Saturday, April 04, 2020

Coronavirus News (28)

Stretching the International Order to Its Breaking Point The greatest error that geopolitical analysts can make may be believing that the crisis will be over in three to four months. ........ COVID-19 could be with us in one way or another until a vaccine comes on the market or herd immunity is achieved—either of which could take 12 to 18 months ....... Even after a vaccine is available, life will not go back to normal. COVID-19 was not a black swan and will not be the last pandemic. A nervous world will be permanently changed. ........ American policy makers also underestimated the financial crisis of 2007–09, when they opted to let Lehman Brothers fail in September 2008 on the mistaken assumption that the decision would not trigger the collapse of other companies. European officials thought that the crisis had been made in the United States and would not affect global financial markets, and dismissed any concern that the euro zone may have its own vulnerabilities. ........

in a long crisis, countries will emerge profoundly changed. No one knows how exactly

....... The recession will look more like an L or W shape than a V. ..... COVID-19 could end globalization as we know it, particularly if the pandemic is prolonged. ....... “an assault on globalization” from multiple sources—the financial crisis, U.S.-China competition, climate-change activists pushing for people to buy local. COVID-19 piles on the pressure. Countries will be wary of outsourcing crucial medical supplies and pharmaceuticals to other countries. Supply chains more generally will be disrupted and will be hard to repair. .........

leaders in Israel have empowered Shin Bet, the country’s internal security service, to use cellphone location data to track Israeli citizens during the outbreak.

...... A long crisis will not discriminate and will damage all of the world’s power and regions ......... COVID-19 is likely to be a strategic setback for China, particularly in its efforts to make inroads into Europe and other democracies. ...... The CCP is now trying to limit the damage of its errors by providing assistance to other countries in the form of face masks, respirators, and other supplies. Many see this aid as an act of confidence, but it might be evidence that the regime feels vulnerable and fragile. ........ If the crisis continues for 12 to 18 months, the virus will likely return to China, with all of the risks that poses for the regime. ...... The virus has decimated parts of the Iranian elite and spread from there to ravage much of the region. The Iranian regime appears incredibly fragile, but if the government falls, no one knows what comes next, given the lack of any organized opposition within the country. ...... After a long crisis, much of the Middle East will consist of zombie governments that are widely perceived as ineffective. ......... the crisis will be “transformative.” ........ COVID-19 is a disaster for Americans. ...... President Trump is singularly ill-equipped to handle the pandemic. .......... In a long crisis, many people will die needlessly and the financial cost will be in the many trillions of dollars. The world has lost whatever confidence remained in the ability of Trump’s America to take charge. ....... Leaders have watched in horror as the administration focused the bulk of its diplomatic efforts on renaming the virus. If Trump is reelected—and his polling numbers suggest he has benefited politically from the pandemic so far—substantial international cooperation is unlikely after the crisis ends and the recovery begins. Each country will go its own way. .....

the United States is seen as a warning—an example, along with Brazil, of how a populist government is incapable of handling this crisis.

........ the only countries who have emerged from this crisis with their credibility intact so far are Asian democracies like South Korea and Taiwan. Germany is showing similar signs of competency, particularly in testing. .......

in 2019 the WHO published a plan to respond to a pandemic. Not a single major country followed the guidance.

...... The last global pandemic—the Spanish influenza of 1918–19—is not generally regarded as a driver of domestic and international politics over the 1920s and ’30s, likely because the world was already broken by World War I and less integrated than it is now.

Never before has a single event upended everyone’s lives simultaneously and so suddenly.



Why these 8 Republican governors are holding out on statewide stay-at-home orders In doing so, they've collectively ignored the stay-at-home pleas of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, who said in a CNN interview: "If you look at what's going on in this country, I just don't understand why we're not doing that." ......

