Coronavirus News (92)

Has Nepal’s lockdown just postponed COVID-19? Nepalis have sacrificed a lot to keep the virus under control, but the government has squandered that time ........ If history is a model, Nepal should expect a second or third wave of COVID-19 in future, and some models predict that a tight lockdown could make those outbreaks larger. ........ India’s lockdown has been declared one of the strictest in the world by Oxford University researchers who developed a ‘stringency index’ based on social mobility in more than 140 countries. ........ It is possible infections may be going undetected due to limited testing. However, if that was true infections would have shown up in other ways, like an increase in hospital visits or mortality rates as seen in Indonesia and Brazil where lockdowns were loose. ....... Nepal seems to have averted the first wave of COVID-19. However, without other mitigation measures being ramped up the gains made so far are likely to be undone. .........

“to be contained anywhere, the virus needs to be contained everywhere”.

........ Lockdowns are meant to be a way to buy time to prepare for future surges. ........ increasing testing and contract tracing, building quarantine centres, preparing and protecting health workers, streamlining social payments systems and outreach on hygiene and health are important. But

the Nepal government machinery does not seem more prepared than when the lockdown was imposed on 24 March

.......... we are likely to be in a much more difficult situation if the virus spreads quickly later. With joblessness, stranded migrant workers waiting to return, the socio-economic impact will be even more difficult. ......... Nepalis who have obediently stayed home for 50 days deserve stronger leadership, transparency and proactiveness. ........

Nepal’s PCR testing per capita remains among the lowest in the world at 466 per million.

Vietnam has done 2,600 per million.

Nepal sees biggest daily jump in COVID-19 cases 57 new cases bringing the total to 191. ....... most of those who tested positive were young Nepalis who had recently returned from India .......

39 new cases in and around the border city of Birganj

........ Kapilvastu saw two new cases over the weekend, and both were young men had slipped in through the border after travelling from Mumbai where they worked. ....... Of the 191 tested so far, most have no symptoms and do not need hospitalisation ....... Of those with symptoms, 33 patients have recovered and have gone home.

Unlock the country in phases Announce a carefully calibrated sectoral and geographical easing of the rules ......... Nepal was the first country in the South Asia to clamp a stay-at-home order on 24 March, after only the second confirmed case. It was a bold move, sacrificing the economy to save lives. ........... Nepal has a relatively low number of confirmed cases, and no reported deaths so far. ....... public health experts interviewed for this editorial tell us there is no way of knowing what the real extent of infection is. They are certain that COVID-19 has killed people in Nepal, but they may have died at home because of stigma if they went to hospital, or they succumbed to co-morbidities like tuberculosis or pre-existing pneumonia. .........

there is not enough testing being done.

...... the lockdown was a balance between saving lives and saving livelihoods. But

now after 6 weeks, it is a balance between saving lives, and saving lives

. Whose lives are we going to save? We have to protect the general population from the coronavirus as well as save it from poverty, hunger and disease. ............. Joblessness, indebtedness and bankruptcies are already costing lives with a spike in suicides. There have been measles outbreaks because vaccination campaigns had to be postponed, dialysis patients have died because of lack of treatment, and patients with chronic diseases have run out of life-saving medicines.

More people are dying of causes other than the coronavirus.

..... even industrialised countries face a severe shortage of test kits. ......... There are probably infections among the many thousands of migrant workers who have dispersed across the mountains of western Nepal. ......... Most of those who tested PCR positive have relatively mild symptoms. Hospital records across the country show no discernible spike in deaths from influenza-like causes. ........ experts continue to urge for a carefully calibrated sectoral and geographical easing of the rules. ........

India has extended its lockdown till 18 May, but has divided the country into red, amber and green districts.

........ partially lifting the shutdown for agriculture, industry and the supply chain to ensure food production and spur economic activity. ........ Continuing the lockdown for the sake of lockdown with no solution lessens its impact on the people and the economy and could send us

from the frying pan into the fire

........... Throughout this crisis, the number of children felled by preventable infections has not gone down – in fact there is evidence it may be increasing. ......... Over 30,000 kidney patients in Nepal are at risk because the COVID-19 lockdown is preventing them from travelling to hospitals for regular dialysis. .........

a nationwide quarantine aimed at controlling one disease is causing deaths from other.

........ Since testing everyone is impossible, and continuing with a complete clampdown would be much more damaging, the next best option is a partially lifting the restrictions.

Nepal prepares for economic fallout of pandemic Capital investment in rural infrastructure to create jobs, spur demand and revive economy ......... The country was relatively unscathed during the global financial crisis of 2008, but the global financial meltdown this time is already hitting Nepal’s economy hard, and experts say the impact will be much worse unless the lockdown is accompanied by an economic bailout strategy, and a social safety net for the most vulnerable. ......... “Our economy is being hit simultaneously on multiple fronts in supply, demand and business standstill. So, there is no single policy solution, we must implement monetary, fiscal, and job-led stimulus,” says former Finance Secretary Rameshwar Khanal. “Any delay will mean that the impact on the economy will be much more serious than already seen.” ..........

the unprecedented nature of the pandemic and its devastating impact on two of Nepal’s largest sources of income, remittances and tourism

......... The domino effect of the pandemic lockdown will result in a drastic fall in aggregate demand, the total spending on goods and services. This means businesses will be unable to sell products, reducing future production, in turn leading to workers losing their jobs. Workers are then unable to buy, the supply chain will be disrupted with downward pressure on market demand, resulting in a rise in prices. ...........

do not factor in the possibility of a long-term lockdown or a possible future outbreak in the country.

