Sunday, September 15, 2019

The Asymmetry Between Beijing And Hong Kong Is On Hong Kong's Side

Beijing is over a billion people. Hong Kong is not even 10 million. Beijing has an army that could challenge the United States. The Hong Kong protestors only have gas masks and mobile phones. Beijing has unlimited billions it could put towards propaganda efforts and policing inside China. And it does spend a lot on policing and censoring. But still this is a no win situation for Beijing. It is like Beijing is IBM in 1979, and Hong Kong is Apple, or Beijing is Microsoft in 1999 and Hong Kong is Google. It is like Beijing is the PC and Hong Kong is the smartphone. Hong Kong taunts, and Beijing can only issue empty threats.

Beijing tried to imitate Hong Kong. It thought it created Shanghai. They got the hardware right: the roads, the bridges, the skyscrapers, the city lights at night time. But the software is missing. Shanghai is like an iPhone without Google Maps. For Shanghai to become Hong Kong, you need free speech, you need cultural diversity, you need rule of law, not rule of communist party, you need universal suffrage.

China depends on Hong Kong for funds. FDI enters China through Hong Kong. Hong Kong has the upper hand.

IBM did come around to making the PC. Microsoft did try to catch up with Bing. Apple simply let Google Maps to come rule the iPhone. Beijing has no choice but to let Hong Kong lead the way for all of China on political reforms. Or the dam will simply break. The dam could break before the New Year.

Hong Kong protestors should do their best to (1) not engage in damage of property and (2) not engage in violence. That kind of internal discipline will send a strong message to the world. Then the slightest acts of violence by the Hong Kong police will be major blows to Beijing. This is about claiming moral authority. It is powerful. Hong Kong keeps the upper hand that way.

2019 in Asia does not have to be like 1989 in Russia. Beijing should make the smart choice and bend. Agree to the five demands and keep one country, two systems intact. Before it is too late.



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The new battle in Hong Kong isn’t on the streets; it’s in the apps Activists are using Airdrop, livestreams, and innovative maps to keep their protest alive. But the authorities have plenty of tech of their own. ............. Hong Kong is famous for its souk-like electronics malls, and it’s blanketed with high-speed internet. So when protests broke out in June over plans to implement a controversial extradition law—which would see Hong Kongers accused of crimes turned over to mainland China’s notoriously opaque justice system—it was natural that many people turned to online services for more information and guidance............. Everything from supplies of food and water to press conferences are put together in the chat app Telegram ......... LIHKG, a Reddit-like forum that is limited to local ISPs, provides a sandbox of ideas where a network of anonymous citizens can exchange memes, protest schedules, and tactics. Online polls often dictate the location of the next traffic-disrupting flash mob. .......... a small army of journalists and activists have been live-streaming everything from major marches to minor spats with police. The raw videos tap into local media habits—

many people leave live streams playing in the background while they cook dinner or hang out with friends—and help create a sense of solidarity and belonging, even among those who are not on the streets themselves

............ Supply chain: Thanks to messages on Telegram and information sent via AirDrop, protesters are able to get supplies to the front lines through chaotic scenes. ........ “We disregard quality and framing, but we’re in the middle of the protesters and even the police, and people get really immersed in the scene,” she says. “The audience doesn’t want well-packaged shots—they want to feel what it’s like to be on the ground, in the most dangerous situation.” ........

“A lot of people have told me it was like a VR experience of getting beaten.”

.......... (“No one knew where the police were or how they could get to an escape route,” he told me. “So our team began planning to map out the next big rally the following week.”)......... Now Orca and his team publish dozens of maps during large demonstrations, updating positions with colors to show the location of police, “thugs,” and protesters, plus icons to signify first aid, rest, and supply stations. All of this is put together by on-the-ground volunteers who draw the information out on a blank map on their iPads, and send it to an “integrator” who compares the data with news from live streams and television stations before putting it all together and sending it out over Telegram or Apple’s AirDrop file transfer service. During one rally, an estimated 600,000 people downloaded maps put out by Orca’s team, just one of three mapping services created during the protests. ........... Then, three weeks after she watched the train station attack, Alice decided her contributions needed to become more direct. During one of the most violent weekends so far, she joined the crowd, carrying a rucksack filled with supplies: bandages, water, snacks, and filters for gas masks. When she saw a call on Telegram, she rushed forward toward police lines for the first time, opened her bag to those in need, and quickly retreated, checking Orca’s maps to avoid running into police......... She was dressed in what has become the uniform among demonstrators: black from head to toe, her face obscured by a black surgical mask and a black baseball cap.............

"This moment is our last chance to fight for Hong Kong, or the next generation won’t even know what privacy is."

........... “In the past few months people have educated themselves incredibly quickly on end-to-end encryption, only buying single-use transit cards, and the dangers of widespread surveillance” ......... many types of data Hong Kong’s telecommunications companies do not consider to be personal and protected, including a user’s geolocation and IP addresses, as well as the information on websites visited. This interpretation, which was made privately by the companies themselves and has not been challenged in court, means that police do not need a warrant to request, say, a list of subscribers who were in a certain place at a certain time........... Information collected by Hong Kong authorities could also be handed over to China, Tsui added, since there is no formal agreement defining what can and cannot be shared............. Alice does not even know the real names of several friends she’s made at the protests. When they message on Telegram, they use their aliases—all English pseudonyms. Even though they are anonymous, anyone who is arrested is cut out of the group for fear that police could compromise their phones............. With no end in sight, Lam has considered invoking emergency powers, according to local media. One of her first targets would likely be the apps that protesters use to organize. The mere suggestion was so divisive that members of Lam’s cabinet warned her against the move, and the Hong Kong Internet Service Providers Association declared that “any such restrictions, however slight originally, would start the end of the open Internet of Hong Kong.”..........

The Chinese government’s concern is that the internet is also the most likely way the Hong Kong protests could spread to the rest of the country.

........ After Lam’s announcement that she would withdraw the extradition bill, posts on Chinese social media wondered why those elsewhere in China face jail time for even a hint of dissent. ......... amid attempts by the Chinese government to deter protesters by releasing viral clips on Twitter threatening a military crackdown, there is little sign Hong Kongers are cowed. Alice feels that their collective efforts are leveling the playing field between the government and demonstrators. ......... “The government uses an old playbook, but we have created whole new ways of resisting. And if we didn’t stand up and [we] let Hong Kong become just another Chinese city, all that creativity would be snuffed out.”

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