I am trying to understand what might be going on.
Xi Jinping is the only one who can decide. But he is acting above the fray. And the way the system is designed, people who report to him are trying their best to make him look like the tough guy he is supposed to be.
That works if all you have to do is wait. In a few weeks, the whole thing will fizzle out.
Well, it has been more than a few months, and the whole thing is only gathering more momentum.
The political system in China is not designed to respond to what has been happening in Hong Kong. What has been happening is under the full glare of global media, old and social. The whole thing is being webcast live. The Chinese communists don't know how to respond.
Hong Kong is a bigger threat than Donald Trump and the trade war. It is like Beijing is having to fight two wars at once, neither of which is military. A military war would be relatively easy. This is a phantom war.
The system is inflexible. Formally withdraw the extradition bill and the whole thing might go away. But they can't even do that. The system is that inflexible. It will break, but it will not bend. The folks in Beijing are naive in thinking the breaking point is far. Objects in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear.
How might this whole thing play out?
One fine morning the protesters wake up and realize they don't want to do this anymore. This is what Beijing is counting on. This is the least likely scenario.
The other extreme is Beijing sends in troops. This would be the stupidest move on their part. That will end communist rule inside China, guaranteed. The CCP will not celebrate a new year.
The moderate scenario is where Beijing starts by accepting the key demand. Or it even accepts all five demands and claims it a victory for one country, two systems. But this makes too much sense. If they were to do this, they would have done it already. The political system in China runs like a rhinoceros. It does not know zigzag.
I feel like Beijing might have already entered a no-win phase in this situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Although I can't be too sure. And I have not been reading enough on the details.
We will know when the dam starts to break. It might be in the form of one arrest too many, one beating too many by the Hong Kong police. Or support protests in the other cities of the world. Or the protesters managing a complete shutdown of everything in Hong Kong, the airport, the stock exchange, everything.
While Beijing moves towards October 1 like an ostrich.
Xi Jinping is the only one who can decide. But he is acting above the fray. And the way the system is designed, people who report to him are trying their best to make him look like the tough guy he is supposed to be.
That works if all you have to do is wait. In a few weeks, the whole thing will fizzle out.
Well, it has been more than a few months, and the whole thing is only gathering more momentum.
The political system in China is not designed to respond to what has been happening in Hong Kong. What has been happening is under the full glare of global media, old and social. The whole thing is being webcast live. The Chinese communists don't know how to respond.
Hong Kong is a bigger threat than Donald Trump and the trade war. It is like Beijing is having to fight two wars at once, neither of which is military. A military war would be relatively easy. This is a phantom war.
The system is inflexible. Formally withdraw the extradition bill and the whole thing might go away. But they can't even do that. The system is that inflexible. It will break, but it will not bend. The folks in Beijing are naive in thinking the breaking point is far. Objects in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear.
How might this whole thing play out?
One fine morning the protesters wake up and realize they don't want to do this anymore. This is what Beijing is counting on. This is the least likely scenario.
The other extreme is Beijing sends in troops. This would be the stupidest move on their part. That will end communist rule inside China, guaranteed. The CCP will not celebrate a new year.
The moderate scenario is where Beijing starts by accepting the key demand. Or it even accepts all five demands and claims it a victory for one country, two systems. But this makes too much sense. If they were to do this, they would have done it already. The political system in China runs like a rhinoceros. It does not know zigzag.
I feel like Beijing might have already entered a no-win phase in this situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Although I can't be too sure. And I have not been reading enough on the details.
We will know when the dam starts to break. It might be in the form of one arrest too many, one beating too many by the Hong Kong police. Or support protests in the other cities of the world. Or the protesters managing a complete shutdown of everything in Hong Kong, the airport, the stock exchange, everything.
While Beijing moves towards October 1 like an ostrich.
Chinese President Xi Jinping urges the ruling Communist Party to brace for a “long term” struggle against a variety of threats, including a more confrontational U.S. https://t.co/Ulw4gHcEGF
— Bloomberg (@business) September 3, 2019
Hong Kong And Beijing: The Water Will Break The Dam https://t.co/xvbNUbtMwK @realDonaldTrump @StephenBannon @NateSilver538 @SpeakerPelosi @SenSchumer @JenMetzgerNY @LiuNewYork @marcorubio @AndrewYang @narendramodi @ImranKhanPTI @BorisJohnson @EmmanuelMacron @Queen_Europe
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) September 3, 2019
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