Absent a nationwide order, which President Donald Trump once again on Friday declined to give

....... "States that we are talking about are not in jeopardy." ....... It's not as though the novel coronavirus hasn't touched each of their states in some way. ....... In South Dakota, a Republican state lawmaker was among the first in the state to test positive, followed soon after by his wife, brother and sister-in-law. His 51-year-old niece has died of Covid-19, family members told reporters, with several others experiencing symptoms. ...... "The people themselves are primarily responsible for their safety." She also pointed to the state and national constitutions that "prevent us from taking draconian measures much like the Chinese government has done." ....... In Iowa on Friday, a statewide board of medicine voted unanimously to recommend a so-called shelter-in-place order to limit the movements of residents to essential work and travel. ....... She pushed back on Fauci's remark that questioned why all states have not issued stay-at-home orders. .... "I would say that maybe he doesn't have all the information," Reynolds told reporters. "You can't just look at a map and assume no action has been taken." ....... He pointed to Dr. James Lawler, co-director of the University of Nebraska Medical Center's Global Center for Health Security, who said people should spend more time heeding the warnings of social distancing and handwashing, rather than focusing on semantics of a statewide order. ........ if Nebraskans do "what we've already implemented and we do it well, I think we'll get much more bang for our buck than we would from going to a much more draconian posture." .......

Aides to several of the Republican governors said the only persuasion that was likely to move their positions was specific guidance from the President.

...... DeSantis said it was the President's alarm -- not warnings health officials had been making for weeks -- that finally persuaded him.



A German Exception? Why the Country’s Coronavirus Death Rate Is Low The pandemic has hit Germany hard, with more than 92,000 people infected. But the percentage of fatal cases has been remarkably low compared to those in many neighboring countries. ...... They take a blood test, looking for signs that a patient is about to go into a steep decline. They might suggest hospitalization, even to a patient who has only mild symptoms; the chances of surviving that decline are vastly improved by being in a hospital when it begins. ...... “There is this tipping point at the end of the first week,” said Prof. Hans-Georg Kräusslich, the head of virology at University Hospital in Heidelberg, one of Germany’s leading research hospitals. “If you are a person whose lungs might fail, that’s when you will start deteriorating.” ....... with 1,295 deaths, Germany’s fatality rate stood at 1.4 percent, compared with 12 percent in Italy, around 10 percent in Spain, France and Britain, 4 percent in China and 2.5 percent in the United States. Even South Korea, a model of flattening the curve, has a higher fatality rate, 1.7 percent. ........

“There has been talk of a German anomaly”

..... “It started as an epidemic of skiers” ...... Germany has been testing far more people than most nations. That means it catches more people with few or no symptoms, increasing the number of known cases, but not the number of fatalities. ...... early and widespread testing and treatment, plenty of intensive care beds and a trusted government whose social distancing guidelines are widely observed. ...... By the time Germany recorded its first case of Covid-19 in February, laboratories across the country had built up a stock of test kits. ...... By now, Germany is conducting around 350,000 coronavirus tests a week, far more than any other European country. ......

One key to ensuring broad-based testing is that patients pay nothing for it,

...... “A young person with no health insurance and an itchy throat is unlikely to go to the doctor and therefore risks infecting more people”.......... In most countries, including the United States, testing is largely limited to the sickest patients .... “We have so much capacity now we are accepting patients from Italy, Spain and France” ....... Beyond mass testing and the preparedness of the health care system, many also see Chancellor Angela Merkel’s leadership as one reason the fatality rate has been kept low. .....

Ms. Merkel has communicated clearly, calmly and regularly throughout the crisis

....... The chancellor’s approval ratings have soared. ....“Maybe our biggest strength in Germany,” said Professor Kräusslich, “is the rational decision-making at the highest level of government combined with the trust the government enjoys in the population.”

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo says state not ready for "high point," as coronavirus death toll rises New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said Saturday that more than 3,500 people in the state have died due to the coronavirus. More than 113,000 COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in the state, which is the U.S. epicenter of the outbreak. ...... New York has not yet reached its expected peak in the number of cases. "We're not at the apex," Cuomo said, adding that the state is "not yet ready for the high point."

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