Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Indian Citizenship Bill Protests: The Distrust Is Wide And Deep

Has India's Narendra Modi gone too far with controversial new citizenship law? Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Indian government has stripped the country's only Muslim-majority state of autonomy and rolled out a citizenship check in the northeastern state of Assam that effectively left nearly 2 million people stateless, many of them Muslims. ........ And when Modi backed the passage of a controversial new citizenship law, which prioritizes immigrants from three Muslim-majority countries of virtually every religious stripe over Islam, protests broke out across India. ........ To Modi's critics, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) -- which fast-tracks applications for immigrants, including Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis and Christians who arrived in India before 2015 -- has become

the most brazen example of a Hindu nationalist agenda aimed at marginalizing Indian Muslims

. ...... Since the law passed through both houses of Parliament last week, demonstrations have swept university campuses in at least nine states. Protesters have taken to the streets across Assam and Tripura over fears that large numbers of Hindus, who migrated to the region in the past few decades, will now be able to get their citizenship fast-tracked. Many there fear it will dramatically recast the religious and ethnic makeup of the northeastern states -- home to 200 distinct indigenous groups. .......

critics are worried it might pave the way for nationwide citizenship tests, stripping the rights of Muslims who have lived in India for generations but cannot prove their family's lineage -- turning countless people stateless.

........ Home Minister Amit Shah has repeatedly said that the government will roll out a national citizenship registry. ...... Modi tried to reassure the public on Monday, saying on Twitter that the new law "does not affect any citizen of India of any religion." And that "no Indian has anything to worry" about....... But when a citizenship registry took place in Assam earlier this year it left 1.9 million people off a list of Indian citizens. The government said at the time that no one would be declared a foreigner if they are not on the list, but that failed to temper concerns........ What is at stake is "the future of liberal democracy in India," Vaishnav said. "And it looks like a side, which has been asleep or at least silent, has really woken up and made sure that their voices are being heard." ...... The protests are sure to have caught Modi -- who has developed a reputation for being a Teflon premier -- somewhat off guard. ..... As protests roiled the country over the weekend, the government shut down the internet in several affected states in a bid to maintain law and order........ in spite of mounting grievances, analysts think it is unlikely that the BJP will scrap the law. "Modi still remains, head and shoulders, the most popular politician in India" ......

India lacks a foreplan for what comes next. Its detention centers do not have the capacity needed to house "millions of people that could potentially be caught up," if a nationwide citizenship check is rolled out

...... there appears to be no existing talks with neighboring countries, like Bangladesh, on the issue of deportation ....... "Are you going to see large numbers of Muslims detained or lose their citizenship? It is a game of wait and see."



India is fundamentally a secular, diverse country. Modi spent years cultivating the image of a Vikash Purush ("Development Man") before he ran for Prime Minister in 2014. His famous slogan is, Sab Ka Saath Sab Ka Vikas ("Development For All").

India is the largest remittance economy in the world, and it draws sustenance from the Gulf countries only a few hours away. And, of course, India is the second largest Muslim country in the world by population. At some level, partition was never possible, and it never happened.

Modi came in promising double-digit growth rates, but his second term has been marked by one anti-Muslim step after another. It might be okay to turn Kashmir into just another Indian state, but turning Kashmir into an open-air prison is a no-no. Indians are so into free speech, they argue when they are out shopping for vegetables. They haggle over price.

Before the amended citizenship bill came along, already close to two million Muslims in Assam had been declared stateless. So the new bill is making people feel like that number will go from two million to 20 million. That will make Syria look like the Bahamas. Xi with his Xinjiang will have nothing on Modi. Assurances to the contrary are falling on deaf ears.

I think a fundamental political realignment is on its way. And Maharashtra shows the way. Recently the Shiv Sena ditched Modi's BJP, and the Shiv Sena has been the BJP's staunchest ally over the decades. The pendulum has started to swing in the other direction. At this rate the next election slated for 2024 might see the BJP emerge as the largest but a minority party, with the second-largest, the Congress, propping the leader of a smaller party for Prime Minister. That might as well be Mamata Banerjee. That could be Prashant Kishor. The kingmaker should become king.

Too much political organizing, too much efficiency, Amit Shah style, can also be a bad thing if it stifles debate. It can lead to democratic erosion. The famously chaotic Congress party might be in luck now.

The Vikash Purush is now being seen as the Social Vinash Purush, a destructive force. Dominoes will start to fall much before 2024. Maharashtra might be the first of many to come. This could be Modi's last term, and I don't see Amit Shah ever becoming Prime Minister.

Prashant Kishor should take his party, the JD(U), to at least six states. He has the option to become the Indian Macron.

