Friday, May 10, 2019

India 2019: The Scenario Of A Federal Front Lead



Fasten your seat belts on D-Street: Major horse trading ahead post May 23 As per my assessment, the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties. ...... the post-poll scenario will be dictated by regional parties that will climb back to the pre-2014 situation with 223-225 seats. Regional parties belonging to the NDA will likely see a downdraft from 54 to 25-30 seats along with the declining vote and seat share of the BJP. ...... my estimate is that BJP’s tally will be around 170-180, down from 282 in 2014 and Congress’ may rise to 140-150, which will be phenomenal from 44 in 2014. At these levels, the Congress could be back to its 2004 tally of 145 when UPA-1 government came to power after overturning the ‘India Shining’ narrative of the Vajpayee-led NDA government. Hence, the NDA score could be around 210 seats, down from 336 in 2014 ....... a sub-200 tally for the BJP is a realistic projection, in my view, and this will restrict the NDA tally to around 200-220.

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