Friday, October 04, 2019

Imran's Peace Gamble In Afghanistan



The Taliban of Afghanistan remind me of the Maoists of Nepal. At their peak right before they entered the peace process, the Maoists held sway over 80% of the territory in Nepal. That does not mean they were ruling 80% of the country. But they had managed to drive out the state's presence in 80% of the country, which was meager in the first place. Right before the peace process the Maoists and the Nepal Army were at war. And a ceasefire was not an option. Because the seven political parties in Nepal were not in power. The king was.

And so the Maoists needed to declare a unilateral ceasefire. They had to then join an alliance with the political parties, who they had been targeting for years. Targeting in the Maoist language means killing.

So you declare a unilateral ceasefire with the Nepal Army who, by the way, never officially reciprocated. Then they form an alliance with the political parties. Together you wage a street movement in the capital city to drive the king out.

The six parties come to power. Then you come to power after you agree to put your army into cantonments. And you integrate the two armies and become a political party.

Fairly complex.

But I believe that is the formula also for Afghanistan.

Imran Khan is best positioned to deliver. I don't believe Donald Trump or Mike Pompeo understand the ground situation in Afghanistan. Terrorist bad, democracy good kind of language is not going to make headway. That is as much nuance as Bernie's Medicare For All.

The Taliban are a fighting force. And those fighters drawing salaries as soldiers in the Afghan Army would be a good way to get them out of the political equation. The nonfighters have to form a political party and be willing to contest elections. The elections could be for a constituent assembly to write a constitution for Afghanistan. Unless they agree to accept what is already in place. They might even emerge the largest party. If they do, they get to come to power. Two Maoists became Prime Ministers in Nepal. Why not?

I believe this is the way out.

Pakistan can not prosper unless there is peace in the neighborhood. The only person both the Taliban and the Afghan president are willing to talk to is Imran. The Americans just want to get the hell out. They just want reassurance that all hell will not break loose when they leave. A negotiated peace settlement will deliver that.

Imran Khan does not really need Donald Trump's involvement. Trump could be part of the final step in the process when Imran might be in a position to say, you can safely leave now.

In Nepal, there was this critical juncture right before the six parties (was it six or seven, I forget) and the Maoists formed an alliance. Some Maoists blew up a bus. That would have been an excellent reason for the six parties to walk away. But that walking away would have been a mistake. You have to understand, not all Maoists were happy. Many were feeling betrayed by their leadership. They were supposed to defeat the parties, not form an alliance with them. But walking away at that juncture would have been a bad idea.

Imran should tackle Afghanistan, then Kashmir, then Iran. Somewhere along the way, he should get the Nobel, but Greta first.

I was thinking perhaps Imran can not make moves between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But now I think he is in a very good position to do so. I think the Saudis overestimate the American willingness and ability to inflict military pain on Iran. The Americans primarily want to sell military hardware. They are not interested in actual war. If the Saudis want peace, they have to engage in direct talks with Iran, and perhaps Imran can mediate. Co-existence is the idea. Since finishing each other off is not an option.



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