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NRC demonetisation of citizenship, says Prashant Kishor A day after he said Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is against a nationwide NRC, senior JD (U) leader Prashant Kishor on Sunday said the idea of a nationwide NRC is equivalent to “demonetisation of citizenship” which is “invalid” until proved. The state BJP responded by saying NRC was its “future agenda” and there was no need for alliance partner JD (U) to engage in any propaganda over it. ........... The JD(U) leader, who had criticised his party for supporting the Citizenship Amendment Bill in Parliament, met Nitish on Sunday to sort out differences and came out with the party’s new stand — “NRC with CAB is dangerous and discriminatory”.

Sharad Pawar: Country needs alternative to BJP that stays in India Responding to a query of reporters in Nagpur on whether an anti-BJP coalition was in the making at the national level, the NCP president said, "There are some indications that anti-BJP sentiments are on the rise in some parts of the country." ...... Rahul Gandhi on Tuesday said he had met South Korea Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon during a visit to the country. His visit to South Korea came amid widespread protests over the amended citizenship law in various parts of India. ....... “It was expected that the unrest would remain confined to certain states.” ........ He said that contrary to the BJP’s expectation that the new law would be welcomed in certain states, it was being opposed in the party-ruled Assam too.

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Nitish Kumar says no to Prashant Kishor's offer to resign Prashant Kishor has differences with Nitish Kumar supporting CAA. JD(U) Vice-President Prashant Kishore had also expressed his displeasure through a tweet and appealed to Nitish Kumar to not support the Citizenship Amendment Bill in the Rajya Sabha. But the JD(U) supported the Bill in both Houses of Parliament....... On Wednesday, Kishor had tweeted the legislation could turn into a lethal combo (with NRC) to systematically discriminate and even prosecute people based on religion.

Back With a Bang? Crafted by Prashant Kishor, How a Single Strategy Helped Mamata Regain Ground Ahead of Bypoll Test Since Kishor launched 'Didi Ke Bolo' on July 29, the TMC has not only managed to recapture several municipalities that had shifted to the BJP but also win the confidence of strong ground-level leaders to rejoin the party........ the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made massive gains in West Bengal, winning 18 of the state's 42 Lok Sabha seats, up from just two in 2014. After that, her party lost seven municipalities to the BJP, as a majority of them switched over to the saffron outfit....... While the TMC was on the back foot, Banerjee, the West Bengal chief minister, had secretly picked political strategist Prashant Kishor on June 6 to get the party on track ....... After 54 days of Kishor's appointment, the outreach programme Didi Ke Bolo (Tell Didi) was launched on July 29, and in a span of nearly 180 days the TMC has not only managed to recapture all the seven municipalities which went to the BJP (due to a switchover) but also win the confidence of strong ground level leaders to rejoin the TMC........ His first major campaign was in 2011 when he secured the victory of Narendra Modi in Gujarat for a third term as chief minister. The 42-year-old trained in public health and worked with the United Nations for several years before entering the Indian political scene.......... He came under the spotlight when he helped Modi and the BJP win the 2014 general elections with innovative canvassing techniques: the chai pe charcha (talks over tea) campaign, 3D rallies, conclaves and social media programmes. Since then, Kishor has aided in electing to power JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Congress's Amarinder Singh in Punjab and the YSRCP's YS Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh. ........ As per the TMC’s internal assessment, more than 2,000 strong leaders – who actually have the capability to turn the tables – have come back to the Trinamool in the last six months. Most of them are booth leaders, having a great connect at the grassroots level.......... On November 7, Mamata Banerjee personally assessed the impact of Prashant Kishor’s ‘Didi Ke Bolo’ campaign in Bengal. The review meeting was held at Trinamool Bhawan in North Panchanna Gram where all the party leaders including MLAs, MPs and district presidents were asked to be present. The campaign provides a platform to the people to directly lodge complaints with the chief minister. Anyone can reach out to her by calling ‘9137091370’ or by logging onto www.didikebolbo.com, with their suggestions and problems....... more than 30 lakh people have made calls, expressing their suggestions and grievances. Banerjee was impressed with the impact on the ground level...... More than 250 party workers are engaged round the clock not only to ensure each and every grievance/suggestion reaches the chief minister but also list them in various trackers and buckets for swift resolution. As suggested by Kishor, there are separate buckets for all the government schemes for people and multiple trackers for each to keep an eye on how many issues have been resolved and the time taken.



2024: Possible Lok Sabha Composition

BJP: 150

Anti-BJP Coalition (ABC):
Congress: 60
JD (U): 50 (25 in Bihar, 25 outside Bihar)
Trianmool Congress: 40
Shiv Sena: 20
LJP (Paswan): 6
RJD: 10
AIADMK: 20
DMK: 15
YSR Congress: 20
BJD: 20
BSP: 30
SP: 30
NCP: 10
CPI (M): 10
TRS: 10
TDP: 5
AAP: 4
Total: 360
Others: 33


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