Tuesday, January 07, 2020

Excellent Opportunity To Not Retaliate

Iran had to do something and it did. But there are no casualties. And this is an excellent opening for the US to not retaliate.

The other powers that are actively trying to help de-escalate should be allowed to play their roles.

This thing has to be steered to dialogue.

Trump replaced NAFTA with something that looks and smells like NAFTA. Perhaps Trump would like to cut a nuclear deal with Iran.

Restraint Would Be A Good Idea
Trump-Khameini Tit-Tat: This Is Not Looking Good
The Strong Case For No War
Suleimani Episode: Bizarre Turn Of Events
Trump's Suleimani Move: Politically Bad
Qassem Suleimani: Dialogue Beats Escalation (2)
Qassem Suleimani: Dialogue Beats Escalation



The Nightmare Stage of Trump’s Rule Is Here Unstable and impeached, the president pushes the U.S. toward war with Iran. ........ NATO has suspended its mission training Iraqi forces to fight ISIS. Iraq’s Parliament has voted to expel American troops — a longtime Iranian objective. (On Monday, U.S. forces sent a letter saying they were withdrawing from Iraq in response, only to then claim that it was a draft released in error.) On Sunday, Iran said it will no longer be bound by the remaining restrictions on its nuclear program in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the deal that Trump abandoned in 2018. Trump has been threatening to commit war crimes by destroying Iran’s cultural sites and tried to use Twitter to notify Congress of his intention to respond to any Iranian reprisals with military escalation. ...... The administration has said that the killing of Suleimani was justified by an imminent threat to American lives, but there is no reason to believe this......... Defense officials who might have stood up to Trump have all left the administration. ....... James Mattis, Trump’s former secretary of defense, instructed his subordinates not to provide the president with options for a military showdown with Iran. ........ presented Trump with the possibility of killing Suleimani as the “most extreme” option on a menu of choices, and were “flabbergasted” when he picked it. ........ “His maximum pressure policy has failed,” Nasr said of Trump. “He has only produced a more dangerous Iran.” ....... ISIS benefits from the breach between Iraq and America. “ISIS suicide and vehicle bombings have nearly stopped entirely,” said Brett McGurk, who until 2018 was special presidential envoy to the coalition fighting ISIS. “Only a few years ago, there were 50 per month, killing scores of Iraqis. That’s because of what we have done and continue to do. These networks will regenerate rapidly if we are forced to leave, and they will again turn their attention on the West.” ....

an establishment that has too often failed to treat him as a walking national emergency. Now the nightmare phase of the Trump presidency is here. The biggest surprise is that it took so long.



GOP Rep. Michael Waltz Says Iranian Missile Attack Could Be Sign of ‘Future De-Escalation’ “If they are hitting infrastructure, that could be a signal that while they had to respond, they did so in a way that would lead to some type of future de-escalation.”

Opinion: How inevitable is war with Iran? war with Iran is not to the president’s advantage. .... Trump has only one strategic imperative in 2020, and that’s vindication in an impeachment trial and reelection. A messy, all-out — and if the past is any guide unwinnable — war that results in skyrocketing oil prices, a meltdown in financial markets, economic dislocation and a surge in U.S. deaths at Iranian hands will not help him at the ballot box. ......

Like Trump, Khamenei in Tehran wants to stay in power. He’s a crafty leader committed to expanding Iran’s regional reach, but his main objective is survival of the Islamic Republic and regime maintenance.

...... The drone attack on the second most powerful man in Iran and in a third country was an act untethered from any coherent, long-term strategy. ..... The killing has not made Americans more secure or limited Iran’s regional influence. What it has done is cripple the U.S.-Iraqi relationship, strengthen Iran’s power in the region and undermine the fight against Islamic State.

Oil prices soar after Iran attacks airbases housing US troops in Iraq Iran used ballistic missiles from inside Iraq, indicating a significant escalation. ..... A spike in oil prices could deal a blow to the world economy, which is already struggling from weak manufacturing activity. Dow (INDU) futures tumbled more than 300 points, or 1.2%, late Wednesday.

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