Brexit is easier to look at for Americans because the distance the pond offers gives you perspective. The trade war is Donald Trump attempting Brexit for America. Is it possible for the British economy to disengage from the larger European economy? It is the largest market in the world. Is it possible for the American economy to disengage from the Chinese economy? Just like Brexit seemed to have bipartisan support in London, looks like Trump's moves enjoy bipartisan support in Washington DC.
I think the short answer is the attempted disengagement is not possible. You can try and create a lot of political drama. But the disengagement will not happen. The supply chains of the world have become so enormously complex. Country A exports item M to Country B, which uses item M to produce item N which it exports to Country A, and that back and forth goes five times, six times, 10 times. How do you disengage?
50 years ago the Chinese read the Chinese newspapers, the Americans read the American newspapers. Today Donald Trump's facial expressions are transmitted in real time to all world as he makes small talk with Abe or Xi. And they get archived for anyone else to see on their own time. In this information-rich environment, you can bluff but you will get seen.
I don't believe Trump cares for the cause of democracy. His relentless verbal attacks on media in the US is a hint. He has openly asked for violence in the streets.
I believe he is a demagogue who misleads his people. He taps into the anger from the lost manufacturing base and channels blame on the Mexican and the Chinese. He does not have a solution. The trade war is just a bigger version of the border wall theatrics. He promised he will get those manufacturing jobs back and he wants to be seen trying. Look, I did try to build the wall. Look, I did put the pressure on the Chinese.
The smart thing to do would be to face the facts of the massive transition that is underway. Evidence-based decision making will lead to a realization this transition need not be painful and it can be good news.
The smart thing to do is to face the facts of climate change and inequality. Both are existential.
I think the short answer is the attempted disengagement is not possible. You can try and create a lot of political drama. But the disengagement will not happen. The supply chains of the world have become so enormously complex. Country A exports item M to Country B, which uses item M to produce item N which it exports to Country A, and that back and forth goes five times, six times, 10 times. How do you disengage?
50 years ago the Chinese read the Chinese newspapers, the Americans read the American newspapers. Today Donald Trump's facial expressions are transmitted in real time to all world as he makes small talk with Abe or Xi. And they get archived for anyone else to see on their own time. In this information-rich environment, you can bluff but you will get seen.
I don't believe Trump cares for the cause of democracy. His relentless verbal attacks on media in the US is a hint. He has openly asked for violence in the streets.
I believe he is a demagogue who misleads his people. He taps into the anger from the lost manufacturing base and channels blame on the Mexican and the Chinese. He does not have a solution. The trade war is just a bigger version of the border wall theatrics. He promised he will get those manufacturing jobs back and he wants to be seen trying. Look, I did try to build the wall. Look, I did put the pressure on the Chinese.
The smart thing to do would be to face the facts of the massive transition that is underway. Evidence-based decision making will lead to a realization this transition need not be painful and it can be good news.
The smart thing to do is to face the facts of climate change and inequality. Both are existential.
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