Saturday, February 26, 2022

The Endgame In Russia

Putin's Russia is a minor size economy. The Putin regime inside Russia is illegitimate. Putin is an autocrat. The people of Ukraine are being asked to fight the fight that the Russians inside Russia needed to fight. I don't see how this is going to go down well for Putin. Putin taking Kyiv is when the countdown begins. It is only a matter of time before the Putin regime implodes. Hopefully, Russia will see a liberal democracy and a subsequent resurgent economy. Ukraine will pave the way. A resurgent Russian economy will earn Russia its rightful place on the world map. This is Putin's Afghanistan. Liberty is worth fighting for. Putin just made a very bad move. Support for him will collapse inside Russia. NATO can not send in troops. But it needs to send in all possible military aid. It needs to organize camps for Ukrainian rebel fighters outside of Ukraine in the neighboring NATO member countries where they may regroup and plan their moves. The president of Ukraine needs to make a strategic retreat and step outside the country to become an active symbol of resistance. This is Afghanistan but it will not last 10 years. Putin is lucky if it will last one year. 

This is not about the United States. This is about Ukraine. This is not about NATO. This is about Ukraine. Ukraine is a sovereign country with the right to decide its own destiny. Putin is in the wrong. Putin's sugar high of the Ukraine invasion will not last. The hangover will kick in fast and will be lingering. 


Street fighting begins in Kyiv; people urged to seek shelter Russian troops are storming toward Ukraine’s capital, and street fighting is breaking out ....... The country's president refused an American offer to evacuate, insisting that he would stay. “The fight is here,” he said. ..........  Skirmishes reported on the edge of the city suggested that small Russian units were probing Ukrainian defenses to clear a path for the main forces. .........  Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered renewed assurance Saturday that the country’s military would stand up to the Russian invasion. In a video recorded on a downtown street, he said he had not left the city and that claims that the Ukrainian military would put down arms were false. ........... Putin is determined to overthrow Ukraine's government and replace it with a regime of his own. ......... quoted the president as saying that “the fight is here" and that he needed anti-tank ammunition but “not a ride.” ......... The U.S. and other global powers slapped ever-tougher sanctions on Russia as the invasion reverberated through the world’s economy and energy supplies. U.N. officials said millions could flee Ukraine. Sports leagues moved to punish Russia, and even the popular Eurovision song contest banned it from the May finals in Italy. ........... The 11-1 vote, with China, India and the United Arab Emirates abstaining, showed significant opposition to Russia’s invasion of its smaller, militarily weaker neighbor. .......... up to 4 million could flee if the fighting escalates. ........ Zelenskyy earlier offered to negotiate on a key Putin demand: that Ukraine declare itself neutral and abandon its ambition of joining NATO. ......... Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, called the sanctions against Putin and Lavrov “an example and a demonstration of a total helplessness” of the West.

As Putin eyes Ukraine invasion, Trump praises his actions as 'genius'.  Donald Trump is calling the actions of the Russian president "genius" and "savvy." .......  Trump praised the Russian president while simultaneously slamming President Joe Biden for the situation. ......... Trump has long expressed an admiration for Putin, saying on Tuesday that as president, he got along "great" with the Russian leader. "He liked me. I liked him. I mean, you know, he's a tough cookie, got a lot of great charm and a lot of pride," Trump said. "And he loves his country, you know? He loves his country."

