Putin’s Historic Miscalculation May Make Him a War Criminal The West condemns Russia’s aggression as “barbaric” and “horrific,” as Biden warns that conflict could drag on for weeks or months. ......... In the eyes of the world and almost certainly history, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday was an epic miscalculation, drawing comparisons to Adolf Hitler and Saddam Hussein for cold-blooded aggression ...... “Peace on our continent has been shattered,” the nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg told reporters.
“We now have war in Europe on a scale and of a type we thought belonged to history.”
.......... Putin “has much larger ambitions than Ukraine.” “He wants to, in fact, reëstablish the former Soviet Union,” Biden said. ........ Putin may now also qualify as a war criminal, according to the Geneva Conventions of 1949. War crimes include willful killing and extensive destruction of property “not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.” The term has been inconsistently interpreted and unevenly applied to leaders or countries—including to the U.S. and its officials—who have initiated aggression for reasons considered unjustified. In Ukraine, Putin’s “war of choice” has clearly violated international law through his invasion of a sovereign country and attempt to oust its government. ......... Putin has lied at every stage of the Ukraine crisis, insisting last year that he had no military ambitions in Ukraine even as he steadily amassed a force of nearly two hundred thousand troops on three fronts. ........ Putin’s invasion is based on wild accusations, including a claim that he needed to “denazify” Ukraine, a country led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is, in fact, Jewish. Putin vowed to end the “humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime,” when, in fact, separatists backed by Russia have for years waged a war in eastern Ukraine. Putin also claimed that the Kyiv government sought to acquire nuclear weapons when, in fact, Ukraine, once the third-largest nuclear power, denuclearized after the Soviet Union collapsed and it became an independent country again. He described the government in Kyiv as a “junta,” even though it was democratically elected in 2019. And Zelensky, in fact, won in a landslide with seventy-three per cent of the vote, defeating thirty-eight others who ran for President. ......... Russia experts and former U.S. officials increasingly question Putin’s stability, especially as he has surrounded himself with like-minded advisers and yes-men who encourage his ambitions to rewrite history. “Putin believes that in historical terms, as in Peter the Great and so on, blood will be forgotten and his legacy as the uniter of the ‘Russian lands,’ no matter the cost, will remain,” Nina Khrushcheva, an international-affairs professor at the New School in New York and the great-granddaughter of former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev, told me. She said the Russian leader appears to “have lost all grip on reality, more so than I was willing to admit only yesterday.” She added, “I didn’t think he was suicidal, but he clearly is, and is taking the world and us with him.” She described Putin as a “ruthless megalomaniac with a giant imperialist agenda” akin to Stalin and Mao. ..........“There are many parallels between Hitler’s invasion of Poland in 1939 and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022”
............. Putin no longer appears to be a rational actor on the international stage ...... “I hate comparing people to Hitler, but Putin’s crazy talk is making it hard to avoid,” Stephen Sestanovich, a Russia expert at Columbia University, told me. “Did he think forcing all of his advisers to stand up on television and say, in such obvious discomfort, that they agreed with him would make the decision for war look careful and deliberate? My Russian friends suggest something different—is this guy losing it?” .......... The Ukrainian government has called up reservists and promised weapons to civilians to form a public resistance force. ......... “But history has shown time and again how swift gains in territory eventually give way to grinding occupations, acts of massive mass civil disobedience, and strategic dead ends.” .
How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine hit the global economy? Soaring energy prices alone could tip the world into a second recession in three years ......... A conflict that could develop into Europe’s biggest since the second world war has shattered hopes of a strong global economic recovery from coronavirus at least in the short term. ........ Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Thursday shook financial markets and the increased geopolitical tensions are set to exacerbate high inflation and supply chain bottlenecks. ........ If energy prices continued to soar, for example, it could easily tip the global economy into a second recession in three years. ........ Putin’s desired endgame is unclear. Analysts are considering several scenarios that range from a change of government in Kyiv to a Moscow-friendly regime to a wholesale attempt to redraw the international boundaries of Europe and beyond. ........... China, which has signalled its willingness to help Russia manage the financial fallout from its military actions. ...... the market reaction was orderly and not indicative yet of expectations of a wider war across Europe. ........ The country supplies about 40 per cent of the world’s palladium, a key component of catalytic converters in petrol-powered vehicles as well as electronic devices. ...... Europe is highly dependent on gas from Russia and cannot quickly find alternative supplies if pipelines are cut. ....... “Our modelling suggests that in a worst-case scenario oil prices could rise to $120-140 a barrel,” said Capital Economics’ Shearing. “If sustained through the rest of this year, and we see a corresponding increase in European natural gas prices, that would add about 2 percentage points to advanced economy inflation — more in Europe, less in the US. So that’s an additional squeeze on real incomes.” .
US governors order state-run liquor stores to stop selling Russian vodka Governors of Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Utah say symbolic move shows support for Ukraine .
