leaders wide latitude in wartime, which may be why strongmen rarely lose power because of battlefield losses ......... Still, such elites are not fooled by state propaganda. And they are not indifferent to their country’s fate. ......... Surveys of Russian political elites conducted in 2020 found that most backed Mr. Putin for exactly the accomplishments now under threat: stabilizing the country and winning it respect abroad. Many also expressed concern over his handling of the economy — and opposition to military adventurism in Ukraine. .......... “The crisis will be most severe for a minimum of three years. Take the 1998 crisis and multiply it by three,” Oleg Deripaska, a prominent Russian billionaire, said in an unusual break with the Kremlin, referring to Russia’s economically catastrophic 1990s. ......... Sanctions could hurt Mr. Putin with the elite by limiting his ability to distribute the spoils they expect in return for their support. So could popular unrest, if it grows severe enough to make those elites question whether Mr. Putin is imperiling Russia’s stability. .........“Russian public opinion is becoming such a problem that Putin is effectively fighting two wars: one in Ukraine, and one at home”
.......... Bank runs or other forms of mass economic panic, Mr. Greene argued, could trigger a sense of national crisis, overriding even the sanguine lies of state media. ........ You can’t ask citizens to rally around a war you insist does not exist. ........ “The indicators of elite discontent that we have seen thus far are unusual in Putin’s Russia and should therefore be taken seriously” ....... “in the long term, this external pressure — coupled with the domestic unrest — could lead to Putin’s downfall.”.
Ukrainians Find That Relatives in Russia Don’t Believe It’s a War Many Ukrainians are encountering a confounding and frustrating backlash from family members in Russia who have bought into the official Kremlin messaging. ......... “He started to yell at me and told me, ‘Look, everything is going like this. They are Nazis.’”
Here’s how Putin protects himself from assassins and coup plots . Bodyguards with bulletproof briefcases and high-powered pistols, look-alike stand-ins and food tasters are just some of the ways Russian President Vladimir reportedly protects himself from would-be assassins and coup plotters. ....... Putin, a former KGB agent who’s been in power since rising to power in 2000, is apparently obsessed with both his security and his health – protecting himself from assassins and avoiding COVID-19 at all costs, as demonstrated by the lengths to which he’s gone to avoid catching the virus. ......... Recent photos show him meeting with world leaders and even his own advisers at opposite ends of extremely long tables to maintain at least 20 feet of distance between them, and he donned a hazmat suit — complete with a full face respirator — before visiting a Moscow hospital treating coronavirus patients in April 2020. .......... Putin’s bodyguards — who call themselves his “Musketeers” — comprise a special unit within Russia’s Federal Protective Service, or FSO, which traces its roots to 1881, when Czar Alexander III surrounded himself with guards following the assassination of his father by a bomb-throwing revolutionary ........... Putin’s bodyguards are hand-picked for qualities that include “operational psychology,” physical stamina and the ability to withstand cold and not sweat in heat. ....... They’re reportedly outfitted with special briefcases that serve as shields to protect Putin and carry Russian-made, 9 mm SR-1 Vektor pistols loaded with armor-piercing bullets. ........
Before Putin travels, advance teams scout out his destination months ahead of time, checking to see how the public will likely respond
and even if the area could be affected by bad weather or natural disasters. ......... Wherever he’s going to stay gets inspected, jamming devices are installed to prevent remote detonation of bombs and technicians conduct electronic surveillance of cellphones and other devices in the area. ......... On the road, Putin rides amid a convoy of heavily armored vans that carry military special operators armed with AK-47s, anti-tank grenade launchers and portable anti-aircraft missiles. ........ And when he steps out in public, four rings of security surround him, starting with his personal bodyguards, others hidden amid the crowd, still more ringing the perimeter and snipers perched on the surrounding rooftops. ........ And when he steps out in public, four rings of security surround him, starting with his personal bodyguards, others hidden amid the crowd, still more ringing the perimeter and snipers perched on the surrounding rooftops. ........ Putin’s bodyguards reportedly have to be replaced upon turning 35, but they can be rewarded with powerful new posts as regional governors, federal ministers, special services commanders and presidential administrators. .......... a giant Soviet-era poultry plant outside Moscow was appropriated and its valuable land was divvied up among high-ranking officers in the FSO and the Presidential Security Service. ........ Among those who benefitted from the scam were three former Putin bodyguards who were recorded flanking him during an official trip to Helsinki, Finland, in 1999 ....... the FSO sometimes employed a “presidential body double” to ensure the safety of Putin, or “body No. 1.” ........ Putin also has someone sample every meal he’s served to ensure he’s not being poisonedWar in Ukraine enters third week
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