Putin was playing Biden all along The U.S. president and his aides thought they could manage Putin. Their calculations were dead wrong.  .........  for the past year, Biden tried repeatedly to reason with the steely-eyed strongman. ........... In launching a massive assault on Ukraine this week, Putin proved that he sees the world, and his interests, very differently than Biden hoped. He also proved resistant to many traditional tools of diplomacy and deterrence. ...........  The Ukraine attack and the risk of a larger war in Europe also bodes ill for the administration’s ability to focus on other priorities going forward, in particular the challenge of a rising China. ..........  On Thursday, Biden doubled down on the existing strategy, unveiling more sanctions, deploying more U.S. troops to Europe and promising more diplomacy to keep America and its allies unified. He warned that “Putin’s aggression against Ukraine will end up costing Russia dearly economically and strategically. We will make sure of that. Putin will be a pariah on the international stage.” .........  And on Thursday, the Russian leader dramatically escalated what is already an eight-year-long war, bombing major Ukrainian cities in an effort to take as much of the country as possible. ............  Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, as well as its citizens’ preference for democracy, only added to Putin’s fears that the country could be a long-term threat to his own. ........... At the same time, Putin has watched — and sometimes aided — regimes in places like Syria, Venezuela, and Iran, which have survived despite Western diplomatic threats and economic sanctions. ......... Putin is a believer in the ability of hard power to change the global order, and he may simply be less susceptible to what Biden may see as logical appeals to think about his global reputation..........  Putin, meanwhile, believes time is on his side. He’s planning to stay in power long after Biden departs, and he likely expects that the current united front that America and its allies are putting up against him will crack over time, especially if Europe feels ongoing pain from the blowback on Russian sanctions. ........... U.S. and European efforts to isolate Russia through sanctions will likely lead Moscow to lean on Beijing for trade and other economic relations. A solidified China-Russia bloc could then exert significant pressure on other countries to align with it or to at least stay neutral. .......... if Putin’s gambit in Ukraine succeeds, China might apply some of its lessons to its long-standing desire to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control. 

Putin’s Endgame: Unravel the Post-Cold War Agreements That Humiliated Russia Moscow’s military forces threaten Ukraine, but the bigger prize is restoration of Russia’s sphere of influence stretching through Eastern Europe ........  The world’s attention is on eastern Ukraine, where Moscow’s forces circle. Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond. He wants to renegotiate the end of the Cold War.



India explores setting up rupee trade accounts with Russia to soften sanctions blow.  India is exploring ways to set up a rupee payment mechanism for trade with Russia to soften the blow on New Delhi of Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine ........ vital supplies of fertilizer from Russia could be disrupted as sanctions intensify, threatening India's vast farm sector. ....... Russia invaded Ukraine by land, air and sea on Thursday in the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two ........ Such mechanisms are often used by countries to shield themselves from the blow of sanctions and India also used it with Iran after it came under Western sanctions for its nuclear weapons programme ........... Russia's exports to India stood at $6.9 billion in 2021, mainly mineral oils, fertilisers and rough diamonds, while India exported $3.33 billion worth of goods to Russia in 2021, mainly pharmaceutical products, tea and coffee. ....... Russia and Belarus usually account for nearly a third of India's total potash imports. It would not be feasible to replace them amid a rally in fertilizer prices to a record high 





Fast becoming a cult hero, Ukraine leader Zelenskyy snubs US offer to evacuate him
Ukraine President rejects US offer to evacuate Kyiv: 'I need ammunition, not a ride' Putin has been reluctant in paying heed to such calls and even urged Ukraine’s military to mutiny. ........ "Strengthening sanctions, concrete defence assistance and an anti-war coalition have just been discussed" with Biden, Zelensky wrote on Twitter while expressing gratitude for "strong" American support.

Ukraine fight isn't proceeding as quickly as Russia expected, U.S. Defense official says Russia has encountered tougher resistance than it had anticipated from Ukrainian troops ...... About a third of the Russian troops that were placed along Ukraine's borders have now crossed into Ukraine