Would Vladimir Putin actually use nuclear weapons? Russian president has ordered nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. We look at what that means ....... the threat, though it had gone up a notch, remained at a low level. ....... this was, in a way, “analogous to the British system”, where the commanders of Trident nuclear submarines are given letters of last resort, signed by the prime minister, of instructions on how to act if it is believed that the UK has been destroyed by an all-out nuclear attack. ........ Putin’s phrasing was deliberately ambiguous. ...... The move was, he said, designed to scare the west and “remind the world he’s got a deterrent” and that it was a distraction designed to ensure that the west was “talking about it rather than the lack of success they are having in Ukraine”. ......... There was a signal, from the Kremlin itself, on Monday that its statement was primarily a form of high stakes diplomacy. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said the decision came in response to various western warnings there could be “collisions and clashes between Nato and Russia”. He added: “I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister.” ....... simple intimidation – “we can hurt you, and fighting us is dangerous” – and a reminder to the west, which is increasingly arming the Ukrainians, not to go too far. “It could be Russia is planning a brutal escalation in Ukraine and this is a ‘keep out’ warning to the west” .
Stocks fall, ruble dives as Russia sanctions hit world markets . The Russian ruble fell to fresh record lows on Monday while world stocks slid and oil prices jumped, as the West ramped up sanctions against Russia over its Ukraine invasion, with steps including blocking banks from the SWIFT global payments system. .
Russia faces financial meltdown as sanctions slam its economy . President Vladimir Putin was due to hold crisis talks with his top advisers after the ruble crashed to a record low against the US dollar, the Russian central bank more than doubled interest rates to 20%, and the Moscow stock exchange was shuttered for the day. ......... The European subsidiary of Russia's biggest bank was on the brink of collapse as savers rushed to withdraw their deposits. Economists warned that
the Russian economy could shrink by 5%.
........ The ruble lost about 20% of its value to trade at 100 to the dollar ....... The latest barrage of sanctions came Saturday, when the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada said they would expel some Russian banks from SWIFT, a global financial messaging service, and "paralyze" the assets of Russia's central bank. ........... "The ratcheting up of Western sanctions over the weekend has left Russian banks on the edge of crisis" ...... Putin's government has spent the past eight years preparing Russia for tough sanctions by building up a war chest of $630 billion in international reserves including currencies and gold, but at least some of that financial firepower is now frozen and his "fortress" economy is under unprecedented assault. ........... "Our strategy, to put it simply, is to make sure that the Russian economy goes backward as long as President Putin decides to go forward with his invasion of Ukraine" ....... about 40% of Russia's reserves are now off limits to Moscow. ........ "External conditions for the Russian economy have drastically changed," the Russian central bank said. "This is needed to support financial and price stability and protect the savings of citizens from depreciation," the bank added. .......... Russia is a leading exporter of oil and gas but many other sectors of its economy rely on imports. As the value of the ruble falls, they will become much more expensive to buy, pushing up inflation. ......... Putin was due to meet his prime minister, finance minister, the head of the Russian central bank and the head of Russia's top lender Sberbank to discuss "economic matters" ........ "For a long time, Russia has been methodically preparing for the event of possible sanctions, including the most severe sanctions we are currently facing," Peskov said. "So there are response plans, and they are being implemented now as problems arise." ....... the turmoil could lead to a run on Russian banks, as savers try to secure their deposits and hoard cash. ......... no G7 banks will be able to buy Russian rubles, sending the currency into free-fall, with the end resultwe could see a huge inflationary shock unfold inside Russia
....... Sberbank (SBRCY) shares listed in London fell by nearly 70%. Other Russian companies with foreign listings were also hammered. Gas giant Gazprom (GZPFY) dropped 37% in London trading, while shares in internet service provider Yandex (YNDX) were poised to open down 20% in New York. ....... "The [Russian central bank] has this morning raised interest rates to 20% but other measures (e.g. limits on deposit withdrawals) are possible later today. All of this will accelerate Russia's economic downturn — a fall in GDP of [about] 5% now looks likely." .
Western companies head for the exit in Russia as sanctions tighten . BP to exit Rosneft stake worth $25 billion ...... Europe, Canada close airspace, Russia retaliates ........ Energy giant BP, global bank HSBC and the world's biggest aircraft leasing firm AerCap joined a growing list of companies looking to exit Russia on Monday, as Western sanctions tightened the screws on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. ...... and restricting Moscow's ability to use its $630 billion foreign reserves. ........ The rouble plunged as much as 30% to an all-time low, while the central bank doubled its key interest rate to 20%, kept stock markets and derivative markets closed and temporarily banned brokers from selling securities held by foreigners. ....... BP , Russia's biggest foreign investor, abruptly announced at the weekend it was abandoning its 20% stake in state-controlled Rosneft (ROSN.MM) at a cost of up to $25 billion, cutting the British firm's oil and gas reserves in half and production by a third. ........ Large parts of the Russian economy will be a no-go zone for Western banks and financial firms after the decision to cut off some of its banks from SWIFT, a secure messaging system used for trillions of dollars' worth of transactions around the world. ....... Shipping group Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) said it was considering suspending all container bookings in and out of Russia. ........ Russia said it was barring airlines from 36 countries from its airspace, including European nations and Canada which had earlier shut their airspace to Russian aircraft. U.S. officials said Washington was considering a similar move. ......... Leasing firms said they would terminate hundreds of aircraft leases with Russian airlines because of sanctions. Russia has 980 passenger jets in service, with 777 leased and 515 rented from foreign firms .
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