If Russia Invades Ukraine, Questions Arise Over Taiwan

If Russis invades Ukraine this will be a 9/11 level event, a major departure point, and a formal start of a new Cold War where Russia and China are now allies should China invade Taiwan. But Taiwan is a tougher nut to crack. Japan and the US are pledged to go to war on behalf of Taiwan. And Russia might be mistaken in thinking China is waiting for a cue from Russia and waiting to follow its lead. As fas as China is concerned, Russia is no longer the dominant number two power, has not been a long time.

For all of Putin's rhetoric about not letting NATO come to Russia's doorsteps, will not a Russian invasion of Ukrain automatically bring NATO to the new Russia's doorstep? I don't think it is going to be easy for Putin. Ukraine could prove tougher than Afghanistan. If it is a quagmire, it could herald the end of the Putin regime in Russia, again paralleling the Afghanistan debacle bringing down the Soviet Union.

But what a terrible way to make a mistake.

Russia is not willing to treat Ukraine like a sovereign country. This is wrong.

At this point I have a hard time believing Putin might attempt a Kuwait in Ukraine. The move will be too costly for him. But Ukraine is nowhere close to joining NATO. And Putin might keep a bulk of his troops stationed on the Ukraine border a long time. Threatening war gives him great leverage. Actual invasion robs him of major leverage and might cascade into a collapse of his regime inside Russia.

A better available path is to focus on uplifting Russia's economy and doing the political work necessary to normalize relations with NATO countries to bring threat levels down to near zero. Robust trade can do that. There is no better way to make NATO irrelevant. Make them yawn.

There is no better way to make NATO irrelevant. Make them yawn. https://t.co/6GE4rbWy2N #RussiaUkraineCrisis #russia #Ukraine #UkraineCrisis #ukraine #Putin

— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) February 12, 2022

Compromise will be key to ending the Ukraine crisis Will efforts at achieving peace be scuppered by those who would rather see the conflict remain frozen until one side takes all ........ The USSR did pull its missiles out of Cuba as Rifkind states, but the US reciprocated by withdrawing comparable missiles from Turkey and promised not to invade the island. ........ In 2013 in Ukraine, in the midst of a worsening political crisis, France, Germany, Russia and Poland and the then Ukrainian government led by Viktor Yanukovych and most of the Ukrainian opposition thrashed out a peace plan to take the country forward. The more nationalist elements of Ukrainian society, backed by hawks in the US and elsewhere, rejected the plan and there followed a constitutional crisis, a Russian invasion and dismemberment of Ukraine. No nuclear annihilation for the world, but a real catastrophe for the people of Ukraine. .......... In the aftermath of all of this, in 2014 and 2015, a second peace plan was put on the table, the Minsk framework, revisited in the last few days and weeks following talk of a Russian invasion. Could its provisions for devolved self-government for the east of Ukraine, alongside the sanctity of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, be the prelude to a peaceful transition that would benefit both sides of Ukraine’s body politic? Or will efforts at achieving peace be scuppered by those both inside and outside the country who would rather see the conflict remain frozen until one side takes all? ........ “Naturally, the common people don’t want war, but after all it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along … voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. This is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and for exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country.” ...... Regarding Emmanuel Macron and the “personal assurances” over the Russia-Ukraine crisis he has received from Vladimir Putin (Report, 8 February), didn’t Neville Chamberlain obtain assurances – written, in his case – from Adolf Hitler about Germany invading Czechoslovakia back in 1938? At least Macron hasn’t been waving a piece of paper about by way of evidence. .

US warns of ‘distinct possibility’ Russia will invade Ukraine within days Joe Biden due to speak with Putin by phone on Saturday ...... Officials tell Americans to leave Ukraine in next 48 hours ....... The US has warned of the “very distinct possibility” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next few days, potentially involving an overwhelming attack on Kyiv ...... Biden has told other Nato and EU leaders that the US believes Putin has decided to carry out an invasion of Ukraine, which could happen in the next few days ........ “If you stay you are assuming risk with no guarantee that there will be any other opportunity to leave, and there is no prospect of a US military evacuation in the event of a Russian invasion” ....... “If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality. A subsequent ground invasion would involve the onslaught of a massive force with virtually no notice. Communications to arrange a departure could be severed and commercial transit halted.” .