Should we be worried about nuclear war? . “No matter who tries to stand in our way or … create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.” ........ “Today’s Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states,” Putin said. ....... The Russian invasion has relied entirely on conventional weapons — tanks rattling down highways, bombers flying overhead, ships landing in the port city of Odesa — and experts told Vox that in the absence of a shocking escalation, that isn’t likely to change. ........ Russia has about 6,000 nuclear weapons and the United States has about 5,500. Either nuclear arsenal is large enough to kill billions of people — but also to serve as a deterrent against attack. ....... The seven other countries known to have nuclear weapons have much smaller arsenals. Most countries in the world have signed onto the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which limits the development of nuclear weapons. ...... “I think there is virtually no chance nuclear weapons are going to be used in the Ukraine situation,” said Matthew Bunn, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and former adviser to President Clinton’s Office of Science and Technology Policy. ........ The main reason, Bunn said, is that the United States and its NATO allies have made clear that they will not send troops to Ukraine. Without the threat of military intervention, Putin has little reason to use his nuclear weapons, especially since Russia has a staggering numbers advantage over the Ukrainian military. ........ “His objective is to simply swallow Ukraine — and restore not just the [power of the] Soviet Union, but the Tsarist empire.” ........ Russia’s roughly 5,977 warheads make it the country with the largest nuclear arsenal. Kristensen said most of those warheads are in reserves, with only about 1,600 deployed as land, sea, and air-based weapons, such as missile silos or bombs dropped by planes. (When the USSR fell apart at the end of the Cold War, there were nuclear weapons left behind on Ukrainian soil, but Ukraine returned them to Russia.) ......... The countries known to have nuclear weapons are Russia, the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. That includes every permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which have been working to modernize their nuclear weapons over the past few decades, and three members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The total number of weapons has dropped by about 80 percent since the end of the Cold War, from an estimated 70,300 in 1986 to 12,700 in early 2022........... “The element of emotion and anger that’s crept into Putin’s statements in particular is striking,” said Hare. “Normally we’ve associated Russia’s diplomatic style with a kind of laconic, almost sarcastic manner.” ........ It’s worth remembering, Kristensen added, that Putin often makes allusions to Russia’s nuclear arsenal as a show of strength. In 2015, he told a Russian state TV documentary that he had considered putting Russian nuclear forces on alert during the Russian annexation of Crimea a year prior. ....... “He lives in a very small bubble, and he’s deeply paranoid,” Kristensen said. “He’s willing to do really not very rational things.” ...... the threat of nuclear weapons is the reason the US won’t send troops to Ukraine. ....... The existence of nuclear weapons “didn’t help us in Vietnam, they didn’t help us in Iraq, they didn’t help us in Afghanistan ......... “The whole international order is sort of being thrown up in the air. Is the Ukraine attack going to be a prelude to an attack on, say, the Baltic States that are even more vulnerable, or is Putin going to be satisfied with Ukraine?” ........ “We’re starting to see large powers begin to sort of entertain the thought of limited tactical nuclear weapons use scenarios, in a way that they didn’t spend very much time thinking about 10 years ago,” said Kristensen. These are the sorts of unlikely scenarios that have been tossed around in war games as contingencies since the Cold War, and could entail strikes on isolated military targets that are far from population centers .......... North Korea continues to build up its nuclear arsenal, India and Pakistan appear to be engaging in an arms race to build up short-range tactical nuclear weapons, and hostility is ratcheting up between the US, Russia, and China. ....... For decades, Bunn added, about one in every 10 US lightbulbs was powered by uranium from decommissioned Russian warheads, which was sent to American nuclear power plants — a reminder that the world actively worked together to turn a tool of destruction into a force for good. “That’s remarkable,” Bunn said. “It’s never been true before in human history that the most powerful weapon available to our species was widely forsworn.”

Russia-Ukraine latest news: Turkey could block Russian warship access to Black Sea, Zelenskiy suggests, in blow to Putin .