......... Policy makers have also been unable to produce a concrete action plan because of the uncertainties about the duration of the pandemic globally, how soon and how India, the Gulf and other countries where Nepalis are working will open up, the resumption of international and domestic flights. ......... create jobs by upgrading rural infrastructure which would decentralise expenditure, and provide downstream benefits when the roads, bridges, irrigation schemes are completed .......... scrap pork barrel funds MPs get, disburse the Prime Minister’s Relief Fund for the most vulnerable, stop all expenses on meetings, conferences and junkets, suspend all project that have not started yet, invest in infrastructure, and prioritise agricultural production. ....... the current crisis provides the opportunity to give agriculture the priority it deserved.

Also keeping financially healthy in a lockdown Post pandemic the government must expedite the foreign investment process to show that Nepal is back in business ........ As we face an unprecedented and precarious pandemic that has caused uncertainty to the entire global economy, Nepal’s own response to it will determine at what velocity our economy will hit the ground.

We need to brace ourselves for a very hard landing

........... The effect of this contagion has not just been sector-specific, but has affected the entire value chain. ......... As the lockdown is extended, the state of the economy will progressively deteriorate. ....... this is not the time for bottom line expectations but to ensure top line sustainability. ........... Never has private equity impact funds been more relevant than now. Patient risk capital with a hand holding mechanism that provides diffusion of knowledge along with the much needed capital is what private equity has been doing in Nepal for the past five years.

Common sense is uncommon in fighting COVID-19 Communication is the first line of defence against a communicable disease ......... The whole world is now using vocabulary that we assume everyone, everywhere, will understand in the same way: pandemic, lockdown, self-isolation, quarantine, flatten the curve, exponential spread, COVID-19. In a country with low adult literacy rate, really poor health infrastructure, Nepalis need to be careful with these terms and how we explain it to the public. ........... Nepalis have lived through an armed conflict, became a republic, written a new constitution, lived through an earthquake and Indian economic blockade – all within a generation. .........

Policemen do not need to beat people walking on the streets, they need to be able to stop them explain what a lockdown is, and the costs and benefits of compliance to society.

........ Lockdowns are cruel, they bring societal inequities to the surface. Just as the virus targets the vulnerable, the measure used to control it by enforcing a lockdown also disproportionately impact on the poor, elderly or those far from home. In a situation where people do not trust the government and black marketers are politically protected, we cannot blame a public that is skeptical of government moves.

Lockdown Fallout The prolonged shutdown forces us to plan for new crises that are sure to manifest themselves in the near future — food shortages, economic hardship, social unrest and political fallout. .......... The virus and its response have exposed and exacerbated existing socio-economic inequities in Nepali society, exclusion and injustice. ........

‘Social distancing is a privilege. It means you live in a house large enough to practise it. Hand washing is a privilege too. It means you have access to running water. Hand sanitisers are a privilege. It means you have money to buy them. Lockdowns are a privilege. It means you can afford to be at home. A disease spread by the rich as they flew around the globe will now kill millions of the poor.’

................ it is those who depend on day-to-day earnings who need urgent assistance. .......... the challenge of quickly finding a mechanism to rescue the most vulnerable with cash grants if necessary. ....... It is now the urban poor in the Global South where new COVID-19 infection clusters will hit hardest, exposing pre-existing disparities in access to medical care and food. ..........

Many Nepali workers are stranded in Malaysia, the Gulf, or in Indian cities

....... One-third of the world’s population is in lockdown, the global economy is shattered, and even though the virus afflicts rich and poor alike, it is the poorest in the poor countries who are most vulnerable to the economic aftershocks of the pandemic. .........

It feels like a nightmare, and it is hard to remember the pre-Corona days when all we had to worry about was climate change.

Crossborder virus and Nepali migrant workers The COVID-19 epidemic has hit countries where millions of Nepalis work ........ The country with the second-largest burden of disease outside China is South Korea where there are about 40,000 Nepali workers. Of the 14 new cases of COVID-19 detected in the UAE this week, two were Nepalis. There are about 200,000 Nepali workers in the Emirates. ........... Qatar also has about 400,000 Nepali workers, and the country has now temporarily banned workers from Nepal and other countries. Qatar has so far detected 15 infected individuals. Cases have also been diagnosed in other West Asian countries with sizeable Nepali working populations: Bahrain (109), Kuwait (65), Oman (18) and Saudi Arabia (15)........ Some years, up to 1,000 Nepali workers in the Gulf and Malaysia have died, and this grim statistic could see an increase if the epidemic spreads. .........

‘Even foreigners living here illegally or without visas can get a free test without any questions,’ reads a Public Service Announcement by the South Korean government.

........... The economic impact of COVID-19 is also felt back home, where the new batch of workers who completed the rigorous selection process for employment in Korea through the EPS have been asked to put off their departure until further notice. The same now applies for workers going to Qatar. ............

Workers talk of a visible slowdown in otherwise bustling Dubai.

Back to the future of farming In the post-pandemic era, the economy must be recalibrated to give agriculture the priority it deserved, but never got ......... Across Nepal, fields and terraces are barren or are reverting to jungle. The elderly are left managing the farm, while others move to the roadhead for schooling, or living off remittance. In the Tarai, once Nepal’s grain basket, agricultural activity is affected by urbanisation, salination and depletion of ground water. ....... There is a surplus of milk and vegetables right now ........ It is not enough, of course, to ask citizens to go back to the land. Farming has to be made attractive and profitable as a profession. ........ Young people who remain on the farm are seen by society as failures in life. This attitude needs to change. ...... The coronavirus pandemic provides Nepal with an opportunity to bring back agriculture as a pillar of the economy, providing employment and food security for the people and self-sufficiency to the nation. Nepal can create jobs in the service industry and manufacturing, but these will not be enough for the volume of returnees from Gulf, Malaysia and India due to the global economic downturn.