CIA has been secretly collecting data on Americans in bulk, senators say The program operates under the authority of Executive Order 12333 ..... Their letter to the top intelligence officials was partially declassified on Thursday. The two accused the CIA of conducting the program "entirely outside the statutory framework that Congress and the public believe govern this collection, and without any of the judicial, congressional or even executive branch oversight that comes with FISA [Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act] collection." .......

The program operates under the authority of Executive Order 12333, the document that broadly governs intelligence community activity and was first signed by President Ronald Reagan in 1981.

....... The two senators said they appreciated the recommendations, but their "letter also stressed that the public deserves to know more about the collection of this information. The DNI and the CIA Director have started this process. We intend to continue to urge them to achieve the transparency the American people deserve." .

Pentagon sends another 3,000 U.S. troops to Poland amid threat of Russian attack on Ukraine . President Biden has ruled out any possibility that American troops will fight in Ukraine. ....... “They are being deployed to reassure our NATO allies, deter any potential aggression against NATO’s eastern flank, train with host-nation forces, and contribute to a wide range of contingencies.” ....... Russia will invade in a “very swift time frame.” ......... “There will be no opportunity to leave and no prospect of a U.S. military evacuation in the event of a rush invasion,” Sullivan told reporters at the White House. Missile strikes or aerial bombing could come before an invasion, he said, so “no one would be able to count on rail or air or road departures.” ........ At the Pentagon, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke by phone Friday with his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, and held additional conversations with U.S. allies at NATO and in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania and the United Kingdom, the Pentagon said. ....... Several hundred U.S. National Guard troops remained in Ukraine as of Friday on a mission to train Ukrainian forces, defense officials said. Kirby has said previously they could be withdrawn quickly if necessary. .

Facing maximum pressure from Russia, Zelensky refuses to blink at the negotiating table . With Russian warships and tanks encircling his country amid dire warnings from the United States about an impending invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown himself to be resistant to the pressure he faces from Russia — and from Europe, too. ......... A key obstacle, according to diplomats familiar with the discussions, was Kyiv’s opposition to negotiating with the pro-Russian separatists with whom they’ve been in a deadly but low-intensity conflict for the past eight years. Fighting in the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk has continued despite a cease-fire agreement. Up to 14,000 people have been killed since violence broke out in 2014. ....... Russia has called on Ukraine to grant greater powers to the breakaway regions within Luhansk and Donetsk, an area known as the Donbas. Moscow holds that pro-Russian separatists should have a say, if not veto, over the policies of a Ukrainian federal government — a notion Kyiv opposes as it could preclude Ukraine from becoming a member of NATO or the European Union. ........ For the Zelensky government, granting greater autonomy to the breakaway regions could require constitutional reforms that are deeply unpopular. Direct talks with the separatists, whom many Ukrainian officials consider “terrorists,” also are deeply controversial. ....... That resistance comes despite concerns that if talks fail, Russian President Vladimir Putin could walk away from diplomacy and order a military assault on Ukraine. But Zelensky has other matters to consider as well. ..........

Zelensky could face stiff resistance in parliament to any deal seen as giving in to Russia’s demands, and which lays the groundwork for a state-within-the-state in Donbas run by Moscow’s proxies.

....... The purpose of Russia’s interpretation of the Minsk agreements was to create a “Yalta Two” — or a division of Europe similar to what took place after World War II, Ariev said. He added that he was steadfastly opposed to a “Finlandization” of Ukraine, a reference to the neutral status of Finland during the Cold War that ensured its independence. .

White House Warns Russian Invasion of Ukraine Could Happen at Any Time A host of countries, including the United States, have told their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately........ Ukraine warned that drills by Russia and Russian-backed separatists had left the country all but encircled and its ports effectively blockaded, the latest evidence of a shift in tone after weeks in which Ukraine’s leaders had downplayed the threat of an attack. .......... U.S. intelligence officials had initially thought Mr. Putin would wait until the end of the Winter Olympics in Beijing later this month before deciding whether to go ahead with an offensive, to avoid antagonizing President Xi Jinping of China, a critical ally. In recent days, however, new intelligence and further Russian troop deployments prompted a change in their assessment. American officials said it was still unclear whether Mr. Putin had made a decision to invade. .......... acknowledged the possibility that the mention of a particular date could be part of a Russian disinformation effort ......... Russia has made a series of demands of the West, including scaling back the NATO military presence in Eastern Europe to 1990s levels and guaranteeing that Ukraine could never join NATO. ........ “What I do know about Putin is he likes uncertainty,” said Michael A. McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. “He has leveraged that in the past for advantage. He is forcing Biden’s hand and everybody else’s.” ....... Next week, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is scheduled to visit Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv and Moscow, fresh from a visit to Washington where he and Mr. Biden promised a “united” front on shutting down Nord Stream 2, a lucrative Germany-to-Russia gas pipeline project, should Russia invade Ukraine. .........

Russia’s foreign ministry dismissed American talk of war as mere propaganda.

....... “A coordinated information attack is being conducted against Moscow,” the ministry said in a statement, along with a list of previous Western warnings of a possible imminent invasion. That messaging, it said, is “aimed at undermining and discrediting Russia’s fair demands for security guarantees, as well as at justifying Western geopolitical aspirations and military absorption of Ukraine’s territory.” .........

“The White House’s hysteria is as revealing as ever. The Anglo-Saxons need war. At any price.”

....... Mr. Sullivan disagreed with the idea that informing Americans of Russia’s military capabilities was the same as calling for a war. ........ the potential deaths of 25,000 to 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 members of the Ukrainian military and 3,000 to 10,000 members of the Russian military ......... an attack would likely start with missile and aerial attacks, and continue with a ground invasion. ..... Russian-backed separatists were holding military exercises in the slice of eastern Ukraine they controlled, at the same time that Russia holds exercises near Ukraine. .......... “If there’s a war tomorrow, Putin has calculated that Zelensky will be blamed for not preparing for war,” Mr. McFaul said, referencing President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. “That doesn’t get a lot of attention in our press, but that’s a very big part of his strategy. Ideally, he would like to see democracy in Ukraine fall, and Zelensky personally fall.” .......... Ukraine this week began its own nationwide military exercises to coincide with joint Russian and Belarusian exercises to the north of Ukraine, in Belarus, only 140 miles from Kyiv. ....... To the south, the Russian Navy announced on Thursday the closure of large swaths of the Black Sea for live-fire exercises by its fleet that will effectively blockade Ukrainian ports, including the port of Odessa. The naval exercises were scheduled to begin Sunday and last six days. ........ Separate talks in Moscow on Thursday between the British foreign secretary, Liz Truss, and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, also went nowhere, with Mr. Lavrov comparing them to “the conversation of a mute person with a deaf person.” .