Russia’s Assault in Ukraine Slows After an Aggressive Start The invading forces have faced stiff resistance, but President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could quickly send in more troops, Pentagon officials said. ......... For the Russian military, the difficult part came quickly. ........ It is one thing to cross the border of another country with tanks and artillery, protected by warplanes above, Pentagon officials and analysts say. It is another thing entirely to lay siege to cities and an army populated by people willing to put their lives on the line to protect what they view as their sovereign right to self-determination. ......... as Ukrainian fighters mounted a resistance. No population centers had been taken ....... The Ukrainian air defense and missile defense systems were degraded, he said, but the country’s air force was still flying planes and denying air access to Russia. ......... Russia was conducting most of its initial operations during the day, suggesting that its ability to fight at night — a hallmark of the American military — was less effective. ........ Russia was still in the initial phases of an operation that could take two to three weeks to seize most of the country. ........ The Russian military, with its decisive edge in cyberwarfare, tanks, heavy weaponry, missiles, fighter planes, warships and sheer numbers, dwarfs that of Ukraine. ........ While Russia has established attack lines into three cities — Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the northeast and Kherson in the south — Ukrainian troops are fighting to hold all three. ....... Ukrainian command and control remains intact. ......... Russia’s attack lines are bottlenecked, a second official said, as Ukrainian troops fiercely engage against the Russians. The resistance, the official said, is why the Russian troops massed at the border have not all crossed. ....... “But it’s a dynamic situation.” ......... If Russian intelligence has figured out where Mr. Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership are hiding, the Russian military will probably try to take them out with rockets and airstrikes ......... “But the narrative that they’ve overrun Ukraine is very premature. We’re just a couple of days into this, and it could go on a long time.” ........ Ukrainian troops and citizens are fighting back ........ “The Ukrainians are badly overmatched in technology and sheer combat power, especially in the air and at sea, but are fighting on their homeland to protect their children and families,” said retired Adm. James G. Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander for Europe. “Motivation is far higher on their side, and the intangibles can help.” ....... The Russian military attack continued on Friday as it started the day before: with the terrifying thud of artillery strikes on airports and military installations all over Ukraine. ....... the Russians, using missiles and long-range artillery, were facing particularly strong resistance near Kyiv and Kharkiv. ....... Why Russia has not launched even larger cyberattacks across the country, and shut down virtually all communications, to cut off military units from their commanders in Kyiv and from each other remained a bit of a mystery on Friday. ......... many of Ukraine’s internet and phone communications go through Russia, Moscow might be leaving some lines open to eavesdrop on Ukrainian civilian and military officials. ......... By midday Friday, Russian forces had fired more than 200 missiles, mostly short-range ballistic rockets but also cruise missiles and rockets fired from the Black Sea, at targets across Ukraine ......... Russia insisted it was not bombing civilian targets and was trying to limit casualties in the Ukrainian military. ....... “Putin’s M.O. is to install new government and have them do the dirty work” ... “It’s unclear if he is underestimating the level of Ukrainian nationalism that’s developed since 2014.” .



Thousands of Russians protest President Vladimir V. Putin’s assault on Ukraine. Some chant: ‘No to war!’ At the demonstrations, many people said they felt depressed and broken by the news of Russian military action. ........ Thousands of protesters took to the streets and squares of Russian cities on Thursday to protest President Vladimir V. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, only to be met with heavy police presence. ....... While many Russians credit Mr. Putin with lifting their country out of the economic hardship and instability of the 1990s, others are deeply uneasy about his leadership. And tough sanctions that affect everyday Russians, like potential technology embargoes that could separate Russians from their beloved next-generation phones, could diminish his support at home. .......... years of government oppression made the risks of taking part in anti-Kremlin demonstrations very high. ....... Russian people “will only get poorer because we depend on international trade so much.” ............

Oxxxymiron, one of Russia’s most popular rappers, called for an antiwar movement to be created in Russia that would unite people.

......... “I know that most people in Russia are against this war, and I am confident that the more people would talk about their real attitude to it, the faster we can stop this horror,” said Oxxxymiron, also known as Miron Fyodorov. ........... He referred to American protests against the war in Vietnam as an inspiration. “This is a crime and a catastrophe,” he said, adding that he will cancel his six sold out concerts in Moscow and St. Petersburg because of what happened. ..... “I cannot entertain you when Russian missiles are falling on Ukraine,” said Oxxxymiron in a statement, published in his Instagram account. “When residents of Kyiv are forced to hide in basements and in the metro, while people are dying.” ....... But last year, with the economy stumbling and the pandemic raging, opposition groups held some of the largest anti-Putin protests in years. .

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