Finns Don’t Wish ‘Finlandization’ on Ukraine (or Anyone) The Cold War term for a kind of stifled sovereignty has gained attention as a possible solution to the standoff with Russia. But the nation it’s named for would rather forget about it. ....... For decades, Finland survived as an independent and unoccupied democracy in the shadow of the Soviet Union by handing the Kremlin outsized influence over its politics and hewing to a delicate neutrality during the Cold War. ........... That model — known in diplomatic circles as Finlandization — is now being invoked as a possible solution to the standoff over Ukraine, an idea that would effectively neutralize its sovereignty and possibly allow Russia a new sphere of influence for a new era. .......... “It has for Finns a negative ring to it,” said Mika Aaltola, the director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “It has to do with a very difficult period in Finnish history.” ........ While the policy helped this nation at the fringe of the Arctic avoid the fate of Central and Eastern European countries to the south, which were occupied as part of the Soviet bloc, Finland’s independence came at the cost of swallowing no small dose of self-censorship and foreign sway. ......... If anything, Russia’s menacing of Ukraine has only encouraged Finns to debate more openly than before whether NATO makes sense for them, and the once overwhelming opposition is eroding. But Finns are also clearly aware they have a delicate relationship to manage with Russia and are careful not to unnecessarily provoke President Vladimir V. Putin. Still, that is a far cry from the concessions forced upon it during the Cold War. ........... Russia, which ruled Finland from 1809 to 1917 ....... (“They should pursue a posture comparable to that of Finland,” Henry Kissinger wrote in the Washington Post, while Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote “the Finnish model is ideal for Ukraine.”) ......... But Finns said that model rewarded politicians who did Russia’s bidding, ostracized those who balked at Russian influence, and introduced a crop of Soviet secret operatives in the country who worked closely with the Finnish elite. ......... during the Cold War, self-censorship extended from the corridors of power to the family living room. ........... overt criticism of Russia, while not illegal, was taboo. ....... “Finns understand what happens in Ukraine doesn’t stay in Ukraine” ........... In January, Finland’s liberal prime minister, Sanna Marin, told Reuters that it was “very unlikely” that Finland would apply for NATO membership during her current term in office. Conservatives called her naïve, but political analysts said it might have been a wily move to undercut her critics’ use of NATO as a political issue. .

Putin Is Operating on His Own Timetable, and It May Be a Long One The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine could turn into a drawn-out and dangerous diplomatic slog toward a difficult settlement. .......... The Ukraine crisis is here to stay. ........... Even if he does not order an invasion this winter, he is making clear that he will keep the pressure on, backed by the threat of force, for as long as it takes to get his way. .......... the best-case scenario as a long and dangerous diplomatic slog toward a difficult settlement — a process that could consume Western resources and attention for many months. ........ Russia would suffer “far-reaching consequences” if it attacked Ukraine. ........ “I expect we’ll have this crisis with us, in various forms, for all of 2022, at least,” said Andrei Sushentsov, dean of the school of international relations at MGIMO, the elite Moscow university run by the Russian Foreign Ministry. ........

Russia’s aim, according to Mr. Sushentsov: keep the threat of war ever-present, and thus compel negotiations that Western officials have avoided until now.

..... The lesson of the chaotic Afghan withdrawal last summer, to Mr. Putin, may have been that the U.S. has no stomach for a distant conflict — and Ukraine is distant to the U.S. but not to Russia. ....... there remain numerous lower-grade options that Mr. Putin is considering that could touch off a less deadly but still costly conflict. ........ in case Mr. Putin decides that the least costly way to destabilize the Zelensky government is by turning off the power or communications. ........ Putin’s demands are so expansive — and his disdain of Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders so great — that analysts struggle to imagine a grand bargain being struck. .......... “Ukraine in NATO, from my point of view or Russia’s, would be the equivalent of nuclear war.” ........... Mr. Putin made the threat of war over Ukraine between nuclear superpowers explicit twice in recent days — in news conferences after his meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary last week and with Mr. Macron on Monday. Both times, Mr. Putin described a scenario in which Ukraine would join NATO and then, with the Western alliance’s backing, try to recapture Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014. ..........

a 2018 line by Mr. Putin. “And then not just America, but also Europe, will turn into radioactive ash.”

....... Western officials describe NATO membership for Ukraine as unrealistic anytime in the near future, but the Kremlin insists that even the possibility poses an existential threat. ........ many analysts inside Russia continue to doubt that Mr. Putin will actually order a full invasion. The risks would far exceed any of Mr. Putin’s prior military pushes, like the five-day war against Georgia in 2008 or the still-simmering proxy war in eastern Ukraine that he started in 2014. Russian missiles could miss their targets, causing civilian casualties; Ukraine could respond by attacking Russian targets